Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2022 - Tsatas, Hayes, Davey x2, Munkara & Montgomerie

[eDPS]

Quick links: Player Contract Status | Trade & Free Agency 2022 | JHA Father/Son and NGA | Adrian Dodoro

Spoiler: LIVE DRAFT ORDER (2022 Draft Order)

Spoiler: FUTURE PICK TRACKER (2023 Draft Order)

Spoiler: Value to match

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[Lads2023]

Bring in Phillippoussis

 

[citizen-erased]

Bring in Phillippoussis

Phillipou/tsatas hybrid?

 

[Duster]

Phillipou/tsatas hybrid?

Only gets paid in Lamborghinis that reek of unfulfilled potential and reality TV personalities.

 

[Wahooti Fandango]

Us when the Hawks swoop on Munkara with their third round pick.

 

[ghostdog]

Tsatas said in an interview yesterday that he and Sheezel are good mates. North might be tempted to do a Gold Coast and pick both of them hoping that it makes it less likely that either would want to leave, which would mean Essendon have the opportunity of drafting Wardlaw.

Yeah I saw that too. It makes sense. I think Brisbane also chose to do that? ...can't recall who with though.

 

[eth-dog]

Yeah I saw that too. It makes sense. I think Brisbane also chose to do that? ...can't recall who with though.

McCluggage and Berry

 

[Howard Moon]

What's the take away here?

 

[Old Campaigner]

View attachment 1544830

What's the take away here?

I think you need to break it down further into the stage of development of each club's list, or maybe median age/games played before you can draw too many conclusions. Otherwise you're comparing Geelong's best 22 with Norf's which doesn't seem particularly meaningful.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

View attachment 1544830

What's the take away here?

That Hawthorn are shit

 

[Howard Moon]

That Hawthorn are s**t

Correct.

 

[Andronicus]

Wardlaw is a bombers supporter - Dodoro could be working this angle hard.

Huge question marks over his decision making.

Do not want.

 

[ghostdog]

Huge question marks over his decision making.

Do not want.

I had te reread that. Well played!

 

[naraku]

Based on nothing but my gut feeling, we're picking either Wardlaw, Humphrey or Phillipou. Either of those 3 are welcome, but I really like what I've read about MP.

 

[Lore]

rtView attachment 1544830

What's the take away here?

I think it's actually more interesting to look at if you sort them by something other than the alphabet.

Sorted by number of top 10 picks (and then number of 11-30s):

• GC/GWS in a similar list situation for relatively obvious reasons: Expansion pick recycling is still having an effect.
• Dogs and North have almost the same composition.
• Dogs, North & Essendon have a lot of top 10 picks given they're not expansion clubs:
  • Being shit for a good part of the last 15 years.
  • Good players leaving and you get top 10 picks back.
  • Matching a bid for an NGA kid at pick 1 when you should otherwise have had pick 11.
• West Coast, St Kilda and Hawthorn are in a spot of trouble unless they're about to contend.

In ladder order:

• Sydney has drafted more of its 22 than any other club – you don't have to trade to be successful.
• Cats, Hawks, Saints and West Coast have similar list composition/strategy, but opposite results.
• Dogs and North also have similar composition, but opposite results.

Then if we put them in order of most trade/fa:

• Carlton, Brisbane, Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, Port and Geelong are 'destination clubs' for best 22 players.
  • This includes spuds* for peanuts
• Destination clubs are mostly at the top of the ladder/recently successful.
• Essendon overachieves as a destination club by being a tease more often than not. Maybe Carlton too.

(*actually best 22 roleplayers but I just wanted to say that)

And in order of state: NSW, Qld, SA, WA, Vic:

• Interstate clubs are rarely a top destination for trade/fa especially when they're not recently successful.
  • Interstate median (6), mode (6), average (6.5)
  • Victorian median (9), mode (9), average (8.7)
• Interstate teams don't have as many top 10 picks either.
  • Vicbias, due to a couple of high profile want away kids that go back to Victoria, causing a retention issue (should get a top 10 pick back though).
  • Vicbias in reverse, Vic kids are overexposed and there's more competition for them, so they go higher, while WA/SA get more value with local kids mid-draft and don't need to trade up as much for the same level of talent.

Further observations:

• Retirees are missing, but there's no draftees yet:
  • i.e. Selwood isn't included in Geelong's breakdown (he was pick 7), but neither is whoever we get at pick 4.
• Includes older f/s taken with a third rounder regardless of talent
  • e.g. Tom Hawkins was the best KPF in his draft and counts as pick 41
• I'd rather know where a traded player was originally drafted, or the pick they were traded for
  • e.g. Jaidyn Stephenson ≠ Tim Taranto

 

[TheGrizz]

I think it's actually more interesting to look at if you sort them by something other than the alphabet.

Sorted by number of top 10 picks (and then number of 11-30s):
View attachment 1545231

• GC/GWS in a similar list situation for relatively obvious reasons: Expansion pick recycling is still having an effect.
• Dogs and North have almost the same composition.
• Dogs, North & Essendon have a lot of top 10 picks given they're not expansion clubs:
  • Being s**t for a good part of the last 15 years.
  • Good players leaving and you get top 10 picks back.
  • Matching a bid for an NGA kid at pick 1 when you should otherwise have had pick 11.
• West Coast, St Kilda and Hawthorn are in a spot of trouble unless they're about to contend.

In ladder order:

View attachment 1544847

• Sydney has drafted more of its 22 than any other club – you don't have to trade to be successful.
• Cats, Hawks, Saints and West Coast have similar list composition/strategy, but opposite results.
• Dogs and North also have similar composition, but opposite results.

Then if we put them in order of most trade/fa:
View attachment 1545217

• Carlton, Brisbane, Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, Port and Geelong are 'destination clubs' for best 22 players.
  • This includes spuds* for peanuts
• Destination clubs are mostly at the top of the ladder/recently successful.
• Essendon overachieves as a destination club by being a tease more often than not. Maybe Carlton too.

(*actually best 22 roleplayers but I just wanted to say that)

And in order of state: NSW, Qld, SA, WA, Vic:
View attachment 1544866

• Interstate clubs are rarely a top destination for trade/fa especially when they're not recently successful.
  • Interstate median (6), mode (6), average (6.5)
  • Victorian median (9), mode (9), average (8.7)
• Interstate teams don't have as many top 10 picks either.
  • Vicbias, due to a couple of high profile want away kids that go back to Victoria, causing a retention issue (should get a top 10 pick back though).
  • Vicbias in reverse, Vic kids are overexposed and there's more competition for them, so they go higher, while WA/SA get more value with local kids mid-draft and don't need to trade up as much for the same level of talent.

Further observations:

• Retirees are missing, but there's no draftees yet:
  • i.e. Selwood isn't included in Geelong's breakdown (he was pick 7), but neither is whoever we get at pick 4.
• Includes older f/s taken with a third rounder regardless of talent
  • e.g. Tom Hawkins was the best KPF in his draft and counts as pick 41
• I'd rather know where a traded player was originally drafted, or the pick they were traded for
  • e.g. Jaidyn Stephenson ≠ Tim Taranto

What it tells me is that clubs that nail their picks 30+ are close to contention (look at Melbourne, Sydney and Geelong). Brisbane have made up for that with handy getting value out of trades and FA.

Their top liners are likely all high end picks or trade ins, but their depth comes from hitting on late selections. We are woeful in that regard.

 

[Lore]

What it tells me is that clubs that nail their picks 30+ are close to contention (look at Melbourne, Sydney and Geelong). Brisbane have made up for that with handy getting value out of trades and FA.

Their top liners are likely all high end picks or trade ins, but their depth comes from hitting on late selections. We are woeful in that regard.

I think that's true, but I don't know how you prove it with this data set. Brisbane & Richmond are both bottom six for late picks in their 22, Collingwood, Melbourne and Bulldogs are all very mid-tier in that respect, and Sydney, Fremantle and Geelong are top six. And Geelong is just generally a weird outlier on most kinds of list analysis anyway.

Here it is if you sort it by most grey+yellow;



And fwiw the raw data if you wanted to play with it:

Spoiler: data

	Draft 1-10	Draft 11-30	Draft 31+	Rookie/Other	Trade	Free Agent
Adelaide	3	7	3	5	3	1
Brisbane	3	6	2	2	7	2
Carlton	3	4	2	3	8	2
Collingwood	4	3	3	4	7	1
Essendon	5	6	1	3	6	1
Fremantle	4	3	9	1	5	0
Geelong	0	5	6	4	5	2
Gold Coast	7	4	3	3	3	2
GWS	7	6	2	3	3	1
Hawthorn	1	2	7	6	5	1
Melbourne	4	4	6	1	7	0
North Melbourne	6	4	5	1	5	1
Port Adelaide	3	9	3	0	6	1
Richmond	4	6	3	3	5	1
St Kilda	2	4	5	5	4	2
Sydney	4	3	7	5	2	1
West Coast	2	8	7	1	3	1
Western Bulldogs	6	4	6	1	4	1

I think players that are drafted later have a different sort of attitude to the ones that go early as well, and that probably makes more of a difference than what you can see on a stat sheet.

Probably more likely to be kids that had to fight to get drafted at all, kids that don't live in the city, couldn't go to the private schools, late bloomers out of the state leagues, code-switchers, etc.

And because of their lower draft range, you're also not beholden to playing them in the best 22 if they're not actually doing what's asked of them. Like you're not gonna have front page news for dropping the guy who was pick 43.

If you have to work your butt off to even get drafted, and have to work your butt off to stay on a list, and to get in the 22, and to get picked every week after that, you'd probably be more willing to take lower salary, be more loyal to the club that took a punt on you, be more likely to play team-first football or you'd be dropped without setting off a media storm...

Probably one of the main issues GWS/GC have is the lack of those sorts of players, and we have fewer.

 

[BuffDog]

Could we still be bold and trade out of next years draft to bring in Tsatsas and Phillipou? Gold Coast or Carlton might bite for our F1 + 22 + maybe a future 2nd or 3rd.

Yes next year is meant to be a super draft but with a bottom 6 fixture I can’t see us finishing below Hawthorn, North, West Coast and potentially GWS so we’re not getting the prodigal Harley Reid. Plus IF Parish does leave then we get back into the 1st round anyway.

Could allow us to build a midfield of

Hobbs
Caldwell
Perkins
Tsatsas
Phillipou
Martin
Davey Jr
Merrett/Parish/McGrath

Which is a decent mix of height and styles.

But any trading we do will likely be on draft night and dependent on who North end up taking.

 

[Mikevk123]

Could we still be bold and trade out of next years draft to bring in Tsatsas and Phillipou? Gold Coast or Carlton might bite for our F1 + 22 + maybe a future 2nd or 3rd.

Yes next year is meant to be a super draft but with a bottom 6 fixture I can’t see us finishing below Hawthorn, North, West Coast and potentially GWS so we’re not getting the prodigal Harley Reid. Plus IF Parish does leave then we get back into the 1st round anyway.

Could allow us to build a midfield of

Hobbs
Caldwell
Perkins
Tsatsas
Phillipou
Martin
Davey Jr
Merrett/Parish/McGrath

Which is a decent mix of height and styles.

But any trading we do will likely be on draft night and dependent on who North end up taking.

I wouldn’t personally. If we aren’t keen on Tsatsas they need to shift down a few spots and gain future picks.

Merrett to the wing. McGrath to defence, and Parish moved on at the end of the season. Give more minutes to Hobbs and Caldwell who are decent mids but won’t be elite. Add some stoppages for Archie to. We need new recruiters.

 

[Skipper_]

Munkara on instagram live confirmed he is very keen to get to Essendon.

 

[Yoda_]

Yoda_ 's draft dream

Take Sheezel

get in before a Davey bid and take Brayden George or Mitch Szybkowski

Take Alwyn Davey

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

Jnr

left over points totals a 4th round selection Adam D'Alioa


Rookie Jayden

Cat - B Munkara


done..

3 x creative half forward progressive players
2 x midfielders
1 x small forward

 

[ant555]

Yoda_ 's draft dream

Take Sheezel

get in before a Davey bid and take Brayden George or Mitch Szybkowski

Take Alwyn Davey Jnr

left over points totals a 4th round selection Adam D'Alioa


Rookie Jayden

Cat - B Munkara


done..

3 x creative half forward progressive players
2 x midfielders
1 x small forward

North is going to kill your draft dream. Sheezal will go at 3.
Mitch Szybkowski is interesting . He is a big unit but tends to get a lot of possessions from handball receives or running into space rather than inside work. He has a decent tank and good footy IQ . What he seems to do is read the game really well and find space to work in. Skills good enough and can tackle.

 

[Yoda_]

North is going to kill your draft dream. Sheezal will go at 3.
Mitch Szybkowski is interesting . He is a big unit but tends to get a lot of possessions from handball receives or running into space rather than inside work. He has a decent tank and good footy IQ . What he seems to do is read the game really well and find space to work in. Skills good enough and can tackle.

Sheezel is the pipe dream, hope North do us a favour and take Wardlaw and Tsatas,

Szybkowski screams Daniel Cross and I am perfectly fine with that if it means we have a 200 game player on our hands.

 

[eth-dog]

Sheezel is the pipe dream, hope North do us a favour and take Wardlaw and Tsatas,

Szybkowski screams Daniel Cross and I am perfectly fine with that if it means we have a 200 game player on our hands.

If Sheezel isn't taken by North they're certifiable. He's the guy they should have taken if they kept pick 1.

 

[Mikevk123]

My draft wish

Blues- 34(BL)
Dons- 35(BL) and F2(Carl)
Lions- 22(Ess)

St Kilda- 4, 72 and F4Syd
Dons- 9, 32 and F2

Tigers- 62 and 68
Dons- 53

9, 32, 35, 53, 54

Future Picks
F1(Ess), F2(Ess), F2(Stk), F2(Carl), F3(Ess)


9- Mattaes Phillpou
20- Alwyn Davey

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

Matched
35- Charlie Clarke
42- Anthony Munkara Matched
54- Jaden Davey

1- Big bodied midfielder- Phillpou
1- Forward/Winger- Alwyn Davey

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

2- Small Forwards- Charlie Clarke and Jaden Davey
1- Medium size forward- Munkara

 

[fairbump_playon]

Bring in Phillippoussis

A large section of our list could use a massive serve