Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 7 - Cats v Blues Sat April 27th 4:35pm AEST (MCG)

[Bagger72]

Our injuries are a factor but not an excuse. My preferred line up when everyone is fit

B: Kemp Weitering Newman
HB: Williams McGovern Saad
C: Cottrell Cripps Acres
HF: Martin McKay Fogarty
F: Motlop Curnow Silvagni
R: TDK Cerra Walsh
IC: Docherty Kennedy Boyd Hewett Marchbank
E: Cunningham O. Hollands Pittonet

So my mathematics suggests we have 10 of 25 starting line up missing

Midfield will be fine but half back line and half forward line has been decimated.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Who??

Did you mistake this for the bay? It's a match preview thread. Take your trolling elsewhere.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Guthrie is available to play this week, though it's probably a fair bet that he'll be in the VFL.

This will be a good test for both teams and from Geelong's side, particularly in the middle and defence. Stewart is a huge out for us and though it was pleasing to see how the system held up against Brisbane once he was taken off, it's a different proposition against an opponent who has a week to prepare. Though Curnow in particular often goes well against us, I think we have the timber to match their talls in the forward line, even if Tom de Koning spends a fair bit of time there.

We'll be leaning on our experienced campaigners significantly to make a match of it in the middle and I'm guessing Cameron will spend a lot of his day between the arcs and forcing Carlton to find someone to run with him.

I'd love a win here and think it would be a huge statement early in the season. Feels a bit like we're playing with the house's money with another win on the weekend and Carlton will be desperate to not drop back with the pack. Think it will be the Blues by 2-3 goals.

Does Sam do any ruck work for you guys?
Would be cool to see Tom and Sam have a couple of ruck battles, as well as a couple of possible contests in our F50.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

All Australian players Saad and Docherty. Don't be so uninformed and try and learn about the people playing the game a little bit

I'd say it wasn't so much to do with lack of knowledge Worm4: but rather trying to be humorous through a pretence of disguised ignorance. Better off not replying because that's what they want you to do. Indeed we have some very strange folk here on Big Footy 'from all clubs' that like to amuse themselves in the strangest and unimaginative ways.

 

[JackFlash]

Geelong by 24 points, even without Stewart they will hold the Carlton forwards.

 

[Worm4]

Our injuries are a factor but not an excuse. My preferred line up when everyone is fit

B: Kemp Weitering Newman
HB: Williams McGovern Saad
C: Cottrell Cripps Acres
HF: Martin McKay Fogarty
F: Motlop Curnow Silvagni
R: TDK Cerra Walsh
IC: Docherty Kennedy Boyd Hewett Marchbank
E: Cunningham O. Hollands Pittonet

So my mathematics suggests we have 10 of 25 starting line up missing

Midfield will be fine but half back line and half forward line has been decimated.

I'm sick of talking about injuries . We have a good list that probably runs deeper than most. If someone goes down, next man in is good enough to do the job currently. Injuries are no longer an excuse for us as our bottom 6 or so are stronger than previous years

 

[Gazza Greatness]

I'm sick of talking about injuries . We have a good list that probably runs deeper than most. If someone goes gown, next man in is good enough to do the job currently. Injuries are no longer an excuse for us as our bottom 6 or so are stronger than previous years

But with sustained injuries to 'multiple key players' like Curnow and McKay for a length of time, it can still hurt a club big-time Worm4: but bye and large I agree with what you say if the club has the necessary depth of which both Carlton and Geelong appear to have. And as important and as good as some of the top midfielders in the comp are, they're much more replaceable than a couple of combined key positional talls like Charlie and Harry if they're both missing for a number of games.

PS - When Gazza Jnr and Buddy left their respective clubs in The Cats and The Hawks, both clubs went on to win the following years flag, who would have thought. So best not to whinge &/or use excuses as you say but rather to put your best foot forward, stay positive and strive to be better regardless of trying circumstances!

 

[bradfisher14]

Geelong by 24 points, even without Stewart they will hold the Carlton forwards.

Hopefully that'll lead to a few free kicks

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Does Sam do any ruck work for you guys?
Would be cool to see Tom and Sam have a couple of ruck battles, as well as a couple of possible contests in our F50.

He does occasionally but usually just pinch hitting.

Tom will destroy him in the ruck.

 

[JustaBattler]

Geelong by 24 points, even without Stewart they will hold the Carlton forwards.

Most teams played so far have been able to hold Charlie and Harry for 3 quarters....I think Carlton banged on 6 -7 unanswered goals in 12 or so minutes after b being held for 2 1/2 quarters against GWs- admittedly Taylor wasn't playing for them though.

That is the hill Carlton has managed to climb as the two forwards have developed - being able to score pretty quickly..

just as telling through ( on the flip side) sans McGovern/Saad and Williams - GWS were able to kick a big score against Carlton -McGovern and Saad will be a big out even if Weitering and Williams get up- the Geelong smaller forwards are fast and good finishers...

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

He does occasionally but usually just pinch hitting.

Tom will destroy him in the ruck.

You never know. Nothing like a bit of sibling rivalry to get the competitive juices flowing.

 

[Wosh]

Teams are up

 

[Art Vandelay_]

We're at 21/23 of our best side so expect a good performance.

 

[Hippster]

Our injuries are a factor but not an excuse. My preferred line up when everyone is fit

B: Kemp Weitering Newman
HB: Williams McGovern Saad
C: Cottrell Cripps Acres
HF: Martin McKay Fogarty
F: Motlop Curnow Silvagni
R: TDK Cerra Walsh
IC: Docherty Kennedy Boyd Hewett Marchbank
E: Cunningham O. Hollands Pittonet

So my mathematics suggests we have 10 of 25 starting line up missing

Midfield will be fine but

I'm sick of talking about injuries . We have a good list that probably runs deeper than most. If someone goes down, next man in is good enough to do the job currently. Injuries are no longer an excuse for us as our bottom 6 or so are stronger than previous years

Spot on. All teams have them.
And it’s not like guys he’s named like Marchbank, Fogerty, Motlop have shown much more than guys like Durdin or Owies or others he left out.
Great to add a Cunningham or Silvagni to pump up the outs and take out a better player like E Hollands.

 

[Mr Meow]

Guthrie will be rusty but he will still be a better option than Clark. More shuffling of Bowes/Atkins/Tuohy back to cover Stewart is my guess. It ain't perfect, but last year our backline also had Kolo and J.Henry out as well as Stewart.

 

[Jeremias]

Spot on. All teams have them.
And it’s not like guys he’s named like Marchbank, Fogerty, Motlop have shown much more than guys like Durdin or Owies or others he left out.
Great to add a Cunningham or Silvagni to pump up the outs and take out a better player like E Hollands.

Another who seems to have little idea about certain players and their importance to their clubs.

 

[carlton_99]

Spot on. All teams have them.

Every team has injuries but the quantity and quality of injuries varies from team to team significantly.

 

[Mr Meow]

Every team has injuries but the quantity and quality of injuries varies from team to team significantly.

Cerra, Gov, Saad, Doch, Martin and Fogarty are the major ones. Which is a good list of players. It's getting generous to ramp up the importance after that.

Let's face it, Walsh and Cripps alone would probably be as big of a loss, if not greater. Or Walsh, Weitering and McKay. And so on. Carlton's stars do a good amount of heavy lifting and are in their prime.

Carlton's midfield depth is terrific, so against a B-cast midfield (Geelong) that's not a concern. There's just some quality missing on the flanks and your second most important KPD is out.

As expected the whole thread has hyper focused on Carlton's injuries and whether we will be able to read anything into the result. I think that's a shame, and the basically even odds, with more neutrals tipping Carlton, says that injuries should NOT be the overriding feature of this game.

 

[carlton_99]

Cerra, Gov, Saad, Doch, Martin and Fogarty are the major ones. Which is a good list of players. It's getting generous to ramp up the importance after that.

Let's face it, Walsh and Cripps alone would probably be as big of a loss, if not greater. Or Walsh, Weitering and McKay. And so on. Carlton's stars do a good amount of heavy lifting and are in their prime.

Carlton's midfield depth is terrific, so against a B-cast midfield (Geelong) that's not a concern. There's just some quality missing on the flanks and your second most important KPD is out.

As expected the whole thread has hyper focused on Carlton's injuries and whether we will be able to read anything into the result. I think that's a shame, and the basically even odds, with more neutrals tipping Carlton, says that injuries should NOT be the overriding feature of this game.

I haven't said anything about our injuries in this thread they will never be the excuse for any performance but I just think it is naive when people act like every team is impacted by injuries the same at any point in time. Even worse when people who don't watch nearly as much of that team play football try and minimise their outs to supporters of that team

 

[Mr Meow]

I haven't said anything about our injuries in this thread they will never be the excuse for any performance but I just think it is naive when people act like every team is impacted by injuries the same at any point in time.

I somewhat disagree because they of course can impact performance. They were a big factor in destroying Geelong's season in 2023 (simply too many occasions with multiple important players missing/carrying niggles in the same parts of the field). But it is ALL people want to talk about, week after week, at the expense of anything else. Yes I'm doing the same, simply because that's all on offer in this thread to respond to.

In-game injuries matter more, as we saw with Carlton vs Adelaide. And star players, or multiple A/B+ graders from the same positions, are the ones that really hurt you.

So Gov is somewhat manageable because Weitering is there. It's not ideal, but imagine Weitering and Gov missing the same game.

Likewise Saad is a crucial piece, but it would be losing Williams on top that seriously starts cutting the rebound off at the knees.

Carlton's forwards outside of the keys could all be replaced with slightly better ones. But losing Curnow and McKay would be a bigger loss than missing 5 decent flankers.

Midfield wise, losing one more top liner is what would hurt. If Cripps joined Cerra on the sidelines, then it would be tricky. Geelong have had to deal with no Dangerfield and Guthrie a lot the past year and a bit. Having just one of them missing, you can manage.

Geelong are without its MVP this week. Stewart is basically McGovern + Saad combined for what he gives us. But...because the rest of them are there, we can adapt. If you threw Henry and Z.Guthrie out on top of that, THEN it's a critical issue.

So yes, injuries make a difference but almost writing off the match and saying there's 10 best 22 missing, this is practically a VFL side etc - it misses the mark. The stars, aided by useful role players, have good structures intact.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I'm interested to see how Geelong's 'no-name' midfield stacks up now that it's nearing full-strength. Now that the greybeards are back and players like Bruhn and Parfitt are like the fourth and fifth names you reel off, rather than the default headliners. It's still unlikely that we'll see any of Geelong's midfield feature in this year's AA team (potentially Miers as a HF), but I think on its day, a group consisting of Dangerfield, Guthrie, Blicavs, Holmes, Miers, Duncan, Bruhn, Parfitt, Bowes and Atkins can mix it with anyone and cause quite a few headaches themselves.

 

[Arr0w]

Should be a cracking game

Apart from Stewart, Cats have access to a full strength 23, so would be clear favourites for this game

 

[Mr Meow]

Should be a cracking game

Apart from Stewart, Cats have access to a full strength 23, so would be clear favourites for this game

That's not what the bookies or tipsters are saying. The odds are just slightly in the Cats favour. Average Joe on the street says the Cats are pretenders so are still going with the Blues (BigFooty tipping and this poll confirms that).

Blues fans are leaning into the underdog narrative like last week, which was also false.

 

[Arr0w]

That's not what the bookies or tipsters are saying. The odds are just slightly in the Cats favour. Average Joe on the street says the Cats are pretenders so are still going with the Blues (BigFooty tipping and this poll confirms that).

Blues fans are leaning into the underdog narrative like last week, which was also false.

I never base my assessments on what the bookies think, which is dictated by a majority of mug gamblers

 

[Mr Meow]

I never base my assessments on what the bookies think, which is dictated by a majority of mug gamblers

I very rarely bet; the odds are right in your face on the AFL website. I take your word that you have a Godly level of insight compared to the lines they set.

But the odds are rarely absurd and public/expert opinion reflects that. Of course you can make the argument that everybody is an idiot and you would probably be right, but we both fall under that umbrella too.

So yeah, no underdog status for the Blues this week but you are fine to pretend there is if it helps.

The majority of people rate the Blues higher than Geelong (for now), see the game is not at GMHBA and that Carlton has most of its stars available - the ones that drove them to victory over one of the premiership favourites last week.