20th AFL Team

[Walshawk]

I don't think Brisbane2 is a legitimate option that's being considered right now. I was more so commenting on my belief that what's best for footy in Queensland is to eventually get to a point where we have AFL games being played in the Brisbane market every week, just like every other major capital city in Australia currently has. Population growth shows Queensland is only going to become more appealing as we go forward and it would also reduce the travel factor for the QLD teams to give them a better chance of being competitive long-term. You need competitive teams within a market to grow the game e.g. look at the growth in attendance/memberships in Brisbane since the Lions have been legitimate flag contenders over the last 5-6 years. Plus, we can't just solely rely on the Lions forever - they will eventually drop off. Having a second team to cover that drop off period should minimise the risk of what we saw between 2010-2018.

At this point I doubt the 20th team will be based in Brisbane, but that will really come down to when they make a decision on it. The AFL doesn't seem overly keen to start two new teams at the same time from what I can see. Perhaps they learned their lesson from the GC-GWS experience. So the next bout of expansion might occur around 2032ish? By then the Olympic infrastructure will be built and there should be a brand new stadium in Brisbane. So perhaps the Queensland government will be more motivated to have new facilities used and weekly AFL games taking place at the new stadium.

I also doubt we'll get to a point where a Melbourne-based team are legitimately considering relocation in the next 10-15 years. I can't see any of them allowing another Fitzroy situation to occur. So if the options for a 20th franchise are Canberra, Darwin & Brisbane2 and they would enter the league around 2032 then I think Brisbane would be a good chance to win that race. Perth3 could throw a spanner in the works, though.

It wouldn’t make sense to have three teams on SEQ and only two in Perth.

If they want more games in the new stadium from 2033, the logical step is for the Suns to play two games there, rather than in Darwin.

 

[Run n Spread]

According to the centre of population studies the projected fas % growth of Australian cities is remarkably similar. Caps only at about 1.3-1.5% a year.
The outlier is the regions including Canberra which is half as much at 0.7%.
Second lowest is Adelaide.
Now when growing the game any business will tell you you need latent demand and the capacity to grow from there.
It's why Tassie is team 19 it will explode over night and continue to build on those strong foundations and grow at a sustainable pace.
Hell even any builder will tell you you need a stable base.
The NT is simply thus the most obvious choice. Predicted growth the same as any state footy mad and the most growth potential.
For all the talk of Sydney GWS population base will leak to central Sydney and shrink and it has a lack of interest.
AFL can't afford a sinking ship again
It's Northern Australia based in Darwin all the way

 

[Canberra Pear]

According to the centre of population studies the projected fas % growth of Australian cities is remarkably similar. Caps only at about 1.3-1.5% a year.
The outlier is the regions including Canberra which is half as much at 0.7%.
Second lowest is Adelaide.
Now when growing the game any business will tell you you need latent demand and the capacity to grow from there.
It's why Tassie is team 19 it will explode over night and continue to build on those strong foundations and grow at a sustainable pace.
Hell even any builder will tell you you need a stable base.
The NT is simply thus the most obvious choice. Predicted growth the same as any state footy mad and the most growth potential.
For all the talk of Sydney GWS population base will leak to central Sydney and shrink and it has a lack of interest.

Do you have any links to that?

Because this ABS link says the ACT grew at 1.7% over FY2023/24, while the NT grew 0.8%.

AFL can't afford a sinking ship again
It's Northern Australia based in Darwin all the way

The irony of those two sentences one after the other.

 

[Run n Spread]

Are people just assuming Newcastle is a good idea because of the 500k+ population and the fact that it's the largest city in Australia that doesn't already have an AFL team? I think the similarly sized Canberra and Sunshine Coast markets are far better suited to AFL expansion than the hardcore rugby league town of Newcastle. Simply being slightly larger in population doesn't necessarily mean it's a better option for expansion when compared to places that have a decent Aussie rules following like Canberra and the Sunny Coast.

It's exactly the reason
Same reason people look at Canberra and why GC and GWS were 17 and 18.
No understanding of the sport and its cultural intricacies and significance. No vision.
Just a marketing team reading statistics and most people here fall for it hook line and sinker

 

[threenewpadlocks]

According to the centre of population studies the projected fas % growth of Australian cities is remarkably similar. Caps only at about 1.3-1.5% a year.
The outlier is the regions including Canberra which is half as much at 0.7%.
Second lowest is Adelaide.
Now when growing the game any business will tell you you need latent demand and the capacity to grow from there.
It's why Tassie is team 19 it will explode over night and continue to build on those strong foundations and grow at a sustainable pace.
Hell even any builder will tell you you need a stable base.
The NT is simply thus the most obvious choice. Predicted growth the same as any state footy mad and the most growth potential.
For all the talk of Sydney GWS population base will leak to central Sydney and shrink and it has a lack of interest.
AFL can't afford a sinking ship again
It's Northern Australia based in Darwin all the way

Identical percentages on a higher base grow bigger in absolute terms

 

[Canberra Pear]

It's exactly the reason
Same reason people look at Canberra and why GC and GWS were 17 and 18. No understanding of the sport and its cultural intricacies and significance. No vision.
Just a marketing team reading statistics and most people here fall for it hook line and sinker

I'm not denying the NT is more culturally linked to footy than Canberra, but footy is culturally significant to Canberra as well.

We've produced a lot of greats and are intrinsically linked to the game. The NT doesn't hold the monopoly on links to footy.

 

[Run n Spread]

I'm not denying the NT is more culturally linked to footy than Canberra, but footy is culturally significant to Canberra as well.

We've produced a lot of greats and are intrinsically linked to the game. The NT doesn't hold the monopoly on links to footy.

While that's true.
The NTs passion about the sport is miles ahead

 

[Canberra Pear]

While that's true.
The NTs passion about the sport is miles ahead

Once again, never denied that, but you need both passion and the demographics.

You need the balance of both. Canberra has both. The NT does not.

 

[Purple Suit]

Identical percentages on a higher base grow bigger in absolute terms

Exactly,
Who cares about a tiny difference in % growth if the base is significantly better in one area.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

While that's true.
The NTs passion about the sport is miles ahead

Which is untrue too because Darwin is less of a footy town than Hobart, Adelaide, Perth and Melbourne. It's more like 70/30 AFL/NRL (further harming its already small population), especially as plenty of people have moved there from Rugby territories.

 

[Run n Spread]

Which is untrue too because Darwin is less of a footy town than Hobart, Adelaide, Perth and Melbourne. It's more like 70/30 AFL/NRL (further harming its already small population), especially as plenty of people have moved there from Rugby territories.

Melbourne is the city that's growing exponentially literally 300000 a year. Is anyone suggesting an 11th team?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Exactly,
Who cares about a tiny difference in % growth if the base is significantly better in one area.

Exactly.

As I said early, last year the NT grew 0.8% and the ACT grew 1.7%, but even of that were reversed, it would take Darwin 139 years to overtake the ACT's population.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Melbourne is the city that's growing exponentially literally 300000 a year. Is anyone suggesting an 11th team?

Divide the population of Melbourne by 9
Multiply the population of Darwin by 0.7

You do the maths

 

[Coolangatta]

While that's true.
The NTs passion about the sport is miles ahead

What about the climate?

Does the NT weather even allow for a viable club up there?

Even if they had the population to support a team (they don’t) do they have the climate to?

That’s the question.

And if not, why not wait and see what science can do for the top end in a few decades? Added bonus? They should have more population by then.

Meanwhile, Canberra with the Riverina close by has the finances and more than enough people and interest to support a club now, let alone in thirty years. It’s their time.

 

[Bjo187]

The only way an n.t team would work is if it were combined with North Queensland. I heard somebody on another thread say NQ has 1.8 million people, more than the whole of S.A. I was shocked by that, so looked up a few big cities there and i didn't come close to that from what I could see, unless I'm missing something..

Regardless though, if it actually is 1.8 mill, it does have some more appeal, you could base them in Cairns, with 7 games in NQ and 4 in Darwin. It would pull aboriginal talent outta N.Q too which has some appeal.

Also what would the team be called:

• Northern Buffalos
• Northern Queensland & Territory Buffalos
• Northern Territory & Queensland Buffalos
• NQT Buffalos

Note: I'm only suggesting this as a potential option if NQ does in fact have 1.8 million people and if it is funded by a godfather type deal, like png got from the feds.

 

[Fire]

According to the centre of population studies the projected fas % growth of Australian cities is remarkably similar. Caps only at about 1.3-1.5% a year.
The outlier is the regions including Canberra which is half as much at 0.7%.
Second lowest is Adelaide.
Now when growing the game any business will tell you you need latent demand and the capacity to grow from there.
It's why Tassie is team 19 it will explode over night and continue to build on those strong foundations and grow at a sustainable pace.
Hell even any builder will tell you you need a stable base.
The NT is simply thus the most obvious choice. Predicted growth the same as any state footy mad and the most growth potential.
For all the talk of Sydney GWS population base will leak to central Sydney and shrink and it has a lack of interest.
AFL can't afford a sinking ship again
It's Northern Australia based in Darwin all the way

can you please link these sources?

Because I have been loosely tracking it all, and regions like the NT and Tasmania have a far lower growth rate than the major cities, and Canberra is usually equal to them if not higher. So it would be good to know what numbers you are working on, and how they fit into trends. I suspect you are wrong but can't say because I have no idea what you are working with.

 

[Fire]

I mean, this has been their trend. It shows:
1. the ACT consistently outgrowing the NT by a considerable margin
2. the ACT generally trending above the national population growth
3. The NT consistently trending well below the national population growth, including periods of negative or negligent growth.

Please link their forecasts which show what you claim, as I would like to know why they think long term trends will be flipped.

 

[Canberra Pear]

The only way an n.t team would work is if it were combined with North Queensland. I heard somebody on another thread say NQ has 1.8 million people, more than the whole of S.A. I was shocked by that, so looked up a few big cities there and i didn't come close to that from what I could see, unless I'm missing something..

You were right the first time. NQ definitely doesn't have 1.8m. Close to 700k, but that's from the tip to Mackay, which is a huge area.

While 700k is big enough to support a team, I think that's the case for a centralised population. I think NQ too spread out to consider it as one market. Mackay to Cairns is the same as Adelaide to Melbourne.

 

[Phill inn 123]

You were right the first time. NQ definitely doesn't have 1.8m. Close to 700k, but that's from the tip to Mackay, which is a huge area.

While 700k is big enough to support a team, I think that's the case for a centralised population. I think NQ too spread out to consider it as one market. Mackay to Cairns is the same as Adelaide to Melbourne.

Also think, honestly speaking, what players are generally willing to relocate to NQ? Have to consider this too, I imagine Tasmania will struggle to, will have to market it to specific players, somewhat like Geelong - Family, Country, Relaxed lifestyle, will be interesting to see

 

[Coolangatta]

You were right the first time. NQ definitely doesn't have 1.8m. Close to 700k, but that's from the tip to Mackay, which is a huge area.

While 700k is big enough to support a team, I think that's the case for a centralised population. I think NQ too spread out to consider it as one market. Mackay to Cairns is the same as Adelaide to Melbourne.

Yeah, NT has the same problem.

I really don’t see them ever working unless Darwin can hit about 450k people and you base the team there. You can’t play all 11 home games there, though.

You would only play 1 or 2 games in Alice Springs max, otherwise Darwin wouldn’t get enough games and the travel burden would be too great for players. 11 games in Darwin would be the best case scenario, maybe they could play a block of away games in Perth to start the season, one hosting an interstate team.

But again, they’re 50+ years away from having the population for it.

It’d be a similar case in NQ. Base the team in Cairns but let’s see how big their population can get first.

Canberra, Auckland and Newcastle are far bigger carrots for the AFL in the near future if they’re smart.

Assuming no relocations, they’d be my next three expansion targets as they’re new markets with no teams representing them so they offer the best growth.

Darwin and Cairns after that but even in 50 years they won’t offer much growth but they would complete the national profile of the game.

 

[The_Wookie]

Melbourne is the city that's growing exponentially literally 300000 a year. Is anyone suggesting an 11th team?

When the last AFL teams were added to Melbourne in 1925, the population was just 887,000, with 11 teams - a team for every 81,000 people - less than the club memberships of Carlton, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood and Hawthorn last year. In 2024 it was 5.316m, and is expected to be Australias largest city with a population of 6.45m in 2034.

We should have 60 teams in Melbourne by now /s

 

[Canberra Pear]

When the last AFL teams were added to Melbourne in 1925, the population was just 887,000, with 11 teams - a team for every 81,000 people - less than the club memberships of Carlton, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood and Hawthorn last year. In 2024 it was 5.316m, and is expected to be Australias largest city with a population of 6.45m in 2034.

We should have 60 teams in Melbourne by now /s

I know you're joking, but it reinforces how small Darwin is.

Melbourne could have 30 teams and they'd still have more people per team than a Darwin team.

 

[Badger17]

You were right the first time. NQ definitely doesn't have 1.8m. Close to 700k, but that's from the tip to Mackay, which is a huge area.

While 700k is big enough to support a team, I think that's the case for a centralised population. I think NQ too spread out to consider it as one market. Mackay to Cairns is the same as Adelaide to Melbourne.

You say it's too large to be considered a single market, but people legitimately travel the length and breadth of NQ to attend Cowboys games.

RL is a religion up there though, and Aussie Rules popularity in NQ is overstated on here. So I doubt you'd see the same passion and dedication for an AFL side that exists for the Cowboys.

 

[Canberra Pear]

You say it's too large to be considered a single market, but people legitimately travel the length and breadth of NQ to attend Cowboys games.

They do, but I imagine the crowds would be a lot larger if Cairns and Mackay were only 30 mins away.

I ask this with limited knowledge of NRL, what do you think the split would be between fans at a Cowboys game between people from Cairns or Townsville?

They may be passionate, but I would think the distance would put off the more casual fans from travelling, especially across a whole season, so I assume the majority would still be from Townsville.

RL is a religion up their though, and Aussie Rules popularity in NQ is overstated on here. So I doubt you'd see the same passion and dedication for an AFL side that exists for the Cowboys.

The other downside for AFL is it'd more likely be placed in Cairns. Four hours isn't insurmountable for fans from Mackay to travel to Townsville, but eight hours pretty much knocks out the possibility of a day trip.

 

[Badger17]

They do, but I imagine the crowds would be a lot larger if Cairns and Mackay were only 30 mins away.

I ask this with limited knowledge of NRL, what do you think the split would be between fans at a Cowboys game between people from Cairns or Townsville?

Only the Cowboys and NRL would have a really good idea of the answer to that question, but the number is definitely in the thousands, so it's a significant portion of the crowd.

I imagine that the opposition impacts the number to some extent, but it wouldn't surprise me if 20-30% of the crowd was North Queenslanders traveling from outside Townsville for the game. It's likely a larger percentage for big games like finals as well.

They may be passionate, but I would think the distance would put off the more casual fans from travelling, especially across a whole season, so I assume the majority would still be from Townsville.

There aren't that many "casual" RL fans in North Queensland. RL is their religion and the Cowboys are the church they worship at.

An AFL side would probably do alright in Cairns, but North Queensland sides need the whole region onboard to be successful. Similar to Newcastle, a North Queensland AFL side would be a much harder sell than GWS or the Suns have been. It wouldn't be dissimilar to putting an NRL side in Geelong, to give you some idea.

The other downside for AFL is it'd more likely be placed in Cairns. Four hours isn't insurmountable for fans from Mackay to travel to Townsville, but eight hours pretty much knocks out the possibility of a day trip.

Townsville's relatively central location is one of the many reasons why it was chosen as the Cowboy's base. In an ideal world you'd base the AFL side there as well, but as you say, it's much more hostile ground than Cairns.

Look, an AFL side in NQ probably isn't going to be a realistic prospect in our lifetime. The AFL would be better off ensuring regular AFL content is played in the region than trying to force a local AFL side through.