AFL R11

[Keystone agony]

Why are Sydney such a bad wet weather team? It doesn't make sense to me

IMO theyre better in dry open games now at ES, MCG, Subi ect and even Adelaide oval. They pantsed eagles at sub when Hanneberry had 40+ and the midfield racked it up. They smashed Crows at AO when out of form earlier in the season and have gradually been playing better footy at the g and ES over the last few years.

They have moved from the Kirk, Okeffe, Cresswell, Bolton midfield days who lacked outside run in 2004-2006 years to now having guys like Jetta, Hanneberry, Mcveigh,R.Shaw, Jack that give them that run and speed outside.

 

[Spads]

No it isn't

B.S. - next you're probably going to claim that a tonne of bricks isn't heavier than a tonne of feathers.

 

[Jay-Z]

IMO theyre better in dry open games now at ES, MCG, Subi ect and even Adelaide oval. They pantsed eagles at sub when Hanneberry had 40+ and the midfield racked it up. They smashed Crows at AO when out of form earlier in the season and have gradually been playing better footy at the g and ES over the last few years.

They have moved from the Kirk, Okeffe, Cresswell, Bolton midfield days who lacked outside run in 2004-2006 years to now having guys like Jetta, Hanneberry, Mcveigh,R.Shaw, Jack that give them that run and speed outside.

Yeah but they are still a strong contested ball/clearance side. For north, we play a lot of games at Etihad with the roof closed and last year we had a game plan that made us great at Etihad and horrible in the wet. That makes sense. The swans struggles just don't seem logical to me

 

[Strahany]

Anyone looking to take advantage of Sportsbet's money back offer when a team loses after leading at any break? I think all of the following are worthwhile bets, with decent "security", in terms of getting your money back in the event they lose:

Geelong @ 2.70
Carlton @ 1.42
Essendon @ 1.62
Adelaide @ 1.70
North Melbourne @ 2.30

I also think Fremantle (1.16) and Port (1.13) could be worth backing. Sure, the winnings won't be much, but you're at least getting coverage on the potential for a big upset, as I highly doubt Melbourne or Footscray would lead from start to finish.

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeah but they are still a strong contested ball/clearance side. For north, we play a lot of games at Etihad with the roof closed and last year we had a game plan that made us great at Etihad and horrible in the wet. That makes sense. The swans struggles just don't seem logical to me

Might have to look at ther clearance/contested possession stats over the last few weeks. Usually good measures to winning games along with I50's. IIRC Essendon pretty much matched them in such areas but lost by 50 points at etihad stadium.

 

[Keystone agony]

Im starting to really like Gold Coast for some reason. If this game was played in melbourne or at Gold Coast ground id say they would be healthy favourites at 1.60. Adelaide are yet to prove that they love playing at the new Adelaide oval its a biggish ground, fast moving ect They struggle in this area IMO they dont have heaps of speed or good spread. Ladder wise it would be said GC are the much better side. Along with this Dangerfield is very sore and might not play, Walker is still finding his touch and GC defenders have been good this year in May and Rory Thompson. I also think this ground suits GC, they are fast and move the ball efficiently, fast and spread well from watching that buldogs game. They also have a forward line very capable of kicking a score with talls (Dixon, Lynch, Day), smalls (Bennell, Matera) and a very good midfield of Swallow, Ablett, JOM, Prestia ect. The weather conditions last i checked for the sunday day game should be pretty good in regards to no real rain.

Anyone else feeling the same. 2.25 at luxbet

 

[Strahany]

Personally, I would be more than happy to take the punt on Gold Coast, especially with Sportsbet's money back offer (yes, I listed Adelaide in my post, but that's only because I feel they're highly likely to lead at one of the breaks, thus ensuring the worst case scenario is breaking even).

 

[iluvparis]

B.S. - next you're probably going to claim that a tonne of bricks isn't heavier than a tonne of feathers.

I liked the bit when he said Essendon was a lock because he was an Essendon supported.

 

[ricardogp]

Who's got evidence of Rain at the SCG?

This site and this site both say that a shower is 'possible'.

If it's dry then I have Sydney by 5-6 goals

 

[Jugada]

Who's got evidence of Rain at the SCG?

This site and this site both say that a shower is 'possible'.

If it's dry then I have Sydney by 5-6 goals

Agree, cant see rain having any effect at all. Predicting a possible shower some time Thursday with 0-1mm of rain is not even worth worrying about

 

[Keystone agony]

The likelihood of rain keeps diminishing as time goes by just at 30% now for the time of game. With it being a night game with maybe bits of rain before the game and during the game it might be a little slippery and dewy.

 

[Reluctant Jim]

Geelong, Richmond and GC are the upsets I'd take a punt on with that lead at the break money back promotion.

 

[banana_bus]

Geelong, Richmond and GC are the upsets I'd take a punt on with that lead at the break money back promotion.

+ North Melbourne

 

[hayes]

The likelihood of rain keeps diminishing as time goes by just at 30% now for the time of game. With it being a night game with maybe bits of rain before the game and during the game it might be a little slippery and dewy.

No issue if that's the case IMO, AFL grounds drain quick smart.

 

[d3ft]

Yeah I get what your saying, I misworded. I meant as risk free as possible. E.G having 3 legs paying $1.70 is a lot less risky than something say 2 legs paying $1.05 and 1 leg paying $5

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

 

[Spads]

Im starting to really like Gold Coast for some reason ...

Anyone else feeling the same. 2.25 at luxbet

Plenty of reasons to back gold coast. The fact that they are clearly the better team will do me though.

Happy to back them at anything over $1.90.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

So this money back promo, if I put $100 on Geelong at $2.90 and they lead at any break, but then loose, I get a refund? ... Crazy? No?

 

[TheKanga]

So this money back promo, if I put $100 on Geelong at $2.90 and they lead at any break, but then loose, I get a refund? ... Crazy? No?

Yep you will, lets just hope it's not like their match vs. Freo where they never gave a yelp.

 

[banana_bus]

Plenty of reasons to back gold coast. The fact that they are clearly the better team will do me though.

Happy to back them at anything over $1.90.

Why are they a better team?

These are their wins;

Tigers
Lions
Demons
Giants
Roos
Saints
Bulldogs

The win away against the Roos was great, but none of the others were exactly staggering results.

Crows home ground advantage should be enough here.

 

[fredd]

1U Pick your own match Fremantle > Port @ $2
Fremantle play at Etihad vs an average defensive team in the Bulldogs. Melbourne have been a decent team defensively all year and I think will turn their match into a scrappy low scoring game.

3U Pick your own match North > Essendon @ $2.45
On paper I think the North vs West Coast game will be a bit of a shootout (with North a decent chance of winning) played in good conditions vs a rainy MCG and a Bombers outfit who haven't scored more than 10 goals since round 3....

0.25U Lowest scoring team for the round Essendon @ $23
1.25U Lowest scoring game for the round Essendon v Richmond @ $6

Largely betting against Essendon's inability to score at the moment.

 

[Spads]

Why are they a better team?

These are their wins;

Tigers
Lions
Demons
Giants
Roos
Saints
Bulldogs

The win away against the Roos was great, but none of the others were exactly staggering results.

Crows home ground advantage should be enough here.

What does this list prove other than the fact that they are yet to lose to an inferior team?

3 of Adelaides 4 wins come from that same group, but they've also had losses against that group.

Furthermore, I've watched both teams play. One of these teams will play finals and I don't think it's Adelaide.

 

[banana_bus]

What does this list prove other than the fact that they are yet to lose to an inferior team?

3 of Adelaides 4 wins come from that same group, but they've also had losses against that group.

Furthermore, I've watched both teams play. One of these teams will play finals and I don't think it's Adelaide.

I have watched them too, as a matter of fact.

Crows are hit and miss. But they should have won last week and should have beaten Melbourne. Slow starts killed them.

On paper they are the better team.

Your point is that GC are the better team. I don't think they are. But that's your opinion.

 

[Young Gun #6]

5 Units, Hawhs v GWS highest margin of the week $1.80

 

[banana_bus]

Cats out to $3.05 now on Sportsbet, really looking forward to tonights game

 

[Keystone agony]

Cats out to $3.05 now on Sportsbet, really looking forward to tonights game

I keep backing them as i continually feel ive missed the value. Got on at 2.45 and was happy with that, then 2.85 and now 3.05 with money back if they lead at any break is ridiculous so is their now line.