Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we have a top 10 pick?

[Yoda_]

2024 (pick 9) + 2025 first (hypothetically plausible pick 2 - 5) for pick 3?


no thanks

 

[FootyGuru]

Yes but an F1 and Kako would likely be better than whoever were taking instead if were not to match the bid

Definitely makes sense. A perfect scenario is we take someone before kako and match him.

My scenario where we wouldn’t match
Pick 9 would be if someone has slipped who Rosa rated in the best couple.

He’s shown with trading up for caddy that he’s willing to do what it takes to get his target.

 

[jdstorm]

This is why I’m not worried about st kilda kako bid, if they want him at 8 I think we end up with a better player from the tier 1 group.

Obviously it’ll take Rosa really liking a particular player from that tier, otherwise it would be wise to match kako and trade our pick to next year.

He traded a pick to move up one place because he really rated caddy, clearly isn’t afraid of outside perceptions.

the whole point of the current NGA points system is that you get these guys basically for free.

You can potentially turn 3 picks in the late 30s into Kako depending on where he’s bid on.

Getting Kako for pick 28 and a later pick via splitting at trading back is the benefit.

If you pass and take a different player you get 1x top 10 pick and pick 30+ where as if you trade the FRP either up or out for another FRP you get 2top 10 picks.

That’s the advantage/loophole that the afl are closing

 

[Keystone agony]

Definitely makes sense. A perfect scenario is we take someone before kako and match him.

My scenario where we wouldn’t match
Pick 9 would be if someone has slipped who Rosa rated in the best couple.

He’s shown with trading up for caddy that he’s willing to do what it takes to get his target.

Id say Dodoro, RFK and even Brad Scott in this situation all had more say than Rosa in regards to Caddy

Theres only 2 scenarios
1) Take pick 9, Bid for Kako comes post pick 9
2) Bid for Kako Pre Pick 9, Trade pick 9 out to a F1 (Likely Dogs or Dees)

I dont really see a scenario where we dont match Kakos bid. It would have to come crazy early (Dees get pushed to pick 6 - even then i think we probably find a way to match

Hard to see when you have a

Lalor
FOS
Tauru
Draper
Jagga
Smilie
Langford
H.Armstrong
Bo Allen
Murphy Reid

group

 

[Corleone]

Id say Dodoro, RFK and even Brad Scott in this situation all had more say than Rosa in regards to Caddy

Theres only 2 scenarios
1) Take pick 9, Bid for Kako comes post pick 9
2) Bid for Kako Pre Pick 9, Trade pick 9 out to a F1 (Likely Dogs or Dees)

I dont really see a scenario where we dont match Kakos bid. It would have to come crazy early (Dees get pushed to pick 6 - even then i think we probably find a way to match

Hard to see when you have a

Lalor
FOS
Tauru
Draper
Jagga
Smilie
Langford
H.Armstrong
Bo Allen
Murphy Reid

group

There is a third option; which is moving up the draft order from pick 9. This proactively ensures we are scuppering any spiteful bids on Kako by the Saints. I prefer this proactive option rather than being reactive on draft night and hoping that the Dees/Dogs are up for that trade on the night. What happens if we line it all up and these other clubs pull out?

West Coast could be after more capital next year in an attempt to get Warner home.

Pick 9 and our F1 for Pick 3 is a good call imo.

I actually think we will finish bottom 4 next year, I also think we might lose a Draper to FA next year and end up with a compo First rounder anyway.

 

[ant555]

I don’t expect any trade with pick 9 is done until draft night when that pick holds its most value

The more I think about it I agree. Hold your nerve and if a bid comes someone will want 9.

 

[Keystone agony]

There is a third option; which is moving up the draft order from pick 9. This proactively ensures we are scuppering any spiteful bids on Kako by the Saints. I prefer this proactive option rather than being reactive on draft night and hoping that the Dees/Dogs are up for that trade on the night. What happens if we line it all up and these other clubs pull out?

West Coast could be after more capital next year in an attempt to get Warner home.

Pick 9 and our F1 for Pick 3 is a good call imo.

I actually think we will finish bottom 4 next year, I also think we might lose a Draper to FA next year and end up with a compo First rounder anyway.

Pick 9 is that strong in the draft someone eventually in the 1st round comes for it

The whole comp is just against Essendon

That scenario wouldnt likely play out on draft night, would happen now

 

[jdstorm]

I think you have to be proactive about trading either up or out because it removes teams incentive to bid on Kako and he’s more likely to slide

Edit: if we were to trade up with the eagles and give up F1 for 3 and points for Kako in practice we’ve turned pick 10 + ??? Into picks 4 and Kako (10) and basically ensured 2 top 10 picks in a strong draft from two FRP

It’s a very sensible risk averse option. Even if it doesn’t maximise the value of the pick.

The downside here is that Essendon need a midsize player. If Lalor and Langford were to go 1 and 2 you’d have to really rate Smilie/Taru for that outcome to still be worth it.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

There is a third option; which is moving up the draft order from pick 9. This proactively ensures we are scuppering any spiteful bids on Kako by the Saints. I prefer this proactive option rather than being reactive on draft night and hoping that the Dees/Dogs are up for that trade on the night. What happens if we line it all up and these other clubs pull out?

West Coast could be after more capital next year in an attempt to get Warner home.

Pick 9 and our F1 for Pick 3 is a good call imo.

I actually think we will finish bottom 4 next year, I also think we might lose a Draper to FA next year and end up with a compo First rounder anyway.

This is bad strategy.

With most of these players rated similarly, we wouldn't be gaining a competitive advantage over the rest of the comp by getting a disproportionately talented player, while giving up that chance next year. So giving up an extra top end talent seems silly. We aren't in any rush.

May as well take 3 first round talents over the next 2 years than 2.

 

[Corleone]

This is bad strategy.

With most of these players rated similarly, we wouldn't be gaining a competitive advantage over the rest of the comp by getting a disproportionately talented player, while giving up that chance next year. So giving up an extra top end talent seems silly. We aren't in any rush.

May as well take 3 first round talents over the next 2 years than 2.

Not all draft years are the same. Take a look at our "haul" from 2020. We could be loading up for another weak draft when this one is considered to be very strong.

Anyway, just my opinion, we have the option to move up the order now and to me that's worth it.

Ideally we don't have bid come in before pick 9 and we get a great young talent and Kako too.

 

[Keystone agony]

This draft is strong in the sense from 5/10-60 imo even more so 20-60

I dont think the top 5 talent really is that great compared to recent years

 

[justlookingaround]

weak hand in the super draft with all our capitial tied up in an academy pick.
does it get more essington than that?

 

[brutus76]

Just hold the cards until draft night

Freo, GWS and Richmond are all clubs we can work worth to trade 9 for a lesser 1st and get a bunch of picks in the 20s and 30s seeing the talent pool runs pretty deep this year

 

[Keystone agony]

Stringer for Stone, F2, 57, 60 and 78


Take 9 to that live pick in draft. If a bid, trade to next years F1 for Melbourne or Dogs with additional points if need be

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Not all draft years are the same. Take a look at our "haul" from 2020. We could be loading up for another weak draft when this one is considered to be very strong.

Anyway, just my opinion, we have the option to move up the order now and to me that's worth it.

Ideally we don't have bid come in before pick 9 and we get a great young talent and Kako too.

Outside of Lalor, Tauru, Hotton, Travaglia, Draper and Langford (and Kako) I'm not that crazy on these draft prospects for us. And now our pick has been pushed back one, there is a chance they are all gone by us.

I like the size profile of next years top prospects and am willing to back them in. We certainly aren't a point were we can afford to be burning first rounders on non-superstar type prospects.

 

[Vindicater]

The more I think about it I agree. Hold your nerve and if a bid comes someone will want 9.

The smart play. There will be teams lined up to trade in for the pick on the night.

 

[justlookingaround]

Packo will go have the best season of his career at GWS and get a second flag

 

[ghostdog]

Not all draft years are the same. Take a look at our "haul" from 2020. We could be loading up for another weak draft when this one is considered to be very strong.

Anyway, just my opinion, we have the option to move up the order now and to me that's worth it.

Ideally we don't have bid come in before pick 9 and we get a great young talent and Kako too.

I've been trying to make this point for a while but no one has wanted to even acknowledge it is a factor.

It makes no sense to trade ourselves out of what we know is a strong draft, for a 'strong' position in a draft of unknown quality.

 

[eth-dog]

I've been trying to make this point for a while but no one has wanted to even acknowledge it is a factor.

It makes no sense to trade ourselves out of what we know is a strong draft, for a 'strong' position in a draft of unknown quality.

Everyone wants us to have a pick before a Kako bid comes in. We're simply saying that if a bid comes in before our pick, we're better off live trading our pick into next year so we can still have three first round picks over this year and next year.

 

[Keystone agony]

Outside of Lalor, Tauru, Hotton, Travaglia, Draper and Langford (and Kako) I'm not that crazy on these draft prospects for us. And now our pick has been pushed back one, there is a chance they are all gone by us.

I like the size profile of next years top prospects and am willing to back them in. We certainly aren't a point were we can afford to be burning first rounders on non-superstar type prospects.

Id be fine with a Jagga, Smilie at 9 to be honest and very happy with a FOS or Bo Allen who Rosa would have strong links to

Even Armstrong is probably fine, although i admit havnt watched enough of him yet