Preview AFL 1st Preliminary Final - Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 7:50PM Friday 20 September

[smackdog]

We need to tackle like we've never tackled before and run faster for longer than we have ever run before. Run them off their ******* feet.

GO CATS!!!!!!

With the week off, I'm sorry to say, but I think this is dreaming. We can't run them off their feet - they beat us with pace and endurance, we beat them with muscle. We need to be so defensively minded tonight, run both ways and hit them really really really hard (below the shoulder ).

 

[Partridge]

If Hodge caught him, he would snap him in half.

Only if he imagined he was a KFC chicken wing.

 

[Hawk Vision]

Sorry to intrude...may the best team win.

If anyone wants Cat 2 or Cat 3 tickets at $40 off the listed price, my mate has a heap of them in Melbourne. He is trying to sell them as a buck show went south and now he is trying to reduce his losses. They are M54 & Q50 and he has plenty and they are cardboard tickets not paper; PM me if you would like his number.

About $115 for Cat 2 & $100 for Cat 3

Cheers

 

[Partridge]

Prelims always, always open up.
We actually might see the best of him tomorrow.

He was a bull early against Freo.
I expect the same tomorrow and then he can run when it does open up.

He also missed a sitter..

 

[Partridge]

Bit of a turn around i'm sure you wanted Murda out of the team earlier in the year because he wasn't getting the ball???

Glad to read the above.

Correct, I didn't. He's still got flaws (as they all do). His are he doesn't get enough of the ball, and when that happens he's not involved in the game at all. Caddy's are that he can get the ball, but doesn't look when he disposes of it. And personally I think he's trying to prove himself by bursting through packs far too frequently.

If everyone was fit I'm not sure I'd have either - which I didn't at the start of the year. In Murdoch's favour he's in good VFL form, and has gotten better at defensive pressure. Which we'll absolutely need tonight.

So yeah, either way. Both could be vital assets. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[catempire]

Can someone please confirm about betting on a draw tonight? it is paying $41 but yeah will the betting agencies payout on it even though a result will be determined in extra time?

The betting agency specifies that it's before extra time, so yes. They don't offer a market for a drawn match because it can't happen.

 

[smackdog]

Correct, I didn't. He's still got flaws (as they all do). His are he doesn't get enough of the ball, and when that happens he's not involved in the game at all. Caddy's are that he can get the ball, but doesn't look when he disposes of it. And personally I think he's trying to prove himself by bursting through packs far too frequently.

If everyone was fit I'm not sure I'd have either - which I didn't at the start of the year. In Murdoch's favour he's in good VFL form, and has gotten better at defensive pressure. Which we'll absolutely need tonight.

So yeah, either way. Both could be vital assets. We'll have to wait and see.

But I don't want to wait and see. I want the game to start now, or failing that I want work to heck right off, sink beers and watch the 2007, 2009 and 2011 grand final back to back.

 

[benneth]

they even go as far as suggesting it won't be close.

Fools

 

[ElCat]

Tim Lane has tipped the Cats in today's Age

(Ling was the only other expert to tip the Cats.)

 

[catempire]

A history of odds...

 

[bulletproof]

Our chances partly rest with the class of 2008-9, Duncan, Christensen, Motlop and Vardy (sad that Menzel can't join them). If these 3-4 year players step up and play the game of their lives, we can win.

I have a huge amount confidence in Motlop tonight, I think he will get more room then he has in recent weeks. He just has to be more ruthless with his disposal. It is lazy to compare them but that is where Rioli has it over Motlop, he is just incredibly efficient with his ball use.

I would go Caddy as the sub.

He is a player with a strong mind and I think he is more likely to come on and get himself involved in the game. Murdoch needs to be out there and getting himself involved, I can't see him coming to this game cold and having an impact.

 

[bulletproof]

A little bit Gav.

"It's not the despair, I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."

After being relatively becalmed all week, I woke with a terrible nausea thinking we have a chance.

 

[year of the cat]

With the week off, I'm sorry to say, but I think this is dreaming. We can't run them off their feet - they beat us with pace and endurance, we beat them with muscle. We need to be so defensively minded tonight, run both ways and hit them really really really hard (below the shoulder ).

We've had a full week off, not 5 days. We have 22 players as they do. The Port game was hardly a brutal affair either. No excuses.

 

[Partridge]

i think the hawks will get up, but i will be cheering and swearing at the TV with the best of them hoping we get up and i have another unsettled week next week. if not, monday night is essentially the end of the season for us, and hopefully selwood can snag himself a brownie.

If we lose, tonight is the end of the season for me. Could not give a flying fcuk what happens after that.

 

[Partridge]

I dunno about all this "oh well no chappy and boris so we are no chance!", Hawkins was just as bad in round 15 as he is now and we had no Chappy or SJ in round 15 (and no SJ round 1) yet still won....
The only real difference is we don't have a ruckman but we got SMASHED there earlier in the year anyway.

Not quite. We lost the hitouts in Round 1 but also did in Round 15 (even with Simpson). Strangely enough, we lost the centre clearances worse with Simpson than without him (-9 with West / Blicavs, -11 with Simpson / Blicavs). One big change was in Round 15 we drew the overall clearances. So hard to assess what impact it will have. Underlines the midfield need to do their part just as much.

 

[Partridge]

Out of interest. Can someone confirm that in rnd 15 Hunt only went to Mitchell at 1/2 time after he had 23 disposals?

It's what I just heard.

My recollection is he started on him, but I'm sure watching the replay there were times when Hunt was running around with other players. He definitely wasn't on him the entire night without a break.

Problem is we don't have a single tagger right now. The only candidate would be Guthrie, but they'll need him on Rioli.

 

[vinum coupe]

He also missed a sitter..

They all did

 

[Partridge]

Are the press just trying to find any angle they can or are Geelong playing some mind games in the media? I don't like if it's the latter. That never bodes well for teams and usually means they are deflecting from more serious issues. Somebody put me at ease! haha

Apart from Scarlett on SEN saying Geelong will win, nothing from the club or players. I kinda wish Scarlett had said nothing, but he's not going to change now.

 

[Partridge]

That is so far from the truth it's very insulting coming from a fellow Geelong supporter.

Watch him closely tomorrow night, Kelly will be the difference, not Selwood, Bartel, Taylor, Hawkins or Johnson.

Insulting? Insulting to point out a home truth?

Kelly was tremendous last week, but he was very poor for quite a few weeks before then. His tackling is sensational but his leg speed has dropped alarmingly and he's not getting the ball as easily as he used to. They aren't insults; they're pretty clear observations.

Biggest problem I see from fellow Geelong supporters is a reluctance to face reality about favourite sons. Especially those nearing or over 30.

 

[cats_09]

Not quite. We lost the hitouts in Round 1 but also did in Round 15 (even with Simpson). Strangely enough, we lost the centre clearances worse with Simpson than without him (-9 with West / Blicavs, -11 with Simpson / Blicavs). One big change was in Round 15 we drew the overall clearances. So hard to assess what impact it will have. Underlines the midfield need to do their part just as much.

Need to remember that in rnd 1 West/Blicavs played out the match, but in rnd 15 we subbed of Simpson at 3/4 time after the Hawks subbed out Bailey - so not sure the impact that going it alone with Blicavs in the last made to hitout & clearance stats

 

[vinum coupe]

To be fair, outside ball use either makes those older guys look slow or quick.
Just think back to the 2010 prelim.
I'd hate to read that thread again as I think I wanted about 6 champs traded.

If the ball gets outside tonight and is used to cause damage then all those older guys getting the hard ball will look better.

 

[djboonie]

OK, I'm officially anxious.

I've done my scoring predictions and I have your blokes coming out with 1 extra s/s..

Geelong 29
Hawks 28

Now looking at your scoring shots against over the last half of the season it would appear that you've manage to shut almost all sides down, so not only are you scoring well, but restricting the opposition. Some of the data is skewed by your home ground advantage recently, but nonetheless your ability to generate inside 50's and scoring shots has been almost peerless in the second half of the year.

Personally I'm questioning the hawks ability to get 28 shots against you...

Kick accurately and I think the game is yours

 

[Whit3y]

when a geelong player comes out and says we are going to expose them with pace, i get worried. it generally means the other team is a better side and speed is all we got.

 

[fpm84]

Apart from Scarlett on SEN saying Geelong will win, nothing from the club or players. I kinda wish Scarlett had said nothing, but he's not going to change now.

As usual, Scarlett's comments were completely overblown by the media.

Here's how the Herald-Sun led with the story:

FORMER Geelong defender Matthew Scarlett says Hawthorn is mentally fragile and will wilt under the pressure of overwhelming favouritism against the Cats tomorrow night.

And here's what he actually said:

"There's going to be a huge amount of pressure and I think Geelong will be able to handle that pressure a bit better than Hawthorn and they've proved over the past few years that they enjoy playing the Hawks and they'll definitely be up for it," Scarlett said on SEN.

"No doubt Hawthorn are playing better football and are in better form than Geelong but I don't think it really counts for much on Friday night."

There's nothing arrogant or out of line with those comments. I actually heard the interview on SEN as I was driving to work yesterday and I actually thought Scarlett was very respectful of Hawthorn - he certainly never declared he thought we were certainties.

 

[fpm84]

OK, I'm officially anxious.

I've done my scoring predictions and I have your blokes coming out with 1 extra s/s..

Geelong 29
Hawks 28

Care to share how you reached your predictions?