List Mgmt. 2025 List management

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Hmm that's fair, the trend was annoying.
I'm not worried about our '4th quarter fade-outs' in 2024 as an indicator of anything in 2025 because I think there is an obvious reason for them that is already passing.

There is a general view that older teams are fitter and therefore better able to run games out. I don't think that is the best explanation.

I think young, inexperienced teams go harder early. They are more excited and don't yet know instinctively how to best spread the laod over 4 quarters. Early on they run harder to chase, make position, create space, pressure etc. They are going at 95% whereas an older, more experienced opponent is only going at 85% to hang in there.

Come the 4th quarter the experienced lads can lift to 90% whereas the young team have spent their chips and fall back to 80-85%, that's all they can do. Hence the fade-out.

In 2025 will we be fitter? Marginally. Will we be more experienced? Significantly more so. We will still have a tendency to fade but I think far less so than 2024. Come 2026 and we will have the talent and team work to be rock solid go to whoa.
 
I prefer him upfront but can be a shock tactic.

We’re pretty sure what we’re getting from Treacy and Amiss.

I’d argue we can expect another 20 goals between them this year. Jai can do it easily with set shot accuracy improving just a tad. Josh is about to take a huge step forward. With Josh it’s about another three or four possessions. He can easily get 0.5 goals a game out of that with his accuracy.

What Bolton does is relegate Sturt and Freddy to almost off the board in terms of coaches worrying about them.

These are the two I’d be putting the acid on. Sturt in particular needs one more set shot a week and we have an extra 15 goals with his accuracy.

We need reward for midfield dominance
Hoping reward for midfield dominance is where Bolton will come in. I hear criticism that he’s a bit of a downhill skier; this is EXACTLY what the current side needs. Someone who can actually kick that goal when the team is on top would be a huge addition to the team. So many games last season I thought “oh geez, we’re gunna regret not taking advantage of being on top”…
 
Hoping reward for midfield dominance is where Bolton will come in. I hear criticism that he’s a bit of a downhill skier; this is EXACTLY what the current side needs. Someone who can actually kick that goal when the team is on top would be a huge addition to the team. So many games last season I thought “oh geez, we’re gunna regret not taking advantage of being on top”…
Forgetting the winnable last 4 games the 3 games that absolutely shit me are the Carlton game, the port game and the Hawks where we had it completely our way in the 3rd and could've gone in nearly 50 points up at 3 qtr time.

Bolton will go a long way to correcting this. You can never have to many damaging players up forward.
 

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I think he has not been 100% fit since like round 7-8.

Those early games playing as the number one ruck were a big problem for Jackson, such that by the time the Carlton game came along he was worked over.

Started the season against Brisbane with two contested marks, team high
Then against the Roos he was equal game high two contested marks
Game 3 against Adelaide is the first real brute of a ruck opponent in O'Brien who knows he has to beat Jackson in strength - no contested marks at all.
He had one contested mark against Carlton but we lost that stat 6-16. Totally destroyed.
No contested marks at all against Port and again we lost contested marks 7-13.
One contested mark against the Eagles with Darcy back, lost the stat 7-17.

If Luke Jackson can average two contested marks a game it will go a long way for us. But it would put him top five/six for the year for ruckmen & forwards for the year.

Contested marks are +100m plays in Taylor's book of footy, and considering that the first kick to about 30m out is allowed by opposition then we are one kick away from a scoring opportunity.

The other side is that when our talls can't compete to deny a contested mark to their opponent it's almost always within 80m of goal for them - so they are one kick from an inside fifty and scoring.

Losing Pearce meant we couldn't defend that kick.
Losing Darcy meant we couldn't defend the ruck taking that mark.
Losing Treacy meant we couldn't take our own and,
Jackson being cooked meant he couldn't defend and couldn't take the mark himself.

Draper isn't yet up to it, as of last season.
 
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Those early games playing as the number one ruck were a big problem for Jackson, such that by the time the Carlton game came along he was worked over.

Started the season against Brisbane with two contested marks, team high
Then against the Roos he was equal game high two contested marks
Game 3 against Adelaide is the first real brute of a ruck opponent in O'Brien who knows he has to beat Jackson in strength - no contested marks at all.
He had one contested mark against Carlton but we lost that stat 6-16. Totally destroyed.
No contested marks at all against Port and again we lost contested marks 7-13.
One contested mark against the Eagles with Darcy back, lost the stat 7-17.

If Luke Jackson can average two contested marks a game it will go a long way for us. But it would put him top five/six for the year for ruckmen & forwards for the year.

Contested marks are +100m plays in Taylor's book of footy, and considering that the first kick to about 30m out is allowed by opposition then we are one kick away from a scoring opportunity.

The other side is that when our talls can't compete to deny a contested mark to their opponent it's almost always within 80m of goal for them - so they are one kick from an inside fifty and scoring.

Losing Pearce meant we couldn't defend that kick.
Losing Darcy meant we couldn't defend the ruck taking that mark.
Losing Treacy meant we couldn't take our own and,
Jackson being cooked meant he couldn't defend and couldn't take the mark himself.

Draper isn't yet up to it, as of last season.

Draper has shown plenty of ability to take marks. His marks against Sydney were a strong part of the reason we won that game.

He may lack a little consistency at this early stage of his career however he has a very bright future.
 
Draper has shown plenty of ability to take marks. His marks against Sydney were a strong part of the reason we won that game.

He may lack a little consistency at this early stage of his career however he has a very bright future.

And his inability to hold his body position under the ball in the last month was a big reason why we lost those games.

He's going to be a gun, but he isn't yet.
 
One thing you can guarantee.
We will be doing everything to improve next year.
So will 17 other teams.
Nothing is a give.
Some teams are so far behind, their improvement won't impact us much. And some will be trying to improve and go backwards
 
For me, comparing the two lists as “best ever” is flawed if you don’t take avg age and avg games of the two lists into account.

In termof comparing lists…

For me, need to take avg age and avg games into account when comparing lists from different years.

2013 list was v much 9-10 o’clock where midnight is cinderella turns into a pumpkin … or something like that!

Current list more like 7 o’clock = a lot more time left on the clock to achieve greatness. So a better list.

List comparisons to me are more about looking at the individuals on the list, holes, and the balance of the list as a whole across positions and for now and into the future.

not about which list has achieved more -thats comparing teams, with so many more variables (coaching, leadership, quality of competitors that year, injuries, luck, team spirit etc).

List comparison based just a few considerations:
  • how many elite / a grade players are there? How many b grade and c (or d…) grade players on it?)
  • how many c or b grade players are coming thru with the potential to become elite?
  • how big are the list weaknesses / are there are gaping holes? How balanced is the list?
  • does the list have the physical strength and experience to match it with the big boys?

Of for those who prefer a single metric - how hard is it to select a B22 compared to previous years

For me, selecting a b22 from our current list is wayyyy harder than its ever been (- and the quality of the bottom 11 is wayyyy higher than its ever been!)

2025 gf, 2026 premiership👍🥳💪🎉
 

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So what’s the latest thoughts on Warner/Kozzie?

IMO it would be good to get Warner in this year. We have two firsts plus a 27 first available.

Warner nominates us and we use two firsts and look to bring in Whan and Hart for a second and third rounders which smoothed the cap.

Kozzie comes and of 2026 with only one year on the contract. And we take Robinson.

Profit?
 

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