Value is gone at $13 IMO, that's about the right price for him currently.
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Value is gone at $13 IMO, that's about the right price for him currently.
anyone else see port as value 'to make top 4' $2.40 at lads??? I roughly did the ladder predictor for remaining rounds for the current top 5 teams and they are a reasonable chance to knock lions down to 5th.. Lions to make top 4 $1.33 seems way too short..
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I did a quick predictor and have 2nd-4th all on 17 wins with Port 5th on 16 wins.
iluvparis
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- Apr 1, 2005
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Its probably an ok bet - I reckon they will end up either 4th or 5th with Brisbane as you say so from a trading prospective backing whichever one is >$2 is probably ok for now.
Slight overs but I wouldn't bet the house on it.
I think the Dogs at $3.25 to win the minor premiership is better value.
WC away
NM home - 11
Sydney home - 12
Suns away - 13
Crows home - 14
Melb away - 15
Ess - 16
Hawks Tassie - 17
PA home - 18
I give them a decent chance to knock over the eagles this week but we'll call that one a loss. From then onwards they should win every match except maybe v Melbourne, but I reckon the Dees have peaked too early and Treloar and Dunkley will be back by then. It'll be a 50/50 match at worst and you're getting $3.25 for the Dogs to win it provided everything else goes to plan.
WC away
NM home - 11
Sydney home - 12
Suns away - 13
Crows home - 14
Melb away - 15
Ess - 16
Hawks Tassie - 17
PA home - 18
I give them a decent chance to knock over the eagles this week but we'll call that one a loss. From then onwards they should win every match except maybe v Melbourne, but I reckon the Dees have peaked too early and Treloar and Dunkley will be back by then. It'll be a 50/50 match at worst and you're getting $3.25 for the Dogs to win it provided everything else goes to plan.
Is Koschitzke overs for RS? $67 on Lads.
Pretty much on his own in the Hawthorn forward line. Has kicked more that any other RS nomineee yet Tilthorpe is $13.
Pretty much on his own in the Hawthorn forward line. Has kicked more that any other RS nomineee yet Tilthorpe is $13.
- Apr 6, 2016
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Rising star is between Cox and Green IMO.
My money's on Green. Cox was $2.50 fave prior to yesterday's game. Played ordinary and made a couple of crucial errors. Didn't kick a goal either. As a result, Green is getting closer to him in betting. Green was outright favourite a few weeks ago.
iluvparis
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Agreed - that looks an outstanding bet at the current price and much better than the Port Top 4 bet - I have them finishing either a game clear or on the same number of wins as the Dees and they have a massive % buffer.
Possibly worth waiting a week for Dogs minor premiership, lose this week with Dees winning will blow the odds out a bit
Obviously the risk is they win but that won't change the ladder from now if they both get 4 points so minimal affect on odds
Obviously the risk is they win but that won't change the ladder from now if they both get 4 points so minimal affect on odds
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
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- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
People always say this and its the wrong play - if they win a 50:50 game that increases their chances of finishing on top considerably and the price will be slashed - regardless of the impact on the current ladder.
And what if Melbourne lose?
Of course it increases their chances if they win, They're underdogs to lose this week & playing away. More likely to lose than not, whilst Melbourne are favourites and should handle bombers easily. Both scenarios are 'ifs' and 'shoulds' but it's more likely to be an 8 point deficit on the ladder than even.
Those things are already factored into the odds though so if you believe the Dogs are Minor Prems bet then you must rate them higher than the current market does so the time to get on them is now. The only time it ever makes sense to wait is if you are projecting a team to improve in future weeks due to personnel changes or something
Still think Richmond can finish top 4. Only play two top 8 sides in the run home (Brisbane and Geelong) and both matches are at the G. They're currently 2 games + percentage behind Port and Brisbane but could easily see them belting some of the lowly sides (they play all the bottom 4 still) and bridging the % gap.
iluvparis
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- Apr 1, 2005
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Just back them for the flag if you think they can make top 4. Close to morals if they do and get some small insurance if they win it from outside the 4
It could be worth waiting if you thought the dogs were overs overall to be Minor Prem but unders this week (I dunno say if you really rate WCE?) But yea in general I agree.
- Oct 6, 2011
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with other states now putting a state border closure on NSW
Sydney odds of making the 8 have to be reassessed:
Port Adelaide (A)
West Coast-will be potentially moved , Im thinking if its in Perth....Swans would start heavy underdogs.
GWS - potentially could be played neutrally. Think it would be a coin toss if played neutrally right now.
Fremantle - was original scheduled to be a Swans home game, as they had already played earlier in the year in Perth.
Essendon
St.Kilda
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
There is the potential for them to lose the next 3 games, potentially 4 as Freo are thereabouts outside the 8. The run home looks decent though last 3 in particular.
They are currently $1.40 with TAB to make 8, $1.59 on the Exchange to make the 8.
Sydney odds of making the 8 have to be reassessed:
Port Adelaide (A)
West Coast-will be potentially moved , Im thinking if its in Perth....Swans would start heavy underdogs.
GWS - potentially could be played neutrally. Think it would be a coin toss if played neutrally right now.
Fremantle - was original scheduled to be a Swans home game, as they had already played earlier in the year in Perth.
Essendon
St.Kilda
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
There is the potential for them to lose the next 3 games, potentially 4 as Freo are thereabouts outside the 8. The run home looks decent though last 3 in particular.
They are currently $1.40 with TAB to make 8, $1.59 on the Exchange to make the 8.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
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Unsurprisingly $3.25 no longer available for the best team in the comp.
- May 6, 2009
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Which of the four best teams in the comp are you referring to?
iluvparis
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This week
