AFL Round 15

[Jobe Watson]

Just a quick question, what agency would you guys say have the most options? What do you use? I currently use Sportsbet but they don't seem to have too many options (can't bet on most Brownlow votes per team for example). I see that some of you guys place bets on DT points and most disposals for groups, which sites offer things like these? Cheers.

 

[DT_35]

Just a quick question, what agency would you guys say have the most options? What do you use? I currently use Sportsbet but they don't seem to have too many options (can't bet on most Brownlow votes per team for example). I see that some of you guys place bets on DT points and most disposals for groups, which sites offer things like these? Cheers.

I use Sportingbet, it doesn't have most DT points, but it does have Most Disposals for Groups. It also has 'x player' more goals than behinds (usually pays about $1.50). Can't remember any others off the top of my head.

It's got a great variety of different things, I have used Sportsbet before, and would say Sportingbet is easily the better of the two.

 

[RequiemBlade]

I use Sportingbet, it doesn't have most DT points, but it does have Most Disposals for Groups. It also has 'x player' more goals than behinds (usually pays about $1.50). Can't remember any others off the top of my head.

It's got a great variety of different things, I have used Sportsbet before, and would say Sportingbet is easily the better of the two.

Sportingbet actually does have betting for DT points; based on position, H2H2H, and most points in group. It's under Superstars Fantasy Sports in AFL.

 

[Jobe Watson]

I use Sportingbet, it doesn't have most DT points, but it does have Most Disposals for Groups. It also has 'x player' more goals than behinds (usually pays about $1.50). Can't remember any others off the top of my head.

It's got a great variety of different things, I have used Sportsbet before, and would say Sportingbet is easily the better of the two.

Thanks for that mate.

 

[DT_35]

Sportingbet actually does have betting for DT points; based on position, H2H2H, and most points in group. It's under Superstars Fantasy Sports in AFL.

Oh really?
I always wondered what 'Fantasy Sports' was. Never had a chance to look, but thanks

 

[adii_7]

pies u, melb u , adel u, geel u, st k u, freo u. get on board

 

[2notepockets]

Re: those backing the Hawks at the line, you still looking at this with Mitchell out? in the last 3 games all of which have been under 2 goals he has had 30, 34 and 38 touches, but in the '08 GF he was pretty quiet stats wise. Just sayin.

I was considering going either under 15.5 with a free bet from backing sydney as highest scoring loser last week, but now think this may be a bad idea.

If essendon regain a few players i may look to them this week instead @ 1.90, seems pretty good to me against the dees, who as happens with most young sides seem on a bit of a downer.

 

[Jammer]

Yeah bit of a blow with no Mitchell....... Been flying and Hawks have not won a game this year where he has not played.
Means that Hodge gets the hard Ling Tag......

I've reduced my stakes by 33%...... You might now get a + 20.5 line
on the Hawks which i still think is good value

 

[Lensen]

Bit of juice around this week, so if a few things go right could be a nice little week

I think Geelong are winners but the Hawks are well overs, just like they were vs the Bulldogs. Happy to take a small risk at the odds. $10 on Hawthorn @ $3.262

I actually think the Eagles at home are winners this week. They've played four good teams in a row there and have gone 1-3 and been competitive in two others. Adelaide are just no good on the road (no wins) and I'm pretty confident the Eagles can snap their streak. $20 on West Coast @ $2.77

Richmond are probably slightly overs, they've had a good few weeks and I'm not sure on Freo without Barlow. Not real confident but a half unit bet is a good move I think. $10 on Richmond @ $2.70

Sydney/North is probably a 53/47ish game, very close, so snapping up North @ $2.90. Hopefully Bradshaw misses again or is underdone. $10 on North Melbourne @ $2.93

And Carlton have a terrific record recently against the Dogs and I reckon I've missed out every time. Not this time. $20 on Carlton @ $2.65

Port/Collingwood's odds are pretty spot on I reckon whilst the Saints are slight overs but not enough to bet on that short. Melbourne/Essendon I don't really know and not willing to take the $2/$1.95 on offer respectively.

 

[Cuzz09]

Think I'll wait for the teams to be announced on Thursday night.

Cant see us beating Adelaide but then we normally play alright against them at Subi and we have played welll in the wet and I think thats what is being forecast.

Might go Eagles line...we'll see....

 

[Lakey91]

The good thing about those punts Lenny29 is that you only really need 1-2 bets to get up and your gonna just about break even (obviously depending on which two). Everything else is just a bonus then.

There will be a few upsets, so now you just need to sit tight and hope they go your way.

Best of luck.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Bit of juice around this week, so if a few things go right could be a nice little week

I think Geelong are winners but the Hawks are well overs, just like they were vs the Bulldogs. Happy to take a small risk at the odds. $10 on Hawthorn @ $3.262

I actually think the Eagles at home are winners this week. They've played four good teams in a row there and have gone 1-3 and been competitive in two others. Adelaide are just no good on the road (no wins) and I'm pretty confident the Eagles can snap their streak. $20 on West Coast @ $2.77

Richmond are probably slightly overs, they've had a good few weeks and I'm not sure on Freo without Barlow. Not real confident but a half unit bet is a good move I think. $10 on Richmond @ $2.70

Sydney/North is probably a 53/47ish game, very close, so snapping up North @ $2.90. Hopefully Bradshaw misses again or is underdone. $10 on North Melbourne @ $2.93

And Carlton have a terrific record recently against the Dogs and I reckon I've missed out every time. Not this time. $20 on Carlton @ $2.65

Port/Collingwood's odds are pretty spot on I reckon whilst the Saints are slight overs but not enough to bet on that short. Melbourne/Essendon I don't really know and not willing to take the $2/$1.95 on offer respectively.

I notice all your bets are H2H. Just interested to know if you still take teams straight out at $5+ if they are value???

 

[bluegumby]

gonna slap $10 on sydney at home. not sure on the odds but either a line or margin 1-39

with hopefully some value on trent dennis lane to be most goal scored at home. sydney version of pods at home hopefully. otherwise sportingbet has only H2H atm so nothing there i like

 

[Lensen]

I notice all your bets are H2H. Just interested to know if you still take teams straight out at $5+ if they are value???

Definitely.

I give each game a percentage value, roughly, of each team's chances to win. If the odds available represent a 4-5%+ premium on my value, i'll jump on.

So if, for example, I've got a team rated a 30% chance and they're paying $5 (a 20% chance), then I'll jump on.

I use $20 units. I'll put half a unit on teams I rate less than a 50% chance, a full unit on 50-66%, and two units on anyone value that I rate higher.

 

[Lakey91]

gonna slap $10 on sydney at home. not sure on the odds but either a line or margin 1-39

with hopefully some value on trent dennis lane to be most goal scored at home. sydney version of pods at home hopefully. otherwise sportingbet has only H2H atm so nothing there i like

Difference with POD is that he's played VFL all his life, and for a long time with Geelong. He knows skilled stadium (or just the area) like the back of his hand Id imagine.

TDL is a Perth boy.

Im hoping your right though! He did a couple of nice things on the weekend, including a few shots on goal.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Definitely.

I give each game a percentage value, roughly, of each team's chances to win. If the odds available represent a 4-5%+ premium on my value, i'll jump on.

So if, for example, I've got a team rated a 30% chance and they're paying $5 (a 20% chance), then I'll jump on.

I use $20 units. I'll put half a unit on teams I rate less than a 50% chance, a full unit on 50-66%, and two units on anyone value that I rate higher.

Yeah, nice one

I was going to do something similar this year but only thought iit would make sense if I started in Round 1...

So next year I was going to have a $1000 starting bank with, like you $20 units (2% of starting bankroll). I will only bet when I have value. That's where framing your own markets is crucial to winning IMO, and why I should probably focus solely on AFL... Anyway, I'll put half a unit on teams I rate less than a 33% chance of winning; ($3.00+), a full unit on teams rated a 33-66% chance; ($1.50-$3.00), and two units on teams that I rate higher than 66% chance (<$1.50).

Seeing as though you have had success by starting mid year, maybe I should have just gone with it, even if not from round 1

I do believe this sort of strategy will prove to be more profitable in the long run. For instance, instead of taking a positive line of +3.5 it would make sense just to take the outsider straight out, because if you think they can get within 3 points, then obviously they will have a pretty good chance of winning the match.

But yeah, was just interested to know about what you do with big underdogs that are value because I think that we have a greater edge by backing them straight out - If there $5.30 you only need to be right 1 out of 5 times to see profit

 

[soho]

so if port adelaide were $20 this week, you'd have to take them, even though they almost certainty wont win...?

imo, 'only betting when there is value' doesnt really make sense, as you miss out on the bread and butter bets in order to play the higher risk games...

value = risk

take pies and saints this week... both are paying $1.20ish and both are almost dead set sure bets... so why not take the cash rather than look for more risky bets?

id put my house on collingwood and saints winning before putting 10k on richmond winning, even if the pay out was the same... id risk more on a surer bet, than risking less on a lower probability bet...

remember, 'value' means nothing when your team doesnt win...

 

[GoodesStuff]

so if port adelaide were $20 this week, you'd have to take them, even though they almost certainty wont win...?

imo, 'only betting when there is value' doesnt really make sense, as you miss out on the bread and butter bets in order to play the higher risk games...

value = risk

take pies and saints this week... both are paying $1.20ish and both are almost dead set sure bets... so why not take the cash rather than look for more risky bets?

id put my house on collingwood and saints winning before putting 10k on richmond winning, even if the pay out was the same... id risk more on a surer bet, than risking less on a lower probability bet...

remember, 'value' means nothing when your team doesnt win...

If Port were $20 you would be making a big mistake by not taking them. Let me ask you this. Would Port win 1 match against Collingwood if this match was played 20 times?? Im sure they would, and would expect them to win about 3 times, in fact.

As it is, I dont see any real value with the Saints/Collingwood this week. Sure you could risk a lot of money on them and be right most times, but it only takes one loss to lose it all. Like Ive said, I will go significantly larger on selections at $1.50 or shorter, but only when theres value. This way Im not really missing out because Ive waited for the right bet to pull the trigger, and invested more on them.

And I dont know about 'value' means nothing when your team doesnt win..., because sure you probably wouldnt be right this Friday night if you took Port @ 20s, but you have got to look at the bigger picture IMO. This 'value' does mean something in relation to long term success.

 

[Lensen]

so if port adelaide were $20 this week, you'd have to take them, even though they almost certainty wont win...?

Well, I won't back against us, so no I wouldn't. But in theory, yes I would.

imo, 'only betting when there is value' doesnt really make sense, as you miss out on the bread and butter bets in order to play the higher risk games...

value = risk

Of course value brings in risk, but the goal is not to win every bet but to win overall. If my markets are accurate - and that's the key if - then betting for value ensures this.

Using your Port example, I've personally got Port as a 17% chance - meaning I rate them as $6 chances. If my markets are correct, one in six of my $6 chances should win - if I can get them all at $20 then I lose 5 times and win once for an overall profit of 14 units.

take pies and saints this week... both are paying $1.20ish and both are almost dead set sure bets... so why not take the cash rather than look for more risky bets?

Almost dead certs is correct - in fact I have them both as 83% chances. But that still means 1 in 6 times they lose, again with the rider that my markets are correct - so backing them at $1.15 each time means I win 5/6 on average but lose overall.

id put my house on collingwood and saints winning before putting 10k on richmond winning, even if the pay out was the same... id risk more on a surer bet, than risking less on a lower probability bet...

remember, 'value' means nothing when your team doesnt win...

But it's not about one bet, its about steady increase - which I've managed to achieve under this method.

If you have a bankroll of 5k and want to put 2k on a game then value betting probably isn't for you - but unless your judgment is exceptional I'd be surprised if you win long term.

 

[mike262]

freo + Syd Multi looks awesome

 

[Cuzz09]

I cant really see Cousins playing so that will cover the loss of Barlow (sort of) and I think that Freo's backline can hold Riewoldt and after him there isn't a lot.

Fremantle under 39 looks good to me.

Sydney will be fuming for losing to the tigers and back at the SCG and possibly with Bradshaw back I think they will be too strong for North Melbourne.

Sydney under 39 seems good value.

Fremantle under 39 @ $2.20
Sydney under 39 @ $2.20

Multi of $4.84 is worth a go I reckon

 

[SirJimi05]

Oh really?
I always wondered what 'Fantasy Sports' was. Never had a chance to look, but thanks

rofl!!

 

[bigbunyip14]

multi this week will be hawks line, saints win, pies win. @ 2.66

and lions to low score this week @ 5 is good.

 

[DT ELITE]

Might have 3 bets this week that look something like this:
Collingwood / Hawthorn (+24.5) @ $1.90
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.25
Essendon (+24.5) / Carlton (+24.5) @ $2.03

 

[bigbunyip14]

Re Bradshaw: will be out for a few more weeks as he did his hammy in the last session before the tigers match last week. Fml.