Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[bombreys]

For me it comes when you have a deep balanced list and better players pushing for those spots.

We’re getting close to that but aren’t quite there yet.

As disappointing as some of these players are they are still better then most non afl listed VFL players

Interesting - what or who makes you think we are getting close to that?

I'd say we have little depth outside of our mids. And even then it's quite same-y (not a lot of speed and no big bodies).

Our ruck depth I would say is fine. I'd probably have rather Goldy become a ruck coach and sign a Jack Hayes type. But that's nitpicking.

Our forward and defensive depth I would rate as poor/barely existent.

 

[bombreys]

I agree that there has been delays, but this is the cost of not taking decisive action earlier and not seeing how the young players we do have go at the senior level in their preferred position.
It's the cost of not playing guys, of playing them out of position, injuries and senior players who were known clogging up minutes and opportunity.

so now, in a year where we had sweet FA capital it lines up that a player will eat a bid, the best play we have is to push assets to the future, still collect our first round talent, commit to properly exploring the list and then being absolutely decisive with what we need, who we don't etc.

Pushing capital into this year is going to be incredibly costly and we simply don't have the spots to actually view the list whilst still adding the young talent.
When I say spots I mean opportunity and role.

We don't know our forward setup, we don't know if Reid, cox or Perkins are good enough, we don't know about Tsatas, we don't know our forward setup, we don't even know our best midfield mix (fans do, the club don't). We don't know our ruck setup.

Unfortunately the cost of being indecisive and too conservative leads to situations like this where this is exactly the time to actually be conservative, the risk being that impatience wins out and pushes you further back by burning through capital trying to chase a dream premium draft hand your not entitled to, and have no real idea what you need.

I agree with most of this - but we still have the same coach & director at the helm that made those initial decisions. It's a pretty damn big stuff up.

On top of that, they're both saying they want to improve next year.

Rosa I feel for. If Scott and Barham have come to the realisation the list is no good 2 years later than everyone with half a brain, that should be on them. And, they're both still saying they want to improve next year. If we bottom out next year, I would hope both of their positions are under review.

 

[bombreys]

It comes to an end next year as one way or another these guys who are supposed to be the future will have progressed or not done anything more. It will spell the end of rebuild 2020 if they do not come on.

Do you not just get the feeling that at the end of next year, if they don't come on, they'll just kick the can down the road again and give them another 12 months?

These guys from the 2020 'rebuild' will be 23 before any of them play another AFL game. We're not talking about a bunch of teenagers here.

 

[Zach Package]

Do you not just get the feeling that at the end of next year, if they don't come on, they'll just kick the can down the road again and give them another 12 months?

These guys from the 2020 'rebuild' will be 23 before any of them play another AFL game. We're not talking about a bunch of teenagers here.

Developmentally I suspect they are given they've had no underage footy and we may have put the quantity of time into them but the jury is out on the quality of that time.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Would people be up for trading Melb's F1 for Richmond's 11? (With possibly a F3 going their way as well).

Having that many picks from 1 - 24 for Richmond looks good on paper but statistically it's probably better to spread it out over multiple years than just one (Gold Coast had so many in one year and half were a bust). It'd be a win-win.

 

[Vindicater]

Would people be up for trading Melb's F1 for Richmond's 11? (With possibly a F3 going their way as well).

Having that many picks from 1 - 24 for Richmond looks good on paper but statistically it's probably better to spread it out over multiple years than just one (Gold Coast had so many in one year and half were a bust). It'd be a win-win.

Yes. Even better if a Kako bid has not come by that point.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Yes. Even better if a Kako bid has not come by that point.

I've asked their board and they'd be against it. They're saying they'd be more happy with trading a pick in the 20's for a F1 + F3.

Nah. The value at 11 is potentially 5 in other years.

We will move picks but unless we get overs for 11 it’ll be our picks in the 20s for F1s.

Not a chance in hell.

 

[ant555]

Do you not just get the feeling that at the end of next year, if they don't come on, they'll just kick the can down the road again and give them another 12 months?

These guys from the 2020 'rebuild' will be 23 before any of them play another AFL game. We're not talking about a bunch of teenagers here.

I may be wrong but I feel that Vozzo is no longer drinking the Essendon cool aid and this years fade out will end up being a turning point. Obviously we have been unlucky with Reid. We also lost most of Cox's second year to injury so it has taken a year longer on that front. It seems that Perkins will get a shot at Stringers spot but I do not think they will just sign them again if they are going no good.

 

[Yoda_]

I may be wrong but I feel that Vozzo is no longer drinking the Essendon cool aid and this years fade out will end up being a turning point. Obviously we have been unlucky with Reid. We also lost most of Cox's second year to injury so it has taken a year longer on that front. It seems that Perkins will get a shot at Stringers spot but I do not think they will just sign them again if they are going no good.

agreed, even Tsatas is essentially a second year player due to injury holding him back in year 1.

Its not all doom and gloom but geez the jungle drums will be beating if these kids dont stay on the park and show something (improvement, consistency, fitness) next year

 

[ant555]

I agree with most of this - but we still have the same coach & director at the helm that made those initial decisions. It's a pretty damn big stuff up.

On top of that, they're both saying they want to improve next year.

Rosa I feel for. If Scott and Barham have come to the realisation the list is no good 2 years later than everyone with half a brain, that should be on them. And, they're both still saying they want to improve next year. If we bottom out next year, I would hope both of their positions are under review.

I posted about this in the Brad Scott thread but the simple fact is the club chased Scott and got him interested but there was not plan list wise. It was not like hiring someone who had done a deep dive into the list. So Scott is pretty much limited in what he can do in the first year anyway.
Hired too late to have any real say in the draft. Would not have nailed down a game plan and how players would fit into it. Had no idea what level the football program was at. So you waste a season looking at all of it.

Vozzo was second choice as CEO and was in the same boat as Scott. No real solid plan due to the circumstances. He was hired as a football CEO so he also has to sit back and watch a year unfold.

My mail is both where influenced by "Essendon" people at board level and media level during this period as the talk was the list is okay . We just need an experienced coach to take it to the next level. Plenty of non Essendon media also calling us under performers and the list was better than where we finished.

So we play 2023. Scott / Vozzo / McPherson get a good look. The realize the program has some serious issues and the players are well short of the preparation standard they need to be at. New pre season program. Players look fitter than ever. Play improved footy for a long part of the season and then melt under pressure.
Now they are looking at the reality that is Essendon.

To say two years too late is wrong. You can not expect them to not be the number 1 choice and have a detailed plan from day 1 when Essendon was not even on the radar for them.
Of course they are saying we need to improve next year. Find me a club in history that has come out before a season and said we are just going to lose for draft pick . We do need to improve next year. The guys who are part of the 2020 draft have to improve. Several others have to improve. That is not shock.
If we bottom out it will not be totally on Scott or Barham for that matter. The reason will be the continual mistake made every year leading into now.
The messaging from the start under Scott has been this is not a short term fix. Seems a lot of people gloss over that.
There are also a lot of Scott comments in the media about the whole process taking a while to fix.

 

[ant555]

agreed, even Tsatas is essentially a second year player due to injury holding him back in year 1.

Its not all doom and gloom but geez the jungle drums will be beating if these kids dont stay on the park and show something (improvement, consistency, fitness) next year

People can beat as many drums as they want but it will be what it is. They will have to start again. Maybe if they listened to Dan Richardson and worked out that Adrian was not god and the list was not really where it needed to be then we would be further advanced. But no we let that relationship fall apart and moved Richardson on. Then we moved Mahoney on. We get what the board has given us. At least now we have a CEO who has finally removed him all together and we have a new guy.
Scott could be a casualty but he was really hired to do something with the football program first.

 

[Foxx]

Would people be up for trading Melb's F1 for Richmond's 11? (With possibly a F3 going their way as well).

Having that many picks from 1 - 24 for Richmond looks good on paper but statistically it's probably better to spread it out over multiple years than just one (Gold Coast had so many in one year and half were a bust). It'd be a win-win.

This has been proposed several times already. So seems popular.

 

[Duckworth]

Can someone please post what Essendon’s target is according to the HS. Thanks.

 

[doug85]

Can someone please post what Essendon’s target is according to the HS. Thanks.

Is this the article?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

If Lalor's the thumbnail, then the Essendon target is simply Kako.

 

[doug85]

If Lalor's the thumbnail, then the Essendon target is simply Kako.

If it’s the article I posted, then yes the target is just Kako.

****ing click bait

 

[Old Campaigner]

agreed, even Tsatas is essentially a second year player due to injury holding him back in year 1.

Its not all doom and gloom but geez the jungle drums will be beating if these kids dont stay on the park and show something (improvement, consistency, fitness) next year

What will beating the drums achieve?

We would be far far better served giving them space to do what they’ve been hired to do instead of trying to chase short term wins to keep the nuffies sated

 

[Yoda_]

What will beating the drums achieve?

We would be far far better served giving them space to do what they’ve been hired to do instead of trying to chase short term wins to keep the nuffies sated

if Reid doesn't stay on the park and plays 4 games in 2025, that would be 13 out of a possible 88 games. Would you accept that as passable? If Tsatas does not come on and become an AFL regular, does the question marks no start? if Cox doesn't bed down and start contributing weekly does that not beg the question, is he pickable each week?

 

[ant555]

if Reid doesn't stay on the park and plays 4 games in 2025, that would be 13 out of a possible 88 games. Would you accept that as passable? If Tsatas does not come on and become an AFL regular, does the question marks no start? if Cox doesn't bed down and start contributing weekly does that not beg the question, is he pickable each week?

And ? Your point is what ? How does any of this change the current positions of those now in control ?

A three-year plan: Why the Bombers didn’t hunt anyone this trade period​

By Jake Niall​

October 18, 2024 — 6.47pm

Essendon didn’t chase Dan Houston, when they held a better draft hand than Collingwood and had comfortably enough draft and salary cap capital to accommodate the All-Australian defender.

The Dons weren’t in the market for Clayton Oliver, whose for sale sign was quickly removed once he met with the Cats on a rustic date. They didn’t get into a bidding war with Hawthorn for either Josh Battle or Tom Barrass, and didn’t bite at Caleb Daniel or Jack Macrae when they were on the exit ramp from the Bulldogs.

They never made any play for Bailey Smith, who theoretically fitted their need for a midfielder with power and speed. Brad Scott, presumably, would have known his twin brother’s team was further down the road, in every sense.

Bailey Smith got his wish with a move to Geelong.

The only time the Bombers were mentioned in trade dispatches was in relation to the challenge of offloading Jake Stringer to the beleaguered Giants, and in a pick-swap trade with Melbourne that protected their draft position from any bid on academy recruit Isaac Kako.

No player arrived at the club in a trade, compared to last year when the Dons imported four – three of them free agents to fill specific holes – without any draft cost.

Essendon’s reticence to chase players wasn’t a sudden decision the club made in late September or October.

Essendon CEO Craig Vozzo has plenty of work to do alongside Brad Scott and Matt Rosa.CREDIT: JUSTIN MCMANUS

It was the beginning of a three-year strategy.

The club’s new list manager Matt Rosa, in concert with chief executive Craig Vozzo, has authored a three-year plan that has been presented to Essendon’s board.

As year one of that three-year plan, this post-season has clearly emphasised the view of Rosa, Scott and Vozzo that the playing list is in need of A-grade talent and that star quality is best found in the national draft.

Hence, the Bombers haven’t chased or spent big on seasoned recruits, saving their draft capital for youth – starting with Kako, who will be acquired with the help of Melbourne’s secondary picks (and future first-round) that were exchanged for Essendon’s pick No 9.
By year three of the Rosa plan, the Bombers will be more willing to splurge on a prized recruit, hoping that, by that stage, they will have assembled more elite talent – and invested games in those kids.

It is a strategy that reeks of realism and of recognition that – Zach Merrett excepted – they don’t have the same level of top-shelf players as Carlton, the Brisbane Lions or Sydney. It is a plan that was easier to execute under Rosa, as the new list boss, than on the watch of his more extroverted and visible predecessor Adrian Dodoro, who has left the club after nearly three decades at the helm of recruiting/list management.

The Bombers will not say it, but the fact that they are willing to go to the draft, after two years under Scott, is also a recognition that the strategy of 2017-19 failed.

In those three years, the Dons imported Adam Saad, Devon Smith, Stringer (all 2017) and Dylan Shiel (costing 2018 and 2019 first-round choices). This doesn’t mean the strategy – trading for mature players to push for the summit – was misguided, only that it foundered on execution.
Only two players remain from those recruited by Essendon over 2017-19, and they had no pick higher than 30 in that period.

Under the plan, they will take three or four players in the upcoming national draft.

Essendon’s 2017-19 plan unravelled in the pandemic, especially in 2020 when Saad, Joe Daniher and Conor McKenna walked, leaving demographic and positional holes. The three top-10 draft picks garnered from that exodus, thus far, have brought disappointing returns.

Talls Nik Cox and Zach Reid having been unable to establish themselves, partly due to injury, while Archie Perkins remains an unfulfilled talent.

Nate Caddy and Brad Scott at Essendon training.CREDIT: AFL PHOTOS

The 2020 draft was afflicted by COVID, and the clubs who dived deep into that pool – Collingwood was another – have had largely underwhelming yields.
It’s too soon to render judgments on first-round midfielders Ben Hobbs (2021) and Elijah Tsatas (2022), except to say that they have to improve significantly and that, as inside mids, they arguably fill similar roles.

Nate Caddy has the mark of class and athleticism and should more than cover for the loss of Stringer over the next few years.

That the three-year plan has been signed off on and has entered phase one bespeaks the fact that the stoic Essendon faithful will have their patience further tested in 2025. They have endured more than just about any other club’s fan base over two decades, including St Kilda’s.

At least there’s a plan. That Vozzo and Scott aren’t spruiking it is a measure of another recognition within Tullamarine – that the fans are tired of hearing about what will happen. They just want to see it.



There is clearly a different direction being taken again but you can beat as many drums as you want.

 

[Yoda_]

And ? Your point is what ? How does any of this change the current positions of those now in control ?

My point was that questions would come harder than ever if Reid does not stay on the park, if Tsatas doesn't come on, if Hobbs doesn't bed down a best 22 role. Nothing to do with anything else.

 

[ant555]

My point was that questions would come harder than ever if Reid does not stay on the park, if Tsatas doesn't come on, if Hobbs doesn't bed down a best 22 role. Nothing to do with anything else.

Is it a surprise ? club has sucked under the old regime. Of course there will be some lingering effects. Club can just say that is why Rosa is now in control.

 

[Yoda_]

Is it a surprise ? club has sucked under the old regime. Of course there will be some lingering effects. Club can just say that is why Rosa is now in control.

what did you make of the trade period out od curiosity ?

 

[ant555]

what did you make of the trade period out od curiosity ?

Given I predicted 4 months ago that we would make limited moves it went about how I expected it to.

Not unhappy with the pick trade. Yes we could have held until draft night and done some wheeling and dealing and maybe we could have been able to use pick 9 but we took a low risk option that gave us more choice in what we could do. Despite everyone saying we could have got the picks on draft night I doubt we are getting that haul and it probably costs us more future picks to get the back end picks needed to stay out of deficit . Now we have options.
Yes it does not look like 2 picks in the top 15 (Kako and 9) but next year is next year and we will most likely move out 28 and 31 if we can.

As far as player trades go we kicked a few tyres but nothing big came up. Stringer had baggage so a pick that ends up being early third round is close to his value IMO.

Did not bring in any scraps from other clubs.

Tried moving on some guys but lack of interest saw only Stringer go.

Weideman , Hind , Heppell , Stringer , Kelly out so that is 5 more older players gone.

Now we move to 2025 where we simply have to get a look at where Reid , Cox , Perkins , Hobbs , Bryan , Draper , Jones , Tsatas , Davey and Hayes are going to take us.

How would I rate it ? well not much happened so it was a C grade but we where not in a position to make a lot happen.
Not really exciting but that is the hand we had. Various factors have put us in the spot we are in. Fans are not going to like hearing about another rebuild but all the club can do is saddle up with a new group of guys and see what they come up with.