AFL ROUND 1

[spence]

I think the best bet this week without question is Brisbane. Matthew Boyd has now been ruled out of the game, if there wasn't any doubt that Brisbane would win before that news there is clearly no doubt now. Obviously odds aren't amazing luckily I got on them at $1.50 but I just put another bet on the line -66.5 paying $10. i genuinely think they will win by around that mark and I think it's worth a $10 or $20 dollar bet.

I also have a free bet, but I can't place it on the Brisbane Bulldogs game what do people suggest I put it on?

 

[TheKanga]

I think the best bet this week without question is Brisbane. Matthew Boyd has now been ruled out of the game, if there wasn't any doubt that Brisbane would win before that news there is clearly no doubt now. Obviously odds aren't amazing luckily I got on them at $1.50 but I just put another bet on the line -66.5 paying $10. i genuinely think they will win by around that mark and I think it's worth a $10 or $20 dollar bet.

I also have a free bet, but I can't place it on the Brisbane Bulldogs game what do people suggest I put it on?

Maybe put your free bet on Gold Coast (win) @ 3.65 (or better odds if you can find them)
Gold Coast (1-39) @ 4.00
or
Gold Coast (+22.5) @ 1.90

I think they a sneaky chance this week, i think the Saints have a few players out.

 

[Ilike2play]

Why does every other book have their markets up??? And TAB only has h2h markets up so far.....is it too much to ask by Wednesday u have more then h2h market up??? Idiots!

Rant over!

 

[Lensen]

This round is pretty crap for betting, the only game that I'm 99% sure of the result is Brisbane (-17.5) beating Bulldogs.
Their midfield is nonexistent and they have no one to contain Jonathan Brown.
Everything else I'll be avoiding.

why do you feel you have to be 99% sure of the result to bet on a game

 

[yamahamoto]

Why does every other book have their markets up??? And TAB only has h2h markets up so far.....is it too much to ask by Wednesday u have more then h2h market up??? Idiots!

Rant over!

on the same boat just waiting for TAb to release tribet for the brisbane game to pound it....hoping for about $1.80

 

[Lensen]

on the same boat just waiting for TAb to release tribet for the brisbane game to pound it....hoping for about $1.80

its already up, $1.75

 

[free at last]

How about no Hodge, no Rioli, no Lake, no Suckling and an underdone Hale?

$hit...Varcoe SJ replacement? Duncan to cover for Kelly?

Now I'm swinging back towards the mighty cats.

 

[Ilike2play]

Brisbane over 39.5 @ tab 3.35 (that's criminal!!)

Should be around the $4 mark...

 

[yamahamoto]

its already up, $1.75

i will wait for the line then...willing to give 3-4 points to get $1.90...$1.75 is borderline for me...i dont bet on odds lower than that

 

[fryzie]

How about no Hodge, no Rioli, no Lake, no Suckling and an underdone Hale?

Might as well throw Whitcross and Clint Young in there if you're including Suckling.

Rioli and Lake are still a chance to play and Hale is third tall after Buddy and Roughy.

I'm not saying Hawks will win, I'm just saying it's a bit more uncertain and I think Geelong's depth is a little young to be missing the likes of Kelly, S.J and an experienced ruck. Their replacement ruck is the steeplechase runner being elevated off the rookie list.

I hope you're right and you win, but I'm not betting on the game because I just don't see it as a lock bet just because of the mental edge factor.

 

[Substance]

i will wait for the line then...willing to give 3-4 points to get $1.90...$1.75 is borderline for me...i dont bet on odds lower than that

What if it's value?

 

[yamahamoto]

Everyone bet differently. I don't bet on low odds so if even if I lose I wouldn't feel as bad. You can still lose on a value bet

 

[McCauley]

How about no Hodge, no Rioli, no Lake, no Suckling and an underdone Hale?

Your right and the Hawks look already under done at this time of the year.

NAB Cup can be used as guide, its not definitive, but definitely tells you whether a team has momentum or not.

 

[McCauley]

Keep backing Geelong please, I want Hawks to get close to $2 before I place my bet.

If Hawks get to $2 I will hedge and happily take the soft option. Although I will look at +24.5 and +39.5

 

[McCauley]

Probably because Port are just a very ordinary team. Sure Melbourne are no good either but I really don't get the optimism around Port.

They have had a solid NAB Cup and are up and running. I think the odds represent the money coming in for the Power as they have strong momentum for R1.

 

[Footy Smarts]

They have had a solid NAB Cup and are up and running. I think the odds represent the money coming in for the Power as they have strong momentum for R1.

Did they though?

They thumped an under-strength and tired StKilda, got done by a very weak Crows team, were beaten by a second string Melbourne, then beat West Coast and Sydney (the team everybody knows doesn't care about preseason). I'm not saying they were awful but they weren't overly impressive either. I certainly wouldn't be taking a dead rubber in Alice Springs or a preseason game against Sydney as a clear indication of impressive form.

No doubt the shift in odds represents the money coming in. I just don't understand why the money is coming in at all.

 

[lamaros]

NAB Cup results mean next to nothing. Only game time for players matters.

Essendon's first team lost to Richmond's reserves in the NAB. That same first team then beat Adelaide in Adelaide, because all of the players had played to fitness in the NAB cup.

 

[McCauley]

Did they though?

They thumped an under-strength and tired StKilda, got done by a very weak Crows team, were beaten by a second string Melbourne, then beat West Coast and Sydney (the team everybody knows doesn't care about preseason). I'm not saying they were awful but they weren't overly impressive either. I certainly wouldn't be taking a dead rubber in Alice Springs or a preseason game against Sydney as a clear indication of impressive form.

No doubt the shift in odds represents the money coming in. I just don't understand why the money is coming in at all.

hmmm maybe the Adelaide hype made me think differently.

The game is IMO 50:50 maybe slight advantage to the Dee's at home, but the Power did beat them last year and have improved apparently since then.

I dont rate those 40 minute games, so in effect lost to Dee's and beat Eagles and Swans. Not sure if the Power was at full strength or not I think maybe not.

I know for the Crows game, they rested a lot of players.

 

[McCauley]

NAB Cup results mean next to nothing. Only game time for players matters.

Essendon's first team lost to Richmond's reserves in the NAB. That same first team then beat Adelaide in Adelaide, because all of the players had played to fitness in the NAB cup.

There was a stat though that showed, those that made the final for the last few years has gone on to be in the Top 8.

 

[fryzie]

There was a stat though that showed, those that made the final for the last few years has gone on to be in the Top 8.

I don't think that's a particularly surprising or insightful stat that teams good enough to win all their games in the NAB Cup generally go on to be in the top 8 sides for the year.

Some teams just don't take the pre-season all that seriously.

Richmond had a solid pre-season in 2012, winning almost all of their games while Carlton didn't win a single game from memory.

Round 1 Carlton won by 40 odd points.

Pre-Season means very little come season proper.

 

[lamaros]

There was a stat though that showed, those that made the final for the last few years has gone on to be in the Top 8.

In the last two years? Since the round robbin reduced games crap came in the pre-season has meant nothing.

The system has become less and less competitive every year.

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

Not going to touch Carlton vs. Richmond
I have literally no idea who will win that one.

Thinking of backing Brisbane at the line (-13.5)
And perhaps Brisbane by (40+)

In the last two encounters Brisbane have won by 58pts & 67pts
I think Brisbane are a much better side than in 2012.
The only question is how bad are the Bulldogs going to be?

That, and who's going to win b/w Tigers and Blues.

Tigers convincingly.
7 goals!

 

[spence]

Thoughts on this multi?

Brisbane -31-.5 (line) into
Gold Coast +22.5 into
Port Adelaide -20.5 (line)

odds $17.28 Sportsbet

 

[McCauley]

In the last two years? Since the round robbin reduced games crap came in the pre-season has meant nothing.

The system has become less and less competitive every year.

NAB CUP

2013 ??????????????????????
2012 - grand finalists - Crows - Eagles - Top 8
2011 - Dons and Pies - Top 8
2010 - Bullies/ Saints - Top 8
2009 - Pies/ Cats - Top 8

4 consecutive years if you make the GF in NAB Cup you have made the 8 in that year.

 

[fryzie]

NAB CUP

2013 ??????????????????????
2012 - grand finalists - Crows - Eagles - Top 8
2011 - Dons and Pies - Top 8
2010 - Bullies/ Saints - Top 8
2009 - Pies/ Cats - Top 8

4 consecutive years if you make the GF in NAB Cup you have made the 8 in that year.

So?

A lot of teams treat it as simply match conditioning and others a time to play around with new gameplans, positions etc... Not many actually take it seriously. Those who do are usually younger sides on the improve trying to get their momentum up heading into the season proper.

Sydney, Hawks and West Coast all had terribly average pre-seasons and are the three favourites for the Flag.