AFL Round 15

[bigbunyip14]

Btw does anyone do multis with overs and unders? Like you'd back Carltons game each week to be over 165.5 match points and saints to be under it each week. Does anyone do all 8 games after studying the matches? I'd like to know if it's been done before (on here). I would think it's easier to get right than tip 8.

 

[dUkezz]

West coast/ north / Geelong/ freo will all win mark these words

 

[uptheblues]

Multi this week something along the lines of
Hawks line 18.5+
Sydney under 39.5
West Coast Win
Carlton Win
$28.32

 

[Asahi]

Whats everyone thoughts on west coast to win under 39.5 @ $3.80 looks great value
I think the weather will be nasty over in perth!
I really like cats/pies/saints/dockers H2H and maybe eagles under 39.5?
Thoughts

 

[mattys123]

I'm not putting one dollar on the Eagles until Worsfold is sacked.

I was going to load up on Adelaide, but 1.45 seems shitty value to me.

Might back them to win under 39.5.

 

[The Panther]

Richmond at $2.70 is the value of the week.

-home state.
-good form.
-Tarrant, McPharlin & Grover not playing. Riewoldt to kick a bag.
-The loss of Barlow & the fallout from it.

 

[Asahi]

I'm not putting one dollar on the Eagles until Worsfold is sacked.

I was going to load up on Adelaide, but 1.45 seems shitty value to me.

Might back them to win under 39.5.

Yeah adelaide are way to short! very tough game! matty123 whats your best bet for this week! I reckon swans under 39.5 and freo will win for big sandi 150 and for barlow!

 

[mattys123]

Yeah adelaide are way to short! very tough game! matty123 whats your best bet for this week! I reckon swans under 39.5 and freo will win for big sandi 150 and for barlow!

Short Bet = Stkilda @ 1.21, maybe even to cover 32.5 points @ 2.10
Value Bet = Essendon 1-39 @ 2.66

Will make up my mind after seeing the final teams for each match though.

I'm not a huge fan of this weekends games "betting wise", too many 50/50 scenarios, might take a PYOL multi again for an almost certain return.

Something like;

Collingwood - 11.5
Hawthorn + 35.5
StKilda - 10.5
Sydney + 14.5

@ $3.03.

 

[Lakey91]

Hmmm hard to know what I will go with.

I might just load up big on Saints/Pies multi.

I do have a free bet up my sleave, but might wait for something more appealling, though I might just chuck it on a 4-5 leg multi.

 

[jayjones1]

brisbane to have lowest score of the round they will be lucky to kick 5 goals

 

[Jobe Watson]

Centrebet, Club Leading Goalkickers. Some very interesting odds for a couple of players.

Goodes still $1.70, Bradshaw won't play for at least another week and will be heavily underdone when he gets back, hard to see him overtaking Goodes at this point. Schulz still $3.40, trails Ebert by 2 goals and could easily pip him if he keeps up recent form. Alwyn Davey $4.00, currently leads our goalkicking tally and there's not much competition (Gumbleton is favourite, God know's why), can't see Zaharakis getting ahead.

 

[Barnzy]

Instead of being fancy this week and looking for value I think I may just dump the whole account on the Saints to win @ $1.21. There's no chance in hell they will lose even without Riewoldt, now he's back. They should be $1.05 against an injury depleted, terrible Brisbane.

Well, that or whole account on Saints/Pies multi but that adds more risk.

 

[Cuzz09]

Instead of being fancy this week and looking for value I think I may just dump the whole account on the Saints to win @ $1.21. There's no chance in hell they will lose even without Riewoldt, now he's back. They should be $1.05 against an injury depleted, terrible Brisbane.

Well, that or whole account on Saints/Pies multi but that adds more risk.

Saints over 15.5 @ $1.75 is a sure thing IMO

 

[adii_7]

Saints over 15.5 @ $1.75 is a sure thing IMO

they will win by 33

 

[The Royal Sampler]

If you're thinking of backing the Pies to win @ $1.15, consider backing them instead to win the 1st quarter ($1.30) or the first to 25 points ($1.31).

Win-Loss Record
Collingwood 10-3-1
Port 5-9

1st Quarter Record
Collingwood 11-3
Port 4-10

1st Quarter Differential
Collingwood +201
Port -69

I think there's a case to be made that Collingwood are actually more likely to win the first quarter than the match, albeit that they're very likely to win both.

 

[dUkezz]

Really considering putting a very large sum of cash on

wce +15.5
north +17.5
Geelong
collingwood
stkilda


Can't see it losing any opinions on it

 

[Barnzy]

Saints over 15.5 @ $1.75 is a sure thing IMO

Oh yep. Like the look of that.

 

[mike262]

Really considering putting a very large sum of cash on

wce +15.5
north +17.5
Geelong
collingwood
stkilda


Can't see it losing any opinions on it

wce +24.5
and Sydney Win seems safer.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Really considering putting a very large sum of cash on

wce +15.5
north +17.5
Geelong
collingwood
stkilda


Can't see it losing any opinions on it

I could see WCE letting you down there. Yes, they're at home, but they're also in line to win the wooden spoon.

 

[Cuzz09]

Saints over 15.5 @ $1.75 is a sure thing IMO

Oh yep. Like the look of that.

ah whoops sorry that was over 25 for $1.75

over 15.5 is about $1.43

They should win by 50+ IMO

 

[Cuzz09]

Really considering putting a very large sum of cash on

wce +15.5
north +17.5
Geelong
collingwood
stkilda


Can't see it losing any opinions on it

Honestly cant see us winning and if Adelaide get a run on they could win by more than 15 points....

Also can picture Sydney winning by 4-5 goals...

Also wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks beat Geelong...

Also got a funny feeling about port tomorrow night (thats why im staying away from that game)

Saints should win though

Id go....

Adelaide 1-39
Sydney 1-39
Hawthorn +18.5
St.Kilda 25+

Odds of about $16

 

[dUkezz]

Thanx for the opinions guys

all week I've sayd wce will win comfortably n I stand by that crows r rubbish
Sydney out of form no Bradshaw goodees not firing with a inform north side with Petrie in aswell

mite load up on it still I'll see how I feel tomorow I'll post it on here if I do put it on

 

[soho]

id take a leg or two out if you're loading up...

get rid of soe of the risk... but then again, you gotta be in it to win it, and may as well play to win...

im sticking with saints + pies...

might drop a few k on it

 

[Lakey91]

dUkezz you have to remember Adelaide was close to top 4 last year, and made the finals 6-7 years in a row or something similar. Furthermore, did you see Goodes' second half last week? I think he may have turned the corner...

 

[dUkezz]

Yeah I no but still without Bradshaw I can't see them kicking a huge score therefore north should stay within 3 goals if not win it

anyways I got a $5 multi for fun I did last nite
dulko 2-0.... ($1.55) was up 5-0 then got retired
cornet (2.40) won 6-0 6-4
medina (1.42) won 7-5 6-3
penneta craybas over 17.5 (2.05) 6-4 6-4

now the legs still to come
coll -32.5 (1.90)
Geelong u39.5 (2.25)
west coast h2h (2.65)
freo h2h (1.50)
north +17.5 (1.90)
essendon h2h (1.95)
total odds $681.78 (now $439)

put 5 on it for fun payout of 3408 (now 2195)