AFL Round 12

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Got a certainty for tonight and another pretty good one.

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Gold Coast V North Melbourne (GCS)
Date of Event: 11-06-2011
Time of Event: 19:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: Zach Smith to have more match DT points than Nathan Bock
Odds: $1.7
Units: 10
Sportsbook: Sportingbet
Comments: Smith has beaten him 5 out of the last 5 matches. Baring injury this is a deadset lock.

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Gold Coast V North Melbourne (GCS)
Date of Event: 11-06-2011
Time of Event: 19:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: North Melbourne over 107.5 match points
Odds: $1.9
Units: 7
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: This should be a free flowing affair
 

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Goldy is a pretty good ruckman, and Smith has to share the ruck with Fraser now. Bock gets a heap of cheap kicks in the backline. It's no certainty.
 
I love how Dead heat rules apply for most disposals h2h's, yet with more goals than behinds and vice versa the bets are refunded rather than using dead heat rules.

Confusing much?
 
I took WC by 40+
I took total match points OVER 173.5

Quite annoyed right now.

unlucky

My philosophy is that it is always dangerous to bet on things that the teams/players are not trying to achieve. That is why I have never bet on over and under. I have never put money on a team to win 40+ either although I have put money on 1-39 before.

I think 1-39 is different though as both teams are trying to win so both teams are trying to achieve something if you know what I mean. Once it gets to 40 the other team probably doesn't think they are going to win anymore especially late in the game so neither team is really trying to achieve anything. One or two more goals to either team doesn't make too much difference to the players in achieving any pre match targets.
 
Adelaide vs West Coast
Most Goals
2 units - Le Cras (5) @ $8.00 @ Centrebet; 1 unit - Tippett (0) @ $5.50 @ Sportsbet, Gunston (2) @ $41.00 @ Sportsbet

Most Disposals
Group A - Thompson (26) @ $3.75 to beat...Van Berlo (20), Johncock (26), Vince (22), Kerr (27), Priddis (20), Rosa (31), Embley (29)
Group B - A.Selwood (23) @ $9.00 to beat...Reilly (16), Douglas (22), Jaensch (15), Sloane (19), Shuey (21), S.Selwood (21), Hurn (22)

2 units at $33.75

Le Cras = 2 units placed, 16 units returned :)
Tippett = 1 unit placed, 0 units returned
Gunston = 1 unit placed, 0 units returned
Thompson x A.Selwood = 2 units placed, 0 units returned

6 units placed, 16 units returned



Very close to a big pay out. :(
 

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1 UNIT J KELLY MOST DISPOSALS GROUP A VS ENRIGHT, MACKIE, GUERRA, BIRCHALL, SHIELS, SUCKLING, JOHNSON
.2 UNITS MITCHELL GROUP B INTO ABLETT GROUP A INTO ADAMS GROUP B
.2 UNITS ADAMS GROUP B INTO D. SWALLOW GROUP A INTO MITCHELL GROUP B
. 3 UNITS HARRIS GROUP B INTO KELLY GROUP A INTO ABLETT GROUP A
.3 UNITS KELLY GROUP A INTO SELWOOD GROUP B INTO ABLETT GROUP A

Lost 1 unit today on R. Douglas. Very dissapointing end to the game. Finished on 22 but A. Selwood pipped him.:mad:

Need Geelong 1-19 and G. Ablett most touches to finish off Parlay 2.
 
Bartel to get more disposals than Hodge is 2.05 at Centrebet. Bartel averaging 1 more than Hodge this year and Ling will be all over Hodgey.

On this already, looks the bet of the night in my eyes.

Is it raining up at GC stadium because the game total started at 193.5 and is now into 181.5, what is the weather like up there and in Melbourne at the moment guys?
 
My philosophy is that it is always dangerous to bet on things that the teams/players are not trying to achieve. That is why I have never bet on over and under.

A rather simplistic view to have. Defensive players are trying to prevent scoring (and keep opposition scoring under any total), whilst offensive players are trying to score as much as possible (over any total).
 
1 UNIT J KELLY MOST DISPOSALS GROUP A VS ENRIGHT, MACKIE, GUERRA, BIRCHALL, SHIELS, SUCKLING, JOHNSON
.2 UNITS MITCHELL GROUP B INTO ABLETT GROUP A INTO ADAMS GROUP B
.2 UNITS ADAMS GROUP B INTO D. SWALLOW GROUP A INTO MITCHELL GROUP B
. 3 UNITS HARRIS GROUP B INTO KELLY GROUP A INTO ABLETT GROUP A
.3 UNITS KELLY GROUP A INTO SELWOOD GROUP B INTO ABLETT GROUP A

Lost 1 unit today on R. Douglas. Very dissapointing end to the game. Finished on 22 but A. Selwood pipped him.:mad:

Need Geelong 1-19 and G. Ablett most touches to finish off Parlay 2.


Oi ease up on the text will ya. Its like your yelling typing in caps. Everyone here can read lowercase. Well........ I assume so
 
A rather simplistic view to have. Defensive players are trying to prevent scoring (and keep opposition scoring under any total), whilst offensive players are trying to score as much as possible (over any total).

I disagree the aim of both the defenders and attackers in one team is to score more points then their opponents. St Kilda is a good example there game plan is not to score as much as possible. when there is 3 minutes left in the second quarter why do player play kick to kick sometimes. They want to control the tempo and momentum of the game in the aim of winning. They want to win they don't care how many points they have or there opponents have as long as they have more points.
 

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AFL Round 12

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