AFL Player # 9: Dylan Shiel - Sticking around for 2025 18/10

[Beerfish]

Contract Status: Out of contract 2024 2025
My Boy Draft 2024: Pick 35, eth-dog

 

[eth-dog]

I hate comparing the kid who was taken. There’s no guarantee we would’ve taken him. Paul Curtis and soligo were still on the board and went a few picks later.

Who else would we compare it to?

No in the real world he cost us picks 29 in the 2020 draft and our 2021 second rounder.

You mean the pick we got for Fantasia? So in reality, Fantasia?

We traded Fantasia and Willis for Caldwell. Bargain.

 

[andleanback]

Who else would we compare it to?

You mean the pick we got for Fantasia? So in reality, Fantasia?

We traded Fantasia and Willis for Caldwell. Bargain.

No one, we lost that pick. We didn’t lose that player.

 

[eth-dog]

No one, we lost that pick. We didn’t lose that player.

Yeah, but you can't do it based on who we might have taken. Who's to say Willis wasn't on our radar? In fact, I'm pretty sure Arlo Draper and Blake Howes were the ones most likely taken.

 

[yodellinhank]

I hate comparing the kid who was taken. There’s no guarantee we would’ve taken him. Paul Curtis and soligo were still on the board and went a few picks later.

It's fallacious logic trying to paint a picture, like when people say "we got Caldwell anyway" in reference to Shiel.

Who else would we compare it to?

Why not just call it what it was, in the real world, instead of trying to frame it to suit your argument?

You mean the pick we got for Fantasia? So in reality, Fantasia?

We traded Fantasia and Willis for Caldwell. Bargain.

The degrees of separation game is silly. There was no onus on us to trade the Fantasia pick.

 

[andleanback]

Yeah, but you can't do it based on who we might have taken. Who's to say Willis wasn't on our radar? In fact, I'm pretty sure Arlo Draper and Blake Howes were the ones most likely taken.

We might’ve taken anyone who was still on the board

 

[yodellinhank]

We might’ve taken anyone who was still on the board

or even traded for something else.

 

[eth-dog]

It's fallacious logic trying to paint a picture, like when people say "we got Caldwell anyway" in reference to Shiel.
Why not just call it what it was, in the real world, instead of trying to frame it to suit your argument?

The degrees of separation game is silly. There was no onus on us to trade the Fantasia pick.

He was talking about Willis.

I am talking about the real world. Do you remember that I didn't even want Caldwell?

How does everyone except you understand that trading Fantasia was so we had the ability to get Caldwell? He was under contract and we had no obligation to trade him, but did so so he could go home and we'd have both the list spots and trade capacity to get Caldwell.

We might’ve taken anyone who was still on the board

Yep. But Willis was taken. He's the obvious player to compare to.

In all honesty I think if we kept it we probably take Howes, he was linked to us if Hobbs didn't slide.

 

[yodellinhank]

He was talking about Willis.

I am talking about the real world. Do you remember that I didn't even want Caldwell?

How does everyone except you understand that trading Fantasia was so we had the ability to get Caldwell? He was under contract and we had no obligation to trade him, but did so so he could go home and we'd have both the list spots and trade capacity to get Caldwell.

Yep. But Willis was taken. He's the obvious player to compare to.

In all honesty I think if we kept it we probably take Howes, he was linked to us if Hobbs didn't slide.

The real world is where we traded pick 29 and our 2021 second rounder for Jye Caldwell.

 

[eth-dog]

The real world is where we traded pick 29 and our 2021 second rounder for Jye Caldwell.

Not really. We traded Fantasia so we could get Caldwell. If Caldwell had nominated St Kilda instead of us Fantasia would have been on our list in 2021.

 

[andleanback]

He was talking about Willis.

I am talking about the real world. Do you remember that I didn't even want Caldwell?

How does everyone except you understand that trading Fantasia was so we had the ability to get Caldwell? He was under contract and we had no obligation to trade him, but did so so he could go home and we'd have both the list spots and trade capacity to get Caldwell.

Yep. But Willis was taken. He's the obvious player to compare to.

In all honesty I think if we kept it we probably take Howes, he was linked to us if Hobbs didn't slide.

Yeh we could’ve taken howes. We probably would’ve bid on Owens first. I’d say soligo would’ve been a fair chance aswell, along with curtis as we needed a small forward.

 

[eth-dog]

Yeh we could’ve taken howes. We probably would’ve bid on Owens first. I’d say soligo would’ve been a fair chance aswell, along with curtis as we needed a small forward.

I was hoping Curtis would slide to us. If we'd taken him and Draper instead of Lord and McDonagh...

 

[andleanback]

I was hoping Curtis would slide to us. If we'd taken him and Draper instead of Lord and McDonagh...

The worst thing about Draper is he’ll probably get delisted this year without getting a chance. At a bottom 10 club he probably gets 10-15 games to show his wares.

 

[gunit_]

Didn't have an impact against Port but after missing 4 games plus the bye and given the situation of the game when he came on, wet weather etc. I think it's harsh to be too critical of his game. I'd like to see how he responds if/when given a full game against the Crows. As has been mentioned he was in good form prior to his injury against Brisbane.

 

[yodellinhank]

Not really. We traded Fantasia so we could get Caldwell. If Caldwell had nominated St Kilda instead of us Fantasia would have been on our list in 2021.

You're denying reality.

Fantasia was taken with pick 55 in 2013, so you're right that's a massive win.

Hang on... we got that pick for Gumbleton. And he cost us pick 2! Just when you think the Shiel trade couldn't have been any more of a disaster...

 

[TheGrizz]

The worst thing about Draper is he’ll probably get delisted this year without getting a chance. At a bottom 10 club he probably gets 10-15 games to show his wares.

I would pick him up as a SSP or DFA if they do.

 

[Ambrosia]

I know it’s obvious but feel it needs to be said.

The Shiel trade was clearly a bad a deal but that doesn’t mean Shiel isn’t a good player.

 

[eth-dog]

The worst thing about Draper is he’ll probably get delisted this year without getting a chance. At a bottom 10 club he probably gets 10-15 games to show his wares.

The worst thing is they traded ahead of us to take him then put him off half back, totally opposed to his skillets.

 

[Keystone agony]

The worst thing is they traded ahead of us to take him then put him off half back, totally opposed to his skillets.

Other clubs try players in different positions due to list demographics at the time? Shock

 

[Donakebab]

Hasn't the back and forth over the trade been done to death? How about we lament over Selwood and Parker too for food measure?

Just move on to the here a now.

 

[Lore]

Draft picks are literally not worth anything at all. They have no objective value, you can't sell them, and at this current point you also can't trade them for salary cap space. All they are is an opportunity to acquire a player, who has nominated for that draft and not already been taken, who may or may not improve your overall list with time and the right attitude, depending on how good your talent ID, list management and development program are.

If you want to make a like for like comparison then you need to either turn those picks into players for a literal comparison, or you need to use some other measure like career longevity or length of service.

In the former case, it would be disingenuous to make a selection with the benefit of hindsight, so unless you have some sort of insight into who the club was going to pick, you basically just have to go on who was rated in that part of the draft and had similar traits to things our recruiters might have looked for (like speed, agility, a maximum height of 182cm, and a choir boy mentality). Whoever was taken at that selection or in the next 3-4 picks, and who was supposed to be able play in the same position is probably about right.

In the latter case, you could use something like the average number of games played by players drafted at each pick (AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number - Draftguru). Pick 8 and 9 in the draft average about 105 career games (each). If we'd made finals and won one, as we probably hoped and expected if we were trading for mature players, the future pick would've been pick 13/14. Pick 13 averages 115 games and pick 14 averages 90 (data set not yet big enough for a smooth curve). We also got pick 31 back from GWS, which is a part of the draft where about 65 games is the average career.

So altogether we need about ~140 games out of Dylan Shiel

9

Dylan Shiel

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.6

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

12.2

5star

M

3.1

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

23.4

5star

K

13.6

5star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.2

2star

T

3.4

4star

CL

6.4

5star

D

19.8

5star

K

8.4

4star

HB

11.4

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

3.8

5star

to break even. He's currently on 75, so another few seasons would be required.

 

[faible]

Draft picks are literally not worth anything at all. They have no objective value, you can't sell them, and at this current point you also can't trade them for salary cap space. All they are is an opportunity to acquire a player, who has nominated for that draft and not already been taken, who may or may not improve your overall list with time and the right attitude, depending on how good your talent ID, list management and development program are.

If you want to make a like for like comparison then you need to either turn those picks into players for a literal comparison, or you need to use some other measure like career longevity or length of service.

In the former case, it would be disingenuous to make a selection with the benefit of hindsight, so unless you have some sort of insight into who the club was going to pick, you basically just have to go on who was rated in that part of the draft and had similar traits to things our recruiters might have looked for (like speed, agility, a maximum height of 182cm, and a choir boy mentality). Whoever was taken at that selection or in the next 3-4 picks, and who was supposed to be able play in the same position is probably about right.

In the latter case, you could use something like the average number of games played by players drafted at each pick (AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number - Draftguru). Pick 8 and 9 in the draft average about 105 career games (each). If we'd made finals and won one, as we probably hoped and expected if we were trading for mature players, the future pick would've been pick 13/14. Pick 13 averages 115 games and pick 14 averages 90 (data set not yet big enough for a smooth curve). We also got pick 31 back from GWS, which is a part of the draft where about 65 games is the average career.

So altogether we need about ~140 games out of Dylan Shiel to break even. He's currently on 75, so another few seasons would be required.

I usually look at the players taken 3-5 selections after a given draft pick for a reasonable idea of what players were rated in that area.

Saying you’d have taken whoever went at pick 64 that became a star at pick 27 is just hindsight heroism and not reflective of reality.

So the players immediately drafted after Caldwell were Butters, Quaynor, Hateley, Clark and McHenry. So in all likelihood if we keep that pick we end up with Caldwell anyway.

 

[yodellinhank]

Hasn't the back and forth over the trade been done to death? How about we lament over Selwood and Parker too for food measure?

Just move on to the here a now.

Well if you followed closely, we could've had Sellwood with about a quarter of what we gave away for Shiel.

 

[ant555]

Well if you followed closely, we could've had Sellwood with about a quarter of what we gave away for Shiel.

Pick 2 is a quarter of two pick 14's ?

 

[yodellinhank]

I usually look at the players taken 3-5 selections after a given draft pick for a reasonable idea of what players were rated in that area.

Saying you’d have taken whoever went at pick 64 that became a star at pick 27 is just hindsight heroism and not reflective of reality.

So the players immediately drafted after Caldwell were Butters, Quaynor, Hateley, Clark and McHenry. So in all likelihood if we keep that pick we end up with Caldwell anyway.

I look at everyone between that and your next pick. You don't cherry pick one or two players, it just gives a picture of if there was a depth of talent available or not.

 

[ant555]

I look at the most drawn Lotto numbers. I still have not won.