AFL Futures

[spudmaster]

They're listed as separate sub-markets though?

I was wondering as well whether the bets were too 'similar', and obviously you can't have two different teams from the same market in the one multi, ie. brisbane+GC to miss top 8, but are you sure they won't accept the one above?

Technically, I guess the outcome of one of the legs would affect the outcome of another, simply because if a team misses the 8 then it is more likely the remaining teams would make the 8 and so forth.

Oh nevermind, found the error just by re-reading it!
GC for spoon + GC winless. Duh!
Would there be an issue with the first lot, however? Or can you not have 'to make top 8' multi with 'to miss top 8'

 

[spudmaster]

Ah yup, fair enoughski.
It had a good ol' whinge when I went to place it

Thanks fellas

Must admit, for someone who punts a fair bit I haven't ran into that issue before, probably as a result of most multi's being between sports rather than within. Within-a-round ones are easy enough to spot when you've been naughty, too.

Looks like I'll stick to the quinella/brownlow/coleman stuff. (I do like the look of the Saints to make top8 though...that looks juicy).

 

[Borgsta]

yes big issue. even top vic team and top 4/8

 

[The_Doctor]

What i was thinking was no GC player will get a brownlow vote this year so i back Ablett at $301 and then if its a tie for zero votes it will be divided by 12 so i then have odds of $25. Does that make any sense?

 

[The_Doctor]

I was just wondering how Centrebets most team votes for the brownlow works. Is it only between the 12 or so people listed? Say if i back Nathan Ablett to win GCs and no GC player gets a vote then is the dividend divided by 12 as they are all tied on zero points?

Just a thought i had as GC should get thumped in every match.

 

[Kahuna]

What i was thinking was no GC player will get a brownlow vote this year so i back Ablett at $301 and then if its a tie for zero votes it will be divided by 12 so i then have odds of $25. Does that make any sense?

Sorry I misread your opening post.

It's a good question.

 

[Kahuna]

I was just wondering how Centrebets most team votes for the brownlow works. Is it only between the 12 or so people listed? Say if i back Nathan Ablett to win GCs and no GC player gets a vote then is the dividend divided by 12 as they are all tied on zero points?

Just a thought i had as GC should get thumped in every match.

I think that they would open a market up for Nathan Ablett after he has a few good games. Highly doubtful that a player could go so much under the radar that Centrebet don't even open a market for that player.

 

[Sasquatch]

What i was thinking was no GC player will get a brownlow vote this year so i back Ablett at $301 and then if its a tie for zero votes it will be divided by 12 so i then have odds of $25. Does that make any sense?

Sounds clear to me.

 

[The_Doctor]

What i was thinking was no GC player will get a brownlow vote this year so i back Ablett at $301 and then if its a tie for zero votes it will be divided by 12 so i then have odds of $25. Does that make any sense?

 

[Pinnell]

For those in the Most goal mulit's you'll be pleased to know that Le Cra is back in action tomorrow night. Not in many of mine, but is in the BIG ones. Now, we just need Pav to go back to the forward line where he belongs..

 

[Dr Awkward]

Le Cras is back baby!

Forget about Pav mate. He is gooone.

 

[True North]

Backing Essendon top 4 & 8

Laying Melbourne 8 for more.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Backing Essendon top 4 & 8

Laying Melbourne 8 for more.

Yep good bets lay the sh*t out of Melbourne, I layed them at $2 at the start of the season. Not much value for Essendon though.

Lay Adelaide while you're at it, although they might win this week.

Freo to make the top 4 at $2.7 is pretty good odds imo. Pretty soft draw coming up, 4 wins already team looking pretty good.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Fremantle to win the minor premiership @ $34.00 looks good value.

 

[Holy Foley!]

Pendlebury brownlow @ $9 looks good

 

[True North]

Yep good bets lay the sh*t out of Melbourne, I layed them at $2 at the start of the season. Not much value for Essendon though.

Lay Adelaide while you're at it, although they might win this week.

Freo to make the top 4 at $2.7 is pretty good odds imo. Pretty soft draw coming up, 4 wins already team looking pretty good.

I layed the Crows for plenty pre season, between $1.99 & $ 1.86 I think I took every early lay on Betfair preseason. Sad thing was the more I layed them for the more people were willing to back them at shorter odds lol. I reached my cap for the bet and people wanted $1.84 by then. I'm still slightly worried though. The Swans don't look much so tonights Saints/Crows game is a biggie. The other 7 spots in the 8 are pretty much locked in imo.

Essendon the 8 are slight Unders, they are decent value the 4 though. They will be sitting somewhere inside the 4 by mid season and can be layed for a profit later on.

Melbourne won't make the 8 and value is not there until they beat the Crows next week. I layed them preseason between $1.96 - $1.98 and again Thursday night @ $2.28

Freo Top 4 is solid, they are off to a flier which is super important. There are only 2 spots available though (Cats/Pies are locks) so I think waiting another week or 2 will still allow you to get the $2.70.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

I've managed to restrain myself until now, but I can't bear it any longer...

I've got Lindsay Thomas as an anchor in most of my Centrebet 'Most Goals Per Team' multis, and he is KILLING me.

Last three weeks:

0.6
0.3
1.6

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[twarby]

I've managed to restrain myself until now, but I can't bear it any longer...

I've got Lindsay Thomas as an anchor in most of my Centrebet 'Most Goals Per Team' multis, and he is KILLING me.

Last three weeks:

0.6
0.3
1.6

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

bet on him to kick more behinds than goals, $$$

 

[adii_7]

l thomas is a freak.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

bet on him to kick more behinds than goals, $$$

 

[Dr Awkward]

I layed the Crows for plenty pre season, between $1.99 & $ 1.86 I think I took every early lay on Betfair preseason. Sad thing was the more I layed them for the more people were willing to back them at shorter odds lol. I reached my cap for the bet and people wanted $1.84 by then. I'm still slightly worried though. The Swans don't look much so tonights Saints/Crows game is a biggie. The other 7 spots in the 8 are pretty much locked in imo.

Essendon the 8 are slight Unders, they are decent value the 4 though. They will be sitting somewhere inside the 4 by mid season and can be layed for a profit later on.

Melbourne won't make the 8 and value is not there until they beat the Crows next week. I layed them preseason between $1.96 - $1.98 and again Thursday night @ $2.28

Freo Top 4 is solid, they are off to a flier which is super important. There are only 2 spots available though (Cats/Pies are locks) so I think waiting another week or 2 will still allow you to get the $2.70.

I dont think you have to worry about Adelaide making it mate.

We have:

Collingwood
Geelong
Carlton
Freo
Hawthorn
Essendon
Bulldogs

That's 7,
Then
Sydney
St Kilda
West Coast
Melbourne

11

In my pecking order, Adelaide comes after that at about 12th. Only 1 win from 4 matches, pretty softish draw but overall very confident they won't make it, not enough midfield depth/class and too many injuries interrupting their season.

Not to mention some of the other teams below them like Richmond and North are decent.

 

[Athomas]

Crows have a super draw and are massively underrated.

Between them and Sydney for 8th imo.

 

[half_back_flank]

Le Cras has been put up at 4.00 to win Eagles goalkicking.

His injury set back is going to anchor him to the forwardline and only has 8 goals to make up on Kennedy and co.

Well over the odds.

 

[Athomas]

Good call, I like free money call.

I took Crameri last week at $14 for Essendon's, now into $10. Now leading for them.

He's also $201 for the coleman at centrebet, but $26 at Sportsbet. Bit of a gap. I could see him in the top 3 at the end of the year so if Buddy/Volt go down he could be next in line.

 

[half_back_flank]

Crameri at $10 is still a pretty good bet imo.

going down the list of odds:

ZAHARAKIS - Won't be a permenant forward, should spend some time in the middle this year or at least as a high half forward flanker.
RYDER, P - Going to spend time rotating in the ruck.
HURLEY - Spending alot of time back, which should continue while Bellchambers, Ryder and Hille are in the same team.
MONFRIES - One dimentional HFFer who will be lucky to kick over 30 goals this year.
WATSON - Best midfielder who won't spend enough time resting forward.
REIMERS - Flat track bully, too inconsistant to play the whole year in the seniors.

He is a good chance i think, worth a punt in what looks to be a very close contest. Question marks on whether he can continue this form however good signs so far.