AFL R11

[Chism]

Alright so I need a 3 leg multi all based on AFL games this weekend with TAB. I'm trying to get it as risk-free as possible paying a minimum of $5.
Some of the legs I'm considering are:
Essendon -8.5 - $1.90 (being an Essendon fan I reckon this will most likely happen)
Carlton -16.5 - $1.90
Sydney under 39.5 - $2.05
Adelaide under 39.5 - $2.15
WCE vs North either team under 15.5 points - $2.70

Cheers!

From those legs i like the Bombers , Blues and Crows.

North V West Coast is a don't touch with either team under 15pts and Geelong are just Geelong and can beat anyone so they are hard to bet against.

 

[Jay-Z]

Alright so I need a 3 leg multi all based on AFL games this weekend with TAB. I'm trying to get it as risk-free as possible paying a minimum of $5.
Some of the legs I'm considering are:
Essendon -8.5 - $1.90 (being an Essendon fan I reckon this will most likely happen)
Carlton -16.5 - $1.90
Sydney under 39.5 - $2.05
Adelaide under 39.5 - $2.15
WCE vs North either team under 15.5 points - $2.70

Cheers!

Risk-free multi for $5? - dunno about that but I would go

Carlton -15.5
Sydney under 39.5
Freo over 15.5
@5.22

 

[jaymasha]

Well I hope they can at least lead at a change so I can get my money back

Geelong have won 8 out of 9 first quarters this year

 

[Keystone agony]

0.5U GWS Lowest scoring team for the round @5 (TAB)

0.5U Brisbane Lowest scoreing team for round @11 (TAB)

 

[JohnnyDrama1]

Risk-free multi for $5? - dunno about that but I would go

Carlton -15.5
Sydney under 39.5
Freo over 15.5
@5.22

I meant as risk free as possible what I mean is not having a multi such as Hawks to win @1.01, Port to win @1.08 & Doggies to win @6.25 as oppose to having 3 legs as I suggested (much less risk in the second option) yet paying around the same.

 

[JohnnyDrama1]

Bombers -8.5 or Swans under 39?

 

[Sketi]

I like the Tiges, well for tipping at least. Really don't rate the Bombers.

 

[ricardogp]

Alright so I need a 3 leg multi all based on AFL games this weekend with TAB. I'm trying to get it as risk-free as possible paying a minimum of $5.
Some of the legs I'm considering are:
Essendon -8.5 - $1.90 (being an Essendon fan I reckon this will most likely happen)
Carlton -16.5 - $1.90
Sydney under 39.5 - $2.05
Adelaide under 39.5 - $2.15
WCE vs North either team under 15.5 points - $2.70

Cheers!

You have to understand what you're saying here. A 3-leg muti coming in at $5 means that each leg has to be $1.70. $1.70 is not very low risk IMO. With some back-of-the-envelope calcs, $1.70 is about 53% chance of winning (noting that bookies don't give you real odds - they always keep a slice).

Cubing this gives your 3-leg about 14% chance of winning. Unless you are looking to find something that the bookies don't know.

I would call a low-risk bet around the $1.30 mark, so my low-risk multi would come out at about $2.20...

Maybe we have different opinions of risk...

 

[JohnnyDrama1]

You have to understand what you're saying here. A 3-leg muti coming in at $5 means that each leg has to be $1.70. $1.70 is not very low risk IMO. With some back-of-the-envelope calcs, $1.70 is about 53% chance of winning (noting that bookies don't give you real odds - they always keep a slice).

Cubing this gives your 3-leg about 14% chance of winning. Unless you are looking to find something that the bookies don't know.

I would call a low-risk bet around the $1.30 mark, so my low-risk multi would come out at about $2.20...

Maybe we have different opinions of risk...

Yeah I get what your saying, I misworded. I meant as risk free as possible. E.G having 3 legs paying $1.70 is a lot less risky than something say 2 legs paying $1.05 and 1 leg paying $5

 

[Lensen]

No it isn't

 

[foxy_dal]

Odds are odds, it's what you define as your own odds vs the market odds to reduce your 'risk'.

 

[Sketi]

Just looking at this 1.43 I can get for the Blues to beat Brisbane. Does that look value to anyone else or am I missing something?

 

[jaymasha]

Just looking at this 1.43 I can get for the Blues to beat Brisbane. Does that look value to anyone else or am I missing something?

They should win, but i have a feeling it'll be closer than most think. Games at the gabba haven't produced high scores.

 

[hayes]

Apparently for tonight only Sportingbet have a special paying $6 for Buddy and Tippett to combine for 6 goals. Max of $20.

 

[Keystone agony]

Apparently for tonight only Sportingbet have a special paying $6 for Buddy and Tippett to combine for 6 goals. Max of $20.

I doubt will happen. Up against rain, low scoring sides and good key defenders.

2U J.Kennedy Under 115.5 DT @1.87 (TAB)
Seems an over reaction to paying easy sides in bombers, brisbane and melbourne of late to score well and an undermanned hawks team who dont really hard tag. Not saying he will get tagged. Has scored 59,90, 98 and 76 in his last 4 vs Geel according to AFL dreamers. Geelong also this year have conceded the lease amount of points against them. About 90 points less than the average per game. He avg just 90 last year and whilst he is avg 110 this year its an extremely high line for a game vs Geelong at the SCG.

1U J.Kelly Under 100.5 @1.87 DT (Lux)
He has cleared this line in the last 2 weeks however with Enright and Lonergan out i expect him to move back to his half back flank role especially with the return of SJ. Sydney arent the easiest team to score against and @SCG in 2012 the scoreing at the ground was about 43 less per game on avg then the avg scored at grounds. A high line for more of your 85 avg guy.

Im also looking at Stokes at 100.5 line unders. Unsure if ill take it.

 

[hayes]

I doubt will happen. Up against rain, low scoring sides and good key defenders.

2U J.Kennedy Under 115.5 DT @1.87 (TAB)
Seems an over reaction to paying easy sides in bombers, brisbane and melbourne of late to score well and an undermanned hawks team who dont really hard tag. Not saying he will get tagged. Has scored 59,90, 98 and 76 in his last 4 vs Geel according to AFL dreamers. Geelong also this year have conceded the lease amount of points against them. About 90 points less than the average per game. He avg just 90 last year and whilst he is avg 110 this year its an extremely high line for a game vs Geelong at the SCG.

1U J.Kelly Under 100.5 @1.87 DT (Lux)
He has cleared this line in the last 2 weeks however with Enright and Lonergan out i expect him to move back to his half back flank role especially with the return of SJ. Sydney arent the easiest team to score against and @SCG in 2012 the scoreing at the ground was about 43 less per game on avg then the avg scored at grounds. A high line for more of your 85 avg guy.

Im also looking at Stokes at 100.5 line unders. Unsure if ill take it.

True but with the form Buddy was in he could cover this by himself. Lonergan out helps obviously.

 

[coach31]

1U Hannebery Over 100.5 DT @ 1.87 (Luxbet)
Put a half unit on this when it first came out Monday and adding nother half now its been put back up. He's covered this the past 5 matches and averaged 118 in that time. Hoping he can continue that form for at least another week.

 

[BloodRet]

Apparently for tonight only Sportingbet have a special paying $6 for Buddy and Tippett to combine for 6 goals. Max of $20.

Saw that and definitely getting on it.

 

[Anzac16]

Saw that and definitely getting on it.

Wish I could, definite value there. Pity it's not eligible for SA customers...

 

[TheKanga]

Anyone think the Cats could still win despite their outs?

 

[Keystone agony]

Anyone think the Cats could still win despite their outs?

Absolutely i think you can get Geelong around 3.4/3.5 to win 1-39.

If they get a bit of rain which is likely it helps geelong. SJ and Smedts are both best 22 players so good ins aswell - let alone the outs. I feel Taylor, Rivers, Mackie, Blicavs can certainly do the job on Reid, Buddy, Tippett. Kelly will go back for experience and a cool head to replace Enright.

SJ, Selwood, Bartel, Stokes, Guthrie, Duncan can certainly match the Sydney mids in Kennedy, Jack, Hanneberry, Mcglynn, Parker, Mcveigh.

Can Hawkins, Motlop, Varcoe, Bartel kick enough goals to win? in a low scoring game they can but it is the worry. They will need to find some from Stringer, SJ, GHS, Smedts ect

Sydney are still unproven off the bye a bit. Geelong have value there 1-39

 

[coach31]

Absolutely i think you can get Geelong around 3.4/3.5 to win 1-39.

If they get a bit of rain which is likely it helps geelong. SJ and Smedts are both best 22 players so good ins aswell - let alone the outs. I feel Taylor, Rivers, Mackie, Blicavs can certainly do the job on Reid, Buddy, Tippett. Kelly will go back for experience and a cool head to replace Enright.

SJ, Selwood, Bartel, Stokes, Guthrie, Duncan can certainly match the Sydney mids in Kennedy, Jack, Hanneberry, Mcglynn, Parker, Mcveigh.

Can Hawkins, Motlop, Varcoe, Bartel kick enough goals to win? in a low scoring game they can but it is the worry. They will need to find some from Stringer, SJ, GHS, Smedts ect

Sydney are still unproven off the bye a bit. Geelong have value there 1-39

Agree with this. If Geelong keep drifting I will be having a go at them. I was leaning towards them before the outs but with the greater odds they are definitely tempting me. Might wait and see on the weather.

 

[BloodRet]

Simply put, if it's dry Sydney should win, if it's raining Geelong should win. The weather will determine the outcome of this match.

 

[Jay-Z]

Simply put, if it's dry Sydney should win, if it's raining Geelong should win. The weather will determine the outcome of this match.

Why are Sydney such a bad wet weather team? It doesn't make sense to me

 

[BloodRet]

Why are Sydney such a bad wet weather team? It doesn't make sense to me

Not even sure tbh, we just can't play wet weather footy.