AFL ROUND 1

[KENT2008]

it's over, public lose again, betstar finally get a fav that loses, law of averages....

 

[Ilike2play]

Totally agree they thought it was in the bag before they got off the plane....

 

[KENT2008]

flipping lions screwed everyone last year rnd 1 by beating the demons when dees were favoured to win, now they do this...so pi##ed off

 

[Willzzz]

Ahh bugger, why did i take the impulsive last minute lions 1-39 points after telling myself all week i wasn't going to touch it.
Here's to hoping my Under 185.5 hits.

 

[KENT2008]

i don't remember seeing such a huge fav, along with a huge swing in odds (1.90- 1.20ish) lose this badly -25.5 fav losing by 60+, thats nearly a 90pt swing

 

[Falcons]

Carn Doggies

 

[Willzzz]

i don't remember seeing such a huge fav, along with a huge swing in odds (1.90- 1.20ish) lose this badly -25.5 fav losing by 60+, thats nearly a 90pt swing

Umm, I distinctly remember this happening the corresponding game last round last year between these two team. It was like Lions $4.00, Doggies $1.25. .
I remember so clearly because I took the Lions 1-39 @ $5, only to see them smash the doggies by 70+.
Remind me never to bet on the game between these two teams ever again.

 

[TheKanga]

Very glad i didn't put any money on Brisbane now lol

Footy is just as unpredictable as soccer at times.

 

[desTROY]

Carn Doggies

Under 40 for me though..

 

[Falcons]

Under 40 for me though..

haha ok good luck mate hope the lions peg a few back for ya

 

[KENT2008]

lions decide to screw even the dogs 1-39 backers lol

 

[Willzzz]

Oh for goodness sakes!! 186 Total Points. Give me a break! S
haun Higgins point with 10 secs left after the simplest dropped mark by that Brisbane player.
Also, that Daniel Merrett mark 5 mins before was inside the field of play!

 

[Falcons]

Guess what the default selection was if you didnt put your tip in for Sportingbet LMS..........

 

[Probitas_]

So all up for round 1 (bets are recorded through the various threads both on here and Bay13) Just throwing them here so I can keep them together.

(line challenge)
1U - North vs Collingwood -14.5 @ 1.91
1U - Dogs vs Brisbane -13.5 @ 1.91

.5U- Brisbane vs Bulldogs
Melbourne vs Port
Hawthorn vs Geelong @ 8.72

(bay13 $10, lennys $20)
1U - Dogs vs Brisbane @ 1.60
2U - Dogs vs Brisbane @ 1.55

I'll be pretty irked if Brisbane don't come through on this.

GOOD JOB BRISBANE!
You can only laugh really, what a thumping.

 

[Substance]

-6u on the lions 3u @ the 1.90 and another 3 at -12.5

...ouch

YTD 1-2 -5.04u

 

[Lensen]

Pretty good lesson for everyone here on bankroll management, TBH.

 

[Prudster]

Wow, i missed the Betstar $2 favourites promo for Brisbane because it ended after like 5 minutes. Looks like i got lucky on that one. I also missed Saint Kilda @ $2 because my internet cut out, so i would bet on GC everyone

 

[McCrann]

I put 1 unit on Brisbane a couple of weeks ago at $1.68. Like most people, I liked them when they were $1.90 but I was too lazy / couldn't be stuffed backing them at that price so far out from the game.

If the game pans out the way I am expecting, I am hoping to put another 1-2 units on Brisbane through live betting during the game, providing their odds get out to $1.90+. All it will take is the Bulldogs holding a lead of about two goals at any stage during the first half for those odds to display.

Ouch!

 

[McCrann]

i've got a hedge or not to hedge moment coming up next weekend.
Potential win of just under $600.I need the lions (last leg of a 3 leg multi) to beat the dogs,but I can guarantee a profit if I back the doggies too.

Hope you hedged..... Wouldn't have cost much after Boyd got injured.

 

[Probitas_]

Pretty good lesson for everyone here on bankroll management, TBH.

Can't speak for everyone else, but all bar one of mine were in the various challenge threads. So while I made an early exit from every one of them, no impact on the bankroll.

 

[McCrann]

Why do people hedge on these sort of bets? As soon as you hedge the bet you are giving money straight to the bookie win or lose. If you are placing a 3 leg multi and planning on hedging if the first 2 legs get up then i dont understand why people dont just place a 2 leg multi then outlay a portion of winnings from that on the 3rd bet. Going in knowing you are going to hedge you are just backing both teams at $1.90 which doesnt make sense to me.

Because the odds change.

If by making a 3 leg bet you get a team at $1.90 - is it better to take that team at $1.90 or wait for the first couple of legs and then get the same bet on at $1.30.

Tell me - is it better to get the $1.90 or wait and get the $1.30???

 

[Taylor]

I've been playing the time of the first goal scored. So far I've won both bets at $5.00ish odds.

It's going pretty well.

I wonder what the odds, before the start of the game, for a 60+ win to the Dogs were.

 

[Lensen]

Because the odds change.

If by making a 3 leg bet you get a team at $1.90 - is it better to take that team at $1.90 or wait for the first couple of legs and then get the same bet on at $1.30.

Tell me - is it better to get the $1.90 or wait and get the $1.30???

its pretty clear he was talking about the usual multi types who do a six leg multi paying $30 then get nervous when 5/6 get up and feel the compulsion to hedge to "get something"

 

[Willzzz]

Well played GWS!
Lets go Saints, hope they cover the spread.

 

[liam_13]

If anyone is looking for a pattern in Total Game Points, every game has been over the line this round.

Game / TGP line / TGP result / Over-Under
Adel-Esse / 186.5 / 199 / Over
WC-Frem / 170.5 / 188 / Over
Carl-Rich / 189.5 / 207 / Over
WB-Bris / 184.5 / 186 / Over
GWS-Syd / 175.5 / 182 / Over

I don't have the odds/lines for last year, but last years round 1 games had TP of:
GWS-Syd - 137
Rich-Carl - 206
Haw-Coll - 252
Melb-Bris - 197
GC-Adel - 205
Frem-Geel - 206
North-Esse - 206
WB-WC - 223
Port-StK - 174

2011:
Carl-Rich - 188
Geel-StK - 95
Coll-Port - 235
Adel-Haw - 190
Bris-Frem - 186
Esse-WB - 171
Melb-Syd - 168
WC-North - 180

Only 5 games I would consider low scoring.
Suggests to me that round 1 games can end up being a lot more open compared to once the gritty stuff starts. Teams have lapses etc and goals get kicked. Thinking load up on North/Coll Over 188.5 @ $1.88.
Staying away from GC-St Kilda, Melbourne-Port and Hawks-Geelong but wouldn't be surprised if the first and third went over their respective lines (188.5 and 196.5) as well