parmy2balmey
stay moderated
word coming out of football circles is he will be the best from the draft, the croatian kouta
Player Watch #21: Noah Balta - Suspended First 4 Games
- Thread starter Grockadoc
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I would like to hear how this young bloke is travelling, which line is he training with, how is he performing in that group, what are people seeing.
His ruck work in TAC looked acceptable, takes a good contested grab, has speed, but not heard a thing?
His ruck work in TAC looked acceptable, takes a good contested grab, has speed, but not heard a thing?
I would like to see what mopsy thinks of Hawthorn's performance in the ND and rookie draft when it comes to talls in the last 10 years. They are the most successful side in that time.
Who did they pick as youngsters in that time? How has their development of these guys gone?
Who did they pick as youngsters in that time? How has their development of these guys gone?
So yeah that Noah Balta kid looks alright. Rekon we could see him play a few games this year.
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Yeah I hope so. I'm only going on highlight footage, which can obviously be very misleading, but really liked what I saw.
We'll get a better idea in NOB cup, only 2 games, but let's see if he gets a crack at both games.
Not sure why you used pick 30 as the benchmark, I feel like unless you have a top 10 pick the chance of drafting/developing a quality tall (particularly a fwd) falls significantly.
Here's the AFL rankings top 10 forwards and their draft position:
Lance Franklin - 5
Josh Kennedy - 3
Tom Lynch - 11
Justin Westhoff - 71
Joe Daniher - 10 (F/S selection, would’ve gone top 3)
Tom Hawkins - 41 (F/S selection, would’ve gone top 3)
Taylor Walker - 75 (Scholarship player selection, would've gone 1st rd)
Jeremy Cameron - Underage recruit (would’ve gone top 3)
Charlie Dixon - QLD zone selection
Jack Gunston - 29
7/10 were or were likely to have been gone by the first 11 picks in their draft.
Pretty much every teams' best key fwds were taken in the top 10 or close to it:
GWS: Patton 1, Cameron (would've gone top 3)
WB: Boyd 1, Schache 2
StK: McCartin 1
Haw: Roughead 2
Freo: McCarthy 14
BL: Hipwood 14 (zone selection)
Melb: Hogan 3 (pick 2 in mini draft)
GCS: Lynch 11, Day 3
WCE: Kennedy 3
Port: Dixon QLD zone selection
Ess: Daniher 10 F/S (would've gone top 3)
Geel: Hawkins 41 F/S (would've gone top 3)
Adel: Walker 75 (Scholarship player selection, would've gone 1st rd)
Syd: Franklin 5
Carl: Casboult 89, Curnow 12
Coll: Moore 9
Norf: Brown 47
I don't think it's just us that have trouble drafting/developing tall fwds, I'd say most clubs struggle with it if they're not recruiting them from the high 1st round.
Yeah it's easy to say our strike rate is poor looking purely at the volume of talls we've drafted... Though another way to look at it is we've used 1 top 10 pick in the last 15 years on a tall yet we've still managed to draft/develop a two-time Coleman medallist and the GOAT defender...
Not many other clubs can say the same.
I don't think he is first in line. Moore, Garthwaite from the younger brigade are before him. The high expectations from me come in that he looks to have so many AFL traits. Great size, quick, athletic, spring, booming kick, great mark... so much to get excited about forward or back. Is he ready of course not, but he is the sort of player that looks like he mightl make an impact sooner than later, a bit like Lever. Not that the expectations of BF posters has much influence on the kid, may not even know I exist.
Thats an interesting way to look at it.I will look at other clubs and at a guess id say most have done far better than us.Not sure why you used pick 30 as the benchmark, I feel like unless you have a top 10 pick the chance of drafting/developing a quality tall (particularly a fwd) falls significantly.
Here's the AFL rankings top 10 forwards and their draft position:
Lance Franklin - 5
Josh Kennedy - 3
Tom Lynch - 11
Justin Westhoff - 71
Joe Daniher - 10 (F/S selection, would’ve gone top 3)
Tom Hawkins - 41 (F/S selection, would’ve gone top 3)
Taylor Walker - 75 (Scholarship player selection, would've gone 1st rd)
Jeremy Cameron - Underage recruit (would’ve gone top 3)
Charlie Dixon - QLD zone selection
Jack Gunston - 29
7/10 were or were likely to have been gone by the first 11 picks in their draft.
Pretty much every teams' best key fwds were taken in the top 10 or close to it:
GWS: Patton 1, Cameron (would've gone top 3)
WB: Boyd 1, Schache 2
StK: McCartin 1
Haw: Roughead 2
Freo: McCarthy 14
BL: Hipwood 14 (zone selection)
Melb: Hogan 3 (pick 2 in mini draft)
GCS: Lynch 11, Day 3
WCE: Kennedy 3
Port: Dixon QLD zone selection
Ess: Daniher 10 F/S (would've gone top 3)
Geel: Hawkins 41 F/S (would've gone top 3)
Adel: Walker 75 (Scholarship player selection, would've gone 1st rd)
Syd: Franklin 5
Carl: Casboult 89, Curnow 12
Coll: Moore 9
Norf: Brown 47
I don't think it's just us that have trouble drafting/developing tall fwds, I'd say most clubs struggle with it if they're not recruiting them from the high 1st round.
Yeah it's easy to say our strike rate is poor looking purely at the volume of talls we've drafted... Though another way to look at it is we've used 1 top 10 pick in the last 15 years on a tall yet we've still managed to draft/develop a two-time Coleman medallist and the GOAT defender...
Not many other clubs can say the same.
Imo most other clubs have been prepared to get numbers through their system enabling them to find enough good talls which is something we have failed to do
Why top 30 well two reasons. Personally i value top 30 or second round picks, plenty of good kids are available to all clubs here in most drafts. Also in most cases only the most highly rated talls go early top 10 usually only 2 or 3 are taken here at best. The mids go first which sees a lot of highly rated talls drop down the order.
Take this yrs draft just one tall went in the top 10 and just three all up in the top 20. first round over basically and most of the options are there still.
As far as the draft goes imo we have largely ignored talls from 2010 - 2016 . we have taken just one tall each yr and in 2013 none at all.In that time we utilised just one pick inside the top 30 on a tall.
In this time, of those who have developed and become good players for us i cant name one apart from two running types in McIntosh and Broad. it cant be all down to recruiting.
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I think a reason for us taking so few talls from 2010 - 2016 would have to do with GCS/GWS raiding those drafts early on and snapping up most of the highly rated talls from those drafts.
So instead of us using our first picks reaching for the left over talls, we went for the quality smalls that were still around (Conca, B.Ellis, Vlastuin, Lennon, C.Ellis), admittedly Conca has been ruined with injuries, Lennon a bust and C.Ellis an unknown - but B.Ellis and Vlastuin were integral to our premiership run, if we had taken a tall instead of them, would we still be premiers?
Looking at the players drafted between our first pick and pick 30 from 2010-2016:
2010 - We could've taken Lynch at 6 - That's a given, no one else stands out - maybe Darling but he had behavioral concerns and doesn't play key position. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_AFL_draft
2011 - I honestly can't see any quality talls that we could've taken with Ellis' pick that would still be on our list let alone best 22. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_AFL_draft
2012 - Same with 2011, only quality tall I can see is Grundie, but he's a ruck not a fwd/def, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_AFL_draft
2013 - Cam McCarthy, Lobb we could've had though don't think anyone would've taken Lobb with our pick. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_AFL_draft
2014 - Could've had Lever at 12, but again C.Ellis is still quite unknown atm. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_AFL_draft
2015 - Honestly can't see anyone past Rioli we could've drafted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_AFL_draft
2016 - Way too early to see anyone we could've got better with pick 6 than Prestia (who was also crucial to our premiership). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_AFL_draft
Looking through those drafts, at least I find it quite amazing how few quality talls there have been drafted in the 10 - 30 range over these years. Unless we had a time traveller I just think it's near impossible to confidently draft talls in that range and expect them to turn out as quality players.
Dr Tigris
Brownlow Medallist
Course he knows you exist. Doesn't everyone??
In all seriousness (Don't why I would be serious now though) Balta is a medium risk, high return sort. Lots of great traits. Strange disinterest in the AFL, and no real position as yet. To me drafting is a portfolio thing, especially for talls. You pick a heap of talls, knowing most will not succeed. You get the odd success, usually first round, top 10 esp) like JR. But more often you get almosts like Griff or Ty. And you get lots of busts.
CCJ I see as more likely to succeed. Godo ruck and forward, with some elite traits already, and has leadership. But I like it that we know we have a problem 3-4 years away (please God nothing happens to JR), and we are doing something about it. That's all. We know 80%+ of talls will not make it.
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parmy2balmey
stay moderated
we need a mopsy’s tall timber thread stickied on the front page
it’s a worthwhile discussion, just not in every thread
it’s a worthwhile discussion, just not in every thread
Dr Tigris
Brownlow Medallist
Great work. Actually you could drop that into the Draft boards and maybe get a good discussion. For whatever reason top quality KPs tend to stand out, or not. No real in between, like with smaller players.
So if we'd gone tall instead of small we'd probably be where we are, but without some smalls we now have.
The expansion teams really did tear the heart out of the tall talent. I wonder how much teams take this in when they have top 10 picks. Really overload a bit on KPFs. Because that's where you find them.
It is quite interesting, and no doubt recruiting depts have done a lot more research than me and my 10 min google search of drafts have done.
But looking at these drafts from 2010 - 2016, it's safe to say on average there's going to be 1, maybe 2 quality tall players drafted between pick 10 and 30. That's 5% to 10% chance.
Honestly if I were a recruiter I'd focus on smalls in that range if I wanted to maximise my return for that pick...
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Dr Tigris
Brownlow Medallist
Although that's out of how many talls drafted 10-30?
Still it is sort of amazing that talls (forwards esp) outside the top 10 usually don't amount to much.
According to Champion data basically the decent KPF's are top 15 picks, anyone after that rarely makes the grade.Not sure why you used pick 30 as the benchmark, I feel like unless you have a top 10 pick the chance of drafting/developing a quality tall (particularly a fwd) falls significantly.
Here's the AFL rankings top 10 forwards and their draft position:
Lance Franklin - 5
Josh Kennedy - 3
Tom Lynch - 11
Justin Westhoff - 71
Joe Daniher - 10 (F/S selection, would’ve gone top 3)
Tom Hawkins - 41 (F/S selection, would’ve gone top 3)
Taylor Walker - 75 (Scholarship player selection, would've gone 1st rd)
Jeremy Cameron - Underage recruit (would’ve gone top 3)
Charlie Dixon - QLD zone selection
Jack Gunston - 29
7/10 were or were likely to have been gone by the first 11 picks in their draft.
Pretty much every teams' best key fwds were taken in the top 10 or close to it:
GWS: Patton 1, Cameron (would've gone top 3)
WB: Boyd 1, Schache 2
StK: McCartin 1
Haw: Roughead 2
Freo: McCarthy 14
BL: Hipwood 14 (zone selection)
Melb: Hogan 3 (pick 2 in mini draft)
GCS: Lynch 11, Day 3
WCE: Kennedy 3
Port: Dixon QLD zone selection
Ess: Daniher 10 F/S (would've gone top 3)
Geel: Hawkins 41 F/S (would've gone top 3)
Adel: Walker 75 (Scholarship player selection, would've gone 1st rd)
Syd: Franklin 5
Carl: Casboult 89, Curnow 12
Coll: Moore 9
Norf: Brown 47
I don't think it's just us that have trouble drafting/developing tall fwds, I'd say most clubs struggle with it if they're not recruiting them from the high 1st round.
Yeah it's easy to say our strike rate is poor looking purely at the volume of talls we've drafted... Though another way to look at it is we've used 1 top 10 pick in the last 15 years on a tall yet we've still managed to draft/develop a two-time Coleman medallist and the GOAT defender...
Not many other clubs can say the same.
2 x KPB
2 x KPF
1 x Ruck
Simply put 20% of the team selected every week are either KPP and Ruck , Why would you use more than 1 selection on a KPP on average per year in the main draft ? and 1 in the rookie draft
When you consider these players take 5+ years to develop you could possibly have 10 -12 KPP + 3-4 Ruckman on your list , Thats 30%-35% of your list occupied by players that only take up 5 spots in your starting 22 and 5/6 spots in the 2's
The game has moved from the dinosaur types and its a fast moving mobile game that is dominated by hybrid types , The last 2 premierships have proven this and teams like Crow's , GWS have fallen short with all the slow tall timber players
Congratulations Richmond you have proven that Speed , Pressure and Mobility is what it takes
2 x KPF
1 x Ruck
Simply put 20% of the team selected every week are either KPP and Ruck , Why would you use more than 1 selection on a KPP on average per year in the main draft ? and 1 in the rookie draft
When you consider these players take 5+ years to develop you could possibly have 10 -12 KPP + 3-4 Ruckman on your list , Thats 30%-35% of your list occupied by players that only take up 5 spots in your starting 22 and 5/6 spots in the 2's
The game has moved from the dinosaur types and its a fast moving mobile game that is dominated by hybrid types , The last 2 premierships have proven this and teams like Crow's , GWS have fallen short with all the slow tall timber players
Congratulations Richmond you have proven that Speed , Pressure and Mobility is what it takes
I put both Bumbers/carltoon up there as well...
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Hot tigers
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The only reason the best tall forwards are gone by say pick 15 is because that’s where the clubs pick them or I should say value them, who knows the Shia Bolton’s of this world could be going early in the future, although I do understand there are many more players of that height.
I also don’t think height is dead, look at every sport, they keep getting taller, bigger, quicker....
Game plans come and go, the death of KPP imo is incorrect.
Let’s hope we can make hay while the sun shines because unless we trade were waiting a while for replacements to our aging gun talls...
I also don’t think height is dead, look at every sport, they keep getting taller, bigger, quicker....
Game plans come and go, the death of KPP imo is incorrect.
Let’s hope we can make hay while the sun shines because unless we trade were waiting a while for replacements to our aging gun talls...
- Jan 25, 2018
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I think the MO for the 2nd tall that we will play this season is someone that can run and pressure and occasionally give nank a chop out.
I can see us rotating a number of players through the role and am confident first year players like balta and CCJ will get a few games if they show that they are athletically up to halving contests.
I can see us rotating a number of players through the role and am confident first year players like balta and CCJ will get a few games if they show that they are athletically up to halving contests.
Geez that mob are overrated!
Just on the Talls topic. Clubs are only going small or looking to go small as last 2 flags have been won with smalls up fwd. eventually a flag will be won by a side with 2 tall fwds again & suddenly everyone will go "that must be the way to win a flag". AFL is very much a "follow the leader" industry in that respect. When you really think about it the last 2 flags were won not because of smalls up fwd etc it was because both Clubs maximised thier assets.
Yes...both sides played to and maximized their strenghts...whether both by(mis)fortune or design...whether its utilizing talls or shorter players...
I think these last two GFs were a direct result of all priority picks given to the new franchise clubs and a bigger competition which left the talent pool compromised...
The Footy wheel will eventually turn and settle..
On Balta and Moore Garthwaite C-J, without a doubt we should be putting as many games into them as possible. Obviously not all at once.
We dont have any other mature tall players with AFL GAMES behind them or many games at least. When we cop injuries and sooner or later they will come, then we will have to play em anyway without the support of the older talls around them and with no game time behind them.
Lets say we do play say 15 games with just JR and out of the blue he does his knee!!!!!! what then? just throw one of the kids in the deepend to play a lone hand fwd with out a game behind them.
Or lets say the worst thing happens and we lose both JR and AR what then its just two players but we dont even have a player we can bring in with some sort of AFL experience outside of the odd game or two.
We dont have any other mature tall players with AFL GAMES behind them or many games at least. When we cop injuries and sooner or later they will come, then we will have to play em anyway without the support of the older talls around them and with no game time behind them.
Lets say we do play say 15 games with just JR and out of the blue he does his knee!!!!!! what then? just throw one of the kids in the deepend to play a lone hand fwd with out a game behind them.
Or lets say the worst thing happens and we lose both JR and AR what then its just two players but we dont even have a player we can bring in with some sort of AFL experience outside of the odd game or two.
