20th AFL Team

[Badger17]

My main point was that SEQ3 could become a more attractive option that WA3 in coming decades.

With Gold Coast in the south, a northern team made more sense to me, but that could just as easily be a Moreton Bay-based team. Sunshine Coast just seemed more obvious to me without any real competition (no offence meant to the netball).

Okay, but there's no way that the Sunshine Coast would be a more viable option than a second side in the Brisbane metro area.

 

[Gibbke]

There actually has been talk of an NRL team on the Sunshine Coast, it's just way down the list.

You could put an NRL team on the Sunshine Coast, but why would you when you could put one in Ipswich or south of the river in Brisbane, not to mention Perth, NZ, Adelaide, etc.

The admission of Redcliffe proved fairly strongly that the NRL talks the talk, but the walk doesn't match because they aren't as big and strong as they'd like to have everyone believing. Strong bids from Ipswich, Easts, the Bombers and Brothers were all beaten by a team that came to the party late and brought in better facilities, pretty much as simple as that. They talk expansion, but the WA bid was dead in the water once North Sydney started making noises about the cheaper option of relocation. PNG is all about the federal government and international relations, and it's them footing the bill...

 

[Badger17]

Yep, could be Brisbane 2 and Auckland and then the next round SW WA and Newcastle. Though somehow I expect NT/NQ to be part of an expansion cycle if we go to 22-24 teams.

And honestly I don’t see why the AFL can’t have that many teams someday. Yes, even 26 but beyond our lifetimes.

Though another QLD/NSW combo wouldn’t surprise me if we go to 22 teams.

Auckland would be a bigger get than either of those though for sure.

This'll probably be a controversial opinion around here, but NZ would be the AFL's Afghanistan.

AFL has next to zero mainstream cultural presence in NZ. Cracking the NZ market will be extremely costly and time-consuming, and likely not worth the effort.

I wouldn't be surprised if an NZ based AFL club averaged sub-10k crowds, and I don't see that changing without decades of expensive ground work being put in place before hand.

 

[Gibbke]

The only viable AFL expansion options are WA and Canberra. Neither is a goldmine. Tassie is there because they've made a shit ton of noise and haven't stopped since the 1990's, and put in every conceivable winning argument - all ignored until the one thing that matters, TV dividends, finally on paper couldn't be argued with. The stadium deal, a cynical move by the AFL to scuttle the bid because they simply don't want the team and need an out without looking like complete arseholes, is another story, but if it's been that hard to get a 19th side in, the above options are the least on the nose for the AFL and everything else is pie in the sky fantasy. Unless FTA specifically says they want a ten game deal, there's nothing driving any of this...

 

[threenewpadlocks]

This'll probably be a controversial opinion around here, but NZ would be the AFL's Afghanistan.

AFL has next to zero mainstream cultural presence in NZ. Cracking the NZ market will be extremely costly and time-consuming, and likely not worth the effort.

I wouldn't be surprised if an NZ based AFL club averaged sub-10k crowds, and I don't see that changing without decades of expensive ground work being put in place before hand.

Auckland is full of cosmopolitan yuppies, the young people that can afford to live there would be open-minded to watching AFL in the same way that there's been a bit of a 20s/30s year old people going to Sydney and Brisbane game post-covid. - it's seen as a bit of a culture status if anything.

Even if there was a suitable stadium, you'd have to basically exclusively play your games on Friday and Saturday nights and maybe an evening Saturday game. Sundays would be out of the question because of the difficulty of travelling fans making it back for the Monday work week in Aus too.

I don't think it's as silly as an idea, but it needs an ideal stadium located accessible to the types of people that would go to the AFL and that just doesn't exist.

 

[Badger17]

The admission of Redcliffe proved fairly strongly that the NRL talks the talk, but the walk doesn't match because they aren't as big and strong as they'd like to have everyone believing. Strong bids from Ipswich, Easts, the Bombers and Brothers were all beaten by a team that came to the party late and brought in better facilities, pretty much as simple as that. They talk expansion, but the WA bid was dead in the water once North Sydney started making noises about the cheaper option of relocation. PNG is all about the federal government and international relations, and it's them footing the bill...

Aside from minor details that are neither here nor there, I don't really disagree with any of that

It's telling that the Dolphins only got the nod after V'landys had a meeting with Lachlan Murdoch, who's effectively the Broncos owner, and he hand selected them and offered for News to pay an extra $5mil (IIRC) a season if the Dolphins got the license.

 

[Badger17]

Auckland is full of cosmopolitan yuppies, the young people that can afford to live there would be open-minded to watching AFL in the same way that there's been a bit of a 20s/30s year old people going to Sydney and Brisbane game post-covid. - it's seen as a bit of a culture status if anything.

Even if there was a suitable stadium, you'd have to basically exclusively play your games on Friday and Saturday nights and maybe an evening Saturday game. Sundays would be out of the question because of the difficulty of travelling fans making it back for the Monday work week in Aus too.

I don't think it's as silly as an idea, but it needs an ideal stadium located accessible to the types of people that would go to the AFL and that just doesn't exist.

Auckland may be full of cosmopolitan yuppies, but that doesn't mean that they'd have any interest in Aussie Rules.

An AFL team in NZ would be a bit like putting a professional lacrosse team in Australia. Sure it'd carve out a niche, maybe even a very passionate niche, but it'd be a very small one that's almost certainly not large enough to sustain it.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Auckland may be full of cosmopolitan yuppies, but that doesn't mean that they'd have any interest in Aussie Rules.

An AFL team in NZ would be a bit like putting a professional lacrosse team in Australia. Sure it'd carve out a niche, maybe even a very passionate niche, but it'd be a very small one that's almost certainly not large enough to sustain it.

I've met a lot of Brisbane/Sydney types who have no reason (family, cultural attachment to the sport) to be Aussie Rules fans, but they've become passionate supporters of the Swans and Lions just because they live vaguely close to the city and see the aesthetics/community of the sport to be nicer and counter to the main, working class NRL culture. Many of them are transient types too, the type of successful individuals who have moved across Australia, moved from overseas, spent time living overseas etc.

I think that they could have interest in AFL, but it would have to be a very niche "this is a trendy thing to do on a Friday Night and we'll go out to the closest pub after the game" type. When they inevitably have to host a Perth-based team on a Sunday, with zero travelling fans and zero atmosphere, I think your very small crowd prediction would be correct.

 

[RedV3x]

This'll probably be a controversial opinion around here, but NZ would be the AFL's Afghanistan.

More like a totally uniformed and shallow opinion.

AFL has next to zero mainstream cultural presence in NZ.

I don't know about that but Australian Football has a reasonable sporting presence in Auckland.

Cracking the NZ market will be extremely costly and time-consuming,

Before Covid, the AFL had invested many resources in N.Z.
The AFL had figures of 25k participation.

and likely not worth the effort.

Actually not continuing would invalidate a lot of previous hard work.

I wouldn't be surprised if an NZ based AFL club averaged sub-10k crowds,

Well the first AFL game in Wellington, a city of 40k attracted 25k.

and I don't see that changing without decades of expensive ground work being put in place before hand.

it's already taken place.

 

[RedV3x]

Auckland may be full of cosmopolitan yuppies, but that doesn't mean that they'd have any interest in Aussie Rules.

Auckland may be full of cosmopolitan yuppies, which would auger well for an interest in Aussie Rules.

An AFL team in NZ would be a bit like putting a professional lacrosse team in Australia.

Absolutely no comparison at all.
The AFL has invested resources in Auckland. There is a history of Australian Football in N.Z. there are a number of leagues , there were 35k participants and an AFL game that attracted 25k.

Sure it'd carve out a niche,

Sport is a niche. football is a niche. New Zealanders are no different from Australians and Australians are passionate about AFL. There is no legitimate reason why AFL cannot be supported passionately anywhere it is given a fair chance.

maybe even a very passionate niche, but it'd be a very small one that's almost certainly not large enough to sustain it.

Auckland has a population of 1.7 million and the Swans Vs St Kilda game at Wellington, a city of 400,00 attracted 25k people. IMO Auckland would be a much easier deal than Western Sydney.

 

[Bjo187]

I think you'd need the whole of Australia behind afl and not being suppressed in nsw and qld still for kiwis to really take notice. It does seem a bridge too far, but if the afl have the whole of Australia tied up, it's the only obvious move.

On Brisbane 2, Aspley is a really strong club in North Brisbane with the most players in QLD and pokies, restaurants etc. You'd have to change the putrid colours, but it would be a decent club to bring in (similar to how Southport should have been the gc sharks licence).

 

[Badger17]

More like a totally uniformed and shallow opinion.



I don't know about that but Australian Football has a reasonable sporting presence in Auckland.



Before Covid, the AFL had invested many resources in N.Z.
The AFL had figures of 25k participation.



Actually not continuing would invalidate a lot of previous hard work.



Well the first AFL game in Wellington, a city of 40k attracted 25k.



it's already taken place.

Auckland may be full of cosmopolitan yuppies, which would auger well for an interest in Aussie Rules.



Absolutely no comparison at all.
The AFL has invested resources in Auckland. There is a history of Australian Football in N.Z. there are a number of leagues , there were 35k participants and an AFL game that attracted 25k.



Sport is a niche. football is a niche. New Zealanders are no different from Australians and Australians are passionate about AFL. There is no legitimate reason why AFL cannot be supported passionately anywhere it is given a fair chance.



Auckland has a population of 1.7 million and the Swans Vs St Kilda game at Wellington, a city of 400,00 attracted 25k people. IMO Auckland would be a much easier deal than Western Sydney.

NZ already has a sport for cosmopolitan yuppies: RU. Unlike in Australia where RU traditionally struggles, it has an absolute stranglehold on that market in NZ.

Participation doesn't equal interest in the professional product. If it did soccer would be far and away the most popular sport in both countries, which I think we can both agree isn't the case.

Anybody can draw a crowd for a one off event. It's a pattern of consist demand that matters.

St Kilda drew 22.5k in 2013, not 25k, and that attendance almost halved in 2014 to 13.4k, then dropped to 12.1k in 2015. Now imagine what those numbers would have looked like if they had 11 home games to sell a season... Their average attendance number would have sunk like a stone, and I doubt it'd be any better now than it was a decade ago.

With respect, you are completely out of touch with the reality of the popularity and presence of the AFL in NZ.

 

[Badger17]

I've met a lot of Brisbane/Sydney types who have no reason (family, cultural attachment to the sport) to be Aussie Rules fans, but they've become passionate supporters of the Swans and Lions just because they live vaguely close to the city and see the aesthetics/community of the sport to be nicer and counter to the main, working class NRL culture. Many of them are transient types too, the type of successful individuals who have moved across Australia, moved from overseas, spent time living overseas etc.

I think that they could have interest in AFL, but it would have to be a very niche "this is a trendy thing to do on a Friday Night and we'll go out to the closest pub after the game" type. When they inevitably have to host a Perth-based team on a Sunday, with zero travelling fans and zero atmosphere, I think your very small crowd prediction would be correct.

I'm certain you have met people like that in Brisbane and Sydney, but that's after decades of work, struggle, and god knows how much financial investment. In NZ the AFL would be starting from an even lower base, with even less publicity and latent support, than anything they've experienced in NSW and Qld.

The broadcast value in NZ would be negligible as well. So I doubt that the AFL could offset the cost with a reasonable broadcast deal from Sky like the NRL and others have, which is probably a large part of the reason why it hasn't already happened.

I'm not saying that an AFL side in NZ couldn't be done, but it'd be an expensive uphill battle unlike anything the AFL have ever experienced before. It would bleed money and resources for multiple generations before it showed any kind of significant return.