Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 7 - Cats v Blues Sat April 27th 4:35pm AEST (MCG)

[Arr0w]

I very rarely bet; the odds are right in your face on the AFL website. I take your word that you have a Godly level of insight compared to the lines they set.

But the odds are rarely absurd and public/expert opinion reflects that. Of course you can make the argument that everybody is an idiot and you would probably be right, but we both fall under that umbrella too.

So yeah, no underdog status for the Blues this week but you are fine to pretend there is if it helps.

The majority of people rate the Blues higher than Geelong (for now), see the game is not at GMHBA and that Carlton has most of its stars available - the ones that drove them to victory over one of the premiership favourites last week.

Never suggested we are underdogs, I suggested that the Cats are rightly favourites in a game they are only missing 1 best 23, as opposed to us missing multiple best 23 for this game

 

[Bostonian]

Spot on. All teams have them.
And it’s not like guys he’s named like Marchbank, Fogerty, Motlop have shown much more than guys like Durdin or Owies or others he left out.
Great to add a Cunningham or Silvagni to pump up the outs and take out a better player like E Hollands.

Wrong

Fogerty was easily our best small forward before he got injured.

Miles in front of the others you named.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Geelong by 24 points, even without Stewart they will hold the Carlton forwards.

Your defenders will likely hold the Carlton forwards, which is why the umpires are going to pay them free kicks

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

That's not what the bookies or tipsters are saying. The odds are just slightly in the Cats favour. Average Joe on the street says the Cats are pretenders so are still going with the Blues (BigFooty tipping and this poll confirms that).

Blues fans are leaning into the underdog narrative like last week, which was also false.

Carlton were favourites last week.

This week we are the underdog.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

That's not what the bookies or tipsters are saying. The odds are just slightly in the Cats favour. Average Joe on the street says the Cats are pretenders so are still going with the Blues (BigFooty tipping and this poll confirms that).

Blues fans are leaning into the underdog narrative like last week, which was also false.

Agreed this game is as close to a line ball game as it gets.

The battle in the middle & pressure applied across the ground will be key.

Who can effectively supply their forwards.

It’s going to be a ripper.

 

[Hippster]

Wrong

Fogerty was easily our best small forward before he got injured.

Miles in front of the others you named.

Motlop has done nothing yet. E Hollands is best 22. The guy who wrote original team was just pumping up the numbers to act like Blues had only a half strength team.

 

[Hippster]

Another who seems to have little idea about certain players and their importance to their clubs.

So E Hollands isnt best 22?

 

[Hippster]

Wrong

Fogerty was easily our best small forward before he got injured.

Miles in front of the others you named.

I stand corrected.. Fogerty’s 9 possessions, .8 goals and 2 tackles a game in his 6 games so far makes him miles ahead.
54 touches, 11 tackles, 5 goals in 6 games.
Get off the gear!!

 

[Bostonian]

Motlop has done nothing yet. E Hollands is best 22. The guy who wrote original team was just pumping up the numbers to act like Blues had only a half strength team.

Our defensive structure is depleted of some vital talent at present.

If we have 14 injured players that's 25%+ of a list not available.

Not insignificant.

 

[Bostonian]

I stand corrected.. Fogerty’s 9 possessions, .8 goals and 2 tackles a game in his 6 games so far makes him miles ahead.
54 touches, 11 tackles, 5 goals in 6 games.
Get off the gear!!

You're clueless.

He's been very important to our forward pressure this season.

People who quote stats without context just make themselves look foolish.

 

[Hippster]

You're clueless.

He's been very important to our forward pressure this season.

People who quote stats without context just make themselves look foolish.

Not as foolish as people who overrate their outs and act like you have a VFL side running out every week.

 

[Hippster]

Our defensive structure is depleted of some vital talent at present.

If we have 14 injured players that's 25%+ of a list not available.

Not insignificant.

True.. when Don Akuei, Billy Wilson and Matt Carroll come off that injury list, things will get easier for you…

 

[Cleansweep17]

That's not what the bookies or tipsters are saying. The odds are just slightly in the Cats favour. Average Joe on the street says the Cats are pretenders so are still going with the Blues (BigFooty tipping and this poll confirms that).

Blues fans are leaning into the underdog narrative like last week, which was also false.

Cats need to win this week against an undermanned Blues to avoid the pretender tag. I don’t believe you guys have played a team in the 8 yet or maybe just 1?

 

[STPer18]

Cats need to win this week against an undermanned Blues to avoid the pretender tag. I don’t believe you guys have played a team in the 8 yet or maybe just 1?

6-1 pretender with 7 games to come at Kardinia Park. The rebuilding Geelong would happily wear whatever tag comes our way if that's what we're looking at you'd imagine.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

True.. when Don Akuei, Billy Wilson and Matt Carroll come off that injury list, things will get easier for you…

Picking the 3 worst players off a list of 15 doesn't really help your argument. The other 12 players all have serious claim to being best 22 (or 23), or at the very least, next cab off the rank in their position, if the best 22 player goes down (yes, Weiters and Williams have been named, but both are potentially late outs, who would likely be replaced by Cincotta and S. Durdin and would leave 4 first choice defenders out of the side).
Half of these 12 would be locks for the team and the other half would be playing VFL and putting pressure on the others to keep their spots.
I think it was last week's VFL game where we only had one player playing who had actual AFL games under his belt (Cincotta).

 

[Franc de Borges]

I’m backing us in. The team was outstanding last week.

There’s a real opportunity this season and it appears that the players know it.

 

[My Tilly]

Great to see Guthrie back. Huge inclusion even if he'll be rusty.

Carlton look top heavy. De Koning, Pittonet, Curnow, McKay.
I reckon Cameron will spend a bit of time behind the ball as we are undersized back there.

Like the Cats in this one.
A lot of creativity around the forward line. Hopefully O'Connor goes straight to one of Walsh or Cripps and sits on them for the entirety of the match.

Geelong by 22 points.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Great to see Guthrie back. Huge inclusion even if he'll be rusty.

Carlton look top heavy. De Koning, Pittonet, Curnow, McKay.
I reckon Cameron will spend a bit of time behind the ball as we are undersized back there.

Like the Cats in this one.
A lot of creativity around the forward line. Hopefully O'Connor goes straight to one of Walsh or Cripps and sits on them for the entirety of the match.

Geelong by 22 points.

If you add Weitering, Kemp and Young to our list, that's 7 players (fwds, rucks, def) 192cm or taller.
How is this any different to SDK, Cameron, Hawkins, Kolo, Henry, Blicavs, Stanley? All 192cm or taller.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Great to see Guthrie back. Huge inclusion even if he'll be rusty.

Carlton look top heavy. De Koning, Pittonet, Curnow, McKay.
I reckon Cameron will spend a bit of time behind the ball as we are undersized back there.

Like the Cats in this one.
A lot of creativity around the forward line. Hopefully O'Connor goes straight to one of Walsh or Cripps and sits on them for the entirety of the match.

Geelong by 22 points.

Calling Curnow a “tall” is a little limited.

Of course he can play tall - but what sets him apart is what he does at ground level.

Even with Pitto/TDK - the last thing we are is top heavy.

 

[Mr Meow]

Never suggested we are underdogs, I suggested there is basically nothing in it and it should be a great contest.

Agreed!

 

[Mr Meow]

Cats need to win this week against an undermanned Blues to avoid the pretender tag. I don’t believe you guys have played a team in the 8 yet or maybe just 1?

Cats need 4 or 5 more wins from the next 17 games to finish above your predicted 14th place finish.

All they are pretending to do so far is getting off to a solid start.

To keep the hunt for top 4 ticking along nicely we need to take one of the upcoming MCG games and two of the Port, Gold Coast and GWS contests. It's a long old season Sweepy!

 

[Mr Meow]

Never suggested we are underdogs, I suggested that the Cats are rightly favourites in a game they are only missing 1 best 23, as opposed to us missing multiple best 23 for this game

And the game being at the G, Carlton having beaten stronger sides and backing up their prelim 2023 efforts are probably the factors that pretty much even up the ledger. Cats would be more proven with a strong scalp like Carlton and backed more heavily by neutrals in similar games in the future. I.e they rate THIS Carlton side, the one missing a number of best 22 players, as an imposing team to beat.

 

[My Tilly]

If you add Weitering, Kemp and Young to our list, that's 7 players (fwds, rucks, def) 192cm or taller.
How is this any different to SDK, Cameron, Hawkins, Kolo, Henry, Blicavs, Stanley? All 192cm or taller.

McKay, De Koning and Curnow is a pretty tall forward half.
By comparison, only Hawkins would be limited. Cameron is a bit more agile around the ground than Curnow. He'll move into midfield as well as defense throughout the game.

Stengle, Dempsey, Close, Miers and Henry is where they can really cause some concerns.

Calling Curnow a “tall” is a little limited.

Of course he can play tall - but what sets him apart is what he does at ground level.

Even with Pitto/TDK - the last thing we are is top heavy.

Not sure Pittonet or De Koning will play as they did last week. Both played arguably the best games they have played for your club.
Law of averages suggests one will falter and that will play a role as the game progresses against a bit more run for the Cats.

 

[Peacock]

I noticed Geelong started playing differently in the back half of last year, but obviously didn't have enough time to get things clicking properly. This is a solid test to see exactly where Geelong are at. Next two weeks for them are big.

 

[Jeremias]

So E Hollands isnt best 22?

I never said that.

But given this...

I stand corrected.. Fogerty’s 9 possessions, .8 goals and 2 tackles a game in his 6 games so far makes him miles ahead.
54 touches, 11 tackles, 5 goals in 6 games.

I will say that you're either trolling, or genuinely have no clue as to Carlton and the importance of certain players to the way they want to play.

It's OK to say you haven't watched us or that you're not fully able to understand what has helped us elevate our game over the past 9 months or so.