AFL 2014 ROUND 1

[iluvparis]

Ross Lyon has won 6/7 round 1 games at ES.And another stat if a RL coached team is in front at 3/4 time ,he has a 100% win record.

Weren't St Kilda in front in the 2009 GF at 3/4 time?

 

[GROTTO]

GF St Kilda3.2 7.7 9.11 9.14 (68)lost to Cats 3.0 7.1 9.4 12.8 (80)

 

[GROTTO]

Ross Lyon has won 6/7 round 1 games at ES.And another stat if a RL coached team is in front at 3/4 time ,he has a 100% win record.

Maybe just for the H&A season?

 

[free at last]

Weren't St Kilda in front in the 2009 GF at 3/4 time?

ES stats only.

 

[free at last]

Maybe just for the H&A season?

Yep H&A only.

 

[hayes]

Schulz will be there. He would have played on the weekend if we needed him.

He played with the same injury for the last 2 months of 2013.

Be careful our record at Etihad is shit apart from a narrow win over the Saints last year. Having said that we should win.

Wouldn't that record have more to do with Port being an ordinary team for so long? Even when Carlton are playing well they have a hard time winning at Etihad. Definitely value in Port because at the end of the day I think they're just the better team.

 

[hayes]

I have $500 on Melbourne @ $2.20. I took that a month ago because I figured at best Melbourne would be $1.90 come bounce down.

Options:
1) Let the bet ride
2) Throw $400 worth on Saints @ $2.50 on promotional "money back" markets to guarantee either a $100 or $200 profit at worst
3) Throw $500 on Saints at $2 lines across different agencies like Topsport, Betstar, Pinnacle so at worst I break even, or win $100 or $1100.

Who's offering those money back markets mate (please don't say sportsbet)? I'd be happy to take the guaranteed profit to build up my bankroll for now so wouldn't mind looking into something like this.

 

[TheKanga]

Ok official bets for week 1 of round 1

Collingwood h2h - 2u @ 2.05
Gold Coast h2h - 2u @ 2.50

multi

Collingwood
Gold Coast
Carlton

2u @ 8.15

Bets for week 2 of round 1

Adelaide H2h - 1u @ 3.35

multi

Adelaide +22.5
North -5.5
Hawks -46.5
St Kilda +12.5
WCE -22.5

1u @ 25.42

 

[TheKanga]

Sportsbet Offer
Aussie Rules!
The AFL is back and so are our offers! Check out what we're kicking your way to celebrate the new season!

• • Place a head to head bet on ANY game in Round 1 or Round 2
  • If your team is leading at any break but lose the match, we'll refund your bet!

Only up to $100.

Been using centrebet lately, but with this offer i might go back to sportsbet.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Wouldn't that record have more to do with Port being an ordinary team for so long? Even when Carlton are playing well they have a hard time winning at Etihad. Definitely value in Port because at the end of the day I think they're just the better team.

Port have lost their last 7 in a row to mick malthouse coached teams, dating back to 2006

 

[hayes]

Port have lost their last 7 in a row to mick malthouse coached teams, dating back to 2006

More recent form is what matters to me, not when Malthouse was coaching a top 4 team and Port were on the bottom.

Like most round 1 matches I think this will be a no bet game for me. I'll probably just see if I can make use of betstar's $2 favourites to come out either even or up on a couple of games.

 

[onlyoneleft]

sportsbet odds as of 11/03/14

h2h saints $2.45 vs Melb 1.55

Is it just me or are these great odds for the saints - yeah 2013 the saints won 5 with the dees 2 - I can't see melbourne winning this game - is it on the back of the Paul Roos appointment or am I missing something out of melb pre - season? Anyway opening round multi at $8.41 looks good too:

h2h
saints 2.45
hawks 1.08
cats 1.33
port 2.30
swans 1.04

 

[Lensen]

The odds are because of the unavailabilities of Hayes/Steven/Montagna.

Whether that's an over reaction or not, we'll see.

 

[onlyoneleft]

The odds are because of the unavailabilities of Hayes/Steven/Montagna.

Whether that's an over reaction or not, we'll see.

hmmm thx for that lenny - makes a bit more sense ...

 

[hayes]

Hate betting against my team but with Steven, Montagna and Hayes out we're relying on a bunch of young players who we're hoping will improve + Armo and Jones. Not exactly a recipe for success.

In saying that it is Melbourne who are unpredictable with a new coach, and that's why it's a do not touch game for me.

 

[onlyoneleft]

yeah its going to be a good one to watch - possible team selections pulled from boards:

Melb (JackAttack47)
B: Terlich - Frawley - Garland
HB: Grimes - McDonald - Toumpas
C: Viney - Watts - Vince
HF: Howe - Clark - Cross
F: Hogan - Dawes - Kent
R: Jamar - N Jones - Trengove
I/C: Tyson - Michie - Fitzpatrick - L Dunn
Emg: Fitzpatrick - Strauss - Blease


Siants (aussierulesrules)
B: WEBSTER DELANEY GWILT
HB: DEMPSTER FISHER ROBERTON
C: GEARY DUNSTAN RAY
HF: SAVAGE RIEWOLDT SCHNEIDER
F: LONGER MAISTER CURREN
R: HICKEY ARMO JONES
I: NEWNES WRIGHT SAUNDERS
emg: LEE, BILLINGS, MINCHINGTON, TEMPLETON

Some question marks over the fitness of Clark and Dawes but if they stay fit chance of an upset

saints (1-39) $3.20 melb (1.39) $2.25

 

[TheKanga]

On paper both teams have decent forward lines, Saints have a weak midfield and defense compared to Melbourne's though

 

[KardiniaPark]

On paper both teams have decent forward lines, Saints have a weak midfield and defense compared to Melbourne's though

Except Hogan/Dawes/Clark aren't playing so it becomes a shambles this week. Hogan and Clark are 6 weeks away and Dawes is an absolute spud so I certainly wouldn't be backing them to kick a winning score. It will be very low scoring, both teams under 10 goals wouldn't surprise me.

 

[TheKanga]

Except Hogan/Dawes/Clark aren't playing so it becomes a shambles this week. Hogan and Clark are 6 weeks away and Dawes is an absolute spud so I certainly wouldn't be backing them to kick a winning score. It will be very low scoring, both teams under 10 goals wouldn't surprise me.

Yeah true i did hear they were out, i think i'll take STK at the line in my multi but that's about it.
Probably will be close either way.

 

[The_Doctor]

Some of the stats being posted i think are pretty irrelevant. I mean im sure Paul Roos coached teams have a very good record at the SCG but that doesnt mean im going to back Melbourne to beat them up there

 

[The_Doctor]

More recent form is what matters to me, not when Malthouse was coaching a top 4 team and Port were on the bottom.

Like most round 1 matches I think this will be a no bet game for me. I'll probably just see if I can make use of betstar's $2 favourites to come out either even or up on a couple of games.

Have Betstar said they are doing $2 favs? I couldnt see anything about it

 

[hayes]

Have Betstar said they are doing $2 favs? I couldnt see anything about it

Complete guess TBH, just going by what they've done in the past and what someone posted in here before. If not I'll work something out.

 

[X_box_X]

Who's offering those money back markets mate (please don't say sportsbet)? I'd be happy to take the guaranteed profit to build up my bankroll for now so wouldn't mind looking into something like this.

ATM only one I know is Sportsbet. Ladbrokes and Luxbet are usually good for some money back promos.

 

[X_box_X]

Betstar and Topsport both have $2 powerlines. Topsport's are better, though, given they allow an extra $100 on them.

TAB has an OK promotion with bets refunded on first goal scorer markets if a FF kicks the first goal. As per usual, though, you will have to find odds that are generous to make it worthwhile. You can usually find 2-3 players slightly over the odds.

 

[hayes]

Completely slipped my mind that betstar regularly have $2 NBA and NFL power lines, which obviously means they'd do it for AFL too.