mattys123
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2015 AFL PREMIERSHIP SEASON
ROUND 1
COLLINGWOOD vs BRISBANE
SATURDAY 4TH APRIL 7.20PM (AEDT)
GABBA
BROADCAST GUIDE;
http://www.afl.com.au/broadcastguide
WEATHER;
Forecast; http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/brisbane.shtml
Radar; http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml
ROUND 1
COLLINGWOOD vs BRISBANE
SATURDAY 4TH APRIL 7.20PM (AEDT)
GABBA
BROADCAST GUIDE;
http://www.afl.com.au/broadcastguide
WEATHER;
Forecast; http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/brisbane.shtml
Radar; http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml
Footy's back, and not a moment too soon as the AFL deals with the fallout from yet another drug controversy. It's round one finally and this Saturday night Collingwood and Brisbane will open their home and away campaigns at the Gabba. Collingwood, the club caught up in the latest performance enhancing drug investigation, travels north with hopes of a better season then they had in 2014. Injuries, form and off field problems meant that the biggest club in the land missed the finals for the first time in 8 seasons. The Lions, still rebuilding after some recruiting mistakes made under previous coach Michael Voss, had a tumultuous season which was basically over before it began as they won only one of their first nine games. The Lions did finish the season better then the Magpies though, with 3 wins in their final 6 games, including a thumping 67 point over Collingwood in round 21. That was the only clash of the season between the two in 2014, and it was a night from hell for the Pies with further injuries and the heavy loss all but ending their finals hopes.
The obvious point of promotion for this game will be Dayne Beams. The star midfielder decided to leave Collingwood during the trade period and the club obliged, trading him to Brisbane. While there will be some ill feeling from Magpie fans towards Beams, it probably won't spill over onto the field. Beams though is a very handy addition to an already strong Lions midfield.
PREVIOUS FORM
Pre season form can be misleading, but it's the only form we have to go on leading into this round 1 clash. Collingwood began the NAB challenge in style, disposing of an under manned Hawthorn outfit by 44 points in Launceston. They followed that up with a close loss to Carlton at Bendigo, a result that no one really criticised or applauded. The final matchup of the pre season competition though would be of concern for the coaching staff at Collingwood. They went into the game against the Bulldogs in Melbourne as favourites, yet from very early in the contest it was clear the Magpies were never going to be in the game. The Pies only won one quarter and eventually went down by 61 points in a rather embarrassing performance. The loss wasn't the worst thing to happen on the night, with tough midfielder Levi Greenwood, joining the Pies as part of the Beams deal, going down with an ankle injury that would rule him out for the first 2 months of the season. It was a poor end to the pre season and really leaves us with no real indication as to just how good (or bad) this Collingwood outfit will be.
Brisbane on the other hand had an impressive pre season campaign. They started off with a close win over St Kilda in Brisbane where Dayne Beams starred with a best on ground performance. Next up was their most impressive performance, a 36 point win over last years' grand finalists Sydney in Coffs Harbour, where Josh Green showed why he is becoming one of the most dangerous small forwards in the AFL. The Lions finished their pre season fixtures with a game against local rivals the Gold Coast Suns. The game never reached any great heights until the final few moments when instinct took over as both teams fought for a win. When the siren sounded the scores were level and the Lions would have been happy with their pre season endeavours. Based just on NAB Challenge form they definitely look to be ahead of Collingwood at this stage.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Collingwood enter season 2015 as an under estimated side. There's yet to be anyone in the media that considers them a chance of playing finals, yet there is intense pressure from the same group on coach Nathan Buckley. That is kind of an oxymoron but internally that won't have any bearing on what happens this season. What will determine how the Pies go this season is the improvement from within the group. The additions of experienced players Travis Varcoe, Levi Greenwood and Jack Crisp may well help in the short term but it's the youngsters at Collingwood who will ultimately decide if this club moves forward on field or not. The Magpies have through trading, acquired 7 first round draft picks over the last 3 seasons, and it's those highly rated youngsters that hold the key to the improvement of the list. The problem with this is that most of those players aren't ready to be consistent AFL performers yet so it's most likely the Magpies will have yet another inconsistent season.
Heading into this game the Magpies are relatively healthy with only a handful of first choice players unavailable for the trip to Brisbane. The loss of Greenwood and the unavailability of Reid, Freeman and Seedsman is a concern but there are still a fair group contesting to be selected for this game. Jarrod Witts and Tim Broomhead impressed in a VFL hitout last Thursday and both surely will be close to selection for this game. Whether the Pies choose to go with two permanent ruckman in Witts and Brodie Grundy is one question up for debate, with Brisbane having two very capable rucks of their own (Leuenberger and Martin). The major concern for the Magpies in this game may well be their ability to score, with both delivery inside the forward zone and accuracy when shooting at goal a major problem last season. The reliance on Travis Cloke is still there and the Pies need to find someone to assist him, with White, Grundy, Witts and Gault among those in contention to do so. Collingwood can win this game, it doesn't mean they will, but by no means are they out of this and if they perform to their best, they will win.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
Brisbane go into season 2015 with the hope of improving on a 15th placed finish. There weren't too many positives for the Lions in 2014 with only one loss under 10 points and plenty of big margins, but the way they finished the season was better then their start. Coming into this season though they have undoubtedly strengthened their list. The addition of Beams, Christensen and Robinson adds much needed experience to one of the youngest lists in the AFL and makes their midfield one of the more formidable in the league. The loss of Joel Patfull to GWS and the retirement of club legends Jonathon Brown and Ashley McGrath will hurt although the latter two didn't have much of an impact last season anyway. The Lions self titled “mosquito fleet” is their strength, and while there are questions regarding their key position stocks the Lions will be an exciting team to watch this year.
The area of most concern for the Lions is their defense. Daniel Merrett spent a lot of time up forward last season and it hurt the Lions backline, with Brisbane conceding the third most points of the 18 AFL clubs. The good news is Merrett will return to the backline this season which will help a struggling young defense. Apart from Merrett there is improvement in this area though with high hopes for young key position players Darcy Gardiner and Justin Clarke. The loss of Pearce Hanley with a hip injury will hurt the Lions run off half back but with Adcock, Beams (of the Claye variety) and Daniel Rich slated to play off half back, there should still be sufficient drive out of defense. The Collingwood forward line has it's own problems with a heavy reliance on Cloke and Elliott so the Lions defense should be able to be effective this weekend.
Without doubt the section of the ground where Brisbane will look to dominate Collingwood, and other teams, is the midfield. Led by two class ruckman in Matthew Leuenberger and Stefan Martin. New captain Tom Rockliff and boom recruit Dayne Beams will lead the mosquito squad with names like Zorko, Taylor, Aish, Christensen, Mayes and Redden making up a very impressive midfield grouping. The Lions midfield possesses the kryptonite of Collingwood if you will, pace. The Pies don't possess a lot of pacy small mids with their youngsters the quickest of the probable group. The Lions ran the Pies off their feet at the MCG last season and while the predicted wet weather may slow the game down a bit, it's the one out right area that the Lions have an advantage in. Collingwood though has it's stars to feed of, with Swan, Sidebottom and the amazing Scott Pendlebury leading the way. Most say a game is won or lost in the midfield and this clash may be no different.
The Lions forward line is a work in progress with the loss of the immortal Jonathon Brown requiring a restructure of their attacking set up. Youngster like McStay and Close will be called upon to fill the void early on in the season but you feel the majority of the Lions scoring will come from their small forwards and midfielders. They do have one of the best small forwards in the league with Josh Green kicking 33 goals last season to lead the club in scoring. The loss of Brown will hurt but his loss was going to come at some point so it's time to move on for the Lions. The Collingwood backline they will come up against has also lost some experience with Maxwell and Lumumba moving on. That may even the ledger a bit and once again pace will be the weapon the Lions will look to use to exploit the Pies.
Brisbane should be an improved team in 2015 with the classy additions and the natural improvement of their youngsters. Whether that translates to a dramatic move up the ladder or not is yet to be seen but a round 1 win at home would boost their chances. The Lions will start favourites, and rightfully so, but there isn't any real exposed form so anything can happen on the night.
TEAMS
TIP
The early rounds of an AFL season are always the hardest to tip especially when you have two teams who struggled the season before. The home ground advantage obviously favours the Lions although they only won 3 of 11 games at the Gabba last season. The Pies generally travel well interstate and the forecast wet weather would favour the visitors more then the locals.
I see the midfield’s as fairly even with both forward lines being flawed in many ways, which leaves the defense as the area where one team might be dominant. It's in that area, in the ability to restrict a sides score that I favour the Magpies and therefore I believe they will start their season off with a win.
MAGPIES BY 11 POINTS.
