Autopsy AFL 2024 Second Semi Final - Port v Hawks Fri Sept 13th 7:40pm EST/7:10pm CST (AO) Teams in OP

Who will win and by how much?

  • Port by a goal or less

    Votes: 14 6.0%
  • Hawks by a goal or less

    Votes: 7 3.0%
  • Port by 7 - 20

    Votes: 39 16.7%
  • Hawks by 7 - 20

    Votes: 71 30.3%
  • Port by a lot

    Votes: 12 5.1%
  • Hawks by a lot

    Votes: 89 38.0%
  • Draw

    Votes: 2 0.9%

  • Total voters
    234
  • Poll closed .

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AFL 2024 PREMIERSHIP SEASON
SECOND SEMI FINAL
PORT ADELAIDE V HAWTHORN
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 13TH 7:40PM EST/7:10PM CST (ADELAIDE OVAL)


Live scores on BigFooty during the match.

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Teams:
POWER

B: La.Jones, B.Zerk-Thatcher, M.Bergma
HB: J.Sinn, A.Aliir, L.Evans
C: J.Burgoyne, O.Wines, W.Drew
HF: D.Byrne-Jones, E.Ratugolea, W.Rioli
F: M.Georgiades, C.Dixon, C.Rozee - C
FOLL: J.Sweet, J.Horne-Francis, Z.Butters

I/C: T.Boak, Q.Narkle, J.Mead, F.Evans, T.Marshall
EMG: W.Lorenz, D.Visentini, D.Williams

IN: J.Sinn, T.Marshall
OUT: R.Burton (Injured), J.McEntee (Omitted)

HAWKS
B: B.Hardwick, J.Serong, J.Impey
HB: J.Ward, J.Sicily - C, J.Scrimshaw
C: K.Amon, D.Moore, J.Weddle
HF: F.Maginness, M.Chol, C.Macdonald
F: J.Ginnivan, L.Breust, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J.Worpel, J.Newcombe

I/C: H.Morrison, M.D’Ambrosio, J.Gunston, C.Dear, C.Nash
EMG: H.Hustwaite, C.Jiath, N.Reeves

IN: J.Serong
OUT: S.Frost (Injured)


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Luke Breust - 300 games

Veteran Hawthorn forward Luke Breust will become the ninth Hawk to reach the coveted 300-game milestone tonight. The 33-year-old has had a highly decorated 15-year career so far, winning three premierships, earning two All Australian blazers and winning the club’s goalkicking five times. Breust has also played more games than anyone in the 18-team era (282) and holds the rookie games record, having being drafted with Pick 47 in the 2009 Rookie Draft. The Hawks co-vice captain could notch up a second milestone tonight, as he is currently two majors away from kicking 550 career goals. His wife, Anthea and their daughter, Freya will be in Hawthorn’s Guard of Honour as the team runs out on Adelaide Oval tonight.

Dylan Moore - 100 games

Hawthorn Co-Vice-Captain Dylan Moore will play his 100th AFL match tonight. Moore was selected with Pick 67 in the 2017 national draft and made his AFL debut in Round 3, 2019. In recent years, Moore has established himself as a vital member of Hawthorn’s line-up, culminating in his 2024 maiden All Australian selection. This year, Moore has played every game to date, with strong averages of 19.6 disposals, 5.3 marks, 4.1 inside 50s, 3.9 tackles and 35 total goals.
 
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H2H record in Finals:
  • SF (2001) = Port Adelaide 69-72 Hawthorn
  • PF (2014) = Hawthorn 97-94 Port Adelaide
Hawthorn leads the H2H record 2-0.
Don't remember 2001 but the 2014 game was the toughest game the threepeat Hawks played.

Seems a bit over the top that the Power have been written off. This should be a close game.
 
I know its cliche to write off the QF loser but in this case it makes sense. Especially if Port are without Butters.

I think Hawthorn should start favourites. But Port can spring a surprise, especially if they fire early.

It'll probably be a closer match than most people in here are going to predict.

Hawks by 2 goals.
 
Don't remember 2001 but the 2014 game was the toughest game the threepeat Hawks played.

Seems a bit over the top that the Power have been written off. This should be a close game.
The 2001 match was only a few days after 9/11.

John Barker kicked the winner with about 2 minutes to go.
 
Don't remember 2001 but the 2014 game was the toughest game the threepeat Hawks played.

Seems a bit over the top that the Power have been written off. This should be a close game.
Yes, that 2014 finals series was the opposite to what finals have become for Port in recent years. They were sort of like what Hawthorn is now - new coach, young side full of exuberance, finished outside the top 4 but with a great form line. Smashed Richmond at home, went over to Subi and knocked Freo out in straight sets, and then that prelim was a huge missed opportunity for Port and close call for the Hawks. I remember Port just running all over them and completely dominating in the first quarter but were putrid in front of goal. Biggest case of choking in front of goal in a final we'd seen since the 2008 GF. The game could have been gone in the first if Port had been accurate.

But on the second point - I think there's plenty of reason to write off Port, and one is that this follows a trend they set in the finals last year, where they were comprehensively beaten first up and then also lost the semi to go out in straight sets. A QF finalist getting thrashed as a rarity, but in recent times there's a high correlation between it happening and the side proceeding to go out in straight sets the following week. Either kills the team's momentum or exposes that they weren't really a top 4 level team.

Port would have taken a huge confidence hit against Geelong, and they're also walking wounded with key players missing and others potentially playing injured. The only saving grace for them is that it's at their home ground, and I'm sure they'd be hoping that the young legs of Hawthorn will be getting tired, and the extra travel time would add enough weight to them, to enable them to pip them. But thus far, the Hawks side has given us few reasons to think they'd be perturbed by the challenge or the occasion, and there was a stark contrast between how Hawthorn played on Friday and Port on Thursday.
 
I think Hawthorn will win, though Port have the wood on Sydney if they can get through this one. Maybe that will be an incentive to dig deep, but they're probably mentally shot after the Geelong debacle.
 

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One saving grace for Port is that they'll put a line through Dixon and probably Butters; one of whom is cooked and the other clearly not right to play. It would've been so deflating (as a teammate) watching Charlie limp around the other night.
If Port go small up forward it'll potentially be quite competitive
 
Hawthorn the media and neutral fan favourites to win easily.
Port Adelaide with no external expectations.
So Port Adelaide by less than a goal from a fast finishing Hawthorn.
 
One saving grace for Port is that they'll put a line through Dixon and probably Butters; one of whom is cooked and the other clearly not right to play. It would've been so deflating (as a teammate) watching Charlie limp around the other night.
If Port go small up forward it'll potentially be quite competitive
Georgiades and Rioli is our entire forward line now.

With DBJ needed down back to cover Farrell/Houston injuries, JHF needed in middle to cover Butters likely out, Dixon cooked, Marshall available but not match fit, Finlayson and Powell-Pepper out for the season.

The only way I can see Port Adelaide winning (and Ken won’t change anything so not expecting this) is that we play a defensive, numbers behind the ball, chip, keeping’s off game and win in a low scoring grind. Hawthorn def favourites however.

If Butters is selected to play, could maybe try a Georgiades/JHF/Rioli forward line.
 
One saving grace for Port is that they'll put a line through Dixon and probably Butters; one of whom is cooked and the other clearly not right to play. It would've been so deflating (as a teammate) watching Charlie limp around the other night.
If Port go small up forward it'll potentially be quite competitive
Todd Marshall in Dixon out.
Big Sav at centre half forward about 60m out. Marshall in the goalsquare. This will force 2 or Weddle/Scrimshaw/Sicily/Frost to be accountable.
 
One saving grace for Port is that they'll put a line through Dixon and probably Butters; one of whom is cooked and the other clearly not right to play. It would've been so deflating (as a teammate) watching Charlie limp around the other night.
If Port go small up forward it'll potentially be quite competitive

According to C. Cornes at least, Dixon stays in:

“Charlie, I've heard a little bit of talk about him. He was the first one to come up to me after the game and, not apologise, but you know, in language that you can't say here, the thing I love about him is he knows when he hasn't played to his level, he's really honest and open with that. I back what he's done over the last month. I thought his form leading into this was solid, and he was playing a really good role for us. So like I said, I love the honesty with Charlie, and I know how he’ll want to turn that around.

“His body is really good, and he's one like you said, that does like the continuity, so maybe missing the two weeks isn’t ideal for him, not an excuse, it's just the reality. He wasn't right to go in the Freo game (due to illness). But hopefully he'll be better after one week. And I know he will, I know he'll try harder than anyone else out on the field Friday night.

Bit rough on Dix to share a farewell game with Hinkley, but there you go.
 
If I were Hawthorn I wouldn’t risk Day and save him for the Sydney game.

Hawks also have the under the radar advantage of getting the Friday night prelim so they could have an 8 day break into the GF.
 
If I were Hawthorn I wouldn’t risk Day and save him for the Sydney game.

Hawks also have the under the radar advantage of getting the Friday night prelim so they could have an 8 day break into the GF.
It's not an advantage for the away team (could still be Port, I'm not as convinced that it is a foregone conclusion that Port will fold for the Hawks as many are predicting) that has to travel there, fly out the same night or stay the night in unfamiliar surroundings.

The reason it's held on a Friday night is to reward the team that finished first on the ladder. Unless it is another Sydney based team (Giants) that advantage is non-existent for non Sydney sides.
 
More worried about this one than I was Footscray.

I get the feeling it will be a lot closer than people anticipate, and that the Port young guns will come out firing with a point to prove.

Breust 300, Moore 100. Big milestones that will help the boys lift though.

Calsher to have another 5 or 6 shots on goal, Wiz to have another 4.
 
Funny thing, hawks beat bulldogs both last meetings before final, but bulldogs lost to port but beat geelong and Sydney

Port beat both geelong and Sydney. Hawks were embarrassed each of those games.

If win on Friday, extra responsibility in that we’ve denied those match ups
 

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Autopsy AFL 2024 Second Semi Final - Port v Hawks Fri Sept 13th 7:40pm EST/7:10pm CST (AO) Teams in OP

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