Preview AFL 1st Preliminary Final - Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 7:50PM Friday 20 September

[The Quandrinator]

I think the weather forecast really evens this game up now. If the forecast stays as predicted that is

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=richmond weather forecast&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-USfficial&client=firefox-a&channel=np&source=hp&gws_rd=cr&ei=qpw6UojSF4jOiAeknoGQDA

70% precipitation will make the ground heavier than usual and disposal use will be more effective going by hand if the rain does come down 1 hour before the game or throughout

That was Richmond New South Wales. Wonder how Richmond Tasmania will be?

 

[The Quandrinator]

I think the weather forecast really evens this game up now. If the forecast stays as predicted that is

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=richmond weather forecast&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-USfficial&client=firefox-a&channel=np&source=hp&gws_rd=cr&ei=qpw6UojSF4jOiAeknoGQDA

70% precipitation will make the ground heavier than usual and disposal use will be more effective going by hand if the rain does come down 1 hour before the game or throughout

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml

 

[fpm84]

Also, I think anybody tipping Hawthorn because "they're in better form" is deluded. Tip them because they've had the week off, tip them because you think they're the best team, tip them because we're missing Enright and Chapman - fine - but form is so fickle.

We went from coughing up a 9 goal lead against Brisbane to absolutely smashing Fremantle in the space of a week.

We went from demolishing Sydney to an incredibly poor performance against Brisbane in the space of a week.

The contrast between our first half and second half last week was so stark, it was as if we got 22 new players at half time.

Form can be turned around very quickly and I will be staggered if we're not 'on' from the opening bounce tonight. That doesn't necessarily mean we will win, but this sport constantly proves it is futile to say "team x played well last week, so they should win this week." It's just not that simple.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

After reviewing the 2 teams the thing that stands out is the imbalance in terms of young players
We have an absolute truckload - Bundy , Vardy , Ballroom , Motlop, Caddy , Guthrie and Murdoch
Hawks have Smith and Hill , that's a huge disparity.
To have 7 youngsters and to be a realistic shot is a huge complement to our culture and future direction.
Que sera sera for 2013 but watch out in 2015 , we ain't slowing down and we ain't going to the bottom of the ladder any time soon.

 

[Cosmic Energy]

To be fair, outside ball use either makes those older guys look slow or quick.
Just think back to the 2010 prelim.
I'd hate to read that thread again as I think I wanted about 6 champs traded.

If the ball gets outside tonight and is used to cause damage then all those older guys getting the hard ball will look better.

Yeah it's quick ball movement v actual pace argument. Let's face it there's not actually that many individuals in the AFL who can actually run and bounce the ball going away from the opposition and then use it effectively. So it's more about moving it on, giving it to guys going the right way and moving quickly. The 2010 prelim was sideways, sideways, backwards. I remember something like Ablett giving a sideways handball to Varcoe's feet who was travelling the wrong way at the first bounce set the scene. Compare that to our start in the 2011 GF

I don't actually think Kelly's ever been that quick, just a smooth mover with poise at his best when he did get on the outside. Geez we gave some shocking handballs in the first half last Sat night, I put most of the blame on the guy calling for the ball. Just knowing when you're not in a good position to receive - left footers and right footers getting it on the wrong side for example, or having no momentum the right way.

 

[Partridge]

There's nothing arrogant or out of line with those comments. I actually heard the interview on SEN as I was driving to work yesterday and I actually thought Scarlett was very respectful of Hawthorn - he certainly never declared he thought we were certainties.

Don't worry, I knew the media had overblown it severely. Typically disgraceful substitute for "journalism". Whatever sells hey.

 

[sauron256]

OK, I'm officially anxious.

I've done my scoring predictions and I have your blokes coming out with 1 extra s/s..

Geelong 29
Hawks 28

Now looking at your scoring shots against over the last half of the season it would appear that you've manage to shut almost all sides down, so not only are you scoring well, but restricting the opposition. Some of the data is skewed by your home ground advantage recently, but nonetheless your ability to generate inside 50's and scoring shots has been almost peerless in the second half of the year.

Personally I'm questioning the hawks ability to get 28 shots against you...

Kick accurately and I think the game is yours

Imagine how awesome the game would have been if the final scoreline ended up

Geelong 13.16.94
Hawthorn 13.15.93

 

[BraveGFC2013]

Completely concur with regard to Rivers. Should be dropped for Enright IF we happen to win this week. He just looks too immobile for a 3rd tall for me. He would want to play a blinder tomorrow night.

I disagree with the assessments of Rivers.
While he doesn't get a huge amount of the ball, when he has it I am at ease he will use it effectively. He does his allocated job and is a good decison maker when he has it.
I especially liked his bravery to sneak inside the 50 deep into the last quarter against Freo to try and sneak a goal but unfortunately Pav saved the day with a spoil.
Dont expect a best of ground performance but he will do the job asked of him.

 

[fpm84]

Imagine how awesome the game would have been if the final scoreline ended up

Geelong 13.16.94
Hawthorn 13.15.93

Not awesome for Melbourne's paramedics who would be on standby for 80,000+ suspected heart attacks.

 

[smackdog]

Yeah it's quick ball movement v actual pace argument. Let's face it there's not actually that many individuals in the AFL who can actually run and bounce the ball going away from the opposition and then use it effectively. So it's more about moving it on, giving it to guys going the right way and moving quickly. The 2010 prelim was sideways, sideways, backwards. I remember something like Ablett giving a sideways handball to Varcoe's feet who was travelling the wrong way at the first bounce set the scene. Compare that to our start in the 2011 GF

I don't actually think Kelly's ever been that quick, just a smooth mover with poise at his best when he did get on the outside. Geez we gave some shocking handballs in the first half last Sat night, I put most of the blame on the guy calling for the ball. Just knowing when you're not in a good position to receive - left footers and right footers getting it on the wrong side for example, or having no momentum the right way.

But it isn't pace with the ball that's the issue, it's (1) defensive run and (2) running to space and advantage (i.e. leading) when you're in attack without the ball. What is of paramount importance defensively is that second, third, fourth effort to tackle and put under pressure, that sprint of 50m to get on the potential link up man when too often it is the case that the Cats are behind them by 5-10m instead of 2m by the time they get the ball. And those speedy leads into space to turn the Hawks around and explosive leads from Hawkins and Pods.

Unfortunately, Hawthorn have the potential for this in spades, Geelong have been relying on too few players to put this kind of effort in. All of them need to lift - that's from Caddy and Vardy, right up to Bartel and SJ.

 

[fpm84]

I disagree with the assessments of Rivers.
While he doesn't get a huge amount of the ball, when he has it I am at ease he will use it effectively. He does his allocated job and is a good decison maker when he has it.
I especially liked his bravery to sneak inside the 50 deep into the last quarter against Freo to try and sneak a goal but unfortunately Pav saved the day with a spoil.
Dont expect a best of ground performance but he will do the job asked of him.

I agree - I heard him described as our 'weak link' on the radio yesterday which I completely disagree with. I think he's been solid in both finals. He'll never do anything spectacular but he's reliable and has solid skills.

As others have mentioned, he had a good record on Roughead when he played for Melbourne (albeit Roughy is in career best form at the moment) which gives us the flexibility of switching him to Roughy for half a quarter and playing Taylor up forward if either Hawkins or Pods is struggling.

 

[Pollywaffle]

Imagine how awesome the game would have been if the final scoreline ended up

Geelong 13.16.94
Hawthorn 13.15.93

And Brian Lake punches the ball through for the last point

 

[fpm84]

And Brian Lake punches the ball through for the last point

Nah, it'd have to be a free to Selwood for high contact right on the siren, and he kicks a point for us to win.

BigFooty's servers would crash for a month

 

[The Quandrinator]

Also, I think anybody tipping Hawthorn because "they're in better form" is deluded. Tip them because they've had the week off, tip them because you think they're the best team, tip them because we're missing Enright and Chapman - fine - but form is so fickle.

We went from coughing up a 9 goal lead against Brisbane to absolutely smashing Fremantle in the space of a week.

We went from demolishing Sydney to an incredibly poor performance against Brisbane in the space of a week.

The contrast between our first half and second half last week was so stark, it was as if we got 22 new players at half time.

Form can be turned around very quickly and I will be staggered if we're not 'on' from the opening bounce tonight. That doesn't necessarily mean we will win, but this sport constantly proves it is futile to say "team x played well last week, so they should win this week." It's just not that simple.

When developing my tipping program and optimising its results over seven years data, one thing became obvious: the results became optimal when you gave "form" a negative weighting! That is teams playing better than their standard tend to return to their norm. Statistically that is true with a 99 per cent + confidence margin

 

[dazbroncos]

I agree - I heard him described as our 'weak link' on the radio yesterday which I completely disagree with. I think he's been solid in both finals. He'll never do anything spectacular but he's reliable and has solid skills.

As others have mentioned, he had a good record on Roughead when he played for Melbourne (albeit Roughy is in career best form at the moment) which gives us the flexibility of switching him to Roughy for half a quarter and playing Taylor up forward if either Hawkins or Pods is struggling.

I dont care if Rivers doesnt get a touch tonight. As long as he has 35 effective spoils to Geelong advantage I'll be happy. A well timed punch to spoil is as good as a touch. With Guthrie, Hunt, Mots, Bundy, Kel, Smithy at the fall of the ball, id take that.

Go Catters

 

[cats_09]

And Brian Lake punches the ball through for the last point

Or what about - Buddy marks on the 50m just before the siren sounds. He goes back and as he runs in to kick for goal the umpire calls play-on as he runs off his line

 

[Juzzycat]

If this game is close at 3 qtr time, I'm not going to be able to watch it. Will probably go for a 40 minute shower or walk out onto my balcony with a cigarette and sit on a beer until the game is over. I don't care If I miss the last qtr, if it means we will win. I can watch the replay later if need be. Just really hope the boys start well tonight and convert more shots than we have in the past few weeks. Im getting nervous. Good luck to our great team tonight !!!!

 

[CF]

tonight's the night, it's gonna be alright, you know I luv ya and nobodies gonna stop us now.

 

[djboonie]

Care to share how you reached your predictions?

I run a calculation of for and against vs what an opposition team normally concedes, track that throught the season for each game, then turn that into a percentage. Following that I use that percentage to calculate what the upcoming opponent allows (5 game avg, season avg, ground avg, interstate avg, top8 avg) and calculate on that.

Cats run at about 123+% at the MCG vs Top 8 sides, Hawks allow about 24 s/s vs top 8 sides = about 29s/s

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Don't care what happens or how we win, I just want us to win!

+ of course having said I don't care what happens, that means I do care! No slow start, no catch up footy, no missing easy set shot goals!!! FFS PLEASE!!! Just want our Boyz to be switched on!

I'm literally on my last nerve! Butterflies in tummy doing tsunami!!! I'm nauseous!

+ I'm in Melbourne and going to the game!!! Sitting in AFL Members Section M Row R, what ever that means!

But I'm so excited and nauseous I'm about to burst!!!

 

[djboonie]

Also, I think anybody tipping Hawthorn because "they're in better form" is deluded. Tip them because they've had the week off, tip them because you think they're the best team, tip them because we're missing Enright and Chapman - fine - but form is so fickle.

We went from coughing up a 9 goal lead against Brisbane to absolutely smashing Fremantle in the space of a week.

We went from demolishing Sydney to an incredibly poor performance against Brisbane in the space of a week.

The contrast between our first half and second half last week was so stark, it was as if we got 22 new players at half time.

Form can be turned around very quickly and I will be staggered if we're not 'on' from the opening bounce tonight. That doesn't necessarily mean we will win, but this sport constantly proves it is futile to say "team x played well last week, so they should win this week." It's just not that simple.

Yep, Look beyond the scoreboard. Look at inside 50's, scoring shots, conversion of i50 to S/s, look at the differential in all of those statistics. Geelong are the form side of the competition over the last 5-6 weeks, it's just not showing up in the margins...

 

[fpm84]

I run a calculation of for and against vs what an opposition team normally concedes, track that throught the season for each game, then turn that into a percentage. Following that I use that percentage to calculate what the upcoming opponent allows (5 game avg, season avg, ground avg, interstate avg, top8 avg) and calculate on that.

Cats run at about 123+% at the MCG vs Top 8 sides, Hawks allow about 24 s/s vs top 8 sides = about 29s/s

Interesting, thanks for sharing.

Have you done this for other recent Cats v Hawks games? Did your stats point to Geelong victories in other games?

 

[MinerBoy]

Well I don't think I can make any further friendly contributions to this thread. Time to get the game face on and that means you're all a bunch of red neck hill billys and your team is gonna get crushed so bad that you'll wish Aussie Rules was never invented.

Seriously though, thanks for the thread. One of the more welcoming and well discussed threads of any teams board. Hoping we break the streak and smash you in the process but to be perfectly honest I'm as toey as a Roman sandal and can't say with any confidence that I expect to win. Two great clubs, two top teams - 1 winner.

 

[djboonie]

Interesting, thanks for sharing.

Have you done this for other recent Cats v Hawks games? Did your stats point to Geelong victories in other games?

I think one of the only games that I had hawks winning was round 19 last season...

Usually I do it for every game, every week, but this year I was starved of time

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Insulting? Insulting to point out a home truth?

Kelly was tremendous last week, but he was very poor for quite a few weeks before then. His tackling is sensational but his leg speed has dropped alarmingly and he's not getting the ball as easily as he used to. They aren't insults; they're pretty clear observations.

Biggest problem I see from fellow Geelong supporters is a reluctance to face reality about favourite sons. Especially those nearing or over 30.

He was also very good in the round 15 win against Hawthorn- especially the 1st qtr - he set the trend of that game

Its just so hard to get a handle on tonights game - listening to some of the experts youd think Geelong are going to get smashed by 15 goals

Last weeks 3rd qtr blitz against Port - how do you value that - Hamish Hartlett ( their best midfielder) was off the ground injured in the 1st 15 minutes of that 3rd qtr - does that devalue Geelongs performance somewhat- or were Pt Adelaide good opposition ( as in anywhere remotely near Hawthorn)- well their performance against Collingwood suggests they were - but in other games Port have been swept aside

And the week off - normally one of 2 things happen- the team whos had it come out fresh and full of run and totally blitz the opposition - or the opposite -they come out scratchy- nervous etc

What gives me a bit of confidence is 2011- Collingwood the number one finishing team lost only 3 games - all to Geelong - they couldnt beat Geelong that year - yet had everyone else covered
Hawthorn in 2013 is basically the same - lets hope after tonight Hawthorn are zero -3 against the Cats