AFL AFL Futures 2022

[IDIG]

I've had a go at Wright Coleman $151. Bit optimistic to think he wins but averaged 2.3 goals his last 10 last season which includes a bag of 7 so if it's a low total he might get close enough, if we're good enough, and he spends most of his time forward.

Wound into $41 after i put the bet on which is a good sign i guess.

Happy with how this is shaping up. Always knew we had a tough start to the year but felt if he was there or thereabouts after Rd 3, he’d give it a real shake.

Rd 1 - cats 2.0
Rd 2 - lions 3.1 and was ready to tear the game apart
Rd 3 - dees 4.1 and think it might’ve been wet

Now equal leader with Adelaide, Freo, Collingwood next and 4 of our next 5 at Marvel with the other at the G.

Edit: and the crows just gave up 5 to Marshall

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

North Melbourne $3.25 for least wins SB. No chance the next 4 weeks.

Surprised Cats are 3rd on the line to make top 4 @ $2.15 on SB. Were lucky to win yesterday and many times looked old and slow.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Taylor Walker

13

Taylor Walker

Age

34

Ht

194cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.7

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

8.0

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

1.6

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

$101 for Coleman on 365. Pack hasn’t got too far away from him.

 

[NYRB]

Joe Daniher to Win Coleman Medal
Adelaide to Make The Top 8

Odds: 158/1

Being a tad optimistic but reckon Crows can go around 8-5 in their next 13 matches

 

[NYRB]

Taylor Walker $101 for Coleman on 365. Pack hasn’t got too far away from him.

afters yesterdays game, 100/1 looking not too bad. But at the current price of 40/1 , id give a miss right now as its around the right price.

4 goals in his return, and is only 9 behind the leading back.

 

[IDIG]

Taylor Walker $101 for Coleman on 365. Pack hasn’t got too far away from him.

Great get. Kicked 5.2 on the weekend so he’s closed the gap a bit and now only 7 off the pace.

Can’t seem to find the market on 365 but currently sb 15, Tab 17, pb 17, neds 26

 

[NYRB]

Cross Sport Futures Multi

New Orleans Pelicans to win the Western Conference
Joe Daniher to Win Coleman

Odds: 487/1


Pelicans just squared their series with Phoenix. Daniher was solid last week against the Magpies.

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

I hope that was a $1 bet lol

 

[NYRB]

I hope that was a $1 bet lol

I mentioned this in the basketball forum. But if Devin Booker is all for the rest of this series, surely the Pels are a chance to create some noise in the Playoffs?

60/1 to win the West, 150/1 to win the whole thing.

Its worth a sprinkle with some loose change.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Have big time orazed Port top 8 at $6.

Half expecting the odds to be $10, but take what you can get.

I think they looked like the powerhouse of the last 2 years for the first time this season in the second half of the Carlton game and am hoping that that is the precipitator for them rediscovering their form.

Not too concerned about them being 0-5. Have seen a few "sleeping giants" historically who have experienced sustained success in the proceeding years and started slow on the back of it (St Kilda 2011 1-1-5 after consecutive grand finals and Sydney 2017 0-6 after a grand final appearance the year before). Even Essendon last year started 1-4 and weren't even that good after that and still made finals.

Here's hoping.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Is Nick Daicos still a lock for RS?

Newcombe or Ginnivan smokies?

I mean if Stephenson can win it……

 

[GROTTO]

Is Nick Daicos still a lock for RS?

Newcombe or Ginnivan smokies?

I mean if Stephenson can win it……

Ginnivan at $18 SB

 

[Macca180]

Have big time orazed Port top 8 at $6.

Don't hate that.... do a ladder predictor... they should get close

Problem is not much room for **** ups now.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Don't hate that.... do a ladder predictor... they should get close

Problem is not much room for fu** ups now.

Richmond in 2014 (before they were good - when they used to finish 9th or get annihilated in the first week of finals), made finals from 3-11. Yes, 3-11.

With that in mind I don't know how dire being 0-5 is or isn't, especially when you're a team who won 8 games in a row at one point last year.

I think if a team's good enough then they'll get there, upsets happen all the time, I wouldn't worry about doing a ladder predictor personally.

GWS last year were paying $12 to make finals 3 games out because they needed to win all 3 and had a game vs Geelong.

Don't know if Port will make finals, probably 50/50, but great value potentially at $6, could maybe still get them at $5 on Betfair now.

 

[iluvparis]

Richmond in 2014 (before they were good - when they used to finish 9th or get annihilated in the first week of finals), made finals from 3-11. Yes, 3-11.

With that in mind I don't know how dire being 0-5 is or isn't, especially when you're a team who won 8 games in a row at one point last year.

I think if a team's good enough then they'll get there, upsets happen all the time, I wouldn't worry about doing a ladder predictor personally.

GWS last year were paying $12 to make finals 3 games out because they needed to win all 3 and had a game vs Geelong.

Don't know if Port will make finals, probably 50/50, but great value potentially at $6, could maybe still get them at $5 on Betfair now.

Some sort of probabilistic ladder predictor is a must if your looking for value in these kind of bets.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Some sort of probabilistic ladder predictor is a must if your looking for value in these kind of bets.

I would have though that that is exactly what the bookies do, and you're going to be coming up with the same sort of probability as them if you have any sort of competency with prediction.

If you were to do one for Port when they were 0-5 you would likely have come up with them finishing with 9 or 10 wins, including a loss to St Kilda on the weekend (which would make sense as they were an underdog), but that's just not how football works, there are upsets galore, and teams often lift their rating and become better teams throughout the seasons, whilst other teams do the opposite.

I used to do ladder predictor when betting on top 8 markets but I got burned multiple times by discouraging myself from betting on teams because mathematically I couldn't see them getting there, but low and behold, their level raised and they got through.

I recall people last year recommending West Coast as a top 8 bet towards the end of the year because they had a soft draw coming up, but they proceeded to lose 7 of their last 9 games - similarly to Richmond; thus the state of teams can change as the season goes on, especially those volatile teams that finish from 7-12, which is where the value is.

I would definitely recommend considering ladder prediction if it's late in the season, and you're essentially betting on a mutli (with the allowance of a few losses), but not when you're essentially betting on a whole season, too much can change between then and when it really matters.

 

[Jugada]

If that's what the bookies are doing then fair to say its the right way to go about it. The goal isn't to just do it in a random way so that you can come up with a totally different answer. I agree that these long term markets are harder to predict given what can change over a season but taking into the likely probability of every match to be played is clearly going to be the best way to get an accurate answer

 

[5 Bucks]

STK

v Melb
v Geelong - maybe
v Crom (away) - maybe
v NM - win
v Bris (away)
v Ess - win
v Syd (away)
v Carl - maybe
v Frem - maybe
v WB - maybe
v WC (away) - probably
v Haw - maybe
v Gee (away)
v Bris
v Syd

Saints with 7 wins locked in, West Coast could be a different team by then but it looks like a win (8) and if they win half of the maybe matches they make it to just 11 wins. They could upset Sydney in the last round at home, or win 4/6 maybe matches but if they go 2-4 in those then they will be in trouble. Hard to say if they make finals or not at this point. The 1.53 currently offered by SB is garbage when they're likely to make it to just 11 wins IMO. 11 and the best % (which they have v other teams fighting for the 8) might be enough to get in, might not.

 

[The_Steadier]

STK

v Melb
v Geelong - maybe
v Crom (away) - maybe
v NM - win
v Bris (away)
v Ess - win
v Syd (away)
v Carl - maybe
v Frem - maybe
v WB - maybe
v WC (away) - probably
v Haw - maybe
v Gee (away)
v Bris
v Syd

Saints with 7 wins locked in, West Coast could be a different team by then but it looks like a win (8) and if they win half of the maybe matches they make it to just 11 wins. They could upset Sydney in the last round at home, or win 4/6 maybe matches but if they go 2-4 in those then they will be in trouble. Hard to say if they make finals or not at this point. The 1.53 currently offered by SB is garbage when they're likely to make it to just 11 wins IMO. 11 and the best % (which they have v other teams fighting for the 8) might be enough to get in, might not.

I'd change the hawks to a win.
They are in rebuild mode playing the kids and we gave them a fair old touchup a few weeks back.

The rest I'd pretty well agree with.
We should make it, but it's no certainty- circa 1.50 feels about right.

 

[Sausage Legs]

How the hell is Sam DeConny still 26s on sbet. Should be clear 2nd fave and media only waking up to him. Will get the nod this week and be sub 10s come Tuesday. Get some

 

[5 Bucks]

How the hell is Sam DeConny still 26s on sbet. Should be clear 2nd fave and media only waking up to him. Will get the nod this week and be sub 10s come Tuesday. Get some

Even the people who are trying to hype him up for some reason don't even know his name, that's why.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Even the people who are trying to hype him up for some reason don't even know his name, that's why.

Sorry not brain surjen

 

[Bucking Bronco]

How the hell is Sam DeConny still 26s on sbet. Should be clear 2nd fave and media only waking up to him. Will get the nod this week and be sub 10s come Tuesday. Get some

I don't know about 2nd favourite but he'll be starting to get up there.

Fact he is 21 will work against him as they seem to mark the over-ages harder (and he is 2 years over-age).

One thing I am considering is Newcombe is a super physical player, and with being quite young in the tooth could be liable to get suspended for a bump or tackle at some stage.

Happened with Dustin Martin and Toby Greene in their years when they were both short-priced favourites.

 

[NYRB]

How the hell is Sam DeConny still 26s on sbet. Should be clear 2nd fave and media only waking up to him. Will get the nod this week and be sub 10s come Tuesday. Get some

First time I have heard of him.

Havent been bothered using Google to search for his name and I dont know what club he plays for.

 

[Sausage Legs]

If ya haven't heard of de koning prob best not to be betting on these markets