AFL AFL Futures 2023

[NYRB]

Fremantle to win their first 6 games and Eagles to lose their first 6 games - $101 @ SB BYO

Freo (5th) play: Saints (10), North (18), WC (17), Crows (14), Suns (12), Dogs (8)
WC (17th) play: North (18), Giants (16), Freo (5), Melb (2), Cats (1), Port (11)

Freo will start fav for their 6 and WC will start outsiders for their 6.

Bet will be either be cooked by Sat arvo or port will chuck it in come round 6.

Just noticed Sportsbet have suspended that betting option.

But I agree with a poster its probably better to rollover those funds on a week by week basis if you think that will occur.

 

[AFDogs]

Laird $51 for Brownlow. That's juicy. Nobody taking votes from him at the Crows.

 

[iluvparis]

That's actually a decent prop. I wouldnt have the odds much more than than around 80 at the moment and obviously as Freo win and West Coast get beaten by teams like North and GWS the projected odds will move even further in your favour

$100 v $80 is pure noise though

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Laird $51 for Brownlow. That's juicy. Nobody taking votes from him at the Crows.

Apart from Walker and Keays that both beat him last season?

 

[Jugada]

$100 v $80 is pure noise though

Expect it would be closer to $50 once results started going the way they need to

Still much better than rolling it over each week and as far as these BYO markets go it is rare to find anything even fair value

 

[sohohoho]

probably got priced when Freo were PK vs STK, so stale off that move, which a lot of Freos stuff has become futures wise

 

[iluvparis]

Expect it would be closer to $50 once results started going the way they need to

Still much better than rolling it over each week and as far as these BYO markets go it is rare to find anything even fair value

Or it goes to $0 if results dont start going the way they need to.

$100 v $80 is not value - its noise

 

[Jugada]

Or it goes to $0 if results dont start going the way they need to.

$100 v $80 is not value - its noise

Um yeah same as if you rolled it over week by week... Results can only go one way for what the bet is so actual odds of rolling it over week by week would be around 50

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Or it goes to $0 if results dont start going the way they need to.

$100 v $80 is not value - its noise

How is something that's $100, but should be $80, not value?

It's 25% better odds than it should be.

It's no different than if something should be $2, but you can get it at $2.50.

That is what betting is all about my man.

 

[iluvparis]

Um yeah same as if you rolled it over week by week... Results can only go one way for what the bet is so actual odds of rolling it over week by week would be around 50

Ok - and even $50 v $100 is noise.

Like getting excited about getting $2 for a $1.96 shot

 

[iluvparis]

How is something that's $100, but should be $80, not value?

It's 25% better odds than it should be.

It's no different than if something should be $2, but you can get it at $2.50.

That is what betting is all about my man.

Fundamentally incorrect

$100 = 1% chance of winning
$80 = 1.25% chance of winning

$2 = 50% chance of winning
$2.50 = 40% chance of winning

One bet you are gaining a 10% edge; the other a 0.25% edge (no one is that good to price that accurately)

 

[Jugada]

Ok - and even $50 v $100 is noise.

Like getting excited about getting $2 for a $1.96 shot

Its perfectly fine. Its not the best value of all time but if you want to have a futures spec bet you will get a better return than backing each team H2H each round

 

[demon_fanatic]

Pointsbet Fogarty 26.00 for coleman in an improving side who plays attacking and he kicks so well,always injury concerns with LYNCH AND CAMERON... he finished last season off great to build a great platform. hes been crunched into 9.00 at tab

 

[sohohoho]

Pointsbet Fogarty 26.00 for coleman in an improving side who plays attacking and he kicks so well,always injury concerns with LYNCH AND CAMERON... he finished last season off great to build a great platform. hes been crunched into 9.00 at tab

$9 is the dumbest price in the world.

 

[X_box_X]

The steam continues. Into $6.25 favourite now.

I'm expecting him to be $1.90 within 24hrs.

 

[sohohoho]

Just noticed Sportsbet have suspended that betting option.

But I agree with a poster its probably better to rollover those funds on a week by week basis if you think that will occur.

rolling over looks much better at a closer look, 100% price is way above 100/1 and likely any momentum in ratings won't get it below 100/1 imo

 

[sohohoho]

The steam continues. Into $6.25 favourite now.

I'm expecting him to be $1.90 within 24hrs.

View attachment 1629537

Topsport completely broken

 

[X_box_X]

Topsport completely broken

I know why they do it, though.

Tristan has previously gone on record in saying he will use superior odds from another bookmaker to cover the bets. I.e. If someone is silly enough to take the $6.25, they'll use the highest available odds elsewhere to not only balance their books, but to generate revenue.

 

[NYRB]

rolling over looks much better at a closer look, 100% price is way above 100/1 and likely any momentum in ratings won't get it below 100/1 imo

Your right and @ Jugada. if Dockers go on a 4-0 run and Eagles go on a 0-4 run, the Dockers odds in Round 5 wont be at pre-season expectation.

Right now Id have Dockers about $1.49 to beat Gold Coast in Round 5, and about $1.75 to beat Bulldogs in Round 6.

Alot can happen between now and then.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

rolling over looks much better at a closer look, 100% price is way above 100/1 and likely any momentum in ratings won't get it below 100/1 imo

Freo: Saints - Away ($1.60), North - Home ($1.15), WC - Neutral ($1.20), Crows - Away ($1.80), Suns - Neutral ($1.65), Dogs - Home ($1.65)
WC: NM - Home ($1.80), Giants - Away ($1.60), --, Melb - Home ($1.15), Geel - Neutral ($1.15), Port - Away ($1.60)

That's actually $66 odds. I didn't realise that Gather Round meant Freo would be playing WB at home, and WC would be playing Port away because of it.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

I know why they do it, though.

Tristan has previously gone on record in saying he will use superior odds from another bookmaker to cover the bets. I.e. If someone is silly enough to take the $6.25, they'll use the highest available odds elsewhere to not only balance their books, but to generate revenue.

So they balance their books by betting with soft books?

Is that even possible?

 

[X_box_X]

So they balance their books by betting with soft books?

Is that even possible?

Well BF had the price at $21 at the time I posted. They certainly ain't a soft book.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Well BF had the price at $21 at the time I posted. They certainly ain't a soft book.

Yeah, but there's never any real volume on BF for those type of markets.

I can't see how they could expect to cover the amount of risk that would cause something to come in from ~$30 to ~$6, with someone like BF who has had a total of $150 traded on the selection (amount showed as traded is always double what there actually has been) since the market was opened.

 

[NYRB]

Freo: Saints - Away ($1.60), North - Home ($1.15), WC - Neutral ($1.20), Crows - Away ($1.80), Suns - Neutral ($1.65), Dogs - Home ($1.65)
WC: NM - Home ($1.80), Giants - Away ($1.60), --, Melb - Home ($1.15), Geel - Neutral ($1.15), Port - Away ($1.60)

That's actually $66 odds. I didn't realise that Gather Round meant Freo would be playing WB at home, and WC would be playing Port away because of it.

I think West Coast has one of the easier draws in 2023. I also think the gap between West Coast and Fremantle will be closer this year. Dockers lost alot of good players in the off-season and I mentioned this on another forum (Whirlpool), that they could be the slider this season for me. Freo should start the derby in Rd 3 as favourite and Id be interested in a play on Eagles to win in that round, provided the odds and having a look at the games both play in the first couple of rounds.


But that $101 posted earlier is a play based on momentum and how much the odds would be crunched in, if those teams happen to get to a Round 4 , 5 or 6 unbeaten. I also noticed now Sportsbet have that up at $81.

 

[sohohoho]

Well BF had the price at $21 at the time I posted. They certainly ain't a soft book.

$33 been traded on him at that price, doubt anyone but TAB are letting them bet back sport.