AFL Futures

[Lyyynnnchy]

Top goal kickers for those of you that got on the team multis. Some of the guys in bold shouldnt be there but I have added them as they are in some of my multis.

Adelaide - Walker - 6, Dangerfield - 4
Brisbane - Polkinghorne - 4, Power - 4, Banfield - 4, Brown - 3, Clarke - 3, Redden - 3
Carlton - Garlett - 10, Walker - 7, Betts - 6, Thornton - 5, Waite - 4
Collingwood - Blair - 10, Cloke - 9, Dawes - 9
Essendon - Hurley - 7, Winderlich - 6, Watson - 6, Ryder - 6
Fremantle - Bradley - 5, Mayne - 5, Walters - 4, Ballantyne - 3, Pavlich - 1
Geelong - Menzel - 5, Duncan - 5
Gold Coast - Stanley - 3, Dixon - 2, Bennel - 2, Matera - 2
Hawthorn - Franklin - 9, Burgoyne - 8, Roughead - 7
Melbourne - Jurrah - 9, Dunn - 5, Green - 4
North Melbourne - Thomas - 6, Hansen - 3, Edwards - 3
Port Adelaide - Gray - 6, Westhoff - 5, Thomas - 3
Richmond - Riewoldt - 7, King - 4, Vickery - 4
St Kilda - Riewoldt - 7, Milne - 6, Steven - 2
Sydney - McGlynn - 8, Bolton - 7, White - 6
West Coast - Embley - 6, Lynch - 5, Shuey - 5, Kennedy - 5, Lecras - 2
Western Bulldogs - Barry Hall - 10, Josh Hill - 4

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Hrrmm mine are looking pretty average with Waite and Pav needing to fire as well as Brown and Lecras when they return.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Ill go again at Riewoldt into the Pies. I just think $6.50 is really good odds for jack. He hasnt been given a chance the last two weeks, the week before he played a full minute before crawling off and last week a combination of the rain and the week after a big knock really wasnt in his favour. Really annoyed I didnt back Jobe last week in the B'low!! dammit!. $13 is too short for me, I think jimmy bartel is still good value at $31 though. Ive got him at $81 and $50 and now that I have some money after the weekend i might just have another go at the $31 into the pies.

 

[mike262]

Just noticed sportingbet have a market for the suns winning a game this season.

The Yes they will win a game option is paying $2.25.

Its got me thinking of a potential no loss situation. (I have probably missed something really obvious though.)

For example if you placed $100 on them to win a game this season @ 2.25. (Potential profit of $125)

Then starting from this week against Melbourne, you place that potential profit of $125 on Melbourne to beat the GC (currently $1.15) This would give you a profit of around $18.75, a total balance of $143.75.

As long as after 24 rounds of GC losing games you have more than $225 as a balance, you cannot turn a loss.

Just some food for thought....

Edit: Just did a rough projection of future odds over the rest of the season for the GC matches and this is what i ended up with.

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/2528/goldcoastprojections.png

This even carries to potential to back against the Suns into the latter of the season and if you think they will pinch a win somewhere towards the end, stop backing against them and cash out already ahead (with a potential of more money if they win a game and you collect the initial $225)

This actually seems really good. 100 at 2.25

then 100 on melb at 1.18, i
f melb win you could even roll the 118 onto the next game.

Might do this. Only danger i can see is a draw

 

[Didak_attack]

This actually seems really good. 100 at 2.25

then 100 on melb at 1.18, i
f melb win you could even roll the 118 onto the next game.

Might do this. Only danger i can see is a draw

Yep the draw is a worry for me aswell of course. atleast you still get over 50% back should it happen. Was going to check if centrebet offer +.5 on melbourne with pick your own line. Or put $2.50-$3 on the draw each week.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

This has been smashed into 1.95. Still worth it? I'll do some sums when I get home, with a draw bet included.

 

[asanque]

Got on Buddy at $6 at the start of the season. $4 is still good odds, I reckon he should be about even money. Only contenders are Riewoldt, who is a massive chance, and Hall who is a bit of a chance, and then the rest of the market can go home.

Where did you get $6?

I was tracking this from the NAB Cup and the best I ever saw was $5.25.

 

[asanque]

Top goal kickers for those of you that got on the team multis. Some of the guys in bold shouldnt be there but I have added them as they are in some of my multis.

Adelaide - Walker - 6, Dangerfield - 4
Brisbane - Polkinghorne - 4, Power - 4, Banfield - 4, Brown - 3, Clarke - 3, Redden - 3
Carlton - Garlett - 10, Walker - 7, Betts - 6, Thornton - 5, Waite - 4
Collingwood - Blair - 10, Cloke - 9, Dawes - 9
Essendon - Hurley - 7, Winderlich - 6, Watson - 6, Ryder - 6
Fremantle - Bradley - 5, Mayne - 5, Walters - 4, Ballantyne - 3, Pavlich - 1
Geelong - Menzel - 5, Duncan - 5
Gold Coast - Stanley - 3, Dixon - 2, Bennel - 2, Matera - 2
Hawthorn - Franklin - 9, Burgoyne - 8, Roughead - 7
Melbourne - Jurrah - 9, Dunn - 5, Green - 4
North Melbourne - Thomas - 6, Hansen - 3, Edwards - 3
Port Adelaide - Gray - 6, Westhoff - 5, Thomas - 3
Richmond - Riewoldt - 7, King - 4, Vickery - 4
St Kilda - Riewoldt - 7, Milne - 6, Steven - 2
Sydney - McGlynn - 8, Bolton - 7, White - 6
West Coast - Embley - 6, Lynch - 5, Shuey - 5, Kennedy - 5, Lecras - 2
Western Bulldogs - Barry Hall - 10, Josh Hill - 4

Thanks for the list

I'm a bit concerned that Goodes isn't in the Sydney list (although I have a saver on McGlynn).

Pavlich is also a concern (although I have a saver on Mayne).

Still very early days anyway

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Pav's only 4 behind, 1 big game from him and he'll hit the front.

But yeah still very early days. I think Pav and Lecras will still win Freos and West Coasts with Brown a chance to take out Brisbanes. Would love for Clark to take out Brisbanes though

I really like

Adelaide - Walker
Essendon - Hurley
Hawthorn - Franklin
Melbourne - Jurrah
Richmond - J Riewoldt
St Kilda - N Riewoldt

Excluding injuries they are looking very good

This one would be nice

7 Leg Multi
Richmond Most Goals RIEWOLDT,... @ 1.53 (Win)
St Kilda Most Goals RIEWOLDT,... @ 1.95 (Win)
Hawthorn Most Goals FRANKLIN,... @ 1.75 (Win)
Brisbane Most Goals CLARK, M ... @ 11.00 (Win)
Fremantle Most Goals PAVLICH, ... @ 1.95 (Win)
Essendon Most Goals HURLEY, M... @ 8.00 (Win)
Western Bulldogs Most Goals HALL, B @ 1.60 (Win)

Combined Dividend: 1433.512
Potential Payout: 14335.12

 

[Lakey91]

You can get Collingwood for top Vic team at $2.15 and minor premiership winner at $1.72 at sportingbet.

Careful. I am prettty sure that "top vic team" on sportingbet includes finals, whereas at the bookmaker quoted earlier, it didnt.

 

[DogCatcher]

Just quietly, if their was a watson brownlow/watson allan border medal double i would be all over that in a second.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Pav's only 4 behind, 1 big game from him and he'll hit the front.

But yeah still very early days. I think Pav and Lecras will still win Freos and West Coasts

Surely Le Cras won't win West Coast's isn't he out for about 9 weeks and then he might take a couple of matches to get fit. He was playing a fair bit in the midfield as well. Absolutely kicking myslef that I put him in some multis, it's going to cost me a few grand.

Very worried about Pav...

 

[Dr Awkward]

Where did you get $6?

I was tracking this from the NAB Cup and the best I ever saw was $5.25.

Betfair. He was actually matched right up to $7.

 

[Pinnell]

Surely Le Cras won't win West Coast's isn't he out for about 9 weeks and then he might take a couple of matches to get fit. He was playing a fair bit in the midfield as well. Absolutely kicking myslef that I put him in some multis, it's going to cost me a few grand.

Very worried about Pav...

LE Cras may be back in round 7 according to the latest news. Still some hope provided Kennedy is kept quiet....

Its not getting out of hand over at Freo, but I will feel a whole lot more comfortable when I see Pav in the goal square rather that the centre square.

Still pretty confident about Waite. Missed Rd 1 effectively, so some ground to make up, but Gartlett is a major threat - forget about Betts. Still looking for the return of Henderson so that Waite can stay at home a bit more... A nice bag of 5-6 one day soon would be nice, but likely Waite will just keep kicking his 2-3 game.

Quite pleased with the starts that Taylor Walker and Hurley have made. Petrie needs to get amongst it over the next few weeks..

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Surely Le Cras won't win West Coast's isn't he out for about 9 weeks and then he might take a couple of matches to get fit. He was playing a fair bit in the midfield as well. Absolutely kicking myslef that I put him in some multis, it's going to cost me a few grand.

Very worried about Pav...

Most recently they have been saying the game after the bye. Byes in Round 6 so thats only 2 more games. I think thats a bit optimistic so say he is back in 5 games, he shouldnt be further than 15 goals behind in which case I think he could still win it. He should come back straight into the team and imo will be playing deep in the forward line to help with his conditioning.

Embley will only add a few more goals to his tally. Lynch will kick 1 or 2 a game and Kennedy who is 3 ahead now will kick an average of 2 a game.

 

[abs_of_STEELE]

Most recently they have been saying the game after the bye. Byes in Round 6 so thats only 2 more games.

I thought WCE had their bye in round 5? Could be wrong, but that's what I thought.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I thought WCE had their bye in round 5? Could be wrong, but that's what I thought.

You're right. In that case they have him down as a chance of missing only 1 more game. I doubt it though and would expect him to miss the next 4 or 5.

 

[smashing]

I thought WCE had their bye in round 5? Could be wrong, but that's what I thought.

yeah the bye is definitely round 5.

 

[Kahuna]

I really think Brown will win the goal kicking for Brisbane.

Just stuck in a bit of a conumdrum.

Currently he is $2.20 and will be out for a few weeks yet one would assume.

No one else is kicking goals though so he is only one goal behind after round 3.

Do I take the $2.20 now or do I risk it and say after round 8 where the highest goal scorer has 15 goals and Browns odds would be $1.50 at a guess. Arghhh

 

[adii_7]

take it.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I think he would be more than $2.20. Maybe thats my opinion or maybe I just want to disagree with ALDI!

 

[Kahuna]

Hahaha,

I think I will leave it for a couple of weeks with Brisbane having the bye this week. At $2.20 its probably not worth it considering the 20 weeks I will have to wait to claim.

 

[laam]

http://www.bettingnews.com.au/betti...suns-backed-to-win-a-game-during-2011-season/

if anyone backed it, now is the time to lock in the profit

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I really think Brown will win the goal kicking for Brisbane.

Just stuck in a bit of a conumdrum.

Currently he is $2.20 and will be out for a few weeks yet one would assume.

No one else is kicking goals though so he is only one goal behind after round 3.

Do I take the $2.20 now or do I risk it and say after round 8 where the highest goal scorer has 15 goals and Browns odds would be $1.50 at a guess. Arghhh

From the Brisbane board it looks like he'll be back in round 9 having missed the 7 games.

Apparantley Brown has been training and can start full training except for full contact training which he can start in 4 weeks. Should be good for Brisbanes leading goal kicker you'd think.

 

[horj89]

I got on Jobe Watson for the Brownlow after round 1 when he was at $31. Glad I did after seeing he is currently dropped to under $10. He easily could have 7-8 votes at the moment. Hopefully his good form continues.