80k + crowds

[manicmagpie]

Well the largest crowd for nrl was a double header, Parramatta vs St George Illawarra followed by manly vs Newcastle got 104583
But the highest crowd for a single game was Brisbane vs St George got 58593

It's worth pointing out here that Colingwood's average crowd for the home and away season last year was higher than the biggest single home and away game ever seen in rugby league.

But I'm sure that Canterbury are a bigger club than us.

 

[gaelictiogar]

Rivalry and historical significance of the game plays a big factor as well

Take Essendon-Carlton, both clubs consider the rivalry in the top 2, if not the biggest rivalry either sides plays against each other, they therefore generally draw a healthy crowd of members/supporters to games against each other because it is a game both sets of fans mark down as a marquee fixture…obviously this has an impact when the clubs are at the top but it also provides attendance ‘padding’ when clubs are on or near the bottom (2006 aside)

Compare that to a lower profile game – i.e. Essendon-W Bulldogs or Carlton-Nth Melbourne and it’s reasonable to suggest that rivalries have a padding effect on attendances.

Naturally these rivalry games are generally played earlier in the season when both sides are in contention, in better weather, in the best timeslots etc. which ensures that at least one game a year has conditions that should maximise attendance (as MightyHawk pointed out) and therefore increasing the margin on high drawing games.

The inflated attendances at the 'blockbuster' games are driven by a number of factors; drawing power, history, fixturing, weather conditions, promotion.

All true Hawkk but it is also true that the simple truth that these clubs have the largest core fanbases anyway is the crucial factor. Attendance is not so much "inflated" as simply big anyway.

EG with both clubs in the bottom 8 Carlton V Essendon since 1995 average 48,000. I haven't done the stats for other rivalries ( I must do so it will be interesting ) but I suspect few match ups with both clubs bottom 8 draw an average of over 40,000 and very few ( Big 4 plus QB I reckon ) over 45,000.

Some match ups are just big match ups irrespective of weather, timeslot etc. because they are matching the biggest core fanbases though of course all those factors you suggest impact.

 

[serenityNow]

Don't we already play all the interstaters at the Dome? Can't remember a game at the MCG against any of them in recent times.

yeah we do, i was just saying that it would be better for us if we played only the interstate sides there. At the moment we play StKilda, Hawthorn and Geelong at the dome yearly.....yet the last time we played those sides at the g we pulled well over 50k and would've made more money.

Also i have thought for a while that the Carlton vs Hawthorn game has the potential to be a very big yearly game for both clubs. This game should be at the G and given the chance to grow, having it at the dome is useless.

 

[gaelictiogar]

yeah we do, i was just saying that it would be better for us if we played only the interstate sides there. At the moment we play StKilda, Hawthorn and Geelong at the dome yearly.....yet the last time we played those sides at the g we pulled well over 50k and would've made more money.

Also i have thought for a while that the Carlton vs Hawthorn game has the potential to be a very big yearly game for both clubs. This game should be at the G and given the chance to grow, having it at the dome is useless.

Carl V Hawt is one of those games that has the potential as long as both clubs are top 8 and going like a live chance. Problem is there are many such match ups and they shrivel once the match up loses appeal. Carlton against more or less every non Big 4 Vic club is among these games.

Unless we start playing more or less every Victorian match up at the G we are stuck with playing some at the Dome. With more home games for Vic teams against interstaters ( Suns and GWS ) coming down the track the issue will lose some relevance.

 

[Hawkk]

Carl V Hawt is one of those games that has the potential as long as both clubs are top 8 and going like a live chance. Problem is there are many such match ups and they shrivel once the match up loses appeal. Carlton against more or less every non Big 4 Vic club is among these games.

Unless we start playing more or less every Victorian match up at the G we are stuck with playing some at the Dome. With more home games for Vic teams against interstaters ( Suns and GWS ) coming down the track the issue will lose some relevance.

Disagree with this

IN every season since 2004 that Carlton and Hawthorn have played at Ethiad (including 2004-06 when both clubs were outside the 8) the games have drawn 45,000+ (85%+ capacity)

In 2002, 2003 and 2005 the clubs played each other mid/late season and drew ho-hum numbers (40k, 32k and 36k) but were comparable to the Essendon and Richmond games for these seasons.

The only time Carlton and Hawthorn have played at the MCG over the last 5 years they drew a crowd of 70,000.

Carlton-Hawthorn has potential to be substantially larger drawing game (like the Essendon/Hawthorn) given the historical links; having shared home grounds for 20 years and being the 2 most successful clubs in the 1970s and 1980s.

Like Geelong-Collingwood prior to 2007 (dating back to the early 1950s), the Blues-Hawks is an example of an unfulfilled rivalry

 

[McCrann]

Another indicator: Home Games (70,000+)

Collingwood 37 (Select games at the MCG since 1980s, 2000- MCG)
Essendon 25 (1992-1999 MCG, Select games at MCG since 2000)
Richmond 23 (1965 – MCG)
Carlton 22 (Select games at the MCG since the 1990s)
Melbourne 16 (1897- MCG)
Hawthorn 7 (1992-1999 Waverley, 2000- MCG)
Geelong 4 (Select MCG games since the late 1980s)
St Kilda 2 (1992-1999 at Waverley)

Looking at these numbers Carlton and Geelong are the clubs that really stands out given that for most of their history they have played games at Princes Park and Kardina Park (aside from the obvious re: Collingwood)

Melbourne have clearly had a clear advantage having spent 110 years at the MCG (12 pre 1971) ditto Richmond (14 pre 1983)

Interestingly over the last 10 years the numbers have squared up to an extent

Collingwood 13
Carlton 8
Richmond 6
Essendon 5
Hawthorn 5
Geelong 3
Melbourne 2
St Kilda 0

We didn’t have a 70,000+ crowd in Melbourne between 2003-05, interestingly Essendon have only played in 5 home games that have drawn 70,000+ (2 ANZAC Day games) as compared to 17 pre 2000 (mostly 1992-1999) while Melbourne have a pretty strong showing (albeit all QB games)

Not surprisingly all Hawthorn (2008 -) and Geelong (2007 - ) have been over the last 5 years

Richmond and Carlton's numbers are obviously strong given there lack of success over the preceding 10 years...both are stronger than Essendon (who have played in 4 finals series compared to Carlton (2) and Richmond (0))

*In 2000-01 Collingwood played 5 home games that pulled 70k+, Essendon 3 games, Richmond 3 games, Carlton 2 games and Melbourne 1 game.

With regards to the Home/Away game split

Remarkably every game that Melbourne has drawn 70,000+ to (all 16) were home games, 7/8 Hawthorn games have been home games while 23/34 Richmond games were also home games.

By comparison 12/16 Geelong games were away games, 25/52 Essendon games, 25/47 Carlton games were away games and 42/79 Collingwood games were away games

To be fair to Melbourne - its not like the MCG could accomodate 70,000+ in 1897! I think the first crowd of 70,000+ in the VFL was the 1933 Grand Final (South Melbourne d Richmond).

As for my club, the Saints. We have hardly played any games at the MCG. But we did attract 70,000+ to Waverley playing the Tiges in the 90s. That was definitely a holiday induced crowd. Nice day.

In recent years of the home games we have had at the MCG.
St. Kilda v Richmond (2011) - 41,465. Poor crowd, no doubt.
St. Kilda v Geelong (2010) - 58,208. Without persistent showers this would have attracted 65,000+ for sure. On a Saturday night - 70,000+ would have been likely. The Rain cruelled this crowd though.
St. Kilda v Richmond (2006) - 43,250.
St. Kilda v Hawthorn (2003) - 25,745
St. Kilda v Hawthorn (2000) - 21,744.

I think these last two crowds reflect on both teams, although we were a pretty terrible outfit in 2000-2002 and were only on the improve late in 2003.

Of the 5 home games we've played at the MCG - only 1 of those could be said to have had a chance at 70,000+ and that was a wet wet old night. I know a lot of people who decided not to go because of the rain.

Overall, 2008-2011 we have played 19 games at the MCG.
Home & Away: 9 (Including 5 for 2008-2010 & 4 this year already)
Finals: 10

St. Kilda MCG Crowds
Home & Away: (55,658, 52135, 36748, 58208, 81386, 42869, 41465, 42453, 62991) Average MCG Home & Away Crowd: 52,657.

Finals: (71,653, 76707, 77002, 84213, 78245, 99251, 63608, 62694, 100016, 93853) Average MCG Finals Crowd: 80,724

Average MCG Crowd (2008-2011): 67,429. Not too bad considering our history.

 

[gaelictiogar]

Disagree with this

IN every season since 2004 that Carlton and Hawthorn have played at Ethiad (including 2004-06 when both clubs were outside the 8) the games have drawn 45,000+ (85%+ capacity)

In 2002, 2003 and 2005 the clubs played each other mid/late season and drew ho-hum numbers (40k, 32k and 36k) but were comparable to the Essendon and Richmond games for these seasons.

The only time Carlton and Hawthorn have played at the MCG over the last 5 years they drew a crowd of 70,000.

Carlton-Hawthorn has potential to be substantially larger drawing game (like the Essendon/Hawthorn) given the historical links; having shared home grounds for 20 years and being the 2 most successful clubs in the 1970s and 1980s.

Like Geelong-Collingwood prior to 2007 (dating back to the early 1950s), the Blues-Hawks is an example of an unfulfilled rivalry

I think 2 of the Carl V Hawt games at the Dome stand out as genuinely good attendances. Those since 2006 would be expected given ladder position. The 2004 and 2005 games were played against a backdrop of very poor ladder position for both clubs and drew very well......curiously enough better than the 7 game MCG average of 44,052 at the MCG since 2000!!

Bizarrely since 2000 the games at the Dome outdraw those at the G.

 

[Hawkk]

I think 2 of the Carl V Hawt games at the Dome stand out as genuinely good attendances. Those since 2006 would be expected given ladder position. The 2004 and 2005 games were played against a backdrop of very poor ladder position for both clubs and drew very well......curiously enough better than the 7 game MCG average of 44,052 at the MCG since 2000!!

Bizarrely since 2000 the games at the Dome outdraw those at the G.

We did play 6 of those 7 games MCG games before 2007 and all mid to late in the season as compared to prime time games at Docklands.

My point is, you don’t need 2 traditional Big Four clubs to develop and build up a rivalry, clubs that are on the peripheral are just as capable of drawing crowds to these ‘blockbuster’ games with the right conditions.

The driving factors behind these games are form, historical links and scheduling.

 

[Domenic Fotia]

Have expanded the thesis to include 60k to 70k crowds. While there are some new games included the same trend continued (ie there were still more Coll v Carl games in this category).

37 Coll v Carl
35 Coll v Ess
27 Carl v Ess
26 Coll v Rich
20 Coll v Melb

18 Ess v Rich
13 Carl v Rich
12 Coll v Geel

7 Ess v Geel, Coll v StK, Coll v Haw
6 Ess v Melb, Geel v Haw

4 Coll v Nth, Swans v Coll
3 Geel v Melb, Carl v Geel, Ess v Haw, Coll v Bull, Rich v Nth
2 Rich v Melb, Rich v Geel, Melb v Stk, Ess v Nth, Rich v Bull, Ess v Swans
1 Haw v Swans, Rich v Stk, Haw v Carl, Swans v Stk, Swans v WCE, Coll v Bris, Ess v StK, Nth v Bull, Ess v Bull, Carl v Nth, Melb v Haw, Carl v Melb

 

[gaelictiogar]

Have expanded the thesis to include 60k to 70k crowds. While there are some new games included the same trend continued (ie there were still more Coll v Carl games in this category).

37 Coll v Carl
35 Coll v Ess
27 Carl v Ess
26 Coll v Rich
20 Coll v Melb

18 Ess v Rich
13 Carl v Rich
12 Coll v Geel

7 Ess v Geel, Coll v StK, Coll v Haw
6 Ess v Melb, Geel v Haw

4 Coll v Nth, Swans v Coll
3 Geel v Melb, Carl v Geel, Ess v Haw, Coll v Bull, Rich v Nth
2 Rich v Melb, Rich v Geel, Melb v Stk, Ess v Nth, Rich v Bull, Ess v Swans
1 Haw v Swans, Rich v Stk, Haw v Carl, Swans v Stk, Swans v WCE, Coll v Bris, Ess v StK, Nth v Bull, Ess v Bull, Carl v Nth, Melb v Haw, Carl v Melb

Very interesting stats Dominic and a lot of trawling around to get them.

Speaking as a tiger fan I'd be fascinated to look at those top 8 crowd draws and analyse the percentage of 60K+ and 60K- attendances each rivalry attracted when both clubs were top 8 and when neither were top 8 thus making a comparison taking ladder position into account. EG I very much suspect ( I know ) that the 27 Carlton V Essendon figure and the 18 Essendon V Richmond figure would be much closer, probably almost inseparable, if we look only at Carl/Rich finalling years or Carlton/Richmond non finalling years. Equally the tiny gap between Collingwood V Geelong and Carlton V Richmond would lenghten considerably. The Collingwood V Richmond figure relative to the others would also shoot up.

That said that is a fairly one eyed tiger look at the thing and great work on the figures bud.

 

[Koutou43]

Have expanded the thesis to include 60k to 70k crowds. While there are some new games included the same trend continued (ie there were still more Coll v Carl games in this category).

37 Coll v Carl
35 Coll v Ess
27 Carl v Ess
26 Coll v Rich
20 Coll v Melb

18 Ess v Rich
13 Carl v Rich
12 Coll v Geel

7 Ess v Geel, Coll v StK, Coll v Haw
6 Ess v Melb, Geel v Haw

4 Coll v Nth, Swans v Coll
3 Geel v Melb, Carl v Geel, Ess v Haw, Coll v Bull, Rich v Nth
2 Rich v Melb, Rich v Geel, Melb v Stk, Ess v Nth, Rich v Bull, Ess v Swans
1 Haw v Swans, Rich v Stk, Haw v Carl, Swans v Stk, Swans v WCE, Coll v Bris, Ess v StK, Nth v Bull, Ess v Bull, Carl v Nth, Melb v Haw, Carl v Melb

Great work. Close to the best post I have seen on BF.

 

[Hawkk]

Very interesting stats Dominic and a lot of trawling around to get them.

Speaking as a tiger fan I'd be fascinated to look at those top 8 crowd draws and analyse the percentage of 60K+ and 60K- attendances each rivalry attracted when both clubs were top 8 and when neither were top 8 thus making a comparison taking ladder position into account. EG I very much suspect ( I know ) that the 27 Carlton V Essendon figure and the 18 Essendon V Richmond figure would be much closer, probably almost inseparable, if we look only at Carl/Rich finalling years or Carlton/Richmond non finalling years. Equally the tiny gap between Collingwood V Geelong and Carlton V Richmond would lenghten considerably. The Collingwood V Richmond figure relative to the others would also shoot up.

That said that is a fairly one eyed tiger look at the thing and great work on the figures bud.

This can be deceptive given that for the majority of 'blockbuster' game are played early in the season thus the impact of being a top 8 or a bottom 8 side is minimized compared to later part of the season, a more realistic comparison would be comparing 60k+ attendances between top 8 and bottom 8 clubs after round 15.

Strictly from a Hawks perspective its interesting to see that the Geelong/Hawthorn clashes will soon equal Essendon/Geelong and Hawthorn/Collingwood given that the clubs have only ever played 8 home and away games at the MCG.

That's a 75% strike rate of games.

If both clubs can continue playing on Easter Monday, the game is well and truely on its way to becoming a marque rivalry.

Further to the stats it would be interesting to compare the 60,000+ attendances amongst clubs between decades.

 

[Domenic Fotia]

Very interesting stats Dominic and a lot of trawling around to get them.

Speaking as a tiger fan I'd be fascinated to look at those top 8 crowd draws and analyse the percentage of 60K+ and 60K- attendances each rivalry attracted when both clubs were top 8 and when neither were top 8 thus making a comparison taking ladder position into account. EG I very much suspect ( I know ) that the 27 Carlton V Essendon figure and the 18 Essendon V Richmond figure would be much closer, probably almost inseparable, if we look only at Carl/Rich finalling years or Carlton/Richmond non finalling years. Equally the tiny gap between Collingwood V Geelong and Carlton V Richmond would lenghten considerably. The Collingwood V Richmond figure relative to the others would also shoot up.

That said that is a fairly one eyed tiger look at the thing and great work on the figures bud.

Thanks. Richmond are an interesting case study.

From about mid 60's until the mid 80's Richmond were pretty much involved in all the big drawing games.

 

[gaelictiogar]

I've only got figures for Carlton V Essendon and Richmond V Essendon both from and including 1995.

Carlton V Essendon: 9 games with both clubs top 8 Average 76,114.
6 attendances 70,000 plus
3 attendances 60,000 plus

Richmond V Essendon: 8 games both top 8 Average 66,579.
4 attendances 70,000 plus
1 attendance 60,000 plus
3 attendances 60,000 minus

Carlton V Essendon: 9 Both clubs bottom 8 Average 48,068.
1 attendance 60,000 plus
8 attendances 60,000 minus

Richmond V Essendon: 9 games both bottom 8 Average 59,744.
1 attendance 70,000 plus
3 attendances 60,000 plus
5 attendances 60,000 minus.

The huge 28K drop in the Carlton V Essendon game between top 8 and bottom 8 compared to the relatively tiny drop of 7K in the Richmond V Essendon is probably explicable by a variety of one off issues but what is evident is that if we averaged out the figures for both rivalries any difference is statistically irrelevant at a mere 1.7% overall lead for Richmond V Essendon compared to an equally tiny 1.5% lead for the carlton V Essendon game if ALL H and A games since 1995 are included. The two match ups are for all practical purposes almost exactly equally attractive.

I'll look at other rivalries in time.

 

[Domenic Fotia]

Have expanded the thesis to include 60k to 70k crowds. While there are some new games included the same trend continued (ie there were still more Coll v Carl games in this category).

37 Coll v Carl
35 Coll v Ess
27 Carl v Ess
26 Coll v Rich
20 Coll v Melb

18 Ess v Rich
13 Carl v Rich
12 Coll v Geel

7 Ess v Geel, Coll v StK, Coll v Haw
6 Ess v Melb, Geel v Haw

4 Coll v Nth, Swans v Coll
3 Geel v Melb, Carl v Geel, Ess v Haw, Coll v Bull, Rich v Nth
2 Rich v Melb, Rich v Geel, Melb v Stk, Ess v Nth, Rich v Bull, Ess v Swans
1 Haw v Swans, Rich v Stk, Haw v Carl, Swans v Stk, Swans v WCE, Coll v Bris, Ess v StK, Nth v Bull, Ess v Bull, Carl v Nth, Melb v Haw, Carl v Melb

My summary of the above is every teams biggest drawing game and rivalry is with Collingwood. For Collingwood their biggest clashes would be with Carlton the old enemy (similar to Aus v Eng in cricket) and Essendon (Anzac Day games). Melbourne and Richmond are also historically big clashes dating back to the 50's and 60's.

The biggest non-Collingwood clash would be Carlton v Essendon then Richmond v Essendon and Carlton.

Outside what is "referred to as the big 4" Geelong would come next in terms of drawing a big crowd.

No doubt Hawthorn is on rise. With their membership nos you would expect every time they play Collingwood @ the MCG they should draw 60k + for now on. As already pointed out in this thread Geelong v Hawthorn is now a regular big drawing game.

I think the AFL should schedule all Carl / Ess v Geel / Haw clashes at the MCG at the moment. Given half decent weather these games are capable of drawing 60k+.

 

[gaelictiogar]

My summary of the above is every teams biggest drawing game and rivalry is with Collingwood. For Collingwood their biggest clashes would be with Carlton the old enemy (similar to Aus v Eng in cricket) and Essendon (Anzac Day games). Melbourne and Richmond are also historically big clashes dating back to the 50's and 60's.

The biggest non-Collingwood clash would be Carlton v Essendon then Richmond v Essendon and Carlton.

Outside what is "referred to as the big 4" Geelong would come next in terms of drawing a big crowd.

No doubt Hawthorn is on rise. With their membership nos you would expect every time they play Collingwood @ the MCG they should draw 60k + for now on. As already pointed out in this thread Geelong v Hawthorn is now a regular big drawing game.

I think the AFL should schedule all Carl / Ess v Geel / Haw clashes at the MCG at the moment. Given half decent weather these games are capable of drawing 60k+.

All pretty much true but for 2 mistaken assumptions.

As I have shown in post No.89 on this thread it is mistaken to suppose that Carlton V Essendon is in and of itself a bigger draw than Richmond V Essendon. It isn't. They're virtually identical once we even out form and position going into the game.

No rivalry, not Coll V Geel or any other "should expect to draw 60K+ every time they play at the G from now on". Consistently drawing 60K+ is dependent on form. Collingwood and Geelong will easily break that figure while they remain up and about but NO match up guarantees 60K if either or both teams slide. This applies even to Collingwood games V the Big 4.

Quibbles Dominic but accurate additions to your points.

 

[Hawkk]

I agree with Domenic Fotia assessment, I'd probably recognise the substantial drawing power Melbourne had in the 1950s and 1960s (who were really overtaken as the drawcard by Richmond in the late 1960s)

No doubt Hawthorn is on rise. With their membership nos you would expect every time they play Collingwood @ the MCG they should draw 60k + for now on. As already pointed out in this thread Geelong v Hawthorn is now a regular big drawing game.

I think the AFL should schedule all Carl / Ess v Geel / Haw clashes at the MCG at the moment. Given half decent weather these games are capable of drawing 60k+.

Just further to this, I firmly believe that if any club can break the Big Four cartel it is the Hawks (albeit with an aweful amount of bias). This is based on current growth as well as the success over the last 50 years (three generations of success) that transformed Hawthorn from a traditionally a smaller drawing club to mixing it with the traditionally larger drawing clubs. The benefit of playing as many games as possible at the MCG is invaluable, by playing these games at the larger venues it maxmises the amount of people that can attend games (in particular the younger generation and neutrals) that exposes the team to a far greater market. Its no surprise that Richmond and Essendon experienced huge surges in off field success when they moved from their suburban home grounds to the MCG in the 60s/70s and 90s.

Combine this with the likes of Rioli and Franklin that are extremely marketable to the younger generation of fans, it makes it a lot easier to convert a higher proportion of existing fans to members but also convert more younger fans to the club.

Geelong is an interesting case in point, they are traditionally a high drawing club but as gaelictiger pointed out they are often overlooked based on the perception that they are a small market club. The biggest problem for Geelong is also their biggest strength, they are heavily regionalised and play the majority of their home games at a venue that is far too small for their drawing power, this makes the majority of Geelong home games far less accessible for most fans. It'll be interesting to see if they play more and more home games in Melbourne to capitalise on this era of success or if they remain heavily regionalised but possibly not capitalising on this 5 year era of success.

 

[Domenic Fotia]

As requested 60k+ crowds by era;

2001-11

17 - Coll v Ess
13 - Coll v Carl
9 - Ess v Rich, Coll v Rich
8 - Carl v Ess, Coll v Melb
7 - Coll v Geel
6 - Geel v Haw, Carl v Rich
4 - Coll v Haw, Coll v Swans
2 - Coll v StK, Ess v Haw

1992 -2000 (Ess move to MCG)

16 - Coll v Carl
14 - Coll v Ess
13 - Carl v Ess
6 - Coll v Rich
5 - Ess v Geel
4 - Carl v Rich, Ess v Rich
3 - Ess v Melb, Coll v StK, Coll v NM
2 - Ess v NM, Melb v Coll, Coll v Bull, Carl v Geel, Rich v NM

1983 - 1991 (games begin to be relocated to VFL Park / MCG)

7 - Carl v Coll
4 - Coll v Melb
3 - Carl v Ess, Coll v Ess
2 - Coll v Rich

1965 - 1982 (Richmond move to MCG)

8 - Rich v Coll
4 - Rich v Ess
2 - Rich v Carl, Carl v Ess, Coll v Melb, Melb v StK

1945 - 1964 (Melbourne sole MCG tennant)

4 - Melb v Coll
3 - Melb v Ess
2 - Melb v Geel

 

[I Remember Bluey]

Congratulations Guys & Gals:

This is one of the best threads that I have read on BF, no trolling, no wandering off topic, no my willy/nipples are bigger than yours upstarts, just a very good analysis of a set of intriguing stats.

Well done to all

 

[Underarm]

could we have a >30k list by era plz aha

 

[gaelictiogar]

I have been basing my comparative figures on all years since and including 1995.

My effort to reveal how having both clubs in the bottom 8 would impact on the Collingwood V Geelong figures has foundered on the fact that since 1995 the MCG has never once hosted a pies V Cats game when both have been bottom 8 !!!!

Thus there is no modern day indication at all how the match up would respond to coincidental poor form from both sides.