not to bad, my hatred for port my downfall. will put them 13th again next year.
AFL 2014 Ladder Predictions
- Thread starter Rhysswans13
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not to bad, my hatred for port my downfall. will put them 13th again next year.
eth-dog
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Got the members of the top 8 right, swap Carlton with West Coast and it's pretty ****ing close.
Overated Collingwood, Underated Geelong (maybe its next year they will drop) and port
Only picked 5 of the top 8 probably, maybe 6, so that's not great.
Really expected more of Richmond, as most did, went out on a limb with Geelong being the big slider.
Given the number of close wins you could hardly be blamed.iirc you had geelong about their worth imo.
- Feb 27, 2012
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So close wins now equate to should have been losses. Where do people make this stuff up.
A win is a win no matter which way it is obtained.
eth-dog
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Last year Essendon were apparently overrated because of it and North underrated because of it.
- Feb 27, 2012
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Doesn't change the fact that North regardless of close losses or close wins they where the opposite and ended up where they did.
The title of underrated is just that, a title. Coulda woulda shoulda. Doe's not make them better than they are.
indy nile
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Seven out of eight aint bad
No, but in games that could have gone either way you expect them to follow a fairly normal distribution.
When doing predictions if you have Geelong with 10 60/40 games, you would expect them to win 6 lose 4, despite being favorites in all of them.
This year Geelong has won a lot (pretty much all?) of their 50/50 games, no prediction system which uses logic would assume that happening.
You should read one of my earlier posts that dissected the complete Geelong Season. The points suggest they're in the top 4, but the results are less than convincing.
- Feb 27, 2012
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Results of 16 wins and 5 losses.
Who said a win had to be one way or another, I'm sure North Melbourne of 2013 will take less than convincing results and trade them for wins.
I also commented on this in a previous post. Every year, a team gets lucky, and or a team gets unlucky.
IIRC Kangaroos could quite easily been in your position this year; last year. I don't think there's much difference other than you guys won the close games, and they lost em.
Let me sum things up.
Geelong have been smashed by top 4 sides and GCS.
Escaped with a victory over sides (9-14) with close games
Smashed the bottom 6ish sides.
Relied on an after the siren miss to win the game against Freo (have to admit, very lucky)
I don't care how many people in the media want to get off on Geelong, they aren't a top 4 side despite the fact that they sit in the top 4. We will find out in the finals.
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Can we?? I'll take the 7 point win over Adelaide over 2 one point losses.
In finals there is no % ladder.
- Feb 27, 2012
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It's all about the preparation for finals, which I think is better this year. In 2013 the cats went (5-0) against top 4 sides and did not equate to much at all, other than home and away wins. Like you said come finals time we will see if Geelong are good enough, If not so be it more time for the younger brigade next year to keep improving.
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Overrated Richmond, but otherwise not bad!
Could still finish 3rd
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- Jun 19, 2006
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The problem with that is that you have to show who from outside the 4 is better than Geelong.
So who is it?
Port Adelaide? They're likely to finish 3 games behind Geelong unless they can get over an injury and suspension cripple Fremantle. Their early form was also helped by getting good teams at home at the right time. They played Geelong at home immediately after their game against Hawthorn when they always struggle, they got Hawthorn at home when riddled with injuries and they got Fremantle at home when they were in poor form. So despite getting some luck with timing of when and where they played other competitors they're likely to finish 3 games back from Geelong so it's hard to argue they're better.
North Melbourne? Geelong played them twice and beat them twice comfortably. There's just no way North are a better team.
It's all well and good saying Geelong have won all their 50-50 games but a lot of the close games haven't really been 50-50. Games against Collingwood, Richmond and GWS for example look close but none of those teams had even 1 chance to go in front late in the last quarter. Against Carlton the second time and Essendon, Geelong were clearly the better side when the game was on the line late in the last quarter. The only 2 genuine 50-50s were against Fremantle and the first time against Carlton. We would've been very unlucky to lose any more than 2 out of all those games. Even if we'd lost 2 of those, and with Port Adelaide's lucky draw, and with us throwing in weird tactical moves when we were way in front of Hawthorn last week (Jordal Lewis even admitted that Geelong's tactics weren't normal on 360 last night), our biggest contender for a top 4 spot still would've had to beat Fremantle away from home in the last round to keep us out of the 4. That sure sounds like a team performing as one of the top 4 sides in the competition to me.
There'd be a pot of gold at the end of that rainbowYou should $100 on that and Buddy going goalless champ
- Apr 2, 2013
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Funny reading back this thread. Nobody has really gotton it spot on but as a patchwork from posters the overall trend is pretty right.
Personally some utterly horrendous fu&* ups but 6-8 isn't too bad in hindsight. Just got the order wrong. 2 I got right were Carlton to fall and Hawks to remain dominant while royally stuffing Port dropping and West Coast being a contender. (Thou they may make it and give me 7.)
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And the awards for best predictions go to:
