Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[thebigboy]

I can think of 3 reasons.

1. You don’t really need that good of a KPF to win a flag just a big body.

2. We’re trialling Draper in that role and have Viggo developing in the VFL

3. We can always trade for a replacement level or slightly above average KPF when we feel a window is realistically open.

Disagree. Recent history shows that most of the premiership sides an an A grade forward:

2024: Joe Daniher
2022: Tom Hawkins/Jeremy Cameron
2020: Jack Riewoldt/Tom Lynch
2019: Jack Riewoldt/Tom Lynch
2018: Josh Kennedy/Jack Darling
2017: Jack Riewoldt
2015: Jarryd Roughead
2014: Jarryd Roughead
2013: Jarryd Roughead/Buddy

Caddy has shown signs that he could be something, although very unfair on him to compare him to any of the guys listed above after 10 games. Unless we can recapture the form of Wright from 2022 or Caddy develops to the level we all hope, w should be targeting one in the next 1-2 drafts early.

 

[Call Me Cake]

1. You don’t really need that good of a KPF to win a flag just a big body.

Disagree. Game is built on running, i50's and converting more than not. You can maybe get away with it on the very rare occasion if you have a forward fleet who are accurate and defensively sound across the board, but rare.

Does Brisbane get to the GF without Daniher being a freak? Don't think so.

KPF's worth their salt are 100% needed and

Melbourne is a clear example of a team that were heavily disadvantaged because they lacked them.

I remember people were using the Dees as a case study at the time "look!!! Melbourne have no KPF!". I always knew it would be their achilles heel as they worked three times as hard for goals than other teams.

 

[jdstorm]

Disagree. Recent history shows that most of the premiership sides an an A grade forward:

2024: Joe Daniher
2022: Tom Hawkins/Jeremy Cameron
2020: Jack Riewoldt/Tom Lynch
2019: Jack Riewoldt/Tom Lynch
2018: Josh Kennedy/Jack Darling
2017: Jack Riewoldt
2015: Jarryd Roughead
2014: Jarryd Roughead
2013: Jarryd Roughead/Buddy

Caddy has shown signs that he could be something, although very unfair on him to compare him to any of the guys listed above after 10 games. Unless we can recapture the form of Wright from 2022 or Caddy develops to the level we all hope, w should be targeting one in the next 1-2 drafts early.

Langford is an AA level forward when healthy. Is he not the A grade no1 target to build a forward line around? He’s probably got 10 years left if all goes well. Him + Caddy + Kako (both FRP forwards) is a fair bit of talent.

I agree that in the next 2-3 years we will be investing a high pick in a KPF just not sold it has to be now until we find out what we have.

Neither Brisbane, Geelong or Richmond drafted the combo they had as they traded in Daniher/Jezza/Danger/Lynch. No reason we can’t trade for a KPF when we hit the window.

Disagree. Game is built on running, i50's and converting more than not. You can maybe get away with it on the very rare occasion if you have a forward fleet who are accurate and defensively sound across the board, but rare.

Does Brisbane get to the GF without Daniher being a freak? Don't think so.

KPF's worth their salt are 100% needed and

Melbourne is a clear example of a team that were heavily disadvantaged because they lacked them.

I remember people were using the Dees as a case study at the time "look!!! Melbourne have no KPF!". I always knew it would be their achilles heel as they worked three times as hard for goals than other teams.

I think it’s true that good KPFs make things easier. I also think it’s true that real premiership teams need >2 AA level forwards.

The question I’m putting out there is. Do these players have to be large talls and How good do these players have to be vs a league average KPP ie if Brisbane had Peter Wright or Mason Cox or ??? Instead of Danniher is that enough to still win the flag. Or can teams win As long as you have a Bobby Hill or Charlie Cameron or Tyson Stengle and another good option.

Melbourne’s issues stem closer to not having enough options in the forward line. Beyond Picket and Frisch and having 2 good forwards one of whom will be solo with the other on the bench >20% of the game. And as we’ve seen it’s really hard to get goals when you only have 1 target for the defence to worry about

 

[thebigboy]

Langford is an AA level forward when healthy. Is he not the A grade no1 target to build a forward line around? He’s probably got 10 years left if all goes well. Him + Caddy + Kako (both FRP forwards) is a fair bit of talent.

I agree that in the next 2-3 years we will be investing a high pick in a KPF just not sold it has to be now until we find out what we have.

Neither Brisbane, Geelong or Richmond drafted the combo they had as they traded in Daniher/Jezza/Danger/Lynch. No reason we can’t trade for a KPF when we hit the window.

No he's not IMO. He's a very good player, but not an A-Grader and not someone who you can build a forward line around. He's the perfect 3rd forward in a contender, but if he has to play as more than that, you have a weakness in your forward line - see the last 2 years for us as the perfect example. Plus he's 28 in December so 10 years is a stretch.

The book is out on what we have - Caddy & Kako; we'll see what they become, Wright who is on relatively big money and finished the season in the VFL, Langford who's done well, but isn't a true Key Forward and a bunch of small forwards who aren't keeping opposition coaches up a night to put it politely.

The problem with relying on free agency and trade for a Key Forward is that a) the cost is usually massive - e.g. Cameron 3 1st round picks & b) the demand usually far out weighs the supply.

 

[boncer34]

Langford is an AA level forward when healthy. Is he not the A grade no1 target to build a forward line around? He’s probably got 10 years left if all goes well. Him + Caddy + Kako (both FRP forwards) is a fair bit of talent.

I agree that in the next 2-3 years we will be investing a high pick in a KPF just not sold it has to be now until we find out what we have.

Neither Brisbane, Geelong or Richmond drafted the combo they had as they traded in Daniher/Jezza/Danger/Lynch. No reason we can’t trade for a KPF when we hit the window.



I think it’s true that good KPFs make things easier. I also think it’s true that real premiership teams need >2 AA level forwards.

The question I’m putting out there is. Do these players have to be large talls and How good do these players have to be vs a league average KPP ie if Brisbane had Peter Wright or Mason Cox or ??? Instead of Danniher is that enough to still win the flag. Or can teams win As long as you have a Bobby Hill or Charlie Cameron or Tyson Stengle and another good option.

Melbourne’s issues stem closer to not having enough options in the forward line. Beyond Picket and Frisch and having 2 good forwards one of whom will be solo with the other on the bench >20% of the game. And as we’ve seen it’s really hard to get goals when you only have 1 target for the defence to worry about

They'd have to go very very well.

 

[jdstorm]

No he's not IMO. He's a very good player, but not an A-Grader and not someone who you can build a forward line around. He's the perfect 3rd forward in a contender, but if he has to play as more than that, you have a weakness in your forward line - see the last 2 years for us as the perfect example. Plus he's 28 in December so 10 years is a stretch.

The book is out on what we have - Caddy & Kako; we'll see what they become, Wright who is on relatively big money and finished the season in the VFL, Langford who's done well, but isn't a true Key Forward and a bunch of small forwards who aren't keeping opposition coaches up a night to put it politely.

The problem with relying on free agency and trade for a Key Forward is that a) the cost is usually massive - e.g. Cameron 3 1st round picks & b) the demand usually far out weighs the supply.

Yeah whoops thought he was 26. Say 7-8 years. Guys are better at staying healthy now most modern players probably make it to mid 30s

I think I’m general when putting together a forward line you have 2 competing things you need to balance.

1. What role do they play ie Full Forward, CHF, 3rd tall, Mid/Forward, pressure forward

2. What option are they ie 1st option, 2nd option 3rd option ect.


Where it gets fun is you can have 1st-6th options at every position. And your tall forward combo of who’s your Strong Target vs Mobile target and which one of those chops out at ruck

Ie 1st option FF who Rucks Harry McKay
1st option FF who doesn’t Jesse Hogan/Tex Walker

1st option CHF who rucks, Daniher
1st option CHF who doesn’t Cameron, Curnow

1st option 3rd tall Langford, Stringer, Miocheck,

1st option Mid Forwards Danger, Petracca, JHF

1st option SFs Hill, Watson, Green, Cameron ect

Then you have the 2nd-6th option version of every spot.

In terms of what we currently have. I’d say Langford = 1st option 3rd tall. Caddy = 3rd option CHF. (With a high ceiling) Wright = 2nd/3rd Option CHF/Ruck (bad fit with Draper and Caddy) Draper = 5th option FF/Ruck (and is a good fit with Caddy. Only capable FF on list) Gresham = 4th/5th option SF, Perkins =???? Guelfi = 6th option pressure forward

If you go by options we have a
No1 Langers
No2 none
No3 Caddy
No4 Gresham
No5 Draper
No6 Guelfi/Perk

So if either Caddy or Kako can fill that No2 target role things are looking pretty good with Jake out messing up the balance. Especially with Jones able to be a no 4 option as your CHF3rd tall rotating in off the wing.


As far as free agency and trade goes KPF are expensive but you pay for 2 things certainty and immediacy. You could waste 3 FRP on 3 KPF in 3 years and not get anyone close to Jezza and even if they were they would take 4-5 years to get going

 

[thebigboy]

Yeah whoops thought he was 26. Say 7-8 years. Guys are better at staying healthy now most modern players probably make it to mid 30s

I think I’m general when putting together a forward line you have 2 competing things you need to balance.

1. What role do they play ie Full Forward, CHF, 3rd tall, Mid/Forward, pressure forward

2. What option are they ie 1st option, 2nd option 3rd option ect.


Where it gets fun is you can have 1st-6th options at every position. And your tall forward combo of who’s your Strong Target vs Mobile target and which one of those chops out at ruck

Ie 1st option FF who Rucks Harry McKay
1st option FF who doesn’t Jesse Hogan/Tex Walker

1st option CHF who rucks, Daniher
1st option CHF who doesn’t Cameron, Curnow

1st option 3rd tall Langford, Stringer, Miocheck,

1st option Mid Forwards Danger, Petracca, JHF

1st option SFs Hill, Watson, Green, Cameron ect

Then you have the 2nd-6th option version of every spot.

In terms of what we currently have. I’d say Langford = 1st option 3rd tall. Caddy = 3rd option CHF. (With a high ceiling) Wright = 2nd/3rd Option CHF/Ruck (bad fit with Draper and Caddy) Draper = 5th option FF/Ruck (and is a good fit with Caddy. Only capable FF on list) Gresham = 4th/5th option SF, Perkins =???? Guelfi = 6th option pressure forward

If you go by options we have a
No1 Langers
No2 none
No3 Caddy
No4 Gresham
No5 Draper
No6 Guelfi/Perk

So if either Caddy or Kako can fill that No2 target role things are looking pretty good with Jake out messing up the balance. Especially with Jones able to be a no 4 option as your CHF3rd tall rotating in off the wing.


As far as free agency and trade goes KPF are expensive but you pay for 2 things certainty and immediacy. You could waste 3 FRP on 3 KPF in 3 years and not get anyone close to Jezza and even if they were they would take 4-5 years to get going

There's different ways to set up and structure a forward line, but if we're building a forward line for the next 3-5 years, I'd only back 3 positions to be filled - Caddy, Kako & Langford, and ideally, Langford is the 3rd tall option who can use his athleticism to get up the ground and create mismatches with his marking/athleticism.

I'd rather take my chances at the draft to get a long-term key forward than rely on FA & Trade and run the risk of missing the window because we've not been able to get the player we need.

 

[jdstorm]

There's different ways to set up and structure a forward line, but if we're building a forward line for the next 3-5 years, I'd only back 3 positions to be filled - Caddy, Kako & Langford, and ideally, Langford is the 3rd tall option who can use his athleticism to get up the ground and create mismatches with his marking/athleticism.

I'd rather take my chances at the draft to get a long-term key forward than rely on FA & Trade and run the risk of missing the window because we've not been able to get the player we need.

Fair enough.
I just think we have bigger holes elsewhere and if we invest too much in pipe dream talls then we leave the list with significant holes at other spots.

It’s pretty hard to develop talls if they never get the ball cause the midfield is getting smashed or we can’t reliably move the ball off HB.