AFL ROUND 18

[eastcoastcrow]

Jesus and Hercules based on his confidence. Geelong are just a silly price. Adelaide deserve to be favourites, that looks completely arse about. Freo are waaaaay overs at 1.65 that won't last. If GWS Put out the same team as this week the pies could hit 200pts, they just might anyway.

I was actually thinking that the Cats would be underdogs for this match and was looking at the handicap for them!

I was surprised to see the Crows as much as $2.40 and the Cats as short as $1.55 when you consider that before the last round the odds would have been arguably reversed.

The possible exclusion of Scarlett and Stevie J and again you have to wonder how the Crows are overs for this match?

If it is a dirty wet cold windy day in Geelong, I would back the Cats though!

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Have already put one early multi on and that is

ADEL H2H
RICH H2H
FREO H2H

Paying $6.80.

Will put a few more multi's on later in the week and will make Freo my anchor in all my multi's this week.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

Have already put one early multi on and that is

ADEL H2H
RICH H2H
FREO H2H

Paying $6.80.

Will put a few more multi's on later in the week and will make Freo my anchor in all my multi's this week.

While I like your bet, your making Freo your anchor for all your bets this weekend???

May God be with you this weekend.

 

[The_Doctor]

While I like your bet, your making Freo your anchor for all your bets this weekend???

May God be with you this weekend.

Fremantle have beaten every team lower than them on the ladder this year except Carlton (who were going well at the time)

 

[HurlsMeister18]

While I like your bet, your making Freo your anchor for all your bets this weekend???

May God be with you this weekend.

yeah I'm in real trouble and need divine help with Freo as my anchor this week, have won 5 of the last 6 against Port including 2 of 3 at Footy Park(aami stadium). The way I'm looking at this week Freo is the value bet of the round @ $1.72 and cannot see them dropping this game. The game is also during the daytime which is a huge advantage for Freo. Freo will grind out a 4 to 5 goal win here so I'll be loading up on them.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Freo also have won last 4 against Port by an average of 47 points.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

I'm not having a go at your bet of Freo winning, just that to have one team as your anchor for all your multis is risky that's all.

Each to their own!

Upsets do happen.

I have picked Freo and have the same multi as you but if they lose it won't cost me 5% of my bank that's all I was trying to say!

 

[HurlsMeister18]

I'm not having a go at your bet of Freo winning, just that to have one team as your anchor for all your multis is risky that's all.

Each to their own!

Upsets do happen.

I have picked Freo and have the same multi as you but if they lose it won't cost me 5% of my bank that's all I was trying to say!

Who said anything about what portion of my bankroll I will be losing if they get rolled ?

If they get rolled in an upset then I will go and reload my TAB account during the week and if they win I will go to the TAB Sunday arvo and take out a big chunk of cash.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

I have picked Freo and have the same multi as you but if they lose it won't cost me 5% of my bank that's all I was trying to say!

You sound like you like a safe bet so with that multi you might want to put Adelaide in at the line instead of H2H

 

[free at last]

Considering the team that the Dockers fielded and where the game was played, they should have literally taken the GWS to the cleaners, ie by over 25 goals, when you consider their team and who they had out.

Probably the variables to consider is that Port are coming back from Darwin with the humidity being an issue up there, who knows what state they may be in!?

Kicking 2.13 in the second term stopped us from winning by 25 gls.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

Who said anything about what portion of my bankroll I will be losing if they get rolled ?

If they get rolled in an upset then I will go and reload my TAB account during the week and if they win I will go to the TAB Sunday arvo and take out a big chunk of cash.

Mate I think you are misinterpreting what I am trying to say!

Trust me I want Freo to win, as it is in one of my multi's, I will be joining in your celebrations too!!!!

Thats true I didnt realise you staked all your money you have deposited in the TAB account for this round. I just normally bet 2-5% per round of my bank, my mistake.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

You sound like you like a safe bet so with that multi you might want to put Adelaide in at the line instead of H2H

I will look at the Crows with the 4 goal handicap as an option.

This game is massive for the club and for the context of their season they are going into this game with that knowledge with the coach and assistant having been there last year, they will know the ground and players inside out.

Definitely is match of the round and definitely a 50:50 game IMO.

Crows were $2.40 at the TAB on reflection probably should have taken it with the option to hedge during the game!

 

[hazza1824]

Crows win by 25+ @ $4.90 Sportingbet

 

[Hoffy95]

Eagles, Saints, Swans, Roos, Hawks all @ the line for 26-27 bucks.

 

[Athomas]

I like it.

Richmond had their last crack at finals yesterday, and were shattered after the siren. Carlton are going to give everything they've got this weekend, because if they lose, their season is well and truly over, whereas Richmond's is already finished.

Pretty much this. We also play MCG really well, but Richmond will be physically and mentally drained from the loss on Sunday. Add in an extra day's break and returning players for Carlton (I haven't even mentioned the fact I think we are a better side) and I can't see us losing. We've won 7 of the last 8 against Richmond too?

 

[Donkson]

Not just your club, but goal kicking is just shocking atm compared to 10 years ago.

accuracy is 1% worse than it was 10 years ago (53% v 54%).

and it's almost exactly the same as it was 20 years ago.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Mate I think you are misinterpreting what I am trying to say!

Trust me I want Freo to win, as it is in one of my multi's, I will be joining in your celebrations too!!!!

Thats true I didnt realise you staked all your money you have deposited in the TAB account for this round. I just normally bet 2-5% per round of my bank, my mistake.

There is no mistake, I don't bet with a bankroll system or keep track with spreadsheets. The money in my betting account is for fun and I bet as such. If I get wiped out on the horses or the footy this week then I have money in my normal bank to be able to put more in. The money in my account is not all of my money that I have. You are trying to make it sound like I have everything I own on Freo which is simply not correct. Keep it simple and try and have some fun in your betting and go with your instincts instead of this formula and system mumbo jumbo

 

[HurlsMeister18]

N

Oh and for the record that last goal by the Tigers where the player kicked the ball for a goal of the line where they went to a video review, lol cost me a little fortune lol. Talk about drama for me!

What percent of your bankroll did you have on Richmond

 

[eastcoastcrow]

accuracy is 1% worse than it was 10 years ago (53% v 54%).

and it's almost exactly the same as it was 20 years ago.

Hmmm I would have thought differently I guess.

I thought the 4 big guns in the 90's had good accuracy - Lockett, Dunstal, Ablett and Modra.

Compared to say Cloke, Riewoldt, Franklin, Tippett, Pav

 

[eastcoastcrow]

What percent of your bankroll did you have on Richmond

lol.

I was being greedy. Knowing full well these teams have played a few close ones of late.

I backed the Roos at the line!!!! :-(

Oh and it was 1U.

 

[balmainforever]

Back on topic now.........


$4.40 for Essendon does seem slight overs.

Don't get me wrong I think the hawks will win though.

 

[ricardogp]

Wow, just witnessed the power of the moderator

I have a question... I feel that the Swans will easily put over 10 goals past the Suns, but the line is only 45 at the TAB. Seems low to me.

And given that their H2H odds are $1.06, that also seems out of whack with the line. At that H2H I would have expected the line to be closer to 60...

 

[Lensen]

What's the question?

If the line's only 45.5 at the TAB and you think it will be 60+ then you would bet on them to cover the line, wouldn't you??

There's no direct correlation between odds and the line. Some teams might be favoured to win but don't have a history of smashing teams whilst others do, so two different $1.05 teams may be 45.5 and 78.5 for instance respectively.

 

[ricardogp]

OK, I was assuming there was always a correlation, so I thought I had found some value there...

So my original (unqualified!) question: anyone else think that the Swans line is a little low? Given that it's 1v17 and Sydney's recent form I would have thought so.

 

[Sunny_]

Suns form at home has been very good, save for one game this year. Line looks about right IMO.