20th AFL Team

[Badger17]

My main point was that SEQ3 could become a more attractive option that WA3 in coming decades.

With Gold Coast in the south, a northern team made more sense to me, but that could just as easily be a Moreton Bay-based team. Sunshine Coast just seemed more obvious to me without any real competition (no offence meant to the netball).

Okay, but there's no way that the Sunshine Coast would be a more viable option than a second side in the Brisbane metro area.

 

[Gibbke]

There actually has been talk of an NRL team on the Sunshine Coast, it's just way down the list.

You could put an NRL team on the Sunshine Coast, but why would you when you could put one in Ipswich or south of the river in Brisbane, not to mention Perth, NZ, Adelaide, etc.

The admission of Redcliffe proved fairly strongly that the NRL talks the talk, but the walk doesn't match because they aren't as big and strong as they'd like to have everyone believing. Strong bids from Ipswich, Easts, the Bombers and Brothers were all beaten by a team that came to the party late and brought in better facilities, pretty much as simple as that. They talk expansion, but the WA bid was dead in the water once North Sydney started making noises about the cheaper option of relocation. PNG is all about the federal government and international relations, and it's them footing the bill...

 

[Badger17]

Yep, could be Brisbane 2 and Auckland and then the next round SW WA and Newcastle. Though somehow I expect NT/NQ to be part of an expansion cycle if we go to 22-24 teams.

And honestly I don’t see why the AFL can’t have that many teams someday. Yes, even 26 but beyond our lifetimes.

Though another QLD/NSW combo wouldn’t surprise me if we go to 22 teams.

Auckland would be a bigger get than either of those though for sure.

This'll probably be a controversial opinion around here, but NZ would be the AFL's Afghanistan.

AFL has next to zero mainstream cultural presence in NZ. Cracking the NZ market will be extremely costly and time-consuming, and likely not worth the effort.

I wouldn't be surprised if an NZ based AFL club averaged sub-10k crowds, and I don't see that changing without decades of expensive ground work being put in place before hand.

 

[Gibbke]

The only viable AFL expansion options are WA and Canberra. Neither is a goldmine. Tassie is there because they've made a shit ton of noise and haven't stopped since the 1990's, and put in every conceivable winning argument - all ignored until the one thing that matters, TV dividends, finally on paper couldn't be argued with. The stadium deal, a cynical move by the AFL to scuttle the bid because they simply don't want the team and need an out without looking like complete arseholes, is another story, but if it's been that hard to get a 19th side in, the above options are the least on the nose for the AFL and everything else is pie in the sky fantasy. Unless FTA specifically says they want a ten game deal, there's nothing driving any of this...

 

[threenewpadlocks]

This'll probably be a controversial opinion around here, but NZ would be the AFL's Afghanistan.

AFL has next to zero mainstream cultural presence in NZ. Cracking the NZ market will be extremely costly and time-consuming, and likely not worth the effort.

I wouldn't be surprised if an NZ based AFL club averaged sub-10k crowds, and I don't see that changing without decades of expensive ground work being put in place before hand.

Auckland is full of cosmopolitan yuppies, the young people that can afford to live there would be open-minded to watching AFL in the same way that there's been a bit of a 20s/30s year old people going to Sydney and Brisbane game post-covid. - it's seen as a bit of a culture status if anything.

Even if there was a suitable stadium, you'd have to basically exclusively play your games on Friday and Saturday nights and maybe an evening Saturday game. Sundays would be out of the question because of the difficulty of travelling fans making it back for the Monday work week in Aus too.

I don't think it's as silly as an idea, but it needs an ideal stadium located accessible to the types of people that would go to the AFL and that just doesn't exist.

 

[Badger17]

The admission of Redcliffe proved fairly strongly that the NRL talks the talk, but the walk doesn't match because they aren't as big and strong as they'd like to have everyone believing. Strong bids from Ipswich, Easts, the Bombers and Brothers were all beaten by a team that came to the party late and brought in better facilities, pretty much as simple as that. They talk expansion, but the WA bid was dead in the water once North Sydney started making noises about the cheaper option of relocation. PNG is all about the federal government and international relations, and it's them footing the bill...

Aside from minor details that are neither here nor there, I don't really disagree with any of that

It's telling that the Dolphins only got the nod after V'landys had a meeting with Lachlan Murdoch, who's effectively the Broncos owner, and he hand selected them and offered for News to pay an extra $5mil (IIRC) a season if the Dolphins got the license.

 

[Badger17]

Auckland is full of cosmopolitan yuppies, the young people that can afford to live there would be open-minded to watching AFL in the same way that there's been a bit of a 20s/30s year old people going to Sydney and Brisbane game post-covid. - it's seen as a bit of a culture status if anything.

Even if there was a suitable stadium, you'd have to basically exclusively play your games on Friday and Saturday nights and maybe an evening Saturday game. Sundays would be out of the question because of the difficulty of travelling fans making it back for the Monday work week in Aus too.

I don't think it's as silly as an idea, but it needs an ideal stadium located accessible to the types of people that would go to the AFL and that just doesn't exist.

Auckland may be full of cosmopolitan yuppies, but that doesn't mean that they'd have any interest in Aussie Rules.

An AFL team in NZ would be a bit like putting a professional lacrosse team in Australia. Sure it'd carve out a niche, maybe even a very passionate niche, but it'd be a very small one that's almost certainly not large enough to sustain it.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Auckland may be full of cosmopolitan yuppies, but that doesn't mean that they'd have any interest in Aussie Rules.

An AFL team in NZ would be a bit like putting a professional lacrosse team in Australia. Sure it'd carve out a niche, maybe even a very passionate niche, but it'd be a very small one that's almost certainly not large enough to sustain it.

I've met a lot of Brisbane/Sydney types who have no reason (family, cultural attachment to the sport) to be Aussie Rules fans, but they've become passionate supporters of the Swans and Lions just because they live vaguely close to the city and see the aesthetics/community of the sport to be nicer and counter to the main, working class NRL culture. Many of them are transient types too, the type of successful individuals who have moved across Australia, moved from overseas, spent time living overseas etc.

I think that they could have interest in AFL, but it would have to be a very niche "this is a trendy thing to do on a Friday Night and we'll go out to the closest pub after the game" type. When they inevitably have to host a Perth-based team on a Sunday, with zero travelling fans and zero atmosphere, I think your very small crowd prediction would be correct.

 

[RedV3x]

This'll probably be a controversial opinion around here, but NZ would be the AFL's Afghanistan.

More like a totally uniformed and shallow opinion.

AFL has next to zero mainstream cultural presence in NZ.

I don't know about that but Australian Football has a reasonable sporting presence in Auckland.

Cracking the NZ market will be extremely costly and time-consuming,

Before Covid, the AFL had invested many resources in N.Z.
The AFL had figures of 25k participation.

and likely not worth the effort.

Actually not continuing would invalidate a lot of previous hard work.

I wouldn't be surprised if an NZ based AFL club averaged sub-10k crowds,

Well the first AFL game in Wellington, a city of 40k attracted 25k.

and I don't see that changing without decades of expensive ground work being put in place before hand.

it's already taken place.

 

[RedV3x]

Auckland may be full of cosmopolitan yuppies, but that doesn't mean that they'd have any interest in Aussie Rules.

Auckland may be full of cosmopolitan yuppies, which would auger well for an interest in Aussie Rules.

An AFL team in NZ would be a bit like putting a professional lacrosse team in Australia.

Absolutely no comparison at all.
The AFL has invested resources in Auckland. There is a history of Australian Football in N.Z. there are a number of leagues , there were 35k participants and an AFL game that attracted 25k.

Sure it'd carve out a niche,

Sport is a niche. football is a niche. New Zealanders are no different from Australians and Australians are passionate about AFL. There is no legitimate reason why AFL cannot be supported passionately anywhere it is given a fair chance.

maybe even a very passionate niche, but it'd be a very small one that's almost certainly not large enough to sustain it.

Auckland has a population of 1.7 million and the Swans Vs St Kilda game at Wellington, a city of 400,00 attracted 25k people. IMO Auckland would be a much easier deal than Western Sydney.

 

[Bjo187]

I think you'd need the whole of Australia behind afl and not being suppressed in nsw and qld still for kiwis to really take notice. It does seem a bridge too far, but if the afl have the whole of Australia tied up, it's the only obvious move.

On Brisbane 2, Aspley is a really strong club in North Brisbane with the most players in QLD and pokies, restaurants etc. You'd have to change the putrid colours, but it would be a decent club to bring in (similar to how Southport should have been the gc sharks licence).

 

[Badger17]

More like a totally uniformed and shallow opinion.



I don't know about that but Australian Football has a reasonable sporting presence in Auckland.



Before Covid, the AFL had invested many resources in N.Z.
The AFL had figures of 25k participation.



Actually not continuing would invalidate a lot of previous hard work.



Well the first AFL game in Wellington, a city of 40k attracted 25k.



it's already taken place.

Auckland may be full of cosmopolitan yuppies, which would auger well for an interest in Aussie Rules.



Absolutely no comparison at all.
The AFL has invested resources in Auckland. There is a history of Australian Football in N.Z. there are a number of leagues , there were 35k participants and an AFL game that attracted 25k.



Sport is a niche. football is a niche. New Zealanders are no different from Australians and Australians are passionate about AFL. There is no legitimate reason why AFL cannot be supported passionately anywhere it is given a fair chance.



Auckland has a population of 1.7 million and the Swans Vs St Kilda game at Wellington, a city of 400,00 attracted 25k people. IMO Auckland would be a much easier deal than Western Sydney.

NZ already has a sport for cosmopolitan yuppies: RU. Unlike in Australia where RU traditionally struggles, it has an absolute stranglehold on that market in NZ.

Participation doesn't equal interest in the professional product. If it did soccer would be far and away the most popular sport in both countries, which I think we can both agree isn't the case.

Anybody can draw a crowd for a one off event. It's a pattern of consist demand that matters.

St Kilda drew 22.5k in 2013, not 25k, and that attendance almost halved in 2014 to 13.4k, then dropped to 12.1k in 2015. Now imagine what those numbers would have looked like if they had 11 home games to sell a season... Their average attendance number would have sunk like a stone, and I doubt it'd be any better now than it was a decade ago.

With respect, you are completely out of touch with the reality of the popularity and presence of the AFL in NZ.

 

[Badger17]

I've met a lot of Brisbane/Sydney types who have no reason (family, cultural attachment to the sport) to be Aussie Rules fans, but they've become passionate supporters of the Swans and Lions just because they live vaguely close to the city and see the aesthetics/community of the sport to be nicer and counter to the main, working class NRL culture. Many of them are transient types too, the type of successful individuals who have moved across Australia, moved from overseas, spent time living overseas etc.

I think that they could have interest in AFL, but it would have to be a very niche "this is a trendy thing to do on a Friday Night and we'll go out to the closest pub after the game" type. When they inevitably have to host a Perth-based team on a Sunday, with zero travelling fans and zero atmosphere, I think your very small crowd prediction would be correct.

I'm certain you have met people like that in Brisbane and Sydney, but that's after decades of work, struggle, and god knows how much financial investment. In NZ the AFL would be starting from an even lower base, with even less publicity and latent support, than anything they've experienced in NSW and Qld.

The broadcast value in NZ would be negligible as well. So I doubt that the AFL could offset the cost with a reasonable broadcast deal from Sky like the NRL and others have, which is probably a large part of the reason why it hasn't already happened.

I'm not saying that an AFL side in NZ couldn't be done, but it'd be an expensive uphill battle unlike anything the AFL have ever experienced before. It would bleed money and resources for multiple generations before it showed any kind of significant return.

 

[Fire]

I don't think people on here really get what AFL expansion means.

The AFL are not like just about any other sporting body in the world. When they expand into a new market, they expect to make a loss. For a generation. For two generations. For as many generations as it takes.

When South first moved to Sydney, they were AVERAGING around 10k a game. And a nice chunk of that were away supporters who were living or visiting the city. Brisbane was even worse, where a 10k average was a good year.

Now, nearly two generations on, they are powerhouses in their own right and still growing. The Suns and Giants are already doing better than what they were early on, and in another generation and a half, they will be key members of the AFL.

You want to talk about Vietnam and Afghanistan... and you are right. But the AFL knows this. And they are prepared for it. If there is a market which they are willing to develop, then they will develop it. They have never failed. Because they will do whatever it takes, for as long as it takes.

 

[Coolangatta]

I don't think people on here really get what AFL expansion means.

The AFL are not like just about any other sporting body in the world. When they expand into a new market, they expect to make a loss. For a generation. For two generations. For as many generations as it takes.

When South first moved to Sydney, they were AVERAGING around 10k a game. And a nice chunk of that were away supporters who were living or visiting the city. Brisbane was even worse, where a 10k average was a good year.

Now, nearly two generations on, they are powerhouses in their own right and still growing. The Suns and Giants are already doing better than what they were early on, and in another generation and a half, they will be key members of the AFL.

You want to talk about Vietnam and Afghanistan... and you are right. But the AFL knows this. And they are prepared for it. If there is a market which they are willing to develop, then they will develop it. They have never failed. Because they will do whatever it takes, for as long as it takes.

Agreed.

But I also agree with Bjo187 that perhaps it’s best for the AFL to shore up NSW and QLD first.

Have 20 clubs (inc. Canberra) that are self sufficient so they have extra cash to sink into a NZ team.

They’ll probably look to NSW and QLD again if they go to 22 teams.

A Suns rebrand as Sharks would be good and I like the Aspley promotion idea - Moreton Bay Hornets. Newcastle to shore up NSW/QLD.

Then after that and about 20 years to grow, an Auckland based club and a SW WA club. In 50 years time I think the SW will be big enough for a club.

So basically leave Perth, Sydney and Adelaide as two club strong rivalry cities and add Brisbane to the mix.

Darwin and Cairns could be end game targets beyond our lifetimes if they ever reach around 500k and depending on climate.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Depends how Auckland is looking by then

Where would you propose a AFL played in Auckland?

 

[Bjo187]

Agreed.

But I also agree with Bjo187 that perhaps it’s best for the AFL to shore up NSW and QLD first.

Have 20 clubs (inc. Canberra) that are self sufficient so they have extra cash to sink into a NZ team.

They’ll probably look to NSW and QLD again if they go to 22 teams.

A Suns rebrand as Sharks would be good and I like the Aspley promotion idea - Moreton Bay Hornets. Newcastle to shore up NSW/QLD.

Then after that and about 20 years to grow, an Auckland based club and a SW WA club. In 50 years time I think the SW will be big enough for a club.

So basically leave Perth, Sydney and Adelaide as two club strong rivalry cities and add Brisbane to the mix.

Darwin and Cairns could be end game targets beyond our lifetimes if they ever reach around 500k and depending on climate.

Just doing some more research into the Aspley hornets, they do in fact have two facilities now to go along with their restaurant, pokies etc, one being pretty new.




On the name, Aspley sits just outside of Moreton bay, but the Moreton bay area is huge, with Aspleys second new facility and Redcliffe tigers new facility both in Moreton bay looking pretty good. Redcliffe tigers venue below.



For this reason though, you'd maybe name them Northern Brisbane or the like, then you could take in all that area plus even do a game or two on the Sunshine coast, to draw in some extra fans. Funnily enough, the term 'North of Brisbane' encompasses all the areas you wanna catch better than just north or northern, but I dunno if a club has ever had 'of' in their title.

Anyway some good facilities, good investment by local government, a strong club is aspley and covering from Brisbane upwards might be very appealing in 8 years time, when a new licence gets introduced. Then you have south of Brisbane the GC Suns, Central and west/east Brisbane the lions and North the hornets, it's a good disruption across all of SEQ.

2024 numbers below:

 

[Canberra Pear]

Where would you propose a AFL played in Auckland?

Somewhere developed for cricket some point in the next 30 years?

There's nowhere suitable now, but Cricket NZ is scouring Auckland for somewhere to build a boutique venue capable of holding tests (read: not square). Good chance that dilemma is solved at some point in the next 30 years.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Somewhere developed for cricket some point in the next 30 years?

There's nowhere suitable now, but Cricket NZ is scouring Auckland for somewhere to build a boutique venue capable of holding tests (read: not square). Good chance that dilemma is solved at some point in the next 30 years.

Dude if Cricket NZ built a new boutique venue they won't be looking to share it with a AFL club.
They will share the costs with NZ union so NZ union can play Test Rugby there, and base a professional union side there just like Eden park. Sorry to put water on your fire.
Anyway fingers crossed for you that the 20th AFL team is Canberra.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Dude if Cricket NZ built a new boutique venue they won't be looking to share it with a AFL club.

Huh? They would absolutely love the rent payments coming in for a stadium that has literally no natural sports to host in the cricket in the off-season.

"Boutique" suggests a sub-30k crowd capacity.

They will share the costs with NZ union so NZ union can play Test Rugby there, and base a professional union side there just like Eden park. Sorry to put water on your fire.

Why would they play at a smaller, oval cricket venue away from the crowd when there's plans to redevelop Eden Park, of which all of Auckland's major Rugby can be played in (while they can continue to use Mt. Smart stadium as a secondary rectangular sports venue).

 

[Aussie in exile]

Huh? They would absolutely love the rent payments coming in for a stadium that has literally no natural sports to host in the cricket in the off-season.

"Boutique" suggests a sub-30k crowd capacity.

Why would they play at a smaller, oval cricket venue away from the crowd when there's plans to redevelop Eden Park, of which all of Auckland's major Rugby can be played in (while they can continue to use Mt. Smart stadium as a secondary rectangular sports venue).

NZ union will make sure that the AFL never get a team in NZ trust me.
Union is the game of the establishment in New Zealand and the establishment will back them.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Dude if Cricket NZ built a new boutique venue they won't be looking to share it with a AFL club.
They will share the costs with NZ union so NZ union can play Test Rugby there, and base a professional union side there just like Eden park. Sorry to put water on your fire.
Anyway fingers crossed for you that the 20th AFL team is Canberra.

There are already rectangle stadiums in Auckland; there's no reason that rugby would want to partner with cricket and use an oval stadium.

Any cricket stadium that gets made would love to have a winter tenant. Even part-time. When Western Springs looked likely as a cricket stadium, AFL was squarely a part of the plan. Regional Facilities Auckland had even planned for up to three AFL games a year to be played there.

 

[RedV3x]

NZ already has a sport for cosmopolitan yuppies:

If you say so, I doubt it and it's irrelevant.

RU. Unlike in Australia where RU traditionally struggles

RU was strong in Australia and now it struggles.
The same possibility can be said for any sport.

it has an absolute stranglehold on that market in NZ.

RU is the dominant sport In N.Z. but you're a fool if you think any sport has a "stranglehold".
The cracks are already showing in N.Z. RU.
NRL fans would disagree with you.

Participation doesn't equal interest in the professional product.

Yes but getting participation up to 35k is quite impressive.
and shows acceptance of accepting something new.

If it did soccer would be far and away the most popular sport in both countries, which I think we can both agree isn't the cit didase.

No, Soccer participation is skewed to young juniors and kick-around competitions.
The ABS, when it did proper census showed that soccer participation in the critical post 15 age group was poor.
The 35k participation for Australian Football in N.Z. was in that critical age group.

Anybody can draw a crowd for a one off event. It's a pattern of consist demand that matters.

Drop the Hyperbole not anyone can drum up a good crowd.

St Kilda drew 22.5k in 2013, not 25k, and that attendance almost halved in 2014 to 13.4k, then dropped to 12.1k in 2015.

That's bloody good for a cellar dweller and good compared to NRL.

Now imagine what those numbers would have looked like if they had 11 home games to sell a season.

Now imagine what those numbers would have looked like if they had a team performing well
and named as Auckland !

With respect, you are completely out of touch with the reality of the popularity and presence of the AFL in NZ.

With no respect to you, you are completely out of touch with the reality of the popularity and presence of the AFL that existed in NZ.pre-Covid.
I was there and reported on a number of international games in Auckland.
I was most impressed with the player's attitude which was akin to an Australian playing basketball.
The fact that it wasn't an indigenous sport never surfaced.

 

[RedV3x]

NZ union will make sure that the AFL never get a team in NZ trust me.

How ?

Union is the game of the establishment in New Zealand and the establishment will back them.

LOL.
They didn't do too well w.r.t. to NRL then, did they.

 

[RedV3x]

There are already rectangle stadiums in Auckland; there's no reason that rugby would want to partner with cricket and use an oval stadium.

Any cricket stadium that gets made would love to have a winter tenant. Even part-time. When Western Springs looked likely as a cricket stadium, AFL was squarely a part of the plan. Regional Facilities Auckland had even planned for up to three AFL games a year to be played there.

Quite correct