Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[Bjchan13]

I think Richmond’s pick 23 and 24 could be for sale to the highest bidder which would no doubt have to include a F1. Maybe GWS and Swans pick 21 and 22. Can’t see GCS trading out their F1s when they have enough points this year and their NGAs next year needing a lot of points.

Obviously you guys will just take the best deal but if there’s no takers before our pick 26 there’s a bit to work with there if you’re looking to get back into the early second round. Having Matty Rosa pulling the strings is helpful too.

It evens out after the GWS picks. I feel like teams will hold onto their F1s from that point onwards

 

[eaglevision]

It evens out after the GWS picks. I feel like teams will hold onto their F1s from that point onwards

Agreed, I see pick 14 (excl. FS/NGA) just before the GWS picks as the last pick of the exceptional talent this year. 15 onwards will be a little less valued. In saying that it only takes one player for one team to like though and you might get a F1 from a top 8 side, but I think it goes to Richmond for 23 and then 24.

 

[King Patty]

I think Suns are the best option after bid on Lombard
we package up 28 + 31 to them for future first.

But they could have better offers for their future first (lower pick this year), especially if we intend on trying to use it to get up the board.

 

[Milanista28]

Trade with the Lions...

40+46+53 (993 points)
for
27 (703 points)

We then have 27+28 to dangle for a future 1st and more Kako points, something like...

27+28 to Geelong for 45+57+F1st

Draft hand 31, 45, 54, 57, 65

???

 

[jdstorm]

What sort of level of the draft were you thinking? Saw a nice trade between our clubs that gets you back into the draft at 26 but is that lower than you’d hoped? Apart from North (which is understandable) and our total stupidity with pick 3 teams are generally valuing their top picks pretty highly this year. Those later picks you’d need to match the bid if you traded 28, 31 out before a bid was matched.

I would say that it will depend on who’s available. Given the depth of the draft it makes theoretical sense to trade back into the mid/late 30s or even 40s for

players who are in that tier given those players are allegedly better then the players you typically find in that spot

However if someone our scouting department loves is available at 26 and the deal is fair then I would say it’s an option for sure

Edit:

My best guess is we will trade out 28 for a Pick in the 40s or 50s + F2, then do the same for pick 31.

2 F2s will be really handy for points matching next year and probably be easy enough to turn into a first.

Meanwhile picks in the 40s/50s will go up in value as the bid matches start to come in. Haven’t done the math on how many picks it might go up but I would expect in the 5-10 spots range.

 

[eaglevision]

Edit:

My best guess is we will trade out 28 for a Pick in the 40s or 50s + F2, then do the same for pick 31.

2 F2s will be really handy for points matching next year and probably be easy enough to turn into a first.

Meanwhile picks in the 40s/50s will go up in value as the bid matches start to come in. Haven’t done the math on how many picks it might go up but I would expect in the 5-10 spots range.

If that’s the case why wouldn’t you trade with us? You’ll get 26 back after a bid, 2 x F2s and a F3?

 

[King Patty]

40+46+53 (993 points)
for
27 (703 points)

Lions cant use the points as limited number of list spots.

hence the following trade already been done.

 

[Keystone agony]

Lions cant use the points as limited number of list spots.

hence the following trade already been done.

View attachment 2154255

They can once the draft starts

 

[Keystone agony]

Stkilda have 8 list spots available, but only 4 draft picks

I think there is a fair chance theyre trading out of 8 to maybe GWS 15/16/21 combination

Then if we can trade 27, 28, 31 for 16 and 47. Then something like that would be absolute best case scenario for us

 

[Keystone agony]

If that’s the case why wouldn’t you trade with us? You’ll get 26 back after a bid, 2 x F2s and a F3?

What is the proposed trade?

 

[eaglevision]

What is the proposed trade?

Not an exact science but assuming same ladder positions in 2025

WCE (before Kako bid)
OUT: F2 (WCE), F2 (HAW), F3 (HAW)
IN: 28, 31, 46

WCE (after Kako bid)
OUT: 26
IN: F2 (ESS)

NET
OUT: 26, F2 (WCE), F2 (HAW), F3 (HAW)
IN: 28, 31, 46, F2 (ESS)



You’d still have enough points to match a Kako bid from around pick 10, come back into the draft at 26 and have 2 x 2R and a 3R for next year.

 

[Keystone agony]

Not an exact science but assuming same ladder positions in 2025

WCE (before Kako bid)
OUT: F2 (WCE), F2 (HAW), F3 (HAW)
IN: 28, 31, 46

WCE (after Kako bid)
OUT: 26
IN: F2 (ESS)

NET
OUT: 26, F2 (WCE), F2 (HAW), F3 (HAW)
IN: 28, 31, 46, F2 (ESS)

View attachment 2154420

You’d still have enough points to match a Kako bid from around pick 10, come back into the draft at 26 and have 2 x 2R and a 3R for next year.

Looks pretty good from a brief look

Might be the best we can do

 

[eaglevision]

Looks pretty good from a brief look

Might be the best we can do

Looks fair to me and addresses needs for both clubs. We essentially hide a pick for you but get to transfer out of next year’s draft into this one.

 

[eth-dog]

Looks pretty good from a brief look

Might be the best we can do

Reasons why it's stupid listed here

 

[dank420_]

Where?

 

[eth-dog]

Where?

KA likes the trade.

 

[eDPS]

Stkilda have 8 list spots available, but only 4 draft picks

I think there is a fair chance theyre trading out of 8 to maybe GWS 15/16/21 combination

Then if we can trade 27, 28, 31 for 16 and 47. Then something like that would be absolute best case scenario for us

They have 3 NGA/FS prospects likely to go in the 40+ range. They will absolutely use 7 and 8 and hope to use 32 before a bid for those players and they might look to split pick 47 for a few later picks if the need to

 

[eth-dog]

They have 3 NGA/FS prospects likely to go in the 40+ range. They will absolutely use 7 and 8 and hope to use 32 before a bid for those players and they might look to split pick 47 for a few later picks if the need to

Who are they? If a bid comes before 32 I'd be trying to trade up with our later picks so they get more points

 

[eDPS]

Who are they? If a bid comes before 32 I'd be trying to trade up with our later picks so they get more points

Adrian Cole, Lennox Hofmann and Elwood Peckett

 

[jdstorm]

If that’s the case why wouldn’t you trade with us? You’ll get 26 back after a bid, 2 x F2s and a F3?

Sounds like a pretty good option. I’d say your as good a chance to get that pick as any.

You just have to let the market set the price so you wait until draft day before deciding.

All teams will have the opportunity to bid and the picks will presumably go to the best offer.

28 + 31 for 2x F2s + F3 seems fair even if it’s probably slightly under what you’d want given the hype around this draft.

 

[eaglevision]

Sounds like a pretty good option. I’d say your as good a chance to get that pick as any.

You just have to let the market set the price so you wait until draft day before deciding.

All teams will have the opportunity to bid and the picks will presumably go to the best offer.

28 + 31 for 2x F2s + F3 seems fair even if it’s probably slightly under what you’d want given the hype around this draft.

You’re getting pick 26 too. So 28,31,46,F2 for 26,F2x2,F3. Although I saw some media reports that you might be trading into the early 1R.

 

[jdstorm]

You’re getting pick 26 too. So 28,31,46,F2 for 26,F2x2,F3. Although I saw some media reports that you might be trading into the early 1R.

Yeah it’s 3 2nd round picks and a 3rd for 3 2nd round picks + future 3rd. So fairly even value all things considered. In terms of dodging a bid it’s decent value.

I think it falls short of what you’d expect if you traded 28 and 31 separately. Each of those picks would be worth a F2 + something else.

 

[Keystone agony]

Sounds like a pretty good option. I’d say your as good a chance to get that pick as any.

You just have to let the market set the price so you wait until draft day before deciding.

All teams will have the opportunity to bid and the picks will presumably go to the best offer.

28 + 31 for 2x F2s + F3 seems fair even if it’s probably slightly under what you’d want given the hype around this draft.

26 over F2 is advantageous aswell

The issue is relying on them doing that deal later on post bid

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeah it’s 3 2nd round picks and a 3rd for 3 2nd round picks + future 3rd. So fairly even value all things considered. In terms of dodging a bid it’s decent value.

I think it falls short of what you’d expect if you traded 28 and 31 separately. Each of those picks would be worth a F2 + something else.

The issue is 28 and 31 cant get us anything before a Kako bid in reality, so theyll need to be moved into next year unless our F1 is involved

 

[jdstorm]

The issue is 28 and 31 cant get us anything before a Kako bid in reality, so theyll need to be moved into next year unless our F1 is involved

Yeah but surely they are worth F2 and a pick this year say 45 or later each. You just want a 2 for 1 opportunity at the very least.