20th AFL Team

[Cubs2Lions]

Still can't believe people are putting a third SA team above Canberra for Team 20.

I'm still waiting for my South Adelaide Panthers to join the big dance of the AFL, let me call up my friend Tigerlaird to tell you all about why the Mighty Panthers should be a part of the competition

Besides my obvious bias showing, Canberra outweighs the long-term benefits of another SA team joining the competition by far and hopefully once that deal is finished between GWS, the ACT government decides to use that money appropriately on a new club cause it would do wonders over there for the community.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

GWS playing games in Canberra is a big obsticle to Canberra getting it's own team, and yes i knoe the deal is meant to end in 2034 i think I have a feeling it will be renewed again and if it is they will kill any hopes of Canberra getting their own team.

Funnily enough, the AFL have been adament that there won't be a 20th team straight after Tasmania's first season so maybe they are prepared to wait until that deal is completed before Canberra plays their first match, which could mean a 6-7 year gap between going from 19 to 20 teams.

Agree though that if both parties on renewing the existing deal past 2034, it would kill any chance of Canberra and the ACT region having their own team, which would be a massive shame.

 

[Coolangatta]

Funnily enough, the AFL have been adament that there won't be a 20th team straight after Tasmania's first season so maybe they are prepared to wait until that deal is completed before Canberra plays their first match, which could mean a 6-7 year gap between going from 19 to 20 teams.

Agree though that if both parties on renewing the existing deal past 2034, it would kill any chance of Canberra and the ACT region having their own team, which would be a massive shame.

My bet is Canberra comes in by 2033 and GWS see out their contract until 2032.

 

[Walshawk]

Funnily enough, the AFL have been adament that there won't be a 20th team straight after Tasmania's first season so maybe they are prepared to wait until that deal is completed before Canberra plays their first match, which could mean a 6-7 year gap between going from 19 to 20 teams.

Agree though that if both parties on renewing the existing deal past 2034, it would kill any chance of Canberra and the ACT region having their own team, which would be a massive shame.

The AFL will likely have a look at the new stadium, returns, crowds, ratings, etc, before deciding on if and where to add a 20th team. I reckon a decision in 2030 and a team around 2035. If Canberra get a BBL team and upgraded Manuka, the AFL will look at that as well. A new Canberra team would assume any contract with the Giants. That is not an issue.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

My bet is Canberra comes in by 2033 and GWS see out their contract until 2032.

The AFL will likely have a look at the new stadium, returns, crowds, ratings, etc, before deciding on if and where to add a 20th team. I reckon a decision in 2030 and a team around 2035. If Canberra get a BBL team and upgraded Manuka, the AFL will look at that as well. A new Canberra team would assume any contract with the Giants. That is not an issue.

The other benefit that would have to see out the GWS-ACT deal before Canberra gets their own license in 2033 would be the club can spend a couple of years in the lower leagues first (U18s / VFL) while getting the club's resources ready before joining the AFL such as the model below:

2030 - Unders 16 / 18s

2031 - Under 16 / 18s & VFL

2032 - Under 16 / 18s & VFL

2033 - Under 16 / 18s, VFL & AFL

 

[JPetro83]

Still can't believe people are putting a third SA team above Canberra for Team 20.

Question, lets say Norwood or a 3rd WA side are the 20th team.. how many on average would go to a home?
How many would go to see Canberra play at a home game?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Question, lets say Norwood or a 3rd WA side are the 20th team.. how many on average would go to a home?
How many would go to see Canberra play at a home game?

Excluding derbies, I'd say just under 20k for Canberra (capacity allowing) and Norwood, and a bit over 20k for WA3.

Difference is 20k at Manuka would be a great atmosphere and money maker, while it'd be pretty empty at Adelaide Oval or Optus.

 

[JPetro83]

Excluding derbies, I'd say just under 20k for Canberra (capacity allowing) and Norwood, and a bit over 20k for WA3.

Difference is 20k at Manuka would be a great atmosphere and money maker, while it'd be pretty empty at Adelaide Oval or Optus.

Norwood could play at a developed Parade? get the capacity up to 30k

 

[Canberra Pear]

Norwood could play at a developed Parade? get the capacity up to 30k

Then it suddenly doesn't become such an easy bid.

It's also surrounded by houses and it's up against a road. Not really much room to expand.

 

[RedV3x]

Still can't believe people are putting a third SA team above Canberra for Team 20.

Yes, Canberra is a "new" market.
The potential development is quite predictable.
If some entity were to get behind a Canberra push then it would be a lay-down-misere.

P.S. I don't see a problem with the GWS contract.

 

[Purple Suit]

Excluding derbies, I'd say just under 20k for Canberra (capacity allowing) and Norwood, and a bit over 20k for WA3.

Difference is 20k at Manuka would be a great atmosphere and money maker, while it'd be pretty empty at Adelaide Oval or Optus.

Freo averaged 24k in 1995 when the population was half the size & stadium 50% smaller.

WA3 would get over 30k pa just from a novelty in the first season. 2 home games will be 55k each. Especially if they played home on a weekend by themselves & double up Freo & WC on the same weekend.

 

[Bjo187]

An interesting video on ABC yesterday, more than anything showing what a disaster an N.T AFL team would be.

Growing push for Northern Territory to join AFL

Follow the latest news headlines from Australia's most trusted source. Read in-depth expert analysis and watch live coverage on ABC News.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Canberra Pear]

Freo averaged 24k in 1995 when the population was half the size & stadium 50% smaller.

WA3 would get over 30k pa just from a novelty in the first season. 2 home games will be 55k each. Especially if they played home on a weekend by themselves & double up Freo & WC on the same weekend.

But a third Perth team is going to be less popular than Freo was.

We don't have a lot of examples, because it doesn't happen that often, but Macarthur and Western United are the only high profile "third teams" I can think of, and neither have gone as well as they expected.

Second teams, the Wanderers and even Melbourne City/Heart, did relatively well from the beginning. They're a great comparison for Freo. Bringing in the sorely needed crosstown rival.

But the third teams aren't even reaching crowds half those of the second teams. They've been disappointments.

Using Freo isn't a good comparison of what to expect for a third team.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

But a third Perth team is going to be less popular than Freo was.

We don't have a lot of examples, because it doesn't happen that often, but Macarthur and Western United are the only high profile "third teams" I can think of, and neither have gone as well as they expected.

Second teams, the Wanderers and even Melbourne City/Heart, did relatively well from the beginning. They're a great comparison for Freo. Bringing in the sorely needed crosstown rival.

But the third teams aren't even reaching crowds half those of the second teams. They've been disappointments.

Using Freo isn't a good comparison of what to expect for a third team.

The A-League made such a massive blunder in choosing Western United and Macarthur to join the competition as there were many more better options out there like Tasmania, Canberra, Wollongong and Gold Coast.

Reckon the only reason the AFL maybe wants WA3 to happen as the 20th team is to kill off all momentum that an NRL team would have going from there initially when they enter the competition in 2027 or 2028.

In saying all that though, still think WA3 will become the 21st team by 2050, once Tasmania and hopefully Canberra gain entry into the competition in 5-10 years.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The A-League made such a massive blunder in choosing Western United and Macarthur to join the competition as there were many more better options out there like Tasmania, Canberra, Wollongong and Gold Coast.

Reckon the only reason the AFL maybe wants WA3 to happen as the 20th team is to kill off all momentum that an NRL team would have going from there initially when they enter the competition in 2027 or 2028.

In saying all that though, still think WA3 will become the 21st team by 2050, once Tasmania and hopefully Canberra gain entry into the competition in 5-10 years.

The AFL would want a third team in Perth because basic population growth suggests it, as well as to reinforce the general love of the AFL in that otherwise AFL-loving individuals may drift away from the league because of the inability to access game tickets and/or the time zone/distance reasons make them feel somewhat removed from the league's games going on outside Perth. There's also investment reasons - there's fair arguments that Perth's love of the sport, while still by far the primary code of preference, the city loves the sport slightly less than SA, Vic and Tas.

They wouldn't care about NRL (only really in the context that an NRL may not be an AFL fan, but they wouldn't treat an NRL fan to any non-AFL fan that could be convinced to support the AFL).

Perth's population in 1997 was 1.35 million. Adelaide's in 1997 was 1.18 million. Adelaide's population is now 1.45 million. Perht's population is now 2.2 million.

I don't disagree branding distinctions and the geographical location that they will base their training and facilities (and by extension which region that they will primarily represent and play reserves/women's games in) has to be found and there isn't an obvious answer, but it makes sense to try and work through it.