Preview AFL 1st Preliminary Final - Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 7:50PM Friday 20 September

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The Cats are under the pump - everyone in the know tipping Hawthorn - and some by plenty- blowing in the betting markets like the north wind - out to $3

I think 2 players owe Geelong - really stellar games Friday night

Rivers ( even allowing for the injuries) has basically done nothing - gets very few possessions 4 last week - unlike Mackie who gets plenty . Has played one good game - against WCE in Perth - every week you read posters say - hes so important to the structure - what because he is tall . What id like to see -is him actually contributing - alah get 16-18 possessions - the other backman have no trouble doing that.

Varcoe - could be about to play a blinder - well how about actually doing it - with Geelong with their backs to the wall - the signs were ominous last week - if he just doesnt waste his possessions

Completely concur with regard to Rivers. Should be dropped for Enright IF we happen to win this week. He just looks too immobile for a 3rd tall for me. He would want to play a blinder tomorrow night.
 

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Not sure who will be displaced but just have a sneaky feeling West will end up in the 22.

Westy back into the emergencies this week (after missing out altogether last week) does leave me with that feeling, too.

Given Kersten is amongst the numbers this week as well, you would have thought it has to be Vards or Blitz who might be coming out of the team.

Given how far we've come with the two youngsters, I'd probably prefer to stick with them at this stage, though.
 
Yeah I agree, but we have been fumble city for a while now, so it's hurting us.

Hopefully we are back in form after the second half against Port
Heard a few people mention during the week that we should thank Port for playing us back into form-bloody hope it's the case
 
Yeah
Me too feel good about this one
Don't know why.Maybe injuries are not as that bad.just bad.
We will go out and play our GF
Also we are due to "click" and maybe this is the one to send shivers down the spine of the other teams
 
Westy back into the emergencies this week (after missing out altogether last week) does leave me with that feeling, too.

Given Kersten is amongst the numbers this week as well, you would have thought it has to be Vards or Blitz who might be coming out of the team.

Given how far we've come with the two youngsters, I'd probably prefer to stick with them at this stage, though.

West was an emergency last week along with Murdoch & Stringer - it was Week 1 of the finals against Freo where he missed out all together.

I wonder if Kersten's selection as an emergency is done with some thinking towards the future & not just this weekend because it would be doubtful to debut a player in a prelim one would thing. I remember reading that Milburn advised Scott in 2011 that if he wasn't going to be part of the 22 for the granny to not name him as an emergency, instead give the spot to a kid as preparation for future years so they wouldn't be as overwhelmed by the experience when their time arrives - we know Guthrie was selected as an emergency that year and going by Milburn it would seem as the kid selected in his place but I wonder if they choose him with the thinking of "we know you haven't played since round 2, but we see you as part of our future", and the same here for Kersten, "we know you haven't debuted yet, but we see you part of our future & we haven't forgotten about you" - so some confidence for the guy that he is wanted by the club.
 
If we can keep this game tight until the last quarter, I think we're a really good chance here. Close games aren't something Hawthorn have had to deal with much this year - Geelong have dealt with it many times, and mostly come out on top. Not to mention the mental demons that will be sitting in the mind of every Hawks player if scores are level with 5 minutes to go.
Having said that, if we let the Hawks out to a 5-6 goal early lead, we're done.
 
All the Churches in town have built extra big collection boxes for the
BF Cats fanatics that promised their attendance (forever) on a win.
Looks like we've got divine intercession with us.

Gutted I can't be there, sick people to attend.
Can you all blast that stadium apart with noise?!!
Lift our boys and bring it home. GO catters.
 

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West was an emergency last week along with Murdoch & Stringer - it was Week 1 of the finals against Freo where he missed out all together.

I wonder if Kersten's selection as an emergency is done with some thinking towards the future & not just this weekend because it would be doubtful to debut a player in a prelim one would thing. I remember reading that Milburn advised Scott in 2011 that if he wasn't going to be part of the 22 for the granny to not name him as an emergency, instead give the spot to a kid as preparation for future years so they wouldn't be as overwhelmed by the experience when their time arrives - we know Guthrie was selected as an emergency that year and going by Milburn it would seem as the kid selected in his place but I wonder if they choose him with the thinking of "we know you haven't played since round 2, but we see you as part of our future", and the same here for Kersten, "we know you haven't debuted yet, but we see you part of our future & we haven't forgotten about you" - so some confidence for the guy that he is wanted by the club.

Agreed. Given he signed a 1 yr extension (presuming he does not play) the club are saying we want you and you are really close and you will do very well here.

As for the game our bottom six must beat their bottom six. If we cant get good defensive pressure for ours and a few goals we will be very much in the hunt. Take full advantage of opportunities and be clean by hand and foot.

Stir that all together will give us 12.

GO Catters
 
Been feeling grim about result all week but in last 24 hours have, for whatever reason, some renewed hope.

I think we can win.

Anyone else feel this way?

The more confident Hawthorn feel, the more confident I feel!

Look at it this way. Our best footy is unbeatable. Our best defence keeps Buddy and Rough quiet, our best midfield stops the ball going to them and draws them up the field looking for it. Our best attack can pour on ten goals in any quarter against any defence because you can't simultaneously tag our 12 quality mid-field/forwards and we've got two pretty big targets too.

Our ruckman Vardy did over a genuine ruckman (Lobbe) for the first time last week. Pretty much squared the hit outs but murdered him in second efforts and hits to advantage. Our ruck is definitely our weakness but it's also not great fro the Hawks either. If Vardy can do that again we'll be a long way there.

There are lots of reasons Hawthorn might win - us not matching Buddy, Rough, Rioli etc. But there are just as many reasons we might win - they haven't had to play against Stevie J much and that means where are their tags for Selwood (Lewis), Bartel (Mitchell perhaps) Stevie J (a Shiels type perhaps), Kelly, Bundy, Stokes, Mots, Corey ... etc. You see if they want to keep Hodge free to roam, they run out of tags fairly quickly. I think that's the core of why we match up well against them

All we have to do is switch straight on. If we don't they'll kill us but otherwise, we'll be OK
 
we are very much underdogs aren't we?

Everyone has gone for Hawthorn, they even go as far as suggesting it won't be close.

In fairness, this is a logical conclusion when you assess the game pragmatically.

We don't have our best 22 out there, and we're struggling with form and fatigue whilst the Hawks are rested, in good form and have their best possible side.

The boys will do us proud, and give it their all, but it's going to be a win for the ages if we get up.
 
I'm confident. In fact, I'm more than just confident. I honestly believe we'll win quite comfortably. And when I say comfortably, I don't mean to say that we'll win by 10 goals. I think that we'll get the jump and never really be headed. 4 goal win is my prediction.

It's obviously a daunting task for most clubs taking on Hawthorn, especially with their current form, fresh legs and lack of injuries. But we aren't most clubs! We are Geelong, the greatest team of all! Looking at the teams, even with Boris and Chappy out, we still match up very well. The speed from our indigenous players (and now Murder), their ability to spread from stoppages will be a huge concern for the Hawks.

So long as we stick to our structures, the personnel loss that we have to endure should be somewhat abated. Put the Hawks ball-carriers under IMMENSE PRESSURE and they will turn the ball over. They will panic and try to kick long, only for players like HT to sweep in and gather off half back.

We are due for a game where we kick more goals than behinds. Reverse the last 3 games' goals and points tally and we'd have won all 3 encounters comfortably. So providing we don't butcher the ball, stick to our structures, kick a bit more accurately and have a smidgen of luck to boot - we should win comfortably.

I'm pumped! BRING IT ON!
 
That is so far from the truth it's very insulting coming from a fellow Geelong supporter.

Watch him closely tomorrow night, Kelly will be the difference, not Selwood, Bartel, Taylor, Hawkins or Johnson.
It's the truth. Maybe you need to start watching him rather than ball watching.
 
And rippa.
Assuming you cant get your eyes off the ball I'll give you an example.

It's a throw in, a Hawks player gets it.
Have a look at the stats. Who is the most likely player to be applying the tackle?
Kelly.
Who is the Hawks player that will be spreading at the same time? Mitchell.

So you want Kelly to stop tackling?
 
I think that there are lots of reasons Geelong can win this, and if
for no other reason imagine Chappy & Boris getting the guys up.

These two warriors deserve to play next week absolute club legends
and the heart of the Cats.

About time we returned to being the most feared team.

I have faith in the boys getting this one.

As for the Hawks well they have been a very good side but they are
not Geelong.

Cats by 28pts
 
Can someone please confirm about betting on a draw tonight? it is paying $41 but yeah will the betting agencies payout on it even though a result will be determined in extra time?
 
I'm more optimistic today than I was earlier this week for a few reasons:
1. Yes, Enright and Chapman are out but people quickly forget that this is a team game, and great teams like Sydney, Geelong and Port Adelaide, often beat great teams of individuals like Collingwood and Hawthorn.
2. I think (and I'm praying) the week off will hurt the Hawks precision skills which is how they often beat teams. It didn't happen for Fremantle like I was hoping when they rested their whole team in Round 23, but fingers-crossed the Hawks suffer early in front of goal and with their midfield movement. I think Sydney have a chance in this regard on Saturday night because some players there will be playing 3 games in 5 weeks.
3. I'm hoping the match is greasy, tightly-contested and physical until at least 3 quarter time. Our only hope is that our defenders are on fire tonight and we keep Hawks to under 75-80 points. I believe that our defenders can do this. The likes of Cyril (i.e. the most overrated player in the AFL), Breust and Gunston all go missing when the going gets tough and physical so I don't expect big games from them. I'm worried that T Hunt has been dropped for Caddy though.

The things we need to get right are:
1. Spread and open up the forward line. Hawkins needs to be leading hard and the likes of Bundy (one of our smartest in this regard), Stokes, Motlop, Duncan, need to be kicking to open space and not bombing it long. Caddy and Vardy are our biggest offenders in this regard. It's amazing when the opposition put 16 defenders in our forward 50m, how quickly we succumb to the bomb it long. With Hawkins at 50% and Podsy out of touch, neither are going to be tacking pack marks. Get them into the game early with leading and presenting.
2. Don't allow Hawthorn to clear out their forward line. Franklin too often turns Lonergan and Taylor around, and whilst he sometimes makes a meal of it, this could hurt us big time tonight especially given they will have pace and freshness from the week off.
3. Get the Hodge match up right. I'm thinking Bartel or even SJ. Would love to see Jimmy leading from the goal line with Hodge chasing his tail. If Murdoch plays on him I'm afraid Hodge will move up the ground too easily. I rate Murdoch and I'm glad he's in but he needs to be playing on a flog like Stratton.

Sorry for the lengthy paragraphs. Rant over.
 
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