Player Watch #34: Jack Graham - Part 2

[Hoos]

Current poor form .. that stretches three years.
Everyone on here sees it.

Not everyone.

 

[prodigy]

So Graham doesn't pass the eye test yet you're constantly sprouting rubbish in the defence of Sonsie and Taranto.

You mean the message of being the hardest working player at the club who sacrifices more of his own game and plays the most uncompromising position on the ground.

Yeah we do have bigger problems. It wasn't Graham who was getting his ass handed to him in midfield during the third quarter yesterday whilst Cripps and Walsh did as they pleased.

Sorry for defending a kid that's barely played 20 games and arguably our best and most consistent player...

Trust me, I'm more than willing to die on my hill backing the likes of Taranto and Sonsie rather than the sinking ship that is Graham, but hey, you do you.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Richmond Playing List for 2021 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Do yourself a favour and click that link to refresh your memory on the 2021 season. Check the games played column. He was basically the only player who played all year. All of Prestia, Caddy, Martin, Cotchin, Vlastuin, Edwards, Houli, Astbury, Lambert, McIntosh, Lynch, Nank, Balta and Broad missed massive portions of the season through injury. Castagna and Aarts were similar played most of year. Baker and Bolton were inexperienced kids. His 2nd in the BnF was a reflection on the fact he played the entire season in the guts. He still averaged a paltry 18 touches and was torched week in week out by opponents. Better year than Dow this year but only marginally. Club tried to shop him 2022 but Horne Francis kyboshed that, then his stupid trigger clause snookered us this year. My Job allows me half the night shift to watch TV or sleep. So I used to watch every game 3 times. Check out a 2021 game on kayo for yourself. The 2nd in the BnF that year is a Steven Bradbury. Besides the 2017 GF he's never really done much really.

I said 2021 was a reasonable year with a 2nd in the B&F as a 23yo. I think everyone had reason to be optimistic given players normally hit peak at 25-26yo. In 2021 he had 8 x 20+ disposal games including 2 x 30+.

And his 2020 GF wasn’t too shabby either : 17 touches, 10 contested (equal most on ground), 6 x SI (second most). And of course he was very courageous in 2019 PF to help us over the line.

I’m not a Graham fan and want him to leave as a FA for the team’s benefit, but let’s not act like he’s been hopeless his entire career.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Grrr]

Lol, Baker is older than Graham you goose, and Bolton wasn't that much younger than him(drafted same season) and both had just played in 2 flags. So they were not inexperienced kids at all, or if they were, so was Graham.

Graham and Baker averaged 2.1 votes per game.

Grimes, the winner, averaged 2.3.

Here are the players who played 9+ games by average B & F votes per game played:

2.9 Prestia(9 games only, B & F in flag year)
2.7 Lambert
2.5 Martin(GOAT)
2.4 Broad
2.3 Grimes(AA defender)
2.25 Bolton(5th season on list, born same year as Baker, Graham, and an elite AFL footballer on a marquee wage)
2.1 Graham, Baker, Lynch(marquee wage gun key forward, AA) Vlastuin
2.0 Nankervis(now skipper)
1.9 Cotchin(Triple flag skipper, Brownlow, AA)
1.8 Riewoldt(triple Coleman Medal 3 x AA) Short(previous year B&F in a flag)
1.6 Pickett, McIntosh, Edwards(AA)
1.5 D Rioli, Astbury
1.3 Aarts, Castagna

Graham is equal 7th for average Dyer Medal votes but it has to be tougher to maintain a high level of votes over a whole season than it is for 1/2 to 3/4 of a season. But that is equal 7th in very very hot field. And Bolton was the only player younger than him who averaged more, and it wasn't a lot more and he isn't much younger and Bolton is a superstar.

Graham was roughly the 110th highest rated player in the AFL in 2021, of players playing 10+ matches. This places him around the 6th-7th best player in an average AFL team that year, which is supported by him being =6th highest in our B & F average votes of players playing 10+ games.

That is a genuinely good season from Graham, there would have been a lot more than 7 players paid more than him in 2021. The bloke is not an AFL class inside mid, he is a great transition 2 way runner who was genuinely part of why the team worked so well when it did. He is struggling this year but this is probably to be expected as he is missing more footy than in other seasons and probably having to come back earlier from injury than in those seasons due to necessity.

What's the point of quoting 2021 stats, 3 seasons ago. Irrelevant to how he is going now.

Graham is not the first player to come into a good side and play well. He was a good role player. But role players get you nowhere in bottom 8 sides, much less second bottom. You need players who have something more to drag you up.

Thought he played his best game in a while last week, but this week was probably his worst game for the year.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

What's the point of quoting 2021 stats, 3 seasons ago. Irrelevant to how he is going now.

Graham is not the first player to come into a good side and play well. He was a good role player. But role players get you nowhere in bottom 8 sides, much less second bottom. You need players who have something more to drag you up.

Thought he played his best game in a while last week, but this week was probably his worst game for the year.

My referring to 2021 B&F votes as perfectly on point to the post I was answering.


Do you have a view on why Richmond's win % doubles when Jack Graham plays compared to when he doesn't play over the last 3 seasons, 2022-23-24 inclusive? Could this maybe give some vague clue as to why selectors are so loyal to such a "poor" player, he helps the team's winning prospects?

 

[richoplzbreed]

I said 2021 was a reasonable year with a 2nd in the B&F as a 23yo. I think everyone had reason to be optimistic given players normally hit peak at 25-26yo. In 2021 he had 8 x 20+ disposal games including 2 x 30+.

And his 2020 GF wasn’t too shabby either : 17 touches, 10 contested (equal most on ground), 6 x SI (second most). And of course he was very courageous in 2019 PF to help us over the line.

I’m not a Graham fan and want him to leave as a FA for the team’s benefit, but let’s not act like he’s been hopeless his entire career.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I've never said he was hopeless his "entire" career. I just pointed out how his 2nd in the BnF that year is the most misleading result in club history. Due to sheer weight of games and being a midfielder Dow will likely finish top 10 in our BnF which is a joke. I, like everyone else was fooled by his 2017GF into thinking we had one. His 2nd year blues soon became 3rd, then hang on this blokes bloody ordinary to htf does he keep getting a game.

I am sick of hearing his 2019 PF Chinese Whispered into one of the Labours of Hercules. The way some around here never shut up about it I swear Albert Jacka's family should give all his medals over to puddin such was his feats that day at the G . Graham did exactly what every other player has done numerous times in their career. Houli played 99% of the 2020 GF with a torn calf and played on as wed already lost Vlastuin, yet the Bigfooty board has collective amnesia when it comes to that.

Facts are facts: Blues, Bummers and Crows were salivating over his potential and the club knocked back the eventual Cerra deal to retain him. Several here were savaged for saying they'd gladly take the deal by those who touted him as our next captain (which baffled me as I never had him in my fully fit best 26 let alone best 22).

Fast forward the last few years: the club tried to send him packing to Port and if it wasn't for that meddling Horne Francis we might’ve offloaded his salary and got a reasonable pick (18-25?) that fell through and last year we got trumped by these moronic trigger clauses. His trade currency stocks have plummeted from pick 5 (Carlton) pick 18-25 (Port) to potentially he's delisted and gets a train on role with another club. Tigerimposter was 100% spot on that recent article was a desperate bloke who's manager has gone from fielding several offers to other teams laughing when he tries to shop him around.

A lot of posters round here don't really "HATE" your likes of Graham, Dow, Castagna, Oakley Nicholls, Corey Ellis, RCD, etc... a lot of times why they write scathingly is to stick it up the posters who whacked them repeatedly over the years when they were right all along. Hey I stupidly stated Banks was gonna be a 250 game player with multiple BnF's on the back of seeing his 1st training session and the fact that he grew up drinking the same water as Royce Hart. It's nearly 3 years in and if not for injuries I'm not sure he's in our best 30 and has shown nothing really. But I'm not gonna champion him after 6, 7 or 8 years when he didn't materialise.

 

[Grrr]

My referring to 2021 B&F votes as perfectly on point to the post I was answering.


Do you have a view on why Richmond's win % doubles when Jack Graham plays compared to when he doesn't play over the last 3 seasons, 2022-23-24 inclusive? Could this maybe give some vague clue as to why selectors are so loyal to such a "poor" player, he helps the team's winning prospects?

There would be a multitude of factors, you would have to do sums on who else was in or out, which players were hitting form or not, how many new plays, who gets injured etc etc. To suggest that Graham is the lynch pin in our ability to win or not is very one-dimensional.

Graham had a shocker yesterday, and we lost. We needed him to stand up as we did all the senior player. He has played in 7 games this year for one win, which sort of puts a hole in the theory of winning percentages when Graham is playing.

The selectors are loyal because we have scant depth in our side, and Graham has been constantly hitting about 17 possessions a game, which is possibly better than young players who might replace him. He does some handy defensive work, and has played a few okay game.

For a mainly half forward he has kicked 0.1 goals, so he is helping us almost purely defensively. Perhaps why he is playing, but it is certainly not helping us kick goals and win games. Our selectors have stood behind their players from our glory years, as they should, but it means nought fighting it out for a wooden spoon. Let's have a look at some more youth, or keep playing Graham for perhaps a trade next year, which is wrong.

 

[Forensi Tiger]

My referring to 2021 B&F votes as perfectly on point to the post I was answering.


Do you have a view on why Richmond's win % doubles when Jack Graham plays compared to when he doesn't play over the last 3 seasons, 2022-23-24 inclusive? Could this maybe give some vague clue as to why selectors are so loyal to such a "poor" player, he helps the team's winning prospects?

I reckon these stats of a team’s win loss ratio when one specific player is or isn’t in the team is at the very least overrated if not irrelevant.
Maybe for superstars has some relevance but in a team of 23 players I just don’t think the stat has enough validity.

I think you assess him like others in their individual performances.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I reckon these stats of a team’s win loss ratio when one specific player is or isn’t in the team is at the very least overrated if not irrelevant.
Maybe for superstars has some relevance but in a team of 23 players I just don’t think the stat has enough validity.

I think you assess him like others in their individual performances.

I used to bet for a living.

Any factor that coincides with a team winning more or losing more is cause for an investigation at the very least, to see if it could possibly be part of the cause of the results.

Sometimes you investigate and find it is a false positive or negative, and sometimes you investigate and find it is a true positive or negative, and sometimes you investigate and it is inconclusive so you need to leave the file open to further evidence.

I have not investigated this Jack Graham presence in the team correlating with Richmond's winning percentage doubling over the last 3 seasons. So I don' know. But one group of people who would or ought to be investigating these things in depth are the selectors - and they keep picking him when available. Which is probably a reasonable clue they do not think the correlation is entirely misleading.

How compelling do you find the main alternative theory - that Jack Graham is being selected only due to some misguided sense of loyalty the selectors feel towards Premiership players at the club?

 

[Grrr]

I used to bet for a living.

Any factor that coincides with a team winning more or losing more is cause for an investigation at the very least, to see if it could possibly be part of the cause of the results.

Sometimes you investigate and find it is a false positive or negative, and sometimes you investigate and find it is a true positive or negative, and sometimes you investigate and it is inconclusive so you need to leave the file open to further evidence.

I have not investigated this Jack Graham presence in the team correlating with Richmond's winning percentage doubling over the last 3 seasons. So I don' know. But one group of people who would or ought to be investigating these things in depth are the selectors - and they keep picking him when available. Which is probably a reasonable clue they do not think the correlation is entirely misleading.

How compelling do you find the main alternative theory - that Jack Graham is being selected only due to some misguided sense of loyalty the selectors feel towards Premiership players at the club?

That's supposition, you have no idea if selectors are factoring in winning percentages into their selection, in fact I would be far more inclined to believe they are using their football knowledge and intuition as to why a player is playing. Graham's defensive qualities they think are more important than his offensive for example. That is why they are coaches and not betting for a living.

Graham is not without worth, I think most posters on here see some value in his game. But we are battling it out for a wooden spoon, so let's try some new faces, throw around the magnets a bit. Look what Blight did in his first game.

Now is the time to start working on a plan for next year, which I would be surprised more than just Graham might not be a part of. Rebuilding means changing the old guard with the new, and beginning with the least performing players.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That's supposition, you have no idea if selectors are factoring in winning percentages into their selection, in fact I would be far more inclined to believe they are using their football knowledge and intuition as to why a player is playing. Graham's defensive qualities they think are more important than his offensive for example. That is why they are coaches and not betting for a living.

Graham is not without worth, I think most posters on here see some value in his game. But we are battling it out for a wooden spoon, so let's try some new faces, throw around the magnets a bit. Look what Blight did in his first game.

Now is the time to start working on a plan for next year, which I would be surprised more than just Graham might not be a part of. Rebuilding means changing the old guard with the new, and beginning with the least performing players.

If we were to just focus on the part of your post I have bolded there Grrr, I think even you would agree that is an amusing suggestion in a season where 41 players have already played 15 games into the season and the team has basically never been stable one week to the next.

When you say let's start working on the plan for next year, do you seriously believe the club is not already doing that? With no disrespect meant, I don't think they would be getting to the end of 2024 and starting 2025 and at a selection/coach's meeting some bright spark suddenly realise that maybe we should have started working towards 2025 from some earlyish point in 2024, and then point that out to the rest of the group, who would all say oh yeah, why didn't we think of that back then.

The club will clearly be working towards the future as of quite a lot of weeks ago, and playing Graham in these recent games will no doubt form a small part of some overall plan. Maybe they were waiting for Coulthard to find some form, and they might make a change now? Who knows, they are never going to explain their thinking in detail publicly, but it can be assumed there is some thinking at the bottom of every inclusion and exclusion from the team.

 

[Hank Heavenly]

How compelling do you find the main alternative theory - that Jack Graham is being selected only due to some misguided sense of loyalty the selectors feel towards Premiership players at the club?

Well given I don't think anyone here could argue he is a top 10 player of ours, and given hhe is rushed back from injury every single time, without ever having to play in the twos (and sometimes that's to his detriment IMO), then yes, there is some form of bias there, whether thats due to past performances (I think Dimma gave him everything after playing the prelim with the dislocated shoulder), whther it's premierships, whether it's the fact they are one of the most liked players on the list (maybe look at Kmac)...

But is does appear some bias, rather than form or output

 

[Sol23]

Don’t buy into the experience bs and we have to many injuries. He’s not up to it anymore and should be dropped. Don’t care who comes in for him.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Well given I don't think anyone here could argue he is a top 10 player of ours, and given hhe is rushed back from injury every single time, without ever having to play in the twos (and sometimes that's to his detriment IMO), then yes, there is some form of bias there, whether thats due to past performances (I think Dimma gave him everything after playing the prelim with the dislocated shoulder), whther it's premierships, whether it's the fact they are one of the most liked players on the list (maybe look at Kmac)...

But is does appear some bias, rather than form or output

You think that selector bias is a more realistic explanation for Graham being selected than the selectors noticing that the team performs better with Graham in it than it does when he doesn't play?

You would surely believe the selectors would be privy to footage, stats and knowledge of game plan that we as supporters do not have? But you think they take this knowledge and say well Coulthard/Cumberland/Green is clearly a better option than Jack Graham but Dimma used to love Graham so you know what, let's pick Graham over a better player.

That doesn't strike me as too likely HH.

 

[Wooden Robot]

You think that selector bias is a more realistic explanation for Graham being selected than the selectors noticing that the team performs better with Graham in it than it does when he doesn't play?

You would surely believe the selectors would be privy to footage, stats and knowledge of game plan that we as supporters do not have? But you think they take this knowledge and say well Coulthard/Cumberland/Green is clearly a better option than Jack Graham but Dimma used to love Graham so you know what, let's pick Graham over a better player.

That doesn't strike me as too likely HH.

Proof will be in the pudding when - after stinking it up again against the Blues with his 35% disposal efficiency and coping a dose of wind burn from Carlton player after player sprinting past him - he'll be the first magnet on the board again.

 

[Grrr]

When you say let's start working on the plan for next year, do you seriously believe the club is not already doing that? With no disrespect meant, I don't think they would be getting to the end of 2024 and starting 2025 and at a selection/coach's meeting some bright spark suddenly realise that maybe we should have started working towards 2025 from some earlyish point in 2024, and then point that out to the rest of the group, who would all say oh yeah, why didn't we think of that back then.

The club will clearly be working towards the future as of quite a lot of weeks ago, and playing Graham in these recent games will no doubt form a small part of some overall plan. Maybe they were waiting for Coulthard to find some form, and they might make a change now? Who knows, they are never going to explain their thinking in detail publicly, but it can be assumed there is some thinking at the bottom of every inclusion and exclusion from the team.

Of course going into seasons with the next season in mind would be part of their planning, I was referring to doing the numbers in regard to winning percentages with certain players in the team or not.

On the second point I think we are in agreement in many ways, I have stated that Graham has some merit in regard to certain points, I just think now might be the time to throw caution to the wind a bit and start playing some more new players. For example, I would like to see Grey come into the forward line, is that at the expense of Graham, maybe.

 

[Hank Heavenly]

You think that selector bias is a more realistic explanation for Graham being selected than the selectors noticing that the team performs better with Graham in it than it does when he doesn't play?

You would surely believe the selectors would be privy to footage, stats and knowledge of game plan that we as supporters do not have? But you think they take this knowledge and say well Coulthard/Cumberland/Green is clearly a better option than Jack Graham but Dimma used to love Graham so you know what, let's pick Graham over a better player.

That doesn't strike me as too likely HH.

Of course bias plays a part... Infact I would say bias plays a part with every coach.

Sometimes that bias works in your favour, other times it doesn't.

I'm not saying Dimma's bias is what's selecting Graham now. But that doesn't also mean that there are not differnt bias at play.

It could be as simple as, they believe grahams poor performace has more merit than a good performance from Green as an example.

They might be banking on getting his best performance every week (even though we are not seeing it) and saying his best is better than player X, so we will pick them based on their best output (rather than current form output). Bias means that coaches will put up with a form slump longer with some players than others (again based on a baseline that they value).

Heck, our match committee may look at his running stats and say he's working his arse off, it will come eventually...
Irrelevant whether he is having an impact or not.


None of us are privvy too what the MC value, nor do we really know what they are asking each player to do each week, so in teh end we are all just guessing...

 

[TigerImposter]

JGTI manager waiting for a call