20th AFL Team

[Walshawk]

I don't think Brisbane2 is a legitimate option that's being considered right now. I was more so commenting on my belief that what's best for footy in Queensland is to eventually get to a point where we have AFL games being played in the Brisbane market every week, just like every other major capital city in Australia currently has. Population growth shows Queensland is only going to become more appealing as we go forward and it would also reduce the travel factor for the QLD teams to give them a better chance of being competitive long-term. You need competitive teams within a market to grow the game e.g. look at the growth in attendance/memberships in Brisbane since the Lions have been legitimate flag contenders over the last 5-6 years. Plus, we can't just solely rely on the Lions forever - they will eventually drop off. Having a second team to cover that drop off period should minimise the risk of what we saw between 2010-2018.

At this point I doubt the 20th team will be based in Brisbane, but that will really come down to when they make a decision on it. The AFL doesn't seem overly keen to start two new teams at the same time from what I can see. Perhaps they learned their lesson from the GC-GWS experience. So the next bout of expansion might occur around 2032ish? By then the Olympic infrastructure will be built and there should be a brand new stadium in Brisbane. So perhaps the Queensland government will be more motivated to have new facilities used and weekly AFL games taking place at the new stadium.

I also doubt we'll get to a point where a Melbourne-based team are legitimately considering relocation in the next 10-15 years. I can't see any of them allowing another Fitzroy situation to occur. So if the options for a 20th franchise are Canberra, Darwin & Brisbane2 and they would enter the league around 2032 then I think Brisbane would be a good chance to win that race. Perth3 could throw a spanner in the works, though.

It wouldn’t make sense to have three teams on SEQ and only two in Perth.

If they want more games in the new stadium from 2033, the logical step is for the Suns to play two games there, rather than in Darwin.

 

[Run n Spread]

According to the centre of population studies the projected fas % growth of Australian cities is remarkably similar. Caps only at about 1.3-1.5% a year.
The outlier is the regions including Canberra which is half as much at 0.7%.
Second lowest is Adelaide.
Now when growing the game any business will tell you you need latent demand and the capacity to grow from there.
It's why Tassie is team 19 it will explode over night and continue to build on those strong foundations and grow at a sustainable pace.
Hell even any builder will tell you you need a stable base.
The NT is simply thus the most obvious choice. Predicted growth the same as any state footy mad and the most growth potential.
For all the talk of Sydney GWS population base will leak to central Sydney and shrink and it has a lack of interest.
AFL can't afford a sinking ship again
It's Northern Australia based in Darwin all the way

 

[Canberra Pear]

According to the centre of population studies the projected fas % growth of Australian cities is remarkably similar. Caps only at about 1.3-1.5% a year.
The outlier is the regions including Canberra which is half as much at 0.7%.
Second lowest is Adelaide.
Now when growing the game any business will tell you you need latent demand and the capacity to grow from there.
It's why Tassie is team 19 it will explode over night and continue to build on those strong foundations and grow at a sustainable pace.
Hell even any builder will tell you you need a stable base.
The NT is simply thus the most obvious choice. Predicted growth the same as any state footy mad and the most growth potential.
For all the talk of Sydney GWS population base will leak to central Sydney and shrink and it has a lack of interest.

Do you have any links to that?

Because this ABS link says the ACT grew at 1.7% over FY2023/24, while the NT grew 0.8%.

AFL can't afford a sinking ship again
It's Northern Australia based in Darwin all the way

The irony of those two sentences one after the other.

 

[Run n Spread]

Are people just assuming Newcastle is a good idea because of the 500k+ population and the fact that it's the largest city in Australia that doesn't already have an AFL team? I think the similarly sized Canberra and Sunshine Coast markets are far better suited to AFL expansion than the hardcore rugby league town of Newcastle. Simply being slightly larger in population doesn't necessarily mean it's a better option for expansion when compared to places that have a decent Aussie rules following like Canberra and the Sunny Coast.

It's exactly the reason
Same reason people look at Canberra and why GC and GWS were 17 and 18.
No understanding of the sport and its cultural intricacies and significance. No vision.
Just a marketing team reading statistics and most people here fall for it hook line and sinker

 

[threenewpadlocks]

According to the centre of population studies the projected fas % growth of Australian cities is remarkably similar. Caps only at about 1.3-1.5% a year.
The outlier is the regions including Canberra which is half as much at 0.7%.
Second lowest is Adelaide.
Now when growing the game any business will tell you you need latent demand and the capacity to grow from there.
It's why Tassie is team 19 it will explode over night and continue to build on those strong foundations and grow at a sustainable pace.
Hell even any builder will tell you you need a stable base.
The NT is simply thus the most obvious choice. Predicted growth the same as any state footy mad and the most growth potential.
For all the talk of Sydney GWS population base will leak to central Sydney and shrink and it has a lack of interest.
AFL can't afford a sinking ship again
It's Northern Australia based in Darwin all the way

Identical percentages on a higher base grow bigger in absolute terms

 

[Canberra Pear]

It's exactly the reason
Same reason people look at Canberra and why GC and GWS were 17 and 18. No understanding of the sport and its cultural intricacies and significance. No vision.
Just a marketing team reading statistics and most people here fall for it hook line and sinker

I'm not denying the NT is more culturally linked to footy than Canberra, but footy is culturally significant to Canberra as well.

We've produced a lot of greats and are intrinsically linked to the game. The NT doesn't hold the monopoly on links to footy.

 

[Run n Spread]

I'm not denying the NT is more culturally linked to footy than Canberra, but footy is culturally significant to Canberra as well.

We've produced a lot of greats and are intrinsically linked to the game. The NT doesn't hold the monopoly on links to footy.

While that's true.
The NTs passion about the sport is miles ahead

 

[Canberra Pear]

While that's true.
The NTs passion about the sport is miles ahead

Once again, never denied that, but you need both passion and the demographics.

You need the balance of both. Canberra has both. The NT does not.

 

[Purple Suit]

Identical percentages on a higher base grow bigger in absolute terms

Exactly,
Who cares about a tiny difference in % growth if the base is significantly better in one area.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

While that's true.
The NTs passion about the sport is miles ahead

Which is untrue too because Darwin is less of a footy town than Hobart, Adelaide, Perth and Melbourne. It's more like 70/30 AFL/NRL (further harming its already small population), especially as plenty of people have moved there from Rugby territories.

 

[Run n Spread]

Which is untrue too because Darwin is less of a footy town than Hobart, Adelaide, Perth and Melbourne. It's more like 70/30 AFL/NRL (further harming its already small population), especially as plenty of people have moved there from Rugby territories.

Melbourne is the city that's growing exponentially literally 300000 a year. Is anyone suggesting an 11th team?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Exactly,
Who cares about a tiny difference in % growth if the base is significantly better in one area.

Exactly.

As I said early, last year the NT grew 0.8% and the ACT grew 1.7%, but even of that were reversed, it would take Darwin 139 years to overtake the ACT's population.