AFL Futures

[KardiniaPark]

Bet of the week: Grand Final Quinella Collingwood vs West Coast, $12 is the best odds I found (Sportingbet).

This isn't so much a bet for what you think will happen, as what must happen first. Collingwood will play West Coast at the MCG in week one, barring calamity.

Let's take the less likely outcome first: West Coast wins, hosts a prelim, and Collingwood is huge favourite to come through the other half of the draw. Suddenly the odds are about $2.30.

Now the more likely one: Collingwood wins, West Coast starts big favourite to wipe some random team at home and makes the prelim. They might be $3.50 - $4 or so against a Hawthorn or Geelong in that prelim, but you're looking at odds of $5 - $6 overall for the quinella.

It's basically a quirk of the final 8: 1 & 4 always go to opposite sides of the draw. When you look at West Coast $5.50 to make the GF (even that is a little generous I reckon), and you know Collingwood is always on the other side of the draw, how does Collingwood vs West Coast blow out to $12?

How do they blow out? Because they have no chance of beating Geelong or Hawthorn in Melbourne.

 

[Rourke]

It's basically a quirk of the final 8: 1 & 4 always go to opposite sides of the draw. When you look at West Coast $5.50 to make the GF (even that is a little generous I reckon), and you know Collingwood is always on the other side of the draw, how does Collingwood vs West Coast blow out to $12?

How do they blow out? Because they have no chance of beating Geelong or Hawthorn in Melbourne.

Hmmm, no chance? They beat Geelong in Perth and ran Hawthorn to a goal in Launceston, I reckon $3.50 to $4 was a fair guess at where they would start.

I was just pointing out that $5.50 for West Coast to make the GF multiplied by $1.35 for Collingwood equals $7.40 or so, not $12, even though they are guaranteed to be on opposite sides just like the top two seeds in a tennis draw. $12 is massive value because you can lay against it for $$$ come prelim final time

 

[KardiniaPark]

A home final for WC doesn't automatically mean they win it. Saints/Carlton/Swans are more than capable of beating them over there.

I think Haw/Col Quin @$3.50 if a far better bet and you wont have to dive around trying to get skininy skinny odds trying to cover your WC bet.

 

[Borgsta]

Agree with KP. Your bet is done with the full intention to cover so its basically an arb hope but there is no guarantee that it will even be possible.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I agree w/Borgsta that I am also in agreeance with myself.

 

[Rourke]

Agree with KP. Your bet is done with the full intention to cover so its basically an arb hope but there is no guarantee that it will even be possible.

OK I've been doing this quinella bet most years for about a decade (either 1v4 or 2v3 depending on the value). There is no risk, and you can decide how much to let ride when you see the market. It always works, but if you don't see the $12 as value I suppose all I can do is move on ... cheers ...

 

[KardiniaPark]

How much money have you lost over that 10 years

Go nuts if it works for you, its just not something I can see the value in.

 

[Borgsta]

So what did you take last year? and how did you make the money?

 

[Lensen]

Triple M Footy
Essendon forward Stewart Crameri will undergo surgery on his injured shoulder and miss the rest of the season. Does this mean Hurley will play exclusively up forward now?


annoying

 

[KardiniaPark]

Isn't it Zaharakis you have to worry about? Hurley can't be close can he?

 

[Lensen]

the crameri out bit is what I was referring too

 

[DTShowtime]

Another 3 votes to Swan.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Another 3 votes to Swan.

Who gets the 1?

 

[Vince Masuka]

There is another price that intrigues me.

Gold Coast Wooden Spoon @ 4.50

I don't see Gold Coast winning another game all year. This then leaves it up to Port Adelaide to win one.

I see it coming down to the last game of the year for them against Melbourne at home.

So in my eyes it really is Port paying 4.50 for that game as we stand right now. Should they start shorter than that? Of course they should, and will.

Melbourne will not start 1.24 at AAMI vs Port.

I am already on GC at even money, so will add:

GC Wooden Spoon
5 units @ 4.50

I guess with essendon playing like fools, it is not too early to start to cheer for Port to lock this up a week out!

 

[Dr Awkward]

Bet of the week: Grand Final Quinella Collingwood vs West Coast, $12 is the best odds I found (Sportingbet).

This isn't so much a bet for what you think will happen, as what must happen first. Collingwood will play West Coast at the MCG in week one, barring calamity.

Let's take the less likely outcome first: West Coast wins, hosts a prelim, and Collingwood is huge favourite to come through the other half of the draw. Suddenly the odds are about $2.30.

Now the more likely one: Collingwood wins, West Coast starts big favourite to wipe some random team at home and makes the prelim. They might be $3.50 - $4 or so against a Hawthorn or Geelong in that prelim, but you're looking at odds of $5 - $6 overall for the quinella.

It's basically a quirk of the final 8: 1 & 4 always go to opposite sides of the draw. When you look at West Coast $5.50 to make the GF (even that is a little generous I reckon), and you know Collingwood is always on the other side of the draw, how does Collingwood vs West Coast blow out to $12?

West Coast will probably get done by Carlton second week of the finals.

Good to see Crameri get up

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

West Coast will probably get done by Carlton second week of the finals.

Good to see Crameri get up

Didn't we work out last week that this market includes finals, so the bet is not home and hosed yet?

 

[carpsi]

West Coast will probably get done by Carlton second week of the finals.

Good to see Crameri get up

Carlton have to get through Essendon first

 

[Ferris_rules]

Carlton have to get through Essendon first

If I am not mistaken history suggests the losers in week1 of the finals tend to win more often than not in week2?

I can see the Eagles pushing the Pies for about 3 qtrs?

 

[Jonts]

Butcher for 2012 Coleman?

What would his odds be, know he's a bit early but still I gotta hope in something

 

[blue_boys]

Didn't we work out last week that this market includes finals, so the bet is not home and hosed yet?

That's what I thought. So he is up by 3 goals on Zaharakis with hopefully one match to go! Going to go down to the wire!

 

[Damarus]

Good to see Crameri get up

Not yet unfortunately... The most goals bet encompasses finals. Need Zaka to score 2 or less next weekend and the Bombers to lose!

EDIT: Whoops didn't notice there was one more page to the thread.

 

[CamTinley]

I need Essendon to beat Carlton and for Hurley to reel in the field by kicking 7 minimum over 2 matches or more .

My preseason Most Team Goals multi was ...

JRiewoldt (Rich) @ $1.53 x
BHall (WB) @ $1.65 x
JSchulz (PTA) @ $5.00 x
DPetrie (NM) @ 5.75 x
MHurley (Ess) @ 8.00 =

$580.63

 

[Damarus]

I need Essendon to beat Carlton and for Hurley to reel in the field by kicking 7 minimum over 2 matches or more .

My preseason Most Team Goals multi was ...

JRiewoldt (Rich) @ $1.53 x
BHall (WB) @ $1.65 x
JSchulz (PTA) @ $5.00 x
DPetrie (NM) @ 5.75 x
MHurley (Ess) @ 8.00 =

$580.63

Not worried that Gray is currently 1 ahead of Schultz?

 

[CamTinley]

Not worried that Gray is currently 1 ahead of Schultz?

Yes, I wasn't expecting 6 from Gray. That Port race will be close.

 

[Rourke]

So what did you take last year? and how did you make the money?

Just found the spreadsheet. Last year I backed the quinella Collingwood vs Bulldogs (1st vs 4th) at $24 on Betfair before Qualifying Final - if you recall, Bulldogs' form had collapsed. Then in Prelim Final week I laid them at $9.80, probably could've got better if I waited. The other way to do it is to back the two PF opponents (if you can find better odds elsewhere). The really complicated way is to back the SF opponent as well, but we know the success rate of the bottom four in the last ten years and somehow people keep avoiding the top four loser ...