AFL R12

[Keystone agony]

1u Simpson over Gibbs SC $1.85
2u Montagna over Hayes SC $1.70
2u Dal Santo over Harvey SC $1.85
2u Vince over Dunn SC $1.70

Reasons and more bets to follow. Damn sportsbet releasing these while I have work!

Tailed all exactly.

Also added 2U Redden over Zorko SC @1.85
Also 1U Bird over Mcglynn @1.88 (Sportsbet) - Expecting Mcglynn to have his hands full tagging Ablett not sure if you score many SC points keeping a player out of the game. Bird has gone over 100 each of his alst 3 and is playing onball more and more

Id love to hear the reasoning as im a little concerned about them, however your last week record was impeccable - ill back you in

 

[TheKanga]

Anyone know if Bet 365 does 1-39 margins like sportsbet?

Couldn't seem to find it...

 

[laam]

2u Dal Santo over Harvey SC $1.85
2u Vince over Dunn SC $1.70

Reasons and more bets to follow. Damn sportsbet releasing these while I have work!

tailed these 2

 

[BROOMY]

Anyone know if Bet 365 does 1-39 margins like sportsbet?

Couldn't seem to find it...

It's under Winning Margin (Alt 2)

 

[boyOboy]

1u Simpson over Gibbs SC $1.85
2u Montagna over Hayes SC $1.70
2u Dal Santo over Harvey SC $1.85
2u Vince over Dunn SC $1.70

Reasons and more bets to follow. Damn sportsbet releasing these while I have work!

These came in way too quickly for me to tail

 

[BROOMY]

Money back if your losing first goalscorer kicks 3+ goals on Sportsbet.
Thinking of putting a bit of money on Tom Hawkins. What are peoples thoughts?

 

[boyOboy]

Money back if your losing first goalscorer kicks 3+ goals on Sportsbet.
Thinking of putting a bit of money on Tom Hawkins. What are peoples thoughts?

I was just looking at that. Could be good! Might chuck 0.5U on it.

 

[Keystone agony]

Money back if your losing first goalscorer kicks 3+ goals on Sportsbet.
Thinking of putting a bit of money on Tom Hawkins. What are peoples thoughts?

Yep im on. Hes the only one on the field i have any sort of confidence in kicking 3 or more really.

 

[jaymasha]

Got an $80 free bet with sporting bet.

Geelong at -14.5 half time line @1.90. 4u
Geelong -7.5 & Over 45.5 quarter time and totals @ 3.50 4u

 

[TheKanga]

Geelong 1-39 - 2.8u @ 2.10

Would've gone for the line but it felt like a trap since Geelong has to win by exactly 5 goals for it to get up.
Last 3 clashes between Geelong/Carlton at etihad have seen the Cats win by 2pts, 12pts & 16pts

 

[Lensen]

there really needs to be a massive neon sign at the top of this board about the silliness of wasting free bets on <$2 shots

 

[Keystone agony]

there really needs to be a massive neon sign at the top of this board about the silliness of wasting free bets on <$2 shots

Why? <2 more chance of getting something back but less and >2 less chance of getting something back but if you do more.

Obviousily

 

[Lensen]

Why? <2 more chance of getting something back but less and >2 less chance of getting something back but if you do more.

Obviousily

Because you don't get the stake back.

If you're after money back, arb it with another bookie or Betfair and guarantee yourself ~80% of the free bet value. Putting it on a $1.90 pop that is a 50/50 risk is madness

 

[Sketi]

Version 1 "conservative"

Cats
Hawks
Port
Essendon
Sydney
Collingwood

@2.30 + 25% bonus (bet365)

Version 2 "adventurous"

Cats 1-39
Hawks
Port / Port
Freo 1-39
Sydney -15.5
Collingwood

@10

 

[squeezer]

Its a very small possibility. Did Tyson get tagged last week? he had 30 and kicked 2 goals and Port dont tag - in fact i watched that game and Kornes started going to N.Jones when the game remained close.


Going to follow you back on that Patton one. Going to be hard for him against Hooker, Carlisle and Fletcher. Edit: Actually im not going to. Hard to make out him being the main target will do compared to having the number one key defender on him. I wouldve liked 2-

You're right I got my shit mixed up. Tyson was tagged by Carrazzo in round 4. Still the form he's in half a chance to get Macaffer

 

[chrisdon16]

Geelong/Carlton
Over 186.5

 

[the_big_sav]

Gone with
carl 61-75 geel 91-105
Carl 61-75 geel 106-120
Carl 76-90 geel 91-105
Carl 76-90 geel 106-120

2 pay $11 and 2 pay $13

$20 on each

 

[foxy_dal]

So my reasons for bets posted earlier which have all been backed in, as well as another one i was looking at!

1 unit Simpson over Gibbs SC @ $1.85
Average of 109 v 102 with Simpson in red hot form averaging 127 in his last 4 compared to Gibbs 107 (also good obviously). As I said in my write up for Stokes over Gibbs DT bet, Gibbs has scored much better in wins averaging 126 and just 86 in losses. With the Cats being quite short I expect them to win quite comfortably and Gibbs to be around 86 while Simpson should continue scoring well unless the Cats put time into him. Apart from a 61 (he got 96 DT this game) his next lowest score for the year is 86 so he has been very consistent while Gibbs is up and down. Even if the Blues win or are very competitive I am happy to take Simpson in his form. Only went 1 unit due to already fading Gibbs in another bet.

2 units Montagna over Hayes SC @ $1.85
Average of 107 v 105. Based on this years stats so far it's a pretty even matchup with Hayes being better recently but I don't think Port will really tag Montagna which has been his downfall some weeks. I base this more on last years averages which were 115 and 91. Clearly Hayes has stepped up with Dal missing and will probably average 100-105 I think it is more likely to be 100. Even allowing for a drop off in points I think 110 is quite an achievable average. In short Montagna has underperformed to date and Hayes has exceeded expectations.

2 units Dal Santo over Harvey SC @ $1.85
Average of 114 v 108. Expect these averages to hold up meaning Dal should be a 5-10 ppg better player. Harvey keeps defying his age but I think he is a good chance to average closer to 100 giving even more of an advantage. Both are targets for getting tagged but not sure the Tigers have anyone to?

2 units Vince over Dunn SC @ $1.70
Average of 89 v 88 which I was actually surprised about. Midfielder v Defender is one of my favorites. Dunn averaged 82 last year and under 72 every other year. Vince has been as high as 97 before and should be the better fantasy player. Last 5 Vince avg is 98 compared to Dunn with 92. Dunn is much more up and down as well with 6/10 scores below 82 and Vince just 4/10 below the same number.

 

[laam]

2.5u port,essendon,dogs,freo,hawks,cats win @ 3.29 (b365 bonus)

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Fuar

So my reasons for bets posted earlier which have all been backed in, as well as another one i was looking at!

1 unit Simpson over Gibbs SC @ $1.85
Average of 109 v 102 with Simpson in red hot form averaging 127 in his last 4 compared to Gibbs 107 (also good obviously). As I said in my write up for Stokes over Gibbs DT bet, Gibbs has scored much better in wins averaging 126 and just 86 in losses. With the Cats being quite short I expect them to win quite comfortably and Gibbs to be around 86 while Simpson should continue scoring well unless the Cats put time into him. Apart from a 61 (he got 96 DT this game) his next lowest score for the year is 86 so he has been very consistent while Gibbs is up and down. Even if the Blues win or are very competitive I am happy to take Simpson in his form. Only went 1 unit due to already fading Gibbs in another bet.

2 units Montagna over Hayes SC @ $1.85
Average of 107 v 105. Based on this years stats so far it's a pretty even matchup with Hayes being better recently but I don't think Port will really tag Montagna which has been his downfall some weeks. I base this more on last years averages which were 115 and 91. Clearly Hayes has stepped up with Dal missing and will probably average 100-105 I think it is more likely to be 100. Even allowing for a drop off in points I think 110 is quite an achievable average. In short Montagna has underperformed to date and Hayes has exceeded expectations.

2 units Dal Santo over Harvey SC @ $1.85
Average of 114 v 108. Expect these averages to hold up meaning Dal should be a 5-10 ppg better player. Harvey keeps defying his age but I think he is a good chance to average closer to 100 giving even more of an advantage. Both are targets for getting tagged but not sure the Tigers have anyone to?

2 units Vince over Dunn SC @ $1.70
Average of 89 v 88 which I was actually surprised about. Midfielder v Defender is one of my favorites. Dunn averaged 82 last year and under 72 every other year. Vince has been as high as 97 before and should be the better fantasy player. Last 5 Vince avg is 98 compared to Dunn with 92. Dunn is much more up and down as well with 6/10 scores below 82 and Vince just 4/10 below the same number.

Fuarr these got smashed in!

 

[stewie griffen]

Nothing really screaming out tonight tbh

 

[Willzzz]

Nothing really screaming out tonight tbh

I'm on the Blues' line pretty big tonight.
Think it's about 1-2 goals too high.

I imagine it is cause everyone is expecting the Cats to bounce back and because the Blues are coming off successive 6-day breaks.

We haven't seen the Cats get smashed like they did last week so we don't know how they will bounce back (They lost to Port, Freo, Sydney pretty convincingly for a reason & it hasn't been due to a lack of effort).

Carlton off two successive 6-day breaks isn't good but the bookies have over-estimated the impact here IMO.

EDIT: Bets posted, BOL everyone.

 

[stewie griffen]

I dont trust either team, Carlton have reamed me int he last couple of weeks.

0.1U Menzel FGS @15 for the sake of having a punt

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

So my reasons for bets posted earlier which have all been backed in, as well as another one i was looking at!

1 unit Simpson over Gibbs SC @ $1.85
Average of 109 v 102 with Simpson in red hot form averaging 127 in his last 4 compared to Gibbs 107 (also good obviously). As I said in my write up for Stokes over Gibbs DT bet, Gibbs has scored much better in wins averaging 126 and just 86 in losses. With the Cats being quite short I expect them to win quite comfortably and Gibbs to be around 86 while Simpson should continue scoring well unless the Cats put time into him. Apart from a 61 (he got 96 DT this game) his next lowest score for the year is 86 so he has been very consistent while Gibbs is up and down. Even if the Blues win or are very competitive I am happy to take Simpson in his form. Only went 1 unit due to already fading Gibbs in another bet.

2 units Montagna over Hayes SC @ $1.85
Average of 107 v 105. Based on this years stats so far it's a pretty even matchup with Hayes being better recently but I don't think Port will really tag Montagna which has been his downfall some weeks. I base this more on last years averages which were 115 and 91. Clearly Hayes has stepped up with Dal missing and will probably average 100-105 I think it is more likely to be 100. Even allowing for a drop off in points I think 110 is quite an achievable average. In short Montagna has underperformed to date and Hayes has exceeded expectations.

2 units Dal Santo over Harvey SC @ $1.85
Average of 114 v 108. Expect these averages to hold up meaning Dal should be a 5-10 ppg better player. Harvey keeps defying his age but I think he is a good chance to average closer to 100 giving even more of an advantage. Both are targets for getting tagged but not sure the Tigers have anyone to?

2 units Vince over Dunn SC @ $1.70
Average of 89 v 88 which I was actually surprised about. Midfielder v Defender is one of my favorites. Dunn averaged 82 last year and under 72 every other year. Vince has been as high as 97 before and should be the better fantasy player. Last 5 Vince avg is 98 compared to Dunn with 92. Dunn is much more up and down as well with 6/10 scores below 82 and Vince just 4/10 below the same number.

Whats the other one you were looking at mate?

 

[the_big_sav]

Doesn't feel like the kind of game carlton will be held to 9 or less is this 1/4