AFL AFL Futures 2021

[5 Bucks]

Dogs don't really have any negatives though.

They lost to a top 4 team in a dead rubber. No big deal.

They lost after the siren to a fully fit cats team on their home deck with 2 star players out, no big deal.

They lost to Richmond when they were traveling okay. No big deal.

It's not like they were lucky to beat an already injury ravaged GWS because they lost more during the game had 0 fit players on the bench. It's not like they lost two bottom 4 teams.

 

[5 Bucks]

Anyway Brisbane look great value at $5 to finish on top. Don't think they'll lose another match. Dogs might not either though.

Good chance for the Lions to get two home finals too and they're yet to lose at the gabba this year.

Cats might not lose another match either. Dees to finish 4th and get wrecked by the Lions in week one.

 

[iluvparis]

Anyway Brisbane look great value at $5 to finish on top. Don't think they'll lose another match. Dogs might not either though.

Good chance for the Lions to get two home finals too and they're yet to lose at the gabba this year.

Cats might not lose another match either. Dees to finish 4th and get wrecked by the Lions in week one.

I'd rather back both Dogs and Dees at effective odds of $1.50 - I've got it about $1.20 one of those two finishing on top

 

[The_Steadier]

Yes if you are 10%+ clear at the end of the season

That's not what you are saying though.

1. we've established that when you are talking about the dogs being 'the best team in the competition'- this is in reference to them winning the minor premiership.

2. When asked about what evidence supports this, you've cited their current 17% higher percentage after 14 rounds as evidence.
Not at the end of the season...after 14 rounds.

The dogs being 17% ahead of everyone else at round 14 is a completely different proposition to the cats being 17% ahead at the end of the season.

Your reasoning in saying the dogs are going to be minor premier because they are 17% ahead after 14 rounds is not in any way backed up by the cats being that far ahead at the END of the season.

unless you are saying there is zero chance the dogs aren't 17% ahead of everyone else at the end of this year- is that what you think?

 

[iluvparis]

That's not what you are saying though.

1. we've established that when you are talking about the dogs being 'the best team in the competition'- this is in reference to them winning the minor premiership.

2. When asked about what evidence supports this, you've cited their current 17% higher percentage after 14 rounds as evidence.
Not at the end of the season...after 14 rounds.

The dogs being 17% ahead of everyone else at round 14 is a completely different proposition to the cats being 17% ahead at the end of the season.

Your reasoning in saying the dogs are going to be minor premier because they are 17% ahead after 14 rounds is not in any way backed up by the cats being that far ahead at the END of the season.

unless you are saying there is zero chance the dogs aren't 17% ahead of everyone else at the end of this year- is that what you think?

Yes well its also obvious that if they aren't 10% ahead at the end of the season then they won't be - but we will already know that at the time!

It's a bit like saying Melbourne are no good because - yeah they are top now - but they could end up not top! Stunning logic!!!

 

[Jugada]

Dogs don't really have any negatives though.

They lost to a top 4 team in a dead rubber. No big deal.

They lost after the siren to a fully fit cats team on their home deck with 2 star players out, no big deal.

They lost to Richmond when they were traveling okay. No big deal.

It's not like they were lucky to beat an already injury ravaged GWS because they lost more during the game had 0 fit players on the bench. It's not like they lost two bottom 4 teams.

Mate a top 4 battle in May is the opposite of a dead rubber. They're 8 point matches. Massive confirmation bias stuff trying to go down that road.

The negatives are they have lost 3 matches against top 8 sides and were comfortably beaten by the team that is the best team in the league on their home deck. They're good but Dees have been better

 

[The_Steadier]

Yes well its also obvious that if they aren't 10% ahead at the end of the season then they won't be - but we will already know that at the time!

But that wont happen because the dogs are clearly the best team in the competition- right?

 

[5 Bucks]

I'd rather back both Dogs and Dees at effective odds of $1.50 - I've got it about $1.20 one of those two finishing on top

Dees play away to Port, Gee, WC and play WB at the G. Good chance of losing 2 of them.

If Brisbane win every week they'll have a superior percentage to the Dees.

Dogs obviously the most likely but I think $5 is value.

 

[iluvparis]

But that wont happen because the dogs are clearly the best team in the competition- right?

Yes and Richmond were clearly the best team in 2018 and Geelong were clearly the best team in 2008 and I tip 9/9 every week not just H2H but at the line

 

[5 Bucks]

Mate a top 4 battle in May is the opposite of a dead rubber. They're 8 point matches. Massive confirmation bias stuff trying to go down that road.

The negatives are they have lost 3 matches against top 8 sides and were comfortably beaten by the team that is the best team in the league on their home deck. They're good but Dees have been better

Dees may have been better but as I said a couple of weeks ago I think they've peaked too early, and the Dogs can get better when Dunkley and Treloar are back in.

In the last fortnight who has been better? Dogs performance on the cheat ground was a positive despite the loss, and the way they destroyed the Eagles speaks for itself. Melbourne lost to a bottom team and just got over the line Vs a team that may or may not scrape into finals.

Trending in different directions at the moment and likely to continue IMO.

 

[The_Steadier]

Yes and Richmond were clearly the best team in 2018 and Geelong were clearly the best team in 2008 and I tip 9/9 every week not just H2H but at the line

Ok great so we all learned something today.

It's dumb to speak in absolutes like proclaiming a side to be irrefutably 'the best team in the comp'

 

[iluvparis]

Ok great so we all learned something today.

It's dumb to speak in absolutes like proclaiming a side to be irrefutably 'the best team in the comp'

They are irrefutably the best team in the comp as it stands right now - that we can judge. This isn't that difficult.

 

[Jugada]

Dees may have been better but as I said a couple of weeks ago I think they've peaked too early, and the Dogs can get better when Dunkley and Treloar are back in.

In the last fortnight who has been better? Dogs performance on the cheat ground was a positive despite the loss, and the way they destroyed the Eagles speaks for itself. Melbourne lost to a bottom team and just got over the line Vs a team that may or may not scrape into finals.

Trending in different directions at the moment and likely to continue IMO.

#guessing

This peaked too early is nonsense. Why are they more likely to drop off than anyone else just because they are playing at a higher level right now? Most logical answer is they are just better.

In the last fortnight? Solid sample size

 

[iluvparis]

#guessing

This peaked too early is nonsense. Why are they more likely to drop off than anyone else just because they are playing at a higher level right now? Most logical answer is they are just better.

In the last fortnight? Solid sample size

A grand total of 1 week in time less than you think the Dogs form is no good - lel

 

[Jugada]

A grand total of 1 week in time less than you think the Dogs form is no good - lel

Wut? I never said the Dogs form was no good. Its just not as good as the Dees

 

[iluvparis]

Wut? I never said the Dogs form was no good. Its just not as good as the Dees

You said earlier there last month has been average lol

 

[Jugada]

You said earlier there last month has been average lol

When you said they had been the best team in the comp over the last month and I said they'd want to be doing a lot better than 2-2 in that time to get that title?

 

[iluvparis]

When you said they had been the best team in the comp over the last month and I said they'd want to be doing a lot better than 2-2 in that time to get that title?

Nah I said they became the best team in the comp a month ago after flogging the Saints - you confused for with over

 

[Jugada]

Nah I said they became the best team in the comp a month ago after flogging the Saints - you confused for with over

Alright. Must have held that title for a nice little 6 days then I assume

 

[iluvparis]

Alright. Must have held that title for a nice little 6 days then I assume

Wut?

 

[Jugada]

Wut?

That's how long til the real champs ran rings around them on their home deck

 

[iluvparis]

That's how long til the real champs ran rings around them on their home deck

So under the heavyweight title system I believe Freo are now the best team in the comp! Get around the purple haze!

 

[baby pluto]

Iluvparis must be in so much gambling debt with how horrible his football knowledge is.

 

[Jugada]

So under the heavyweight title system I believe Freo are now the best team in the comp! Get around the purple haze!

Dees have been the best team since I signalled it pre Tigs. Everyone else is just various levels of being late to the party obviously. I look forward to the day you jump on board

 

[5 Bucks]

#guessing

This peaked too early is nonsense. Why are they more likely to drop off than anyone else just because they are playing at a higher level right now? Most logical answer is they are just better.

In the last fortnight? Solid sample size

They ARE dropping off is the point. Beating Geelong who hadn't even warmed up yet at round 4 is all well and good but doesn't mean they're in great form now, and their current recent efforts are proof of that