Preview AFL Round 19 - North Melbourne v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 7:40PM Saturday 2 August

[BlitzenTrapper]

Got tickets to this, first game at Etihad in years.

IN: Bundy, Blicavs,
OUT: Simpson, Hartman

 

[catempire]

We have rested players coming out of the bye in the past.

When ladder-wise, we could afford to. And in any event, as you pointed out, that hasn't worked too well with our record coming off the bye.

And our strongest team may not necessarily be the best-equipped team to stop North Melbourne, which is where the idea of bringing Bews in, at the expense of a tall, comes into play. Petrie and Goldstein are dangerous players, but if we are to lose this game, I think it's pretty clear that it's North's smalls that will cause the damage.

Agree and have posted so elsewhere. I just don't think it's a case of resting anyone and particularly not Mackie who is a playmaker, not a tall, in our structure.

 

[Daniel McL]

Out: Simpson, Hartman, Murdoch & GHS (extra rests)
In: Brad Ottens, Joel Corey, David Wojcinski & Peter Riccardi

 

[FredLeDeux]

The club website has given Jansen a long puff piece write-up today, sometimes a precursor to promotion. But also sometimes not.

 

[CatTricks]

We have rested players coming out of the bye in the past. And our strongest team may not necessarily be the best-equipped team to stop North Melbourne, which is where the idea of bringing Bews in, at the expense of a tall, comes into play. Petrie and Goldstein are dangerous players, but if we are to lose this game, I think it's pretty clear that it's North's smalls that will cause the damage.

Guthrie to Harvey, please. Boomer has proven very taggable over his career, but, frustratingly, not so much against us. The last time he failed to register 30 disposals against us was in 2010 and he's got five Brownlow votes from the last two games he's played against Geelong. If Dal Santo lines up at half back, I want Bartel to go to him, make him accountable, not give him an inch and hurt him with a few solid tackles. Enright needs to do the job on Thomas and we also need to be wary of Ziebell who tends to do well against us and Cunnington, who is having a big year.

I think North is built a bit like St Kilda of a few years back personally. Some very good players in their lineup, but from 15-22 it drops away a bit, talent-wise. So, we need to focus on shutting down as many of their stars as possible and make someone else beat us.

Guthrie - Harvey
Dal Santo - Bartel
Thomas - Enright/Bews

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Guthrie - Harvey
Dal Santo - Bartel
Thomas - Enright/Bews

That's what I'd be doing.

 

[catempire]

 

[romeoh]

Drop Stevie then?

 

[Lana]

Cunnington is the bloke I hope we can tag. He's such an in-and-under bull and when he's on song, he brings everyone else into the game.
I would have liked to see Hunt play as the designated tagger but he's out of favor at the moment and Guthrie gives us a bit of creativity playing his own game instead of tagging.

I am in the opposite camp, that you tag the outside mids. I see Cunnington is a similar type of player to Priddis (Correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't watched a lot of North this year), he will get his hands on the ball a lot on the inside but isn't a big danger to break through the congested area like Dangerfield would be. Tagging wont really stop him that much, he'll still be at the bottom of the pack trying to give it out to player in space. He is only effective if the players who receive it from him can use the ball cleanly.

I'd tag Harvey with Guthrie and if we had Hunt, i'd send him to Dal. Teams are lucky that Wells has missed this year with injury, they probably wanted two of them to avoid a tag each week. I remember last time we lost to them, we didn't send a tag to either wells or Harvey and they cut us to pieces rebounding from defensive 50.

 

[sarah.13]

We need our best available team V north. No need to rest players for 2 weeks unless injured.
If and when a top 4 position is secured we could rest 1 or 2 players for the Brisbane game the week before the finals

 

[JUBJUB]

Drop Stevie then?

He didn't play against them in Rd 2 last year or Rd 10 this year

 

[Bobby_]

He didn't play against them in Rd 2 last year or Rd 10 this year

neither did Kersten, Christensen or Caddy. Some handy inclusions for the re-match.

 

[nohairandfair]

hope your right but I got a feeling he'll gather around 30 touches, 7 clearances and setup quite a few goals. Just hope Scott makes the move sooner than later on one of those blokes.

For some reason the coaches elected to have Guthrie tag Gibson in the last game and allow both Harvey and Dal Santo to rack up some decent and damaging possessions. Hopefully that doesn't happen this game.

No surprises that we lost the clearances with Greenwood very dominant and also quelling a less than 100% Selwood.

We now have very close to a full list to choose from and I'm hopeful that with the break to reassess/restructure/reset, our on-ball brigade will be more effective in contested ball.

 

[candiehappy]

The club website has given Jansen a long puff piece write-up today, sometimes a precursor to promotion. But also sometimes not.

can't really see it happening. Such an important game and this close to finals.

 

[Seeds]

Stunned how every poster thinks McIntosh deserves a spot ahead of Simpson. Simpson had 60% hit out efficiency versus 20% of McIntosh. Basically Simpson was three times more effective in the ruck. That run on we got in the 3rd quarter that won us the game where we had three centre clearances in a row was caused by Simpson. Around the ground they had the same posessions (even though McIntosh had more game time).

 

[OzeSparky]

Stunned how every poster thinks McIntosh deserves a spot ahead of Simpson. Simpson had 60% hit out efficiency versus 20% of McIntosh. Basically Simpson was three times more effective in the ruck. That run on we got in the 3rd quarter that won us the game where we had three centre clearances in a row was caused by Simpson. Around the ground they had the same posessions (even though McIntosh had more game time).

True, but McIntosh usually offers more around the ground. Maybe thats what is persuading there decision.

 

[OzeSparky]

Seeing as this game is at Etihad, I think it will be a tight contest.
Murdoch will stay in.
We need speed on this deck.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Stunned how every poster thinks McIntosh deserves a spot ahead of Simpson. Simpson had 60% hit out efficiency versus 20% of McIntosh. Basically Simpson was three times more effective in the ruck. That run on we got in the 3rd quarter that won us the game where we had three centre clearances in a row was caused by Simpson. Around the ground they had the same posessions (even though McIntosh had more game time).

Those figures (quoted several times on here) may be a persuasive comparison of their performances last week if we knew what was meant by "hit out efficiency", ie what it measures.
If it's simply hit outs to advantage, it has little value unless we also know their respective hit out to disadvantage figures, as well as the respective number of ball-ups/throw-ins contested by each of them.
I don't say you're wrong about Simpson being better last week, simply that those figures don't advance the argument unless we know what they mean.
In addition, of course, the MC may want to take into account factors other than a single game's performances. I know you don't think so, but they may think McIntosh has been better over the season, they may think he's more versatile, they may think a McIntosh-Blicavs combo has been and will be better in the last quarters of games, they may consider the "North Melbourne - McIntosh" factor.
And, of course, Scott said last week they'll be having another look at the 2-biggies set-up, so they may both play again next game anyway.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Seeing as this game is at Etihad, I think it will be a tight contest.
Murdoch will stay in.
We need speed on this deck.

The MC is, obviously, utterly committed to Murdoch both as a player and as part of the team structure.
It is very unlikely that they'll drop him now, unless there is a marked deterioration in his performances.
Many people think there has been such a drop-off, but a check of his season's stats doesn't seem to show this; in fact, they seem to show a quite remarkable level of consistency over the season - uninspiring consistency, but still consistency.
And, as I said earlier, he's the 22nd-best player in the team, and in the larger scheme of things the performances of the 22nd-best player actually matter about once in 1000 games (give or take).

 

[Partridge]

no Johnson or Caddy in the middle though. We had Sheringham and Stringer who are two speedsters so there was some balance in that regard.
Stokes, Caddy, Johnson, Horlin-Smith is on the slow slide. I'd look at playing one as the sub when the game is tight and there's more tired bodies running around.
We have seen how ordinary we can look at Etihad Stadium if we don't have a good assortment of speedsters present.

Johnson is someone who will certainly win more clearances, Caddy won't. This year he's averaging 2 clearances a game - less than Hamish McIntosh.

 

[CatTricks]

I am in the opposite camp, that you tag the outside mids. I see Cunnington is a similar type of player to Priddis (Correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't watched a lot of North this year), he will get his hands on the ball a lot on the inside but isn't a big danger to break through the congested area like Dangerfield would be. Tagging wont really stop him that much, he'll still be at the bottom of the pack trying to give it out to player in space. He is only effective if the players who receive it from him can use the ball cleanly.

I'd tag Harvey with Guthrie and if we had Hunt, i'd send him to Dal. Teams are lucky that Wells has missed this year with injury, they probably wanted two of them to avoid a tag each week. I remember last time we lost to them, we didn't send a tag to either wells or Harvey and they cut us to pieces rebounding from defensive 50.

Let Horlo go head to head with Cunnington and crack in at every contest. Make him earn it.

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

Johnson is someone who will certainly win more clearances, Caddy won't. This year he's averaging 2 clearances a game - less than Hamish McIntosh.

Yeah, I don't think we'd be losing much by giving Caddy a spell in the VFL for Jansen. Possibly gaining a bit.

I still believe Caddy will become a very good player for us and looked on track during the pre-season and early on but that injury has held him back considerably. I think he could have somewhat of a breakout next year with an injury free run between now and then but finding some form and confidence in the VFL while giving Jansen his deserved opportunity would probably do more good than harm, for both.

 

[Partridge]

Stunned how every poster thinks McIntosh deserves a spot ahead of Simpson. Simpson had 60% hit out efficiency versus 20% of McIntosh. Basically Simpson was three times more effective in the ruck. That run on we got in the 3rd quarter that won us the game where we had three centre clearances in a row was caused by Simpson. Around the ground they had the same posessions (even though McIntosh had more game time).

Simpson also kicked a goal too, which was handy. No doubt he needs to get a lot more of the ball around the ground. But last week McIntosh wasn't any better, and it's valid to mention that.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I think some have been lulled into a false sense of security visa ve NM. When we played them at Simonds earlier this year we won purely on the effort of the first quarter and a half. NM came back at us after that, and won the second half easily, but our lead was too great. I felt that if that game had of gone for another twenty minutes NM would have caught of us and won. So this game next week at Etihad isn't going to be an easy game.

 

[vinum coupe]

There's a huge amount of optimism on the board at the moment Blakey.
It could be from intellect, or it might just be hope.