AFL AFL Futures 2022

[NYRB]

Lack of fractions in betting is why Australia's numeracy is running low.

Watch an AFL game from the late 90s and two things will confuse viewers. 1) Norm Short and 2) 7/4.

I presume Bookies will offer unders on Pies because their followers will load up no matter the odds.

I think to say Australians lack or dont use much of fractional odds is maybe a little bit understated.

If you walk into any casino in Australia, all their payouts, betting information slips, tables show the pay out at fractional odds. The casino being a popular hangout spot for the young and youth.

Roulette being a common game , i often see the payouts mentioned on there. At the same time to agree with your point, many wouldn't know what a pay out on a 'straight up' bet and what a 35/1 to payout means. Or a 'split' at 17/1. Or even Betting and getting paid on a 'Street' at 11/1. It was probably about 13 years into betting, when I actually I guess fully understood the fractional side of betting. Im pretty sure in my last days using bet365, i left it on the fractional side in terms of settings.

Yeah I guess I dont want to confuse the young folk in here. Mention something like odds of 1/3, 1/4, 5/4, 7/2 and alot of the younger kids dare I say it wouldnt be able to do that in the head. Coming from a tutoring mathematical background, even the average kids in Year 11 and Year 12 doing a high level math would struggle to do that in the head. They all reach out for the calculator these days.

Think it works out to be a bit of an advantage if you can convert from decimal to fraction vice versa for betting. Mind you I was a pretty hopeless math student back in the younger years, but through gambling/trading I have got quicker at it over time.

 

[GROTTO]

Odds of you being correct is -110

iluvparis those odds mean that you are correct not something to be upset about, ie hot favourites. lol

Even I had to look up those stupid odds to understand them.

 

[Man of leisure]

Plugged it into the algorithm and it turns out that RICHMOND FLAG 2022 IS THE NEW BITCOIN. Now is absolutely the time for sheer panic fomo. Raid the cash mattress or take out a cenno advance, whatever it takes. This is most definitely financial advice. Put on a couple grand myself this week at average odds of 22/1.
Luv the form
Luv the inclusions
Luv the lack of chip chip play
Luv the finals football gamestyle
Luv finals footy umpiring
Luv the draw
Luv the tigs
Luv the degens
Simple as

I will elaborate further with more in depth analysis at a later time but the key message has been conferred.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

The Pies still $16 on betfair for the flag.

They play the Demons then the Swans (in Sydney).

If they were to win both, how far in do you think their odds would come?

Already into $9.5 following that win.

 

[iluvparis]

Already into $9.5 following that win.

Almost getting into lay territory. Luck will run out eventually

 

[NYRB]

Already into $9.5 following that win.

You spotted the value, im assuming you got on?

 

[mouncey2franklin]

You spotted the value, im assuming you got on?

No, I was drinking last night and forgot to put any bets on.

Also missed the Johnson train, farkn

 

[freo_leo29]

Pies have straight sets written all over them, will take out in the semi week when its available

(or just take a loss into a loss if odds don't look great)

 

[GROTTO]

Already into $9.5 following that win.

Into $7 on SB, which is arguably one of the big books for recreational "supporters/gamblers".

I think before the end of the weekend, they will shorten to around $5 to $6.

Pies supporters will start believing.

Their last two games are Swans and Blues.

I expect them to lose to the Swans and beat the Blues.

 

[Man of leisure]

Things we hear every year at around this time.
Lay territory

 

[dontlimitme]

dees still winning it all

 

[Man of leisure]

dees still winning it all

Forward line is cooked.
Backline is great at intercepting predictable bombs in or slow ball movement but can be found out against ******* ball movement like we saw from Collingwood.

 

[dontlimitme]

Forward line is cooked.
Backline is great at intercepting predictable bombs in or slow ball movement but can be found out against ******* ball movement like we saw from Collingwood.

and yet they'll still win it all

 

[dontlimitme]

i mean they lost against collingwood but if being "found out" means losing by 7 points after being up 3/4 quarters, +25 inside 50s +20 clearances and +22 in contested possessions then most teams would love to be found out every week with those stats. They won't win the majority of games vs melbourne if that happens, no teams will. But grats to the pies they have a dynamic team and dug deep. Still think the dees find it in september, agree the forward line is definitely missing a proper big key forward, they really do miss tmac

 

[iluvparis]

i mean they lost against collingwood but if being "found out" means losing by 7 points after being up 3/4 quarters, +25 inside 50s +20 clearances and +22 in contested possessions then most teams would love to be found out every week with those stats. They won't win the majority of games vs melbourne if that happens, no teams will. But grats to the pies they have a dynamic team and dug deep. Still think the dees find it in september, agree the forward line is definitely missing a proper big key forward, they really do miss tmac

Shit forward line had more scoring shots than team second on the ladder #cooked

They

will

walk

it

in

 

[dontlimitme]

s**t forward line had more scoring shots than team second on the ladder #cooked

They

will

walk

it

in

they are a victim of their own success, just because they haven't been winning every single game, and crushing opponents. After geelong loss they beat port, lost a close game to the dogs, smashed flagmantle who were supposed to be it a few weeks ago and then got pipped by collingwood after beating them in every stat imaginable and them going 15.6

 

[dontlimitme]

WALK
IT
IN

<3 paris

 

[Man of leisure]

i mean they lost against collingwood but if being "found out" means losing by 7 points after being up 3/4 quarters, +25 inside 50s +20 clearances and +22 in contested possessions then most teams would love to be found out every week with those stats.

If achieving statistical domination while managing to lose games is the metric by which we measure teams than Richmond is your flag favourite. Also Has not lost a game by more than 6 points in their last 14.

s**t forward line had more scoring shots than team second on the ladder #cooked

They

will

walk

it

in

The Dees have a dominant midfield and ruck division which guarantees an abundance of inside 50s.
Their forward line is shit.
Ben Brown= physically weak, pasty arm flapper.
Fritch= Selfish Jimmy Neutron campaigner.
Weideman= Hopeless
Spargo= meh
Neale-Bullen= 2 dads
Melksham=plodder
Pickett=alright

 

[dontlimitme]

If achieving statistical domination while managing to lose games is the metric by which we measure teams than Richmond is your flag favourite. Also Has not lost a game by more than 6 points in their last 14.

The Dees have a dominant midfield and ruck division which guarantees an abundance of inside 50s.
Their forward line is s**t.
Ben Brown= physically weak, pasty arm flapper.
Fritch= Selfish Jimmy Neutron campaigner.
Weideman= Hopeless
Spargo= meh
Neale-Bullen= 2 dads
Melksham=plodder
Pickett=alright

jimmy neutron campaigner is amazing

who you got to win it all

 

[GROTTO]

If achieving statistical domination while managing to lose games is the metric by which we measure teams than Richmond is your flag favourite. Also Has not lost a game by more than 6 points in their last 14.

The Dees have a dominant midfield and ruck division which guarantees an abundance of inside 50s.
Their forward line is s**t.
Ben Brown= physically weak, pasty arm flapper.
Fritch= Selfish Jimmy Neutron campaigner.
Weideman= Hopeless
Spargo= meh
Neale-Bullen= 2 dads
Melksham=plodder
Pickett=alright

Thats a fairly accurate account of the Dee's forward line.

I still have no idea how Fritsch kicked 6+ in a GF.

 

[iluvparis]

Thats a fairly accurate account of the Dee's forward line.

I still have no idea how Fritsch kicked 6+ in a GF.

Yeah I think it was generally seen he was the worst player to kick 5+ in a granny outside Shane Ellen.

 

[Man of leisure]

jimmy neutron campaigner is amazing

who you got to win it all

Richmond deadset

Plugged it into the algorithm and it turns out that RICHMOND FLAG 2022 IS THE NEW BITCOIN. Now is absolutely the time for sheer panic fomo. Raid the cash mattress or take out a cenno advance, whatever it takes. This is most definitely financial advice. Put on a couple grand myself this week at average odds of 22/1.
Luv the form
Luv the inclusions
Luv the lack of chip chip play
Luv the finals football gamestyle
Luv finals footy umpiring
Luv the draw
Luv the tigs
Luv the degens
Simple as

I will elaborate further with more in depth analysis at a later time but the key message has been conferred.

Even while being undermanned and having luck that could be considered the anti-collingwood. Richmond has not lost a game by more than a goal in their last 14. Injuries have also forced the belated moves of several key players to their rightful positions such as Balta and possibly Baker to the backline and also allowed for the emergence of other offensive weapons such as Cumberland and the continued improvement of Bolton. With the return of Martin for finals, this side will have more scoring power than any other and 3 players in the forward half that have at various points in recent history been considered the best player in the game: Lynch,Martin,Bolton.
With the advent of the pre-finals bye, I find it very likely that Richmond knocks over 4 sides in what is a very even and weak year. In past 3 while undermanned have drawn with Freo, beaten Brisbane and smashed a very decent Port side in Adelaide. The Tigers have no glaring weakness other than an inability to win close games and even that I’m sure has been ironed out in the past few weeks and will be further helped by the inclusion of stars returning from injury. I legitimately thing that with the natural improvement of players like Bolton and Rioli that if they were to be at full strength come finals time that this would be the strongest side that Richmond has fielded in the last 5 years.
Reasons why other sides won’t win are as follows.

Melbourne: Shit forward line and inability to defend unpredictable ball movement they will see from Collingwood and Richmond.

Geelong: don’t get to play finals at their home ground, which on one hand I think is pretty unfair but on the other, they were incapable of creating an oval shaped ground with adequate seating even with millions of dollars in government grants. Also chokers.

Fremantle: lack scoring power and ball movement to slow for finals football. Will struggle big time against Cats and Dees.

Collingwood: great coaching and ball movement. Could do well in finals depending on draw. Entertaining side to watch but have been very lucky at times, however credit must also be given for being clutch at the death. The big glaring weakness however is the backline. The key defenders will get torn apart by Hawkins/Cameron or Lynch/Riewoldt. Will beat Dees and Freo because they lack power forwards, so again, depending on draw they could do well.

Sydney: Good side but not quite ready. Need another 12 months into Logan and a couple others and they will be a big shot next year in Buddy’s final season.

 

[ferrisb]

As in all things measurement - the US way of showing odds is the worst ever invented

Careful, or NYRB will take his pound of flesh....

Sorry, his 453.592 grams of flesh...

 

[Macca180]

Might grab some Geelong at 2.80

Wont see this price again for a while.

 

[Jugada]

Surely the Cats (and Jezza) look after Jezza next week to help him get the Coleman. Taking on the Eagles at KP with top spot already sewn up and not much else to play for while the Blues take on the Pies