I think it is a 100% tax on overspending on the soft cap. If we sack him with two years to go and pay the whole amount (assuming $700k pa) then we go over the salary cap by approx $1.4M (it might be a bit less as a Rookie coach next year would get less than him). We then have to pay another $1.4M as a tax. It would cost approx $3M all up.
Sounds like a lot, but it seems like the club usually makes an extra $1-2M profit when they're playing finals and hitting membership records etc. It might actually cost them more to keep him.
More likely outcome is a mutual parting of the ways. When's Noble contracted until? A part of me suspects Simmo may end up back at Norf in his latter coaching years. But then I think he was genuinely shocked at the size of West Coast, plus now our new facilities, and it probably feels like a real backwards move to steer the can rattlers.