AFL AFL Futures 2023

[#23 Hill]

about 40% of wins in first month are from underdogs, runs at around 30% rest of season.

Good time to try and cash in on some decent odds.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

about 40% of wins in first month are from underdogs, runs at around 30% rest of season.

So basically four matches out of nine, compared to the usual three out of nine.

So one extra underdog win per round.

 

[TryAnHit]

One thing that happens every year is that there are always upsets galore in the early rounds.

Perfect got Brisbane early at +5.5 so technically will be an upset

 

[#23 Hill]

Perfect got Brisbane early at +5.5 so technically will be an upset

I was thinking more along the lines of head-to-head.

 

[Resarenco]

Isn't Sydney Making the 8 easy money?

 

[Kiddbrown]

Isn't Sydney Making the 8 easy money?

Teams that get pumped in a grand final have been falling off a cliff lately

 

[Resarenco]

Teams that get pumped in a grand final have been falling off a cliff lately

A grand final runner up has rarely ever missed the finals.

 

[apolis]

A grand final runner up has rarely ever missed the finals.

6 of the last 10 teams who lost by 40+ didn't make finals the next year.

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

6 of the last 10 teams who lost by 40+ didn't make finals the next year.

And would've been 7 of the last 10 if Carlton didn't choke and let the Dogs in last year

 

[GROTTO]

And would've been 7 of the last 10 if Carlton didn't choke and let the Dogs in last year

That was something for the ages, back to back chokes by Carlton in R22 and R23.

Extraordinary.

They were playing finals footy with 5mins left of the H&A season.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Worth a stab

 

[Areyoufireal]

Fremantle to win their first 6 games and Eagles to lose their first 6 games - $101 @ SB BYO

Freo (5th) play: Saints (10), North (18), WC (17), Crows (14), Suns (12), Dogs (8)
WC (17th) play: North (18), Giants (16), Freo (5), Melb (2), Cats (1), Port (11)

Freo will start fav for their 6 and WC will start outsiders for their 6.

Bet will be either be cooked by Sat arvo or port will chuck it in come round 6.

 

[iluvparis]

Fremantle to win their first 6 games and Eagles to lose their first 6 games - $101 @ SB BYO

Freo (5th) play: Saints (10), North (18), WC (17), Crows (14), Suns (12), Dogs (8)
WC (17th) play: North (18), Giants (16), Freo (5), Melb (2), Cats (1), Port (11)

Freo will start fav for their 6 and WC will start outsiders for their 6.

Bet will be either be cooked by Sat arvo or port will chuck it in come round 6.

How often is there a season with a 6-0 team and an 0-6 team?

 

[yamborghinidream]

Teams that get pumped in a grand final have been falling off a cliff lately

Do you know why this is or just repeating the media talking point?

Sydney will struggle this year because of their draw - as plenty of overachievers for a season do - it has nothing to do with getting thumped in a GF.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

How often is there a season with a 6-0 team and an 0-6 team?

3 of the last 9 (5 of last 11 if you include 2013 & 2012 - but those years involve hapless GWS & GC teams that couldn't win any games and gave autowins to everyone).

The bet is certainly better than Jeremy Cameron to kick 100+ at $31, or McStay to kick 80+ at $61, that's for sure.

Both teams were 5-1 & 1-5 after 6 rounds last year.

 

[burge13]

Probably get better odds betting Freo/wce opponent every round and rolling the winnings on

 

[dontlimitme]

Probably get better odds betting Freo/wce opponent every round and rolling the winnings on

this x 1000

 

[burge13]

this x 1000

Probably get 150+ that way. Plus a chance to take some profits as you go...

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Probably get 150+ that way. Plus a chance to take some profits as you go...

Yeah, I just multiplied $25 (the amount I bet on this fraud prop), by 1.60 (the average odds I imagine Freo will have for the first 6 games) x 6, and by 1.50 (average odds for WC opponents) x 6, and I got odds of almost $200.

Crazy how much you can turn $25 into from 12 straight chalky bets.

Ah well, I still feel it has some sort of shot of landing, and both teams may do so well/ so bad that the odds are even less that what is foreseen now.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Actually I have the odds coming out to about $77.

It makes a difference if the longer odds come earlier on, and the chalkier stuff is later, which it sort of is here.

Also, WC and Freo play each other, so there's only 11 opportunities to bet not 12.

What a ripping prop it is.

 

[Shueygod]

Actually I have the odds coming out to about $77.

It makes a difference if the longer odds come earlier on, and the chalkier stuff is later, which it sort of is here.

Also, WC and Freo play each other, so there's only 11 opportunities to bet not 12.

What a ripping prop it is.

Will fail round 1

 

[NonPhixion]

Yeah, I just multiplied $25 (the amount I bet on this fraud prop), by 1.60 (the average odds I imagine Freo will have for the first 6 games) x 6, and by 1.50 (average odds for WC opponents) x 6, and I got odds of almost $200.

Crazy how much you can turn $25 into from 12 straight chalky bets.

Ah well, I still feel it has some sort of shot of landing, and both teams may do so well/ so bad that the odds are even less that what is foreseen now.

its actually not bad. WC play Geel + Melb in R5 & R6. They both will be < $1.10

 

[Shueygod]

its actually not bad. WC play Geel + Melb in R5 & R6. They both will be < $1.10

WC will pump that retirement home.

 

[Jugada]

That's actually a decent prop. I wouldnt have the odds much more than than around 80 at the moment and obviously as Freo win and West Coast get beaten by teams like North and GWS the projected odds will move even further in your favour

 

[Shueygod]

West coast will genuinely run through North