Player Watch #36: Kozzy Pickett – stacking up with the best after 100 games

[danster168]

Guy who is out of contract and could leave right now signing on for two years is proof he doesn't want to be at the club and guarantees he'll leave after his next contract. How do you even work your way through those mental gymnastics.

Yeah, 'guarantees' may have been too strong of a word. However, you mentioned he could leave right now but at the same time he could also sign long term with us right now right. So it works both ways. How long would the deal be that we put to Pickett at any point in these discussions do you think? I wouldn't be surprised if we put a 7 or 8 year deal towards him at some point.

I don't think Tim Lamb will be thrilled about a 2 year contract. As Dory said, it may be for more money but my opinion differs as I personally think Pickett's value could not be any higher right now. He has nothing to prove. Pickett can also diminish his value over the next 2 years. You could say the same thing about Jackson. But fast forward 5 rounds into the next season and he's not worth anywhere near the value that Freo offered him. I would suggest guys like Sam Darcy is another one who is worth less now than the end of last season. Tom De Koning's value has also diminished. Pickett's time is now. At a time where small forwards are taking over the competition in Rachele, Rankin, Papley etc.

I'd be content with a 2 year extension, but just not happy. no mental gymnastics here. Just my opinion.

 

[Topkent]

Now players value diminish 5 games into a contract

The bants are endless

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

If I were a gun player in the AFL like a Bont or whoever I’d think about doing rolling 1 year deals. Back yourself in and get maximum value, you’re probably ****ed if you do a knee but each year you’d be signing at your true market worth.

But then again, if I were Angus Brayshaw I’d just sign a 7 year deal and get on the donuts

As a player id want deals as long as possible if you've reached a pinacle like Bont or Trac etc, coz you aren't going to get any better than you are now.

When you give it to average players who rely on hard work like Brayshaw or with players based on potential like Jackson youre asking for trouble.

5 year deals should only be reserved for the best of the best imo, basically one or two players per team. Curnow and Cameron would be the two id break my own rules and the bank for right now and go 6+ if I had to.

 

[Bluelegs]

Yeah, 'guarantees' may have been too strong of a word. However, you mentioned he could leave right now but at the same time he could also sign long term with us right now right. So it works both ways. How long would the deal be that we put to Pickett at any point in these discussions do you think? I wouldn't be surprised if we put a 7 or 8 year deal towards him at some point.

I don't think Tim Lamb will be thrilled about a 2 year contract. As Dory said, it may be for more money but my opinion differs as I personally think Pickett's value could not be any higher right now. He has nothing to prove. Pickett can also diminish his value over the next 2 years. You could say the same thing about Jackson. But fast forward 5 rounds into the next season and he's not worth anywhere near the value that Freo offered him. I would suggest guys like Sam Darcy is another one who is worth less now than the end of last season. Tom De Koning's value has also diminished. Pickett's time is now. At a time where small forwards are taking over the competition in Rachele, Rankin, Papley etc.

I'd be content with a 2 year extension, but just not happy. no mental gymnastics here. Just my opinion.

Fair enough but I would think Pickett and his management might have a different idea as to his value and it's ceiling than you do. If we sign him on for two years and his value goes down then it means his performances have diminished, which means we would need to pay him less or it wouldn't hurt us much if he left anyway. If he falls apart two years into a 6 or 8 year deal then we're screwed.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Yeah, 'guarantees' may have been too strong of a word. However, you mentioned he could leave right now but at the same time he could also sign long term with us right now right. So it works both ways. How long would the deal be that we put to Pickett at any point in these discussions do you think? I wouldn't be surprised if we put a 7 or 8 year deal towards him at some point.

I don't think Tim Lamb will be thrilled about a 2 year contract. As Dory said, it may be for more money but my opinion differs as I personally think Pickett's value could not be any higher right now. He has nothing to prove. Pickett can also diminish his value over the next 2 years. You could say the same thing about Jackson. But fast forward 5 rounds into the next season and he's not worth anywhere near the value that Freo offered him. I would suggest guys like Sam Darcy is another one who is worth less now than the end of last season. Tom De Koning's value has also diminished. Pickett's time is now. At a time where small forwards are taking over the competition in Rachele, Rankin, Papley etc.

I'd be content with a 2 year extension, but just not happy. no mental gymnastics here. Just my opinion.

But he’s unlikely to get as much/more money from a longer term deal.

He could well have communicated with the club: I’m all in but I want to know the dollars/year terms ratio.

It could be something like:
2 years @ 800k pa
4 years @ 700k pa
5 years @ 650k pa
8 years @ 600k pa

He could well look at that and think I do a two year deal, play well and get an >$800k pa deal the next time round. The salary cap+ inflation makes sense that while I’m young I sign short term for big cash.

 

[danster168]

I don’t wish to pile in, but, we must trade him when contracted to get an extra first round pick is interesting logic too.

North opted to trade Horne-Francis and not keep him to his contract because they knew that if they waited an extra season then they'd miss out on getting the the draft capital they deserved. I'm not saying it's the same situation as Pickett but the idea of getting shafted at the trade table is definitely in the thinking of list bosses.

 

[Johnny Karate]

As a player id want deals as long as possible if you've reached a pinacle like Bont or Trac etc, coz you aren't going to get any better than you are now.

When you give it to average players who rely on hard work like Brayshaw or with players based on potential like Jackson youre asking for trouble.

5 year deals should only be reserved for the best of the best imo, basically one or two players per team. Curnow and Cameron would be the two id break my own rules and the bank for right now and go 6+ if I had to.

I can see what you’re saying, particularly for players in the back end of their career but if you were an absolute gun like Chris Judd when he was 24 and younger you could get a shitload of money every year.

 

[Topkent]

I can see what you’re saying, particularly for players in the back end of their career but if you were an absolute gun like Chris Judd when he was 24 and younger you could get a shitload of money every year.

Probably in a scenario where if your clubs falls away from a top team to a rebuilding one, instead of 1.2 you could do 2 at 1.6 if there's extra salary room but I think anyone's happy with the guaranteed 1.2 over 6 type thing.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I can see what you’re saying, particularly for players in the back end of their career but if you were an absolute gun like Chris Judd when he was 24 and younger you could get a shitload of money every year.

Its a dangerous game to play though over an extra ~ 500k to 1m. One knee injury and you've blown the chance lock in 5 or 6 years at 1m+

Maybe some club would be willing to give you that still, but the amount of club who would go down significantly.

 

[Johnny Karate]

North opted to trade Horne-Francis and not keep him to his contract because they knew that if they waited an extra season then they'd miss out on getting the the draft capital they deserved. I'm not saying it's the same situation as Pickett but the idea of getting shafted at the trade table is definitely in the thinking of list bosses.

We still got 2 first rounders for Jackson who was out of contract. If someone came for Pickett and offered $800k + for him, they’re hardly going to say how does pick 30 & Trent McKenzie sound?

Port offered a lot of money for Horne-Francis based on upside as much as anything, the risk for North was him sitting out/spudding/sooking it up in year 2, then Port offer him less money and North less in a trade which is market value.

 

[danster168]

But he’s unlikely to get as much/more money from a longer term deal.

He could well have communicated with the club: I’m all in but I want to know the dollars/year terms ratio.

It could be something like:
2 years @ 800k pa
4 years @ 700k pa
5 years @ 650k pa
8 years @ 600k pa

He could well look at that and think I do a two year deal, play well and get an >$800k pa deal the next time round. The salary cap+ inflation makes sense that while I’m young I sign short term for big cash.

yeah I do agree with this. the longer the term the less the cash. So if he ends up leaving and he goes to say a Port Adelaide then you're suggesting that he'd also only accept a short 2 year contract on the same grounds? I just can't recall too many high profile guns of the competition moving interstate on big dollar on a minimum 2 year contract?

 

[Johnny Karate]

yeah I do agree with this. the longer the term the less the cash. So if he ends up leaving and he goes to say a Port Adelaide then you're suggesting that he'd also only accept a short 2 year contract on the same grounds? I just can't recall too many high profile guns of the competition moving interstate on big dollar on a minimum 2 year contract?

As discussed in previous posts and might depend on the stage of his career/life. I.e. if he’s still young, dumb and full of fun he might back himself for 2 year deals on big money but if he has family to look after he might go the security of a longer term with less cash p.a.

 

[danster168]

We still got 2 first rounders for Jackson who was out of contract. If someone came for Pickett and offered $800k + for him, they’re hardly going to say how does pick 30 & Trent McKenzie sound?

Port offered a lot of money for Horne-Francis based on upside as much as anything, the risk for North was him sitting out/spudding/spoiling it up in year 2, then Pott offer him less money and North less in a trade which is market value.

Yeah true. But as Tim Lamb said 'there's first rounders and there's first rounders' and at the time of trading with freo both the first rounders were considered late first rounders, picks in the teens. Yeah, definitely not pick 30 and Trent McKenzie (lol) but the only pick Port could give us this is a future 1. In contract, we simply wouldn't let him go unless we're offered 2 first rounders and 1 in the top 5. We hold all the chips. That's got to count for something?

 

[Johnny Karate]

Yeah true. But as Tim Lamb said 'there's first rounders and there's first rounders' and at the time of trading with freo both the first rounders were considered late first rounders, picks in the teens. Yeah, definitely not pick 30 and Trent McKenzie (lol) but the only pick Port could give us this is a future 1. In contract, we simply wouldn't let him go unless we're offered 2 first rounders and 1 in the top 5. We hold all the chips. That's got to count for something?

But then Port say I’ve tried asking the universe for a top 5 pick but we don’t actually have one, so we’ll see you next year when we might have even less than what we’re offering now.

I wish the AFL worked where you could just say Luke Jackson is a pick 3 with runs on the board so that = pick 1 or 2 top 10 picks. Or Kysaiah Pickett is a former pick 12 who is one of the best small forwards in the league so that = a top 5 pick. I really do.

However, the reality is that if a player decides to leave they nominate a club of preference for ease of negotiations. That club can then only offer what they have to get the deal done. Then the club losing the player can choose to accept that or risk losing the player for absolutely nothing. Despite all the Dodoro/Bell memes, most clubs are generally pretty reasonable in their dealings.

 

[Saab NLAW]

In the past I used to get solid news from the club back when Schwab was there on his 2nd stint (he wasn't my source though), i was a player sponsor and had a good relationship with heaps of people in there.

These days, not so much. Occasionally i hear something but it's generally 2nd hand so not as trustworthy and not a source that I'm willing to put my rep on the line with. But FWIW the current jungle drums chatter is that there is no other club been considered, which is consistent with all the current media speculation.

 

[Johnny Karate]

In the past I used to get solid news from the club back when Schwab was there on his 2nd stint (he wasn't my source though), i was a player sponsor and had a good relationship with heaps of people in there.

These days, not so much. Occasionally i hear something but it's generally 2nd hand so not as trustworthy and not a source that I'm willing to put my rep on the line with. But FWIW the current jungle drums chatter is that there is no other club been considered, which is consistent with all the current media speculation.

To clarify: does “no other club being considered” mean he’s only interested in signing at Melbourne?

Also, are you willing to knock anyone’s teeth out over this?

 

[Saab NLAW]

To clarify: does “no other club being considered” mean he’s only interested in signing at Melbourne?

Also, are you willing to knock anyone’s teeth out over this?

I'll cry in my wheeties if he goes, does that count? I was tossing up whether to post this because if he does go then I'll look like an idiot on BF

But yes JK, that's how we interpreted it, he's not considering any other club, there appears to be low stress levels about the situation too, completely different to Jackson from last year

 

[Johnny Karate]

I'll cry in my wheeties if he goes, does that count? I was tossing up whether to post this because if he does go then I'll look like an idiot on BF

But yes JK, that's how we interpreted it, he's not considering any other club, there appears to be low stress levels about the situation too, completely different to Jackson from last year

No worries, I like when people are willing to share but also understand that things can change, info could be bad or it could just be trolling bullshit.

If he does go just double down that something “changed” and make threats of physical violence to anyone who questions your credibility.

 

[Dancing Potato]

No worries, I like when people are willing to share but also understand that things can change, info could be bad or it could just be trolling bullshit.

If he does go just double down that something “changed” and make threats of physical violence to anyone who questions your credibility.

Basically just have a few too many beers and a full mental breakdown.

 

[Tulip]

Why are we trying to win contracts? Kozzie is more valuable to us than the capital of letting him go when contracted. If he stays for two more years, and even if goes afterwards, I'll still crack a cold one that I get to watch him play for the Dees for longer. If he goes now, it'll just be sad.

 

[Dancing Potato]

Why are we trying to win contracts? Kozzie is more valuable to us than the capital of letting him go when contracted. If he stays for two more years, and even if goes afterwards, I'll still crack a cold one that I get to watch him play for the Dees for longer. If he goes now, it'll just be sad.

I think it's all just hypotheticals and spitballing but in essence you're right - we just want the guy to stay even if we overpay/over-extend a bit.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

What if I told you Saab NLAW is Grimsey's new account

 

[Johnny Karate]

What if I told you Saab NLAW is Grimsey's new account

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

morpheus should have kept his hand with the red pill closed and punched Neo's teeth out with it instead

 

[Johnny Karate]

morpheus should have kept his hand with the red pill closed and punched Neo's teeth out with it instead