AFL 2014 Ladder Predictions

[KillaKanga]

Bit late bro, unless this is your version of being a smart ass.

Actually wasn't. Seriously curious how that game decides 8th.

I must have read it wrong. I know it was written before the Doggies game but was genuinely curious how either North or Melbourne would finish 8th

 

[Lefthanded]

Actually wasn't. Seriously curious how that game decides 8th.

I must have read it wrong. I know it was written before the Doggies game but was genuinely curious how either North or Melbourne would finish 8th

His previous post points out that North are not a lock for finals. It is a stretch but for them to miss they have to lose their last two and have significant percentage drop. Ess need to beat GC & Carlton, Crows also beat Saints, Tigers beat Saints & Swans. Roos than miss the eight, hence needing to beat Dees to decide the 8.

 

[tazaa]

lol^

 

[JHF1870]

His previous post points out that North are not a lock for finals. It is a stretch but for them to miss they have to lose their last two and have significant percentage drop. Ess need to beat GC & Carlton, Crows also beat Saints, Tigers beat Saints & Swans. Roos than miss the eight, hence needing to beat Dees to decide the 8.

precisely. But that's all done now.

I think the Crows on percentage over the Eagles, Don't think the Melbourne game will be easy after last weeks horrid performance. Expect them to be on fire.

But if Richmond beat Sydney, they will prob make it. Huge final round coming up....maybe.

 

[JHF1870]

Who would have a clue, seriously. Crows are just as likely to beat North next week. Plenty of 50-50 games. My mob are a rabble and don't deserve the finals but since when has that mattered.

Yeah, good luck tipping this game.

Kangaroos are so unreliable. Its one of those games.

 

[Lefthanded]

precisely. But that's all done now.

I think the Crows on percentage over the Eagles, Don't think the Melbourne game will be easy after last weeks horrid performance. Expect them to be on fire.

But if Richmond beat Sydney, they will prob make it. Huge final round coming up....maybe.

Crows on % over Eagles is an interesting call as very similar % at present with Crows a game clear. Thus for % to matter between them Crows go 1-1, Eagles 2-0. Would suggest Eagles % would trend up, Crows down, giving Eagles the edge in that regard. Both have a game they should % boost in, Crows v Saints, Eagles v Dees in Perth. Crows edge would be they have their % boost game in last round and start slightly later than Eagles in last round so might know what they have to do to make finals and have the pedal fully to the floor, so to speak.

Not sure the relevance of Dees vs Roos not being easy after Dees horrid performance against GWS. Dees have to front Eagles in between and would be trying to atone there. Personally I think they should get thrashed again by an Eagles outfit clutching to last chance at finals and have two bad games to atone for against North. North if lose to Crows though will have their own atoning to do and with a lot more class than the Dees I can't see them losing the game if it's the difference in them making the 8.

 

[JHF1870]

Crows on % over Eagles is an interesting call as very similar % at present with Crows a game clear. Thus for % to matter between them Crows go 1-1, Eagles 2-0. Would suggest Eagles % would trend up, Crows down, giving Eagles the edge in that regard. Both have a game they should % boost in, Crows v Saints, Eagles v Dees in Perth. Crows edge would be they have their % boost game in last round and start slightly later than Eagles in last round so might know what they have to do to make finals and have the pedal fully to the floor, so to speak.

Not sure the relevance of Dees vs Roos not being easy after Dees horrid performance against GWS. Dees have to front Eagles in between and would be trying to atone there. Personally I think they should get thrashed again by an Eagles outfit clutching to last chance at finals and have two bad games to atone for against North. North if lose to Crows though will have their own atoning to do and with a lot more class than the Dees I can't see them losing the game if it's the difference in them making the 8.

I think you are underestimating Demons in the game vs Eagles. I hardly think they're going to come out like they did agaisnt GWS. Don't be surprized if its a low scoring game.

 

[Lefthanded]

I think you are underestimating Demons in the game vs Eagles. I hardly think they're going to come out like they did agaisnt GWS. Don't be surprized if its a low scoring game.

Maybe but I know Eagles have more to play for and were underrated in games against Crows & possibly Pies. Combine that with home deck and can see a big win.

 

[Rourke]

From the Live AFL Ladder website:

• Adelaide lose to North 58-93 then beat St Kilda 102-63
• Richmond belt St Kilda 156-40 then lose 76-80 in Sydney
• West Coast scrape through 77-70 over Melbourne then 101-99 over Gold Coast

Final totals: all three on 44 points with a ratio of 21:19 (110.5263%; Crows 2100-1900, the others 1953-1767)

This is useful as a boundary case to see what happens to percentage. Richmond have a lot of ground to make up, and West Coast have about the same upside as Adelaide but the Crows get to play last on Sunday so they'll know what to aim for.

Personally I think Adelaide will win in Hobart this week and spoil the party.

 

[JHF1870]

Maybe but I know Eagles have more to play for and were underrated in games against Crows & possibly Pies. Combine that with home deck and can see a big win.

So you're saying the Demons have nothing to play for? What about, pride, respect, their future.

 

[Lefthanded]

So you're saying the Demons have nothing to play for? What about, pride, respect, their future.

No I said Eagles have more to play for. ie they have everything the Dees have to play for plus a chance at finals. They also have the support of the crowd, lack of travel to the game and much better form. Before you say Eagles already have price & respect and aren't playing for their future, think if that still is the case if they lose to Melbourne in Perth.

 

[JHF1870]

No I said Eagles have more to play for. ie they have everything the Dees have to play for plus a chance at finals. They also have the support of the crowd, lack of travel to the game and much better form. Before you say Eagles already have price & respect and aren't playing for their future, think if that still is the case if they lose to Melbourne in Perth.

Ok, Well I still disagree. I feel like right now, the Demons have just as much to play for as West Coast. Just because WC have a chance to make the finals. People who think WC will coast along in this game will get a shock. They'll probably win, but it won't be a stroll in the park.

 

[Air_Chester]

It's 2am and I was a bit bored so I sat through the slogging task for the ladder predictor (slogging this early on in the season anyway) and figured I'd share my results.

Here's my top 8 from the preditions threads on March 12...

Top four: Hawthorn, Geelong, North Melbourne, Fremantle
Next four: Sydney, Essendon, Adelaide, Gold Coast
Premier: Geelong
Runner-up: Fremantle

And here's what I came up with in the ladder predictor...

And here's the finals series...

So I haven't changed my opinions much. The only real change is swapping North and Port because I didn't believe Port were the real deal until last week, and I didn't accept that North weren't that good until the Bulldogs game. Needless to say Port's last quarter fitness scares me.

The bottom five will exchange wins against each other through the year, and ignoring the likely upset here or there, that's where all their wins will come from. I expect a few floggings later on for them, but I did see them being competitive through the year for the most part. As Port, West Coast and Gold Coast have shown in recent years, you can springboard nicely after bottoming out. Basically a practice run for these five for next year.

I thought I'd have Collingwood winning a couple more, in all honesty, and I could have botched the positions of 9-13, but I expect them in that group. And no, not taking the piss with Richmond, I actually thought they'd be where Collingwood are.

I can't lie, I took some liberties with the prelim-GF games, because Geelong getting revenge on Freo and then knocking off old mate Hawthorn SHOULD have been last year's finals series and I was ROBBED of it. But we'll see how it goes.


Other tidbits I came across while doing the home and away rounds:

- Geelong and Hawthorn undefeated when they meet in Round 5
- Geelong and Port undefeated when the meet in Round 6
- Port won't lose until they play Freo in Round 8
- Geelong and Freo to meet with 1 loss each in Round 9
- Had Geelong winning three games in a row by 100+ points in Rounds 16-18 (because I'm a sadist)
- Had three separate 100 point games in Round 18
- Hawthorn not losing again after Round 5 to lose two in a row to Freo/Geel
- Sydney beating Richmond and GC knocking off WCE to see GC make the 8 ahead of a Rich/WCE in Round 23

I stand by all this and I'll do the predictor again after Round 12 to see how I'm travelling.

Overrated Essendon (as you do), underrated North and Sydney, the rest is solid. Still believe Adelaide will make finals, still believe Gold Coast would have if Ablett hadn't gone down.

Nothing, and nor did I say Melbourne are better than St.Kilda. What I did way was that the bottom handful of teams all suck equally.

I stand by this statement. Essendon lost to both of them and the embarrassment I still feel is strong.

 

[Piss Poor]

Ok, Well I still disagree. I feel like right now, the Demons have just as much to play for as West Coast. Just because WC have a chance to make the finals. People who think WC will coast along in this game will get a shock. They'll probably win, but it won't be a stroll in the park.

How did that turn out for ya, it was a stroll in the park after all,

 

[JHF1870]

How did that turn out for ya, it was a stroll in the park after all,

Dont get em all right. Howsthis thread turned out.

 

[kfc1]

Wow lol. Whats even more scary, you post this ladder after you have reviewed the draw /laughs. If richmond finished 10th ill shave my scrotum and eat my own shit.

Well this is awkward.

 

[MooreTreloar]

Well this is awkward.

As awkward as the free BJ's if Collingwood finished 16th?

 

[Tippett2Goal]

1 Syd 20
2 Fre 19.5
3 Haw 18.5
4 Gee 16.5
5 Nth 16
6 Coll 15
7 Rich 14
8 Carl 12
9 Port 12
10 Ade 10
11 GC 9.5
12 Ess* 9
13 WC 7.5
14 WB 6
15 Bris 5.5
16 Mel 2.5
17 GWS 2
18 StK 2

Pretty pleased with that effort to be honest.
under rated essendon/port and overrated collingwood and carlton

 

[JHF1870]

Pretty pleased with that effort to be honest.
under rated essendon/port and overrated collingwood and carlton

good job, It s real easy to over and underestimate the number of wins/losses. I reckon next year i'll under and over the two. Surprized no team hit the 19-20 game range. Real even

 

[Tiger71]

Well this is awkward.

/golf clap

Well, its the first season I want us to finish 9th if we dont make it

 

[Schauermann]

good job, It s real easy to over and underestimate the number of wins/losses.

Agree. Mostly because nobody will take upsets into account. He did a pretty decent effort but surely how could he have taking into account that Sydney lose to GWS and Freo to St. Kilda? Those were his top and bottom 2...

 

[JHF1870]

Agree. Mostly because nobody will take upsets into account. He did a pretty decent effort but surely how could he have taking into account that Sydney lose to GWS and Freo to St. Kilda? Those were his top and bottom 2...

not specific losses, but perhaps a percentage.

I always find my predictions throughout the year end up predicting sides like Hawthorn not to lose a game in the last 10 games, but inevitably they end up losing 1-2 or 3.

 

[Tippett2Goal]

good job, It s real easy to over and underestimate the number of wins/losses. I reckon next year i'll under and over the two. Surprized no team hit the 19-20 game range. Real even

Yeah I was probably overly optimistic in the Swans case, I had them winning their first 4 games not going 1-3, and 4 50/50 games for the year.
Fremantle losing to the Saints was a prediction killer as well.

Agree. Mostly because nobody will take upsets into account. He did a pretty decent effort but surely how could he have taking into account that Sydney lose to GWS and Freo to St. Kilda? Those were his top and bottom 2...

I certainly wasn't taking that into account, they were solid wins to Syd/Freo in the model.
But as said, pretty happy with the result considering it is all predicted before round 1, and any injuries/upsets/form etc is known.

not specific losses, but perhaps a percentage.

I always find my predictions throughout the year end up predicting sides like Hawthorn not to lose a game in the last 10 games, but inevitably they end up losing 1-2 or 3.

I used a simple 1, 0, 0.5, ie win/loss 50/50 for every game, certain teams had a large number of 50/50 games, which resulted in them having a large range, without checking for specifics Gold coast had the most 50/50 games, Richmond 10 whilst Freo 5, Sydney 4 were at other end of scale.

Due to how variable the season is im actually not sure that moving to a full percentage basis would improve the model at all, might try that next year and see how it works out compared to just 1,0,.5.

 

[JHF1870]

Yeah I was probably overly optimistic in the Swans case, I had them winning their first 4 games not going 1-3, and 4 50/50 games for the year.
Fremantle losing to the Saints was a prediction killer as well.



I certainly wasn't taking that into account, they were solid wins to Syd/Freo in the model.
But as said, pretty happy with the result considering it is all predicted before round 1, and any injuries/upsets/form etc is known.



I used a simple 1, 0, 0.5, ie win/loss 50/50 for every game, certain teams had a large number of 50/50 games, which resulted in them having a large range, without checking for specifics Gold coast had the most 50/50 games, Richmond 10 whilst Freo 5, Sydney 4 were at other end of scale.

Due to how variable the season is im actually not sure that moving to a full percentage basis would improve the model at all, might try that next year and see how it works out compared to just 1,0,.5.

There's always at least 1 team each year that wins a heap of close games, and one that loses a heap of close games. Pretty hard to predict really.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

1. Fremantle. Pav, McPharlin fully fit plus Sylvia to cover any little remaining holes they had in their midfield.
2. Sydney. Again, a lot of Sydney's defenders had injures last year and were probably the most injury affected team of 2013, plus obviously Buddy is a huge inclusion for them
3. Hawthorn. Losing Buddy will be a huge blow, plus only minimal youngsters to come into the team to cover for the older players who are now a year older
4. Richmond. Easy draw, Cotchin to have a good year and be a good captain, as much as I hate Richmond can see them finishing top 4.
5. Port Adelaide. I really like what they're doing down at Alberton, some good off season acquisitions, their Forward line is really well balanced and Boak is a great leader
6. Geelong. Selwood could very well win the Brownlow this season, great leader, he'll cover up any potential downfall. The introduction of young players by Scott since he first came, will stop the team going into freefall down the ladder.
7. North Melbourne. A lot of question marks on Brad Scott's coaching but there's no doubt about the talent of their midfield, and they have the forward line players to cover for Petrie's declining output.
8. Collingwood. Can see them just sneaking into the finals, with Beams returning and I'm tipping Sidebottom to have a breakout, top-25 player in the league sort of season. But even then I believe they'll just sneak in.
9. West Coast. Last year was a blip. But Simpson is a good coach and with players like Natanui and Shuey having fulls seasons I can see them coming back.
10. Western Bulldogs. A lot of young players with another year's experience, plus a relatively easy draw, plus the form shown in the second half of the year, I believe that we can push for finals
11. Adelaide. Walker returning will be big, plus Dangerfield is still young and can only get better.
12. Gold Coast - they'll improve, but still big question marks on the ability to win away from home, still some question marks in certain areas, plus shock horror, Ablett won't be as effective in 2014 as 2013.
13. Essendon. Without their coach, with the ASADA issue hanging over their heads, losing their leading Goalkicker and Watson's output likely to decrease, a big fall for Essendon, in my opinion, is probable.
14. Carlton. Mick Malthouse isn't a miracle worker. Murphy having a down year which is likely to continue, Judd likely to be ineffectual, too many one-paced inside midfielders plus Betts, despite a low output, will be a bad loss. Thomas won't do much to improve, at Collingwood there was always 3-4 better midfielders but at Carlton will crumble out of closer attention
15. Melbourne. Sure, they'll improve, but they're coming off two wins and even a five win improvement, a realistic goal, will likely still have them as a bottom 4 team. Midfield recruits, even if they not the greatest players floating around, will take pressure of Trengrove, Viney et al. and allow them to develop better.
16. GWS. Again, a five win improvement will still see GWS finish bottom 4. Natural development, but they should be worried about the speed of it.
17. Brisbane. Having their 2010 and 2011 drafts wiped out, unfortunately, Brown on his last legs, Trent West (!!) playing as a key forward/second ruck, plus a new coach and new game plan, I sense Brisbane will seriously go down hill, despite the efforts of some of the league's best youngsters in Rockliff and Hanley
18. St. Kilda. Hardly any very young players notable, Steven pretty much a team carry, two young Key Defenders who are still learning the role and Riewoldt and Montagna getting on with age, plus losing McEvoy is a big blow.

Missed the mark with Richmond, Dogs, Essendon, Brisbane, but a very decent effort, happy with myself.