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Summary
Richmond have made a selection shock ahead of Thursday night's qualifying final against Hawthorn, dropping premiership star Brandon Ellis for midfielder Kane Lambert. Ellis had played 18 matches through the home-and-away campaign, averaging 19.7 disposals, with his drive from half-back and through the midfield seen as an important part of the Tigers' premiership defence.
He had been dropped in round five but returned in round 10, and played in all matches from that point. But with the need to bring Lambert back, having recovered from ankle surgery which forced him out of the past two matches, Ellis was the unfortunate casualty. He was named as one of four emergencies. Teammate Dan Butler, who returned via the VFL last weekend, ran out of time to prove his fitness, and will instead play in the Tigers' VFL semi-final against Essendon on Saturday.
Tigers coach Damien Hardwick said Lambert, who had averaged 22.6 disposals this season and booted 15 goals, would "come in ready to go". The Hawks have made three changes, recalling defenders James Sicily and James Frawley and ruckman Jonathon Ceglar, while Kaiden Brand, David Mirra and Teia Miles were dropped for a night when history will be made when the two clubs clash for the first time in a finals series.
Sicily has not played since breaking his wrist against Brisbane in round 17 but was given medical clearance last week to resume. Frawley, who hurt his back against St Kilda in round 22, also returns, as does Ceglar, meaning the Hawks will field two frontline ruckmen against Toby Nankervis, with the Tigers preferring to use under-sized utility Shaun Grigg as back-up around the ground. Hawks tagger Daniel Howe, having returned through the VFL last weekend after a five-match suspension, was named as first emergency. Clarkson recently outlined part of his blueprint to upset the Tigers, that being to ensure their defenders cannot dominate through intercept marks and kickstart their rebound through forward handball.
Read more here
Who will win this game?
The winner advances to a preliminary final, but the loser will face a do-or-die final against Melbourne or Geelong. Reigning premier Richmond's form was shaky down the home-and-away season stretch by its lofty standards, whereas Hawthorn, other than a below-par outing against St Kilda in the penultimate round, powered home. Will the Tigers return to their best? Are the Hawks a serious threat? How will Jaeger O'Meara perform in his first final? Will Hawthorn play two ruckmen? Is there a selection surprise in store? Can Shane Edwards defy his underwhelming record against the Hawks?
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round 3: Richmond 15.12 (102) d Hawthorn 13.11 (89) at the MCG
The Hawks kicked five of the last six goals to slash a game-high 39-point deficit 90 seconds into the fourth quarter to a flattering 13 by the final siren. Trent Cotchin was best afield and Jack Riewoldt slotted four goals, while Hawthorn ball magnet Tom Mitchell's 42 disposals were 11 more than anyone else.
LAST FIVE TIMES
R3, 2018, Richmond 15.12 (102) d Hawthorn 13.11 (89) at the MCG
R20, 2017, Richmond 13.15 (93) d Hawthorn 9.10 (64) at the MCG
R18, 2016, Hawthorn 16.18 (114) d Richmond 5.14 (44) at the MCG
R7, 2016, Hawthorn 21.10 (136) d Richmond 13.12 (90) at the MCG
R18, 2015, Richmond 10.11 (71) d Hawthorn 7.11 (53) at the MCG
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Richmond
1. Patrick Dangerfield has enjoyed success against the Hawks as a forward, so the Tigers may consider using Dustin Martin in the same way. Trent Cotchin, Kane Lambert and Dion Prestia are good enough to hold the midfield fort.
2. Star opposition onballers got hold of Richmond at different stages this year, and Hawk Tom Mitchell was one of those in round three, when he accumulated 42 disposals and 11 clearances. Could the Tigers go with Cotchin or Jack Graham again on Mitchell – or maybe Prestia?
3. Richmond ranks fourth in 2018 for points scored from centre bounces despite Toby Nankervis' lack of hit-outs. But the Tigers have slipped to 13th in the past month, so don't be surprised if there are some tweaks in how they set up in the middle.
Hawthorn
1. Operation: Curb Dusty. Hawks tagger Dan Howe's five-match suspension ended in round 23 and he will play limited minutes in the VFL on Saturday. Howe did a decent job on Martin in round three and will run with the Tiger again.
2. Everyone has a theory on how to beat Richmond, but the popular one is to kick more, handball less and rack up uncontested marks. Methodical ball movement is a Hawthorn trademark, so it might be the perfect storm.
3. Ben McEvoy should have the edge in the ruck over Nankervis, but will the Hawks select Jon Ceglar to try ramming home that advantage? Ceglar can be effective in attack, too, so he could help engage Richmond's star-studded defence.
THE SIX POINTS
1. The Tigers led by 39 points early in the last quarter in their clash this season before the Hawks finished strongly to reduce the final margin to 13. Jack Riewoldt booted four goals for Richmond and Jarryd Roughead kicked the same for the Hawks.
2. Richmond finished the season ranked second for scoring, inside 50s and marks inside 50, while Hawthorn ranks sixth for goals, third for inside 50s and fifth for marks inside 50.
3. The Tigers have won their last three finals, but haven't won four in a row since they achieved it between 1980 and 1982. The Hawks are aiming for their first finals triumph since the 2015 Grand Final.
4. Hawthorn places second among the 2018 finalists for September experience with a combined 265 games, led by Shaun Burgoyne's 33. Richmond comes in seventh with a total of 114 finals.
5. The Tigers finished the home and away season as the best fourth-quarter team, winning 14 of them and boasting a margin of +205 points. Hawthorn's best term was the third at +213.
6. Both teams have five players in the top 50 of the Schick AFL Player Ratings, with Dustin Martin the leading Tiger at No.2 – down one spot this week – and Ben McEvoy the top Hawk at No.13.
WHAT THE COACHES SAY
Damien Hardwick: "We had (Tom Mitchell) and Trent (Cotchin) going head to head, then we went Jack Graham at various stages. We were happy and I think Hawthorn would be the same … (Mitchell)'s a tough player to stop. He's so clean. You can tag him and he might get 30; he's just so effective, he's so good and he's so smart."
Alastair Clarkson: "Both sides have been highly decorated sides in the competition, have very, very competitive, strong supporter bases with strong membership and it's extraordinary they haven't played against each other (in a final). But we defy history this next game, where we get an opportunity to play one another for big stakes."
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Hawthorn will welcome James Sicily back from a broken wrist for his first match since round 17. The Hawks firebrand was headed for a maiden All Australian selection before that injury and is a match-winner at his best, but will the Tigers try to get under his skin? Sicily missed the clubs' earlier clash through suspension.
PREDICTION: Richmond by 15 points
Richmond have made a selection shock ahead of Thursday night's qualifying final against Hawthorn, dropping premiership star Brandon Ellis for midfielder Kane Lambert. Ellis had played 18 matches through the home-and-away campaign, averaging 19.7 disposals, with his drive from half-back and through the midfield seen as an important part of the Tigers' premiership defence.
He had been dropped in round five but returned in round 10, and played in all matches from that point. But with the need to bring Lambert back, having recovered from ankle surgery which forced him out of the past two matches, Ellis was the unfortunate casualty. He was named as one of four emergencies. Teammate Dan Butler, who returned via the VFL last weekend, ran out of time to prove his fitness, and will instead play in the Tigers' VFL semi-final against Essendon on Saturday.
Tigers coach Damien Hardwick said Lambert, who had averaged 22.6 disposals this season and booted 15 goals, would "come in ready to go". The Hawks have made three changes, recalling defenders James Sicily and James Frawley and ruckman Jonathon Ceglar, while Kaiden Brand, David Mirra and Teia Miles were dropped for a night when history will be made when the two clubs clash for the first time in a finals series.
Sicily has not played since breaking his wrist against Brisbane in round 17 but was given medical clearance last week to resume. Frawley, who hurt his back against St Kilda in round 22, also returns, as does Ceglar, meaning the Hawks will field two frontline ruckmen against Toby Nankervis, with the Tigers preferring to use under-sized utility Shaun Grigg as back-up around the ground. Hawks tagger Daniel Howe, having returned through the VFL last weekend after a five-match suspension, was named as first emergency. Clarkson recently outlined part of his blueprint to upset the Tigers, that being to ensure their defenders cannot dominate through intercept marks and kickstart their rebound through forward handball.
Read more here
Who will win this game?
The winner advances to a preliminary final, but the loser will face a do-or-die final against Melbourne or Geelong. Reigning premier Richmond's form was shaky down the home-and-away season stretch by its lofty standards, whereas Hawthorn, other than a below-par outing against St Kilda in the penultimate round, powered home. Will the Tigers return to their best? Are the Hawks a serious threat? How will Jaeger O'Meara perform in his first final? Will Hawthorn play two ruckmen? Is there a selection surprise in store? Can Shane Edwards defy his underwhelming record against the Hawks?
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round 3: Richmond 15.12 (102) d Hawthorn 13.11 (89) at the MCG
The Hawks kicked five of the last six goals to slash a game-high 39-point deficit 90 seconds into the fourth quarter to a flattering 13 by the final siren. Trent Cotchin was best afield and Jack Riewoldt slotted four goals, while Hawthorn ball magnet Tom Mitchell's 42 disposals were 11 more than anyone else.
LAST FIVE TIMES
R3, 2018, Richmond 15.12 (102) d Hawthorn 13.11 (89) at the MCG
R20, 2017, Richmond 13.15 (93) d Hawthorn 9.10 (64) at the MCG
R18, 2016, Hawthorn 16.18 (114) d Richmond 5.14 (44) at the MCG
R7, 2016, Hawthorn 21.10 (136) d Richmond 13.12 (90) at the MCG
R18, 2015, Richmond 10.11 (71) d Hawthorn 7.11 (53) at the MCG
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Richmond
1. Patrick Dangerfield has enjoyed success against the Hawks as a forward, so the Tigers may consider using Dustin Martin in the same way. Trent Cotchin, Kane Lambert and Dion Prestia are good enough to hold the midfield fort.
2. Star opposition onballers got hold of Richmond at different stages this year, and Hawk Tom Mitchell was one of those in round three, when he accumulated 42 disposals and 11 clearances. Could the Tigers go with Cotchin or Jack Graham again on Mitchell – or maybe Prestia?
3. Richmond ranks fourth in 2018 for points scored from centre bounces despite Toby Nankervis' lack of hit-outs. But the Tigers have slipped to 13th in the past month, so don't be surprised if there are some tweaks in how they set up in the middle.
Hawthorn
1. Operation: Curb Dusty. Hawks tagger Dan Howe's five-match suspension ended in round 23 and he will play limited minutes in the VFL on Saturday. Howe did a decent job on Martin in round three and will run with the Tiger again.
2. Everyone has a theory on how to beat Richmond, but the popular one is to kick more, handball less and rack up uncontested marks. Methodical ball movement is a Hawthorn trademark, so it might be the perfect storm.
3. Ben McEvoy should have the edge in the ruck over Nankervis, but will the Hawks select Jon Ceglar to try ramming home that advantage? Ceglar can be effective in attack, too, so he could help engage Richmond's star-studded defence.
THE SIX POINTS
1. The Tigers led by 39 points early in the last quarter in their clash this season before the Hawks finished strongly to reduce the final margin to 13. Jack Riewoldt booted four goals for Richmond and Jarryd Roughead kicked the same for the Hawks.
2. Richmond finished the season ranked second for scoring, inside 50s and marks inside 50, while Hawthorn ranks sixth for goals, third for inside 50s and fifth for marks inside 50.
3. The Tigers have won their last three finals, but haven't won four in a row since they achieved it between 1980 and 1982. The Hawks are aiming for their first finals triumph since the 2015 Grand Final.
4. Hawthorn places second among the 2018 finalists for September experience with a combined 265 games, led by Shaun Burgoyne's 33. Richmond comes in seventh with a total of 114 finals.
5. The Tigers finished the home and away season as the best fourth-quarter team, winning 14 of them and boasting a margin of +205 points. Hawthorn's best term was the third at +213.
6. Both teams have five players in the top 50 of the Schick AFL Player Ratings, with Dustin Martin the leading Tiger at No.2 – down one spot this week – and Ben McEvoy the top Hawk at No.13.
WHAT THE COACHES SAY
Damien Hardwick: "We had (Tom Mitchell) and Trent (Cotchin) going head to head, then we went Jack Graham at various stages. We were happy and I think Hawthorn would be the same … (Mitchell)'s a tough player to stop. He's so clean. You can tag him and he might get 30; he's just so effective, he's so good and he's so smart."
Alastair Clarkson: "Both sides have been highly decorated sides in the competition, have very, very competitive, strong supporter bases with strong membership and it's extraordinary they haven't played against each other (in a final). But we defy history this next game, where we get an opportunity to play one another for big stakes."
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Hawthorn will welcome James Sicily back from a broken wrist for his first match since round 17. The Hawks firebrand was headed for a maiden All Australian selection before that injury and is a match-winner at his best, but will the Tigers try to get under his skin? Sicily missed the clubs' earlier clash through suspension.
PREDICTION: Richmond by 15 points
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