Autopsy AFL 2024 Second Semi Final - Port v Hawks Fri Sept 13th 7:40pm EST/7:10pm CST (AO) Teams in OP

[Mr Meow]

Pre finals bye has accelerated a trend that started in 2014. Before that it happened once between 2002 and 2013

I wonder which lot of evidence is wisest to use for this game. 2014-2023 or 2002-2013.

If you take Geelong out it's much worse. They played a lot of semi finals from top 4 this century and only lost one. The rest of the top 4 teams as a collective have actually been quite poor semi finalists.

 

[I Dont Care]

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake"

Port players where probably stewing on their failure focusing on their mental deficiencies. That focus and mindset would have shifted now because of that tweet. I expect to see a more focused and determined Port this Friday night.

I've long lost the ability to be optimistic, but what the heck...even a broken clock can be right twice a day...I always tip us to win because habit

 

[Papa G]

Matt Stevic not umpiring so Hawks a man down.

 

[YeoShuey]

UMPIRES:
8 - Brett Rosebury 11 - Curtis Deboy 12 - Andrew Stephens 16 - Brendan Hosking

E.M.: 22 - Nathan Williamson

 

[hawkman]

Matt Stevic not umpiring so Hawks a man down.

No Mollison though so that levels it out

 

[YeoShuey]

No Mollison though so that levels it out

Shocked he isn’t umpiring this week.

I thought he’d be a favourite for the Grand Final. Also shocked Stevic is only emergency in the other match.

Unless they are giving some of their top names a week off like they did last year.

 

[SC_Power]

Whereas if we now look at Port, removing their gun back flankers has made their slingshot game and ball movement completely stagnant. Devoid of class or incision.

.

Houston, Farrell and now Burton.

Hawthorn have injuries too so not result changing.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Has any team come back from 84 points or more in the first round of finals to make a grand final or to win a premiership? Closest I can think of was just less at a 76 point loss to Geelong at the hands of Essendon in 1989. Came back to smash Essendon by 94 points, 2 weeks later.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[Hawkk]

And you’ll possibly win by that much again this week too.

Doesn’t mean the narrative coming into finals wasn’t Vic centric.
It always is.
It always will be.
Ignore or excuse the bad, promote or highlight the good.

And with the AFL’s help along the way, the premiership streak Vic clubs are on over the last 2 decades continues without question.

I don’t disagree with this - and for what it's worth I'm not very confident at all.

It absolutely would not surprised to see Port bounce back - it simply happens far too often to be a coincidence.

I was just saying that any team up by 2 goals with less than 90 seconds should not be losing any game. Same would happen if it was roles reversed and Hawthorn won at the death

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Hawks have landed.

 

[Hawkthorn33]

I wonder which lot of evidence is wisest to use for this game. 2014-2023 or 2002-2013.

If you take Geelong out it's much worse. They played a lot of semi finals from top 4 this century and only lost one. The rest of the top 4 teams as a collective have actually been quite poor semi finalists.

Bloody impressive record by the cats. I loathe you lot because of our rivalry, but I respect you for everything you have consistently achieved.

Proof is in the pudding and there is no denying Geelongs success over the past two decades

 

[Kavliaris69]

Has any team come back from 84 points or more in the first round of finals to make a grand final or to win a premiership? Closest I can think of was just less at a 76 point loss to Geelong at the hands of Essendon in 1989. Came back to smash Essendon by 94 points, 2 weeks later.

I remember those games. Cats vs Hawks were destined to play the best GF of all time.
On another note I remember in 2014 Swans winning the PF by 70pt and going in favourites to GF and get smashed by 10 goals. Reverse of your question.

 

[hawkman]

Hawks have landed.

Which pub should Ginnivan go to tonight?

 

[QuietB]

Which pub should Ginnivan go to tonight?

Ramsgate obviously

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Which pub should Ginnivan go to tonight?

Alberton.

 

[Giant Pete]

Hawks have confidence and momentum. Port have neither.
Port do have the underdog tag which Hinkley so desires.

 

[SC_Power]

I don’t disagree with this - and for what it's worth I'm not very confident at all.

It absolutely would not surprised to see Port bounce back - it simply happens far too often to be a coincidence.

I was just saying that any team up by 2 goals with less than 90 seconds should not be losing any game. Same would happen if it was roles reversed and Hawthorn won at the death

FWIW, you should have a look at our record in close games last couple of years.
This year, 2 goals or less, 6-1 record.
Last year, 6-2
2021, we went 5-0
2022 the anomaly, 2-7, and surprise surprise we missed finals.

Now if only we knew how to tough out finals matches….

 

[Hawkstat]

I keep seeing a stat and hearing a stat going around about last 11 teams to have lost qualifying final by 50+ have gone on to win following week. They fail to mention that only 1 of those 11 teams that lost (Brisbane 2020) were the home team playing an interstate team. In other words Port are in rarified position of losing a home qualifying final by 50+ points against an interstate team. That should be the headline and not history is on Ports side

 

[GoldbergsGold]

What about finals?

It takes a special club to lose a home final by 14 goals. Hawthorn for example, in 100 seasons has never managed that amazing feat. For a club to that after just 28 years in the premier competition is elite

More power to the SA media drivel too

But Hawthorn didn't even have 1 premiership for their first 36 seasons, didn't make finals for 33 seasons and were 1 goal short of a 14 goal loss by losing by 13 goals in the 1985 grand final.

 

[hawkman]

So talls v smalls

Adelaide tried to load up the forward line with talls 6 weeks ago and it failed miserably

 

[Wosh]

Teams are up

 

[Vindicater]

How Port think picking Dixon is a good idea is beyond me.

Sicily and Scrimshaw are going to have a ****ing field day.

 

[afl2004]

How Port think picking Dixon is a good idea is beyond me.

Sicily and Scrimshaw are going to have a ****ing field day.

Ken hinkley fan boy and bff with chad cornes who's our forward coach

 

[Delisted]

Charlie playin