AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Think you might be underestimating the kind of young talent Brisbane currently has at its disposal due to the father-son rule. We're literally just entering the Ashcroft bros era right now. Both generational talents, both capable of winning the Brownlow in the future and one is already a Norm Smith medallist as well as a premiership player. The Sandringham Footy Club confirmed in October that Marcus, his wife and their daughter are moving back to Queensland so the Ashcrofts will be very settled up here for the long-term and I'm sure it will show on the footy field over the next decade.

You can throw their third young father-son pick Jaspa Fletcher into that mix as well because he's already shown he's a very good footballer by taking part in Brisbane's premiership winning midfield last year. Neale is 31 right now so he'll start to drop off over the next few years but that should be supplemented with the rise of the Ashcroft boys. I'd be very surprised if Brisbane aren't playing finals/legitimately contending for flags for at least another three years. The father-son rule has basically allowed them to avoid the natural drop off that would eventually come with a team that's already had their premiership window open for multiple years.

The AFL has also seen how good it's been for the growth of the game to have a highly competitive Brisbane side so I suspect they'll prioritise them in certain ways going forward in order to continue growing the game up here. Might ruffle a few feathers by suggesting this, but I think the last few years have shown a highly competitive Brisbane side grows the game more than a highly competitive Sydney side. I'm fairly sure the comparison of participation rates between NSW & QLD over the last five or so years proves that. The AFL appear to be getting more bang for buck in Queensland at the moment.

we here this about every side. It’s like Richmond supporters talking about Balta and Bolton and how they had 5 top 30 picks 4-5 years ago. It’s seriously guess work.
Teams like North are stacked with young talent, teams like Brisbane, have strong youth like about half of the rest of the comp. It’s nothing special where you would just assume future success.

 

[GC2015]

we here this about every side. It’s like Richmond supporters talking about Balta and Bolton and how they had 5 top 30 picks 4-5 years ago. It’s seriously guess work.
Teams like North are stacked with young talent, teams like Brisbane, have strong youth like about half of the rest of the comp. It’s nothing special where you would just assume future success.

To be fair, neither Balta or Bolton have won a Norm Smith Medal or were top 5 picks. Nothing is guaranteed and we've seen plenty of high end picks not live up to the hype, but I think it's pretty obvious that Will Ashcroft is going to be a top 10 player in the league in the future (injuries permitting) and there's every indication right now that Levi Ashcroft is heading for the same type of career.

Don't get me wrong, Balta and Bolton are great players but I think there's only a small percentage of players that are really in that absolute top echelon that I think we'll see the Ashcroft boys enter that realm in the future. The Dusty Martins of the world, if you will. Brisbane struck gold twice with the father-son rule in a mere 24 months and I firmly believe it's going to keep them in the finals picture for the short-to-medium term. Success tends to breed future success and the Lions shouldn't have too much trouble filling holes along the way through the use of free agency / trading ala Joe Daniher and Josh Dunkley.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

To be fair, neither Balta or Bolton have won a Norm Smith Medal or were top 5 picks. Nothing is guaranteed and we've seen plenty of high end picks not live up to the hype, but I think it's pretty obvious that Will Ashcroft is going to be a top 10 player in the league in the future (injuries permitting) and there's every indication right now that Levi Ashcroft is heading for the same type of career.

Don't get me wrong, Balta and Bolton are great players but I think there's only a small percentage of players that are really in that absolute top echelon that I think we'll see the Ashcroft boys enter that realm in the future. The Dusty Martins of the world, if you will. Brisbane struck gold twice with the father-son rule in a mere 24 months and I firmly believe it's going to keep them in the finals picture for the short-to-medium term. Success tends to breed future success and the Lions shouldn't have too much trouble filling holes along the way through the use of free agency / trading ala Joe Daniher and Josh Dunkley.

They weren’t but they were expected to be stars.
Brisbane still may have to build an entire spine. If you look at their B&f then it’s likely only 2 of the top 10 will likely still be there by the time the stadium is finished. I’ll be shocked if they have more then half a dozen current players still best 22 by then.

 

[Walshawk]

What's the number you'd be happy with?

Because four of the Giants' eight H&A Engie games had record crowds against respective opponents in 2024.

They're clearly trending in the direction.

Given they averaged 13k in 2017, three seasons in a row over 15k would show some growth. But they have only ever had five non Swans in season games over 15k, so can anyone really see that happening? Overall AFL crowds have grown by 10% since then and the Giants have made no progress at all.

I would change strategy and play the Canberra games @ SCG.

 

[GC2015]

They weren’t but they were expected to be stars.
Brisbane still may have to build an entire spine. If you look at their B&f then it’s likely only 2 of the top 10 will likely still be there by the time the stadium is finished. I’ll be shocked if they have more then half a dozen current players still best 22 by then.

I think they're already putting the plans in place to continue recruiting players in positions that they need to fill. For example, I've heard they are potentially chasing 25yo free agent Oscar Allen so that's a fairly prominent key forward to replace Daniher that they can pair with 26yo Hipwood for at least the next 5 or so years. 25yo key defender Jack Payne has really started to come on in the last year or two and should have at least another 5 years in him. 28yo Harris Andrews definitely has at least 3 more years in him before they need to think about replacing him. The Ashcroft boys are obviously going to play together onball in the future and serve as perfect replacements for Neale when he moves on, other mids like 26yos McCluggage + Berry should be there in 5 years from now and mid-forwards like 25yos Rayner + Bailey should also still be there in 2030. Young mids 18yo Marshall and 20yo Fletcher will continue pushing their case as they enter their prime years at that point in time.

The only immediate issue I see for Brisbane's spine is the ruck. McInerney is 30 and Fort is 31. So they'll need to do something about that over the next year or two, but that shouldn't be too difficult. They just need to stay active in free agency / trades and they should be able to keep this rolling up to 2030 when the new stadium is supposedly going to be done.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I think they're already putting the plans in place to continue recruiting players in positions that they need to fill. For example, I've heard they are potentially chasing 25yo free agent Oscar Allen so that's a fairly prominent key forward to replace Daniher that they can pair with 26yo Hipwood for at least the next 5 or so years. 25yo key defender Jack Payne has really started to come on in the last year or two and should have at least another 5 years in him. 28yo Harris Andrews definitely has at least 3 more years in him before they need to think about replacing him. The Ashcroft boys are obviously going to play together onball in the future and serve as perfect replacements for Neale when he moves on, other mids like 26yos McCluggage + Berry should be there in 5 years from now and mid-forwards like 25yos Rayner + Bailey should also still be there in 2030. Young mids 18yo Marshall and 20yo Fletcher will continue pushing their case as they enter their prime years at that point in time.

The only immediate issue I see for Brisbane's spine is the ruck. McInerney is 30 and Fort is 31. So they'll need to do something about that over the next year or two, but that shouldn't be too difficult. They just need to stay active in free agency / trades and they should be able to keep this rolling up to 2030 when the new stadium is supposedly going to be done.

Of course they have plans in place and would know the positions they need to fill, every side does but it’s rare that teams can actually do it.
There are probably 15 clubs you could list who have players who will be there in 2030-32 that would look every bit as impressive.
I look at my club and think there could be a cliff coming but even then Weitering and McKay are both younger then Hipwood, Curnow about 8 months different.
TDK, Walsh, Cerra, Smith and fingers crossed Walker will all still be around. As I said I think you could make an argument for every side. When we are talking about a time in which you have to possibly replace 2/3 of a side then I think it’s extremely difficult to predict

 

[Canberra Pear]

Given they averaged 13k in 2017, three seasons in a row over 15k would show some growth. But they have only ever had five non Swans in season games over 15k, so can anyone really see that happening? Overall AFL crowds have grown by 10% since then and the Giants have made no progress at all.

You're judging their success through a Melbourne lens.

Not to make excuses, but Covid did disproportionately affect the Giants.

They didn't have the rusted-on fanbase that the rest of the competition had.

They dipped hard. They only averaged 6k in 2022. Their average double that in 2024. If the AFL improved that much we'd have average 60k crowds.

In 2024, the Giants had higher Sydney home crowds than Cronulla, and only 400 off Wests. And half of their games are essentially derbies. The Giants are more than holding their own by Sydney standards.

I think 15k is definitely achievable in coming years.

I would change strategy and play the Canberra games @ SCG.

The Giants only need to cover the one Canberra game. Engie is still fine for 10 games.

My preference would be to avoid the SCG like the plague. The Giants aren't just Sydney 2. They're Western Sydney. But if they have to play at the SCG, it should only be one game.

 

[Bjo187]

Given they averaged 13k in 2017, three seasons in a row over 15k would show some growth. But they have only ever had five non Swans in season games over 15k, so can anyone really see that happening? Overall AFL crowds have grown by 10% since then and the Giants have made no progress at all.

I would change strategy and play the Canberra games @ SCG.

Get off their case, they need footy fans supporting them not death riding them, the Sydney nrl media do that enough. I noticed last year they kept saying they should move to Canberra, clearly not wanting another swans on their hands. But yes as Canberra pear said, they got smashed during covid coz the roots weren't deep enough yet, this was particularly at grassroots level where a lot of their hard work was undone due to years of not playing. The afl also dropped the ball coz they were more worried about getting the game going again in the heartland, remember crowds were terrible everywhere there for a while. AFL NSW has a new CEO who is a good appointment, the commission has allocated more resources to the area under Dillon and we're already seeing some positive upticks. Their social media followers have gone up a third just in the past 2 years is another good sign.

Of course they have plans in place and would know the positions they need to fill, every side does but it’s rare that teams can actually do it.
There are probably 15 clubs you could list who have players who will be there in 2030-32 that would look every bit as impressive.
I look at my club and think there could be a cliff coming but even then Weitering and McKay are both younger then Hipwood, Curnow about 8 months different.
TDK, Walsh, Cerra, Smith and fingers crossed Walker will all still be around. As I said I think you could make an argument for every side. When we are talking about a time in which you have to possibly replace 2/3 of a side then I think it’s extremely difficult to predict

Whilst I agree a lot of teams can make claims to potential in the future, the difference is the lions have a sustained and successful culture, which they're adding amazing young talent on top of. That's a lot different than young stars getting drafted to a north, suns or Essendon, that never develop players in the right way and have a long term unsuccessful culture nurturing them.

 

[GC2015]

Of course they have plans in place and would know the positions they need to fill, every side does but it’s rare that teams can actually do it.
There are probably 15 clubs you could list who have players who will be there in 2030-32 that would look every bit as impressive.
I look at my club and think there could be a cliff coming but even then Weitering and McKay are both younger then Hipwood, Curnow about 8 months different.
TDK, Walsh, Cerra, Smith and fingers crossed Walker will all still be around. As I said I think you could make an argument for every side. When we are talking about a time in which you have to possibly replace 2/3 of a side then I think it’s extremely difficult to predict

Of course you could make an argument for any side. I've seen many onlookers predicting that my club (the Suns) will be this unbeatable juggernaut in the near future due to the academy picks that have come through recently... and yet here we are 14 years in still without a single finals appearance.

IMO there's more to it than just drafting a bunch of high end picks. It's an internal thing that's hard to pinpoint because if it was easy, then every club would be doing it. Whatever the secret sauce is, Brisbane figured it out back in 2019 and haven't looked back since.

I know some may suggest that had a lot to do with Neale, but if you go back and look at the games they played without Neale while he was injured, they were arguably just as good (if not better) than they were with him at that point in time.

Whilst I agree a lot of teams can make claims to potential in the future, the difference is the lions have a sustained and successful culture, which they're adding amazing young talent on top of. That's a lot different than young stars getting drafted to a north, suns or Essendon, that never develop players in the right way and have a long term unsuccessful culture nurturing them.

Exactly. Brisbane are a proven finals commodity of continued success and have been for over 5 years now. Think about the lower picks they've drafted and turned into consistent best 22 contributors since they became a finals team: Keidean Coleman, Noah Answerth, Darcy Wilmot, Kai Lohmann etc. Then you look at how they've been able to develop those high end father-son picks into stars like Will Ashcroft and it's pretty obvious that Brisbane often get the best out of their draftees.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Get off their case, they need footy fans supporting them not death riding them, the Sydney nrl media do that enough. I noticed last year they kept saying they should move to Canberra, clearly not wanting another swans on their hands. But yes as Canberra pear said, they got smashed during covid coz the roots weren't deep enough yet, this was particularly at grassroots level where a lot of their hard work was undone due to years of not playing. The afl also dropped the ball coz they were more worried about getting the game going again in the heartland, remember crowds were terrible everywhere there for a while. AFL NSW has a new CEO who is a good appointment, the commission has allocated more resources to the area under Dillon and we're already seeing some positive upticks. Their social media followers have gone up a third just in the past 2 years is another good sign.



Whilst I agree a lot of teams can make claims to potential in the future, the difference is the lions have a sustained and successful culture, which they're adding amazing young talent on top of. That's a lot different than young stars getting drafted to a north, suns or Essendon, that never develop players in the right way and have a long term unsuccessful culture nurturing them.

Of course you could make an argument for any side. I've seen many onlookers predicting that my club (the Suns) will be this unbeatable juggernaut in the near future due to the academy picks that have come through recently... and yet here we are 14 years in still without a single finals appearance.

IMO there's more to it than just drafting a bunch of high end picks. It's an internal thing that's hard to pinpoint because if it was easy, then every club would be doing it. Whatever the secret sauce is, Brisbane figured it out back in 2019 and haven't looked back since.

I know some may suggest that had a lot to do with Neale, but if you go back and look at the games they played without Neale while he was injured, they were arguably just as good (if not better) than they were with him at that point in time.


Exactly. Brisbane are a proven finals commodity of continued success and have been for over 5 years now. Think about the lower picks they've drafted and turned into consistent best 22 contributors since they became a finals team: Keidean Coleman, Noah Answerth, Darcy Wilmot, Kai Lohmann etc. Then you look at how they've been able to develop those high end father-son picks into stars like Will Ashcroft and it's pretty obvious that Brisbane often get the best out of their draftees.

I totally understand what you are saying. It’s just that I’ve heard the exact same things said about the current two worst sides in the AFL not too long ago.

 

[Philhawk]

Where else could the Giants play?

Even in a fantasy scenario, would there be a good location to build a stadium where the west can access it fairly easily?

Strongly believe they should consider playing 3-4 home games at the SCG.

It’s just my personal experience, but I know a huge number of Giants fans who reside, like me, in the East who haven’t attended a single game out west.

 

[GC2015]

I totally understand what you are saying. It’s just that I’ve heard the exact same things said about the current two worst sides in the AFL not too long ago.

Richmond knew the cliff was coming and tried to shortcut it by recruiting Hopper + Taranto and it blew up in their face, just like it did for Hawthorn when they recruited prime O'Meara + Mitchell. Brisbane have gone down a different route (due to luck from the father-son rule) and have recruited two generational talents in the Ashcroft boys. They are two very different strategies when it comes to rebuilding a list on the go. I think you could say the same thing about West Coast when they recruited Tim Kelly and it didn't work out the way they wanted it to. You can already tell that Harley Reid is going to be a much better bet for them going forward when compared to what we've seen from Tim Kelly while he's been at West Coast.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Richmond knew the cliff was coming and tried to shortcut it by recruiting Hopper + Taranto and it blew up in their face, just like it did for Hawthorn when they recruited prime O'Meara + Mitchell. Brisbane have gone down a different route (due to luck from the father-son rule) and have recruited two generational talents in the Ashcroft boys. They are two very different strategies when it comes to rebuilding a list on the go. I think you could say the same thing about West Coast when they recruited Tim Kelly and it didn't work out the way they wanted it to. You can already tell that Harley Reid is going to be a much better bet for them going forward when compared to what we've seen from Tim Kelly while he's been at West Coast.

Richmond literally took 5 top 30 picks the year before getting those two players. Those two player also should’ve just been coming into their prime. They along with Balta, Gibcus and Bolton were supposed to be the core to make sure they stay up. Then like every club thinks they will keep topping up with FA etc.
Ashcrofts look great but they are far from generational talents. That’s what Reid’s, Daicos etc are.

 

[GC2015]

Richmond literally took 5 top 30 picks the year before getting those two players. Those two player also should’ve just been coming into their prime. They along with Balta, Gibcus and Bolton were supposed to be the core to make sure they stay up. Then like every club thinks they will keep topping up with FA etc.
Ashcrofts look great but they are far from generational talents. That’s what Reid’s, Daicos etc are.

I just think it's very difficult to keep a premiership window open for a long time. Cotchin, Riewoldt and Dusty went through the struggles and were massive drivers of their success for so long. History shows that you can't just transplant former Giants players like Hopper and Taranto into the club and expect it to be the same going forward. The same can be said about Hawthorn players like Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis being replaced by O'Meara and Mitchell.

I think this is where Brisbane differentiates from those examples. Their core going forward is going to be players that have been through the struggles or are embedded in the fabric of the club's history like Rayner and the Ashcrofts. Of course there will be transplants that come in like the Danihers and Dunkleys of the world, but there will still be a strong core of guys that have strong memories of when the club struggled.

I completely disagree with your opinion that the Ashcroft boys aren't generational talents. I'm fairly confident that one (or both) of them will win a Brownlow in the future and will be top 5 players in the league one day. We can rivisit this post in a few years from now if you like and reassess whether my predictions are accurate.

 

[Jirik13]

we here this about every side. It’s like Richmond supporters talking about Balta and Bolton and how they had 5 top 30 picks 4-5 years ago. It’s seriously guess work.
Teams like North are stacked with young talent, teams like Brisbane, have strong youth like about half of the rest of the comp. It’s nothing special where you would just assume future success.

Sure plenty of talent on many teams, competition was never more even. If Lions lost to GWS a lot of people would be critical of them.

Besides talented young players with now finals experience Lions also have a lot of players entering or in their prime - 25-28 years bracket (Rayner, McCluggage, Bailey, Starcevich, Coleman, Berry, Hipwood, Payne, Dunkley, Ah Chee, Andrews, Answerth) and now they know how to win it all. Min 3-5 years of success for me. They also are getting good players from academy like Suns.

Having said all that, at the moment Lions have a lot of players in rehab, it could be a tough start for them in 2025 after shorter break. But depth players are good.

 

[Jirik13]

I just think it's very difficult to keep a premiership window open for a long time. Cotchin, Riewoldt and Dusty went through the struggles and were massive drivers of their success for so long. History shows that you can't just transplant former Giants players like Hopper and Taranto into the club and expect it to be the same going forward. The same can be said about Hawthorn players like Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis being replaced by O'Meara and Mitchell.

I think this is where Brisbane differentiates from those examples. Their core going forward is going to be players that have been through the struggles or are embedded in the fabric of the club's history like Rayner and the Ashcrofts. Of course there will be transplants that come in like the Danihers and Dunkleys of the world, but there will still be a strong core of guys that have strong memories of when the club struggled.

I completely disagree with your opinion that the Ashcroft boys aren't generational talents. I'm fairly confident that one (or both) of them will win a Brownlow in the future and will be top 5 players in the league one day. We can rivisit this post in a few years from now if you like and reassess whether my predictions are accurate.

Yeah, agree on Ashcroft. Some people show re-watch grand final. What Will did after coming from ACL was unbelievable. He's special. Happy to call him a generational talent.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I just think it's very difficult to keep a premiership window open for a long time. Cotchin, Riewoldt and Dusty went through the struggles and were massive drivers of their success for so long. History shows that you can't just transplant former Giants players like Hopper and Taranto into the club and expect it to be the same going forward. The same can be said about Hawthorn players like Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis being replaced by O'Meara and Mitchell.

I think this is where Brisbane differentiates from those examples. Their core going forward is going to be players that have been through the struggles or are embedded in the fabric of the club's history like Rayner and the Ashcrofts. Of course there will be transplants that come in like the Danihers and Dunkleys of the world, but there will still be a strong core of guys that have strong memories of when the club struggled.

I completely disagree with your opinion that the Ashcroft boys aren't generational talents. I'm fairly confident that one (or both) of them will win a Brownlow in the future and will be top 5 players in the league one day. We can rivisit this post in a few years from now if you like and reassess whether my predictions are accurate.

But that is exactly what they will need to do. Because by say 2030 they will need to find about two thirds of a side.
This is where I think history gets rewritten with the benefit of hindsight. Bolton, Baker, Short, Balta all looked like stars going into the future. Rioli, Nank, Vlastuin were core guys.
Neale has been as absolute superstar of the game and if either Ashcroft boy gets close to him then they have done an amazing effort. Where do they just replace a 60 goal forward who goes through the ruck? They will need to be bringing in the Taranto/Hopper types to do that.
Brisbane off the top of my head had 5 AA players on their side. More than likely none are still playing in 5 years with 3 already over 30, one is 28 and the other already gone.
I just think that every side has good players and stuff all has to go wrong for a side like Brisbane to come back to the pack. The tightening of the points system will also make things much tougher for them or any side to be able to stay up on the back of FS/academy kids.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Sure plenty of talent on many teams, competition was never more even. If Lions lost to GWS a lot of people would be critical of them.

Besides talented young players with now finals experience Lions also have a lot of players entering or in their prime - 25-28 years bracket (Rayner, McCluggage, Bailey, Starcevich, Coleman, Berry, Hipwood, Payne, Dunkley, Ah Chee, Andrews, Answerth) and now they know how to win it all. Min 3-5 years of success for me. They also are getting good players from academy like Suns.

Having said all that, at the moment Lions have a lot of players in rehab, it could be a tough start for them in 2025 after shorter break. But depth players are good.

They do have plenty of good players to maintain their success around. Noway am I saying they can’t it’s just that I think they need a lot to go right to do so.
they could lose three of their best 4 players over the next couple of years. We always see things like Coleman to replace Zorko, Ashcroft to replace Neale, Someone to replace Cameron, FA to replace Daniher but It’s not easy and can easily go wrong. You rely on everyone reaching their potential which rarely happens. Losing Daniher is going to hurt them a lot more than people think. You can spend years worth of first round picks chasing that player.