20th AFL Team

[Angus Young]

SA has a powerhouse club in Norwood ready to hit the ground running. It would ultimately neatly divide support in SA into 1/3’s. The Port-Norwood rivalry would push the Showdown into second billing.
That’s the point of difference over WA3…the disadvantage of lesser population but with a club primed for the national stage.

Again, should of been Port and Norwood from the start.
Two biggest SA clubs in terms of supporters and long history and rivalry.

Then the Camry Crows 3rd license after that.

SA footy would be huge.

 

[Canberra Pear]

SA has a powerhouse club in Norwood ready to hit the ground running. It would ultimately neatly divide support in SA into 1/3’s.

Would it?

What's the current split? 55/45 to the Crows?

I can't imagine nearly a third of Port supporters, and 40% of Crows supporters, would peel off to Norwood.

Norwood would have the best bet of the SANFL teams, but I can't see them scooping up a third of support, and even if they could, a third of Adelaide isn't a big catchment.

I would've loved the Redlegs coming in in the '90s, but I think the ship has sailed.

 

[Coolangatta]

Again, should of been Port and Norwood from the start.
Two biggest SA clubs in terms of supporters and long history and rivalry.

Then the Camry Crows 3rd license after that.

SA footy would be huge.

Yep. If the 18 club comp we have now just had two less Vic clubs and three each from WA and SA it’d be a lot more national. Add Tasmania and Canberra to that and the competition would’ve been set for 30+ years.

 

[Bjo187]

I reckon the ideal is 1 million fans per club in each of the cities, so s.a is right, w.a under represented and Victoria over represented.
Other than smaller regional type places where you look at minimum 500k (Tasmania and ACT).

 

[RedV3x]

I reckon the ideal is 1 million fans per club in each of the cities, so s.a is right, w.a under represented and Victoria over represented.

I reckon the ideal is 0.5 million population catchment area for fans per club in each of the cities.

Other than smaller regional type places where you look at minimum 500k (Tasmania and ACT).

You can get away with less in passionate areas like Geelong and Tasmania.
You can get away with less if you're prepared to invest and wait.
Even with areas with greater than 500k, that only means it's technically possible with investment.

 

[Cam Payne]

I reckon the ideal is 0.5 million population catchment area for fans per club in each of the cities.



You can get away with less in passionate areas like Geelong and Tasmania.
You can get away with less if you're prepared to invest and wait.
Even with areas with greater than 500k, that only means it's technically possible with investment.

I'm a 0.5 million per team man myself. But having said that, if were to implement a 1 million per team policy we'd see a healthy reduction in Victorian teams. Good for the comp and makes absolute sense.

 

[RedV3x]

if were to implement a 1 million per team policy we'd see a healthy reduction in Victorian teams.

And a number of other AFL teams to boot.
No such thing as a "healthy reduction" when those teams contribute so much to the business of Australian Football.

 

[Fire]

I'm a 0.5 million per team man myself. But having said that, if were to implement a 1 million per team policy we'd see a healthy reduction in Victorian teams. Good for the comp and makes absolute sense.

It would mean one of Port or the Crows are gone. And no third Perth side.

Population is only one metric to viability. To focus so obsessively on it shows a pretty ignorant mind.

 

[Coolangatta]

I'm a 0.5 million per team man myself. But having said that, if were to implement a 1 million per team policy we'd see a healthy reduction in Victorian teams. Good for the comp and makes absolute sense.

Would this be permanently 500k or go up in the future?

If not, then eventually the greater Darwin and Cairns areas could have teams if they hit around 500k, earlier with funding provided.

But that would be a long time away and climate has to be factored in.

Tassie and Canberra definitely the next two viable destinations.

 

[RedV3x]

Would this be permanently 500k or go up in the future?

It's only a guide and relative over time.

 

[Run n Spread]

I reckon the ideal is 1 million fans per club in each of the cities, so s.a is right, w.a under represented and Victoria over represented.
Other than smaller regional type places where you look at minimum 500k (Tasmania and ACT).

There is not even 1 million fans in nsw let alone per club in each state

 

[Run n Spread]

I'm a 0.5 million per team man myself. But having said that, if were to implement a 1 million per team policy we'd see a healthy reduction in Victorian teams. Good for the comp and makes absolute sense.

If it's going to be 20 teams and 500k rusted on for each team than Tas and NT are the obvious choice. No question. No sense pissing about with Canberra.
The whole state/terr/northern Australia gets behind them in an instant. Not to mention the economic benefits. And expansion and population explosion. Possibilities are endless

 

[Fire]

If it's going to be 20 teams and 500k rusted on for each team than Tas and NT are the obvious choice. No question. No sense pissing about with Canberra.
The whole state/terr/northern Australia gets behind them in an instant. Not to mention the economic benefits. And expansion and population explosion. Possibilities are endless

How does the NT get to 500k? It's pretty much exactly half that, with only half that number being withing a European country's drive.

I have heard ideas floated about including FNQ into the mix, but even then you are only barely reaching 500k with a population so dispersed, and with no uniting identity, that it is just nonsense.

I would love to see an NT team, but it would need to be a government initiative.

 

[Canberra Pear]

If it's going to be 20 teams and 500k rusted on for each team than Tas and NT are the obvious choice. No question. No sense pissing about with Canberra.
The whole state/terr/northern Australia gets behind them in an instant. Not to mention the economic benefits. And expansion and

I mean this with all due respect, but have you actually looked at the demographics of Canberra and the NT?

Greater Canberra is double the population of the NT and quadruple the population of Darwin (which is where you'd base the team).

Yes, AFL is more popular per capita in the NT, but Canberra already has more fans. And way more when you compare it to just Darwin.

population explosion. Possibilities are endless

The NT is expected to grow by about 20% by 2050, the ACT is expected to grow by 60% in that time.

 

[Coolangatta]

We’d all love to see it in our lifetimes, but the smart thing to do is see if the greater Darwin region can grow to 400k plus.

Is that ever going to happen? Maybe not, and certainly not in the next 50 years.

It means none of us will ever see an NT team but that’s selfish thinking.

Let the population grow, chuck in government support, and it’s more likely to succeed.

Also, the top end might be uninhabitable by then. No point putting a team in Darwin in 10 years time if they’re going to end up in a population decline.

 

[Run n Spread]

I mean this with all due respect, but have you actually looked at the demographics of Canberra and the NT?

Greater Canberra is double the population of the NT and quadruple the population of Darwin (which is where you'd base the team).

Yes, AFL is more popular per capita in the NT, but Canberra already has more fans. And way more when you compare it to just Darwin.



The NT is expected to grow by about 20% by 2050, the ACT is expected to grow by 60% in that time.

You can't just look at demographics in terms of population. By that metric GWS should be a raving success and not a white elephant barely scraping by.
By any measure a country like Sudan should have a major basketball and multiple pro.sports league as they have the most naturally tallest and athletic people on the planet (the reason they obviously don't is they can't fund it due to various circumstances)
Point being is who funds AFL? Which is the most successful per capita league in the world and bounced back 10 fold since covid. It is corporate sponsorship off the back of massive tribal interest from fans particularly in footy states. This generates eyeballs which generates investment and funds which enables players to earn shiploads further increasing professionalism and standards. Even the sport itself is an economic driver.
The NT and North Australia has that tribal element and the funds to sponsor and drive it. Another ACT /GWS white elephant is not needed. A team 20 has to be a driver and contributor not be funded GC GWS style for the qld/Sydney TV market.

 

[Coolangatta]

You can't just look at demographics in terms of population. By that metric GWS should be a raving success and not a white elephant barely scraping by.
By any measure a country like Sudan should have a major basketball and multiple pro.sports league as they have the most naturally tallest and athletic people on the planet (the reason they obviously don't is they can't fund it due to various circumstances)
Point being is who funds AFL? Which is the most successful per capita league in the world and bounced back 10 fold since covid. It is corporate sponsorship off the back of massive tribal interest from fans particularly in footy states. This generates eyeballs which generates investment and funds which enables players to earn shiploads further increasing professionalism and standards. Even the sport itself is an economic driver.
The NT and North Australia has that tribal element and the funds to sponsor and drive it. Another ACT /GWS white elephant is not needed. A team 20 has to be a driver and contributor not be funded GC GWS style for the qld/Sydney TV market.

And Canberra doesn’t? It’s a wealthy city mate. And they aren’t a white elephant, ACT actually gives a shit about footy.

Western Sydney will take time to grow interest.

As for NT/NQ, yes there’s interest there but their markets are so tiny and sparse that there’s no real financial incentive to do it.

I’m all for small niche viable clubs that increase the national footprint of the game. It shouldn’t just be about TV ratings. But we aren’t talking about small markets yet up north, they’re microscopic.

 

[Bjo187]

There is not even 1 million fans in nsw let alone per club in each state

I mean 1 million potential fans, obviously barely any clubs have 1 million fans in any state.

If it's going to be 20 teams and 500k rusted on for each team than Tas and NT are the obvious choice. No question. No sense pissing about with Canberra.
The whole state/terr/northern Australia gets behind them in an instant. Not to mention the economic benefits. And expansion and population explosion. Possibilities are endless

This is one of the more uninformed posts I've seen on here. N.T big population over 500k and the pending population explosion and the possibilities are endless?

 

[Canberra Pear]

You can't just look at demographics in terms of population. By that metric GWS should be a raving success and not a white elephant barely scraping by.

Demographics aren't everything, but they're not something you can so flippantly ignore either.

The Giants are already more financially viable than the NT could be. The AFL NT's own scoping report said they'd be 60% more expensive than the Giants.

The Giants are only getting 0.005% of Western Sydney to their games, but it's the equivalent of 9% of Darwin rocking up every fortnight. That's just not sustainable.

The NT and North Australia has that tribal element and the funds to sponsor and drive it. Another ACT /GWS white elephant is not needed. A team 20 has to be a driver and contributor not be funded GC GWS style for the qld/Sydney TV market.

The irony of you thinking the NT would be a contributor, but Canberra wouldn't.

 

[RedV3x]

You can't just look at demographics in terms of population.

You can't just look at demographics in terms of population alone.

By that metric GWS should be a raving success and not a white elephant barely scraping by.

GWS is a success by NRL standards.

By any measure a country like Sudan should have a major basketball and multiple pro.sports league

Why not AFL ?

The NT and North Australia has that tribal element and the funds to sponsor and drive it.

I'd like to see (the details of)that,
but why do refer to N.T and not Darwin.
Darwin has a population of 132,000 so to get a crowd of 13k. you'd need 10% of the population attending.

Another ACT /GWS white elephant is not needed.

How is the GWS a white elephant when it was funded by the increase in media rights ?

A team 20 has to be a driver and contributor not be funded GC GWS style for the qld/Sydney TV market.

So what location has the facilities, the attendees, the participation, the ready-made local product for AFL

 

[Walshawk]

You can't just look at demographics in terms of population. By that metric GWS should be a raving success and not a white elephant barely scraping by.
By any measure a country like Sudan should have a major basketball and multiple pro.sports league as they have the most naturally tallest and athletic people on the planet (the reason they obviously don't is they can't fund it due to various circumstances)
Point being is who funds AFL? Which is the most successful per capita league in the world and bounced back 10 fold since covid. It is corporate sponsorship off the back of massive tribal interest from fans particularly in footy states. This generates eyeballs which generates investment and funds which enables players to earn shiploads further increasing professionalism and standards. Even the sport itself is an economic driver.
The NT and North Australia has that tribal element and the funds to sponsor and drive it. Another ACT /GWS white elephant is not needed. A team 20 has to be a driver and contributor not be funded GC GWS style for the qld/Sydney TV market.

What do you mean by “North Australia”. And what makes you think that is has a tribal element?

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Might not be AFL-related but NRL expansion news none the less that could have implications on AFL's 20th team:

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/nrl/nrl-reject-western-bears-as-bombshell-breaks-fans-hearts-all-over-again/news-story/7ae094df62accf6c4ea9e6765a73fbd5

ARL Commission boss Peter V’landys has dropped an expansion bombshell by formally rejecting the Western Bears’ bid.

It comes as the NRL considers a bold move to own and operate their own expansion team based in Western Australia.

The NRL’s expansion plans are in tatters with the Western Bears’ bid to enter the big league in 2027 on life support after having their application knocked back by the ARL Commission with specific concerns surrounding a multimillion-dollar licence fee.

It is a stunning development in the battle for the 18th licence and has huge ramifications for the Western Bears, who now face urgent talks with V’landys to save their bid from total collapse.

The Western Bears are an amalgamation of a Perth consortium and North Sydney as part of a bid supported by the West Australian government.

But V’landys said the bid may not proceed unless major changes are made which has officially failed at this stage.

It is understood the bid document was comprehensive but fell short on the NRL’s financial requirements.

“The bid that the consortium has put in has been rejected,” he said.

“We will still deal with the Western Australian government to try and resuscitate the bid.

“The bid that they put in was significantly short.

“No bid team can take the expansion process for granted.

“I have made this clear from day one.

“We will only expand if there is a firm business case and at the moment Perth’s business case doesn’t stack up.

“If we can’t stack it up I can’t take it to the members for consideration.

“All I will say their bid is extremely short. I will have more talks with the WA government, but not necessarily the current consortium.”

If the NRL do push ahead with a Perth side they still want to retain the Bears moniker.

The NRL informed WA government officials that all was not well during Sunday’s grand final.

Despite the obvious setback, Western Australia Premier Roger Cook is still calling on the NRL to have a top flight rugby league side based in Perth for the first time since 1997.

“Western Australia is the obvious choice for a new team, and the NRL knows WA is a great option for the league’s expansion,” Cook said. “They know WA is a clear market for the NRL, we offer significant broadcasting opportunities that are unmatched by the other bids and a Perth team would be ready to go for the 2027 season.

“The State Government isn’t involved in the consortium’s private bid. However, we have a supporting role and have expressed our willingness to work with the NRL on things like delivering top-tier grounds and high-performance facilities, an expansion of our successful nation-leading player development program in schools, and support to deliver pre-season fixtures in regional WA to help build a brand and get the community behind the club.

“Western Australians have shown extraordinary support for NRL in WA in recent years. I encourage fans to keep showing their support for the league and make it impossible to ignore the momentum we’re seeing here in the west.”

While the WA bid is on the verge of imploding, the NRL’s push to include PNG into the competition looms increasingly likely.

Marape said PNG were closing in on entry into the NRL.

“I am happy with the progress so far,” Marape said. “I commend the strong support we are receiving from the Australian Cabinet, as well as the majority of parliament, including members of the opposition. We also acknowledge the substantial financial and administrative backing of the Australian Government.

“There are a few more regulatory processes to complete before an official announcement can be made, but the future is looking bright for our national team.

“This aspiration is not just about sports — it’s about fostering national development and unity. “With over 10 million passionate supporters, a PNG NRL team would further strengthen the bonds between our two nations.”

 

[Fire]

Might not be AFL-related but NRL expansion news none the less that could have implications on AFL's 20th team:

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/nrl/nrl-reject-western-bears-as-bombshell-breaks-fans-hearts-all-over-again/news-story/7ae094df62accf6c4ea9e6765a73fbd5

ARL Commission boss Peter V’landys has dropped an expansion bombshell by formally rejecting the Western Bears’ bid.

It comes as the NRL considers a bold move to own and operate their own expansion team based in Western Australia.

The NRL’s expansion plans are in tatters with the Western Bears’ bid to enter the big league in 2027 on life support after having their application knocked back by the ARL Commission with specific concerns surrounding a multimillion-dollar licence fee.

It is a stunning development in the battle for the 18th licence and has huge ramifications for the Western Bears, who now face urgent talks with V’landys to save their bid from total collapse.

The Western Bears are an amalgamation of a Perth consortium and North Sydney as part of a bid supported by the West Australian government.

But V’landys said the bid may not proceed unless major changes are made which has officially failed at this stage.

It is understood the bid document was comprehensive but fell short on the NRL’s financial requirements.

“The bid that the consortium has put in has been rejected,” he said.

“We will still deal with the Western Australian government to try and resuscitate the bid.

“The bid that they put in was significantly short.

“No bid team can take the expansion process for granted.

“I have made this clear from day one.

“We will only expand if there is a firm business case and at the moment Perth’s business case doesn’t stack up.

“If we can’t stack it up I can’t take it to the members for consideration.

“All I will say their bid is extremely short. I will have more talks with the WA government, but not necessarily the current consortium.”

If the NRL do push ahead with a Perth side they still want to retain the Bears moniker.

The NRL informed WA government officials that all was not well during Sunday’s grand final.

Despite the obvious setback, Western Australia Premier Roger Cook is still calling on the NRL to have a top flight rugby league side based in Perth for the first time since 1997.

“Western Australia is the obvious choice for a new team, and the NRL knows WA is a great option for the league’s expansion,” Cook said. “They know WA is a clear market for the NRL, we offer significant broadcasting opportunities that are unmatched by the other bids and a Perth team would be ready to go for the 2027 season.

“The State Government isn’t involved in the consortium’s private bid. However, we have a supporting role and have expressed our willingness to work with the NRL on things like delivering top-tier grounds and high-performance facilities, an expansion of our successful nation-leading player development program in schools, and support to deliver pre-season fixtures in regional WA to help build a brand and get the community behind the club.

“Western Australians have shown extraordinary support for NRL in WA in recent years. I encourage fans to keep showing their support for the league and make it impossible to ignore the momentum we’re seeing here in the west.”

While the WA bid is on the verge of imploding, the NRL’s push to include PNG into the competition looms increasingly likely.

Marape said PNG were closing in on entry into the NRL.

“I am happy with the progress so far,” Marape said. “I commend the strong support we are receiving from the Australian Cabinet, as well as the majority of parliament, including members of the opposition. We also acknowledge the substantial financial and administrative backing of the Australian Government.

“There are a few more regulatory processes to complete before an official announcement can be made, but the future is looking bright for our national team.

“This aspiration is not just about sports — it’s about fostering national development and unity. “With over 10 million passionate supporters, a PNG NRL team would further strengthen the bonds between our two nations.”

19th team? I thought they were looking for their 18th.


Regardless, I don't really see how this would effect the AFL. The NRL putting a team in Perth would have no baring on the viability of a third AFL team. Like in Melbourne, NRL support won't come at the cost of AFL. Pretty much every potential Perth NRL fan would also have an AFL club. So what they do is largely irrelevant.

However, I would love to see the AFL offer the bears a license after this xD

 

[Run n Spread]

What do you mean by “North Australia”. And what makes you think that is has a tribal element?

Anything north of the tropic of Capricorn. (Major cities to base home games Darwin/Cairns split. Possible Townsville)
Passionate sense of identity and a will to support their area. Core element to support a team.
Think how Tassie is passionate and this drive lead to a team. WA footy the same.

 

[Badger17]

19th team? I thought they were looking for their 18th.

The NRL's current expansion is a farce.

PNG is a fait accompli, so there's your 18th team.

19th and 20th will go to some combination of the Bears, NZ, and Brisbane.

The investors in Perth have dodged a bullet, as the NRL were only considering them as a lubricant necessary to get the Bears back into the league. They may not realise it, but being taken out of the picture has saved them millions of dollars and years of heartache, and it allows the NRL to bring the Bears back without facing any resistance from locals.